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Slides from Tony MartinVegue's webinar for the FAIR Institute on May 11, 2018
"Crowdsourced Probability Estimates: A Field Guide"
Abstract:
Probability estimates are the cornerstone of any good risk assessment in which data is sparse or expensive to come by, and are often thought of as one of the best ways to supplement existing information with subject matter expertise. Many risk analysts, however, can run into issues when trying to integrate the opinions of many subject matter experts into a risk management program. Some of these problems are: seemingly contradictory probability estimates, bias that can creep into results and the challenge of collecting and using large amounts of data.
This talk covers:
Building a program within a company to crowdsource probability estimates from a varied group of subject matter experts
Controlling for bias
Weeding out nonexperts
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