NASA, NOAA, JCOMMOPS, FNMOC, CRT, URK




                                        Keith Alverson
                         ...
Outline of this talk

1. What is GOOS
2. Some lessons learned.
3. Developing Arctic and Southern Ocean
   regional observi...
GOOS provides

 • International and intergovernmental
   coordination of sustained ocean observations
 • A platform for th...
GOOS is designed to

  • Monitor and better understand climate
  • Improve weather and climate prediction
  • Provide ocea...
GOOS works in partnership with:

IOC, UNEP, WMO and ICSU (Sponsored by)
GEO, CEOS, WIGOS… (Member of)
JCOMM, IODE, GCOS, W...
GOOS is comprised of:
• A climate module
  The GOOS climate module is the ocean component of the
  Global Climate Observin...
Major Accomplishments to date include:

 1. Global GOOS. The open ocean observing system
    for climate is approximately ...
The ARGO array of profiling floats from 2003 to 2006 -
successful evolution of a pilot project
> 3000 Floats




The Argo network has achieved its initial design target.
The Argo network has achieved its initial desig...
Degree of completion of the initial design targets for the climate
module of the Global Ocean Observing System as of Septe...
Outline of this talk

1. What is GOOS
2. Some lessons learned
3. Developing Arctic and Southern Ocean
   regional observin...
Upper-Ocean “cooling”


                                 Cooling!!!




                                2003 to 2005
     ...
Changing Ocean Observing System




      Latitud                           Year
      e
 Technology changes and bias issu...
Some Lessons Learned …




- Thompson et al, 2008: spurious 1945 global temperature
reconstruction drop from UK’s postwar ...
Changing Ocean Observing System




                           Forest and Reynolds, Nature,
Two
different
Reputable
Arctic Sea
Ice Extent
Anomaly
Analyses
Degree of completion of the initial design targets for the climate
module of the Global Ocean Observing System as of Septe...
Lessons learned from ocean climate
monitoring …
Develop sustained and integrated national ocean
  observing commitments
Na...
WHY develop SAON and SOOS?
Alverson EOS, 89:39, 2008
Implementing Coastal and Regional GOOS
                                  SAON




                        SOOS

1st GOOS R...
Observing climate change …
… Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems is:
substantial, global, but not climate dominated




           Halpern et al, Scien...
Operational near real time data stream from the Arctic (left) and
Southern (right) ocean components of the Global Ocean
Ob...
Near real time reporting tide gauges monitoring sea level globally
as part of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS...
Prudhoe Bay near real-time tide gauge on September 23, 2008
at 15h30 GMT as captured by the IOC sea level station
monitori...
Planned research vessel cruises contained in the POGO
database in late September 2008. Of the four cruises indicated
four ...
Predictions require monitoring



                                 ?
WHAT existing elements might be brought
  together as an initial system?




Bremen, 1-3 October 2007.
St. Petersburg, 5-7...
Stockholm, 12-14 November 2007
Alberta, 9-11 April 2008 - Engage Governments
St. Petersburg, 7 July 2008 - Russian Communi...
Arctic Council Salekhard Declaration 2006
”Urge all Member countries to maintain and extend long term monitoring
of change...
Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems:
influences nonlinear ecosystem dynamics




           Anderson et al, Nature, 452: 835...
Kiribati creates world's largest marine reserve
             (14 Feb 2008, Reuters)




Kiribati says it needs more money ...
Higher ocean CO2 leads to Acidification.




                            www.ocean-acidification.net




                 ...
How will ecosystems be affected?
Developing country net exports of commodities




             Source: Emerson (2005)
Fish Trade flows, 2003 (in US$ billions)




 Developed                   Developing




 Developed                  Devel...
WHAT existing elements might be brought
together as an initial system?

     Oxygen sensors on Argo float array

     OTN ...
Continuous Plankton Recorder
       75 year record!
Ocean Color
• IOCCG, CholorGIN, Antares, SAFARI…
CoML and OBIS




                   Observation and population
                   data for all species of the tuna
      ...
HOW might governance and political
   commitments be enabled?
          GEO-BON?
           I-GOOS?
             CBD?
    ...
A multi-user, multi purpose system




Alverson, Nature, 434:19-20, 2005
Bridge the research-operational divide
   “A comprehensive ocean observing system simply
   cannot exist without the full ...
Outreach and Communication
No lack of high profile public
interest stories:
Global Warming
Sea level Rise
Red Tides
Pacifi...
Outreach: Better engage governments, the
 research community and the private sector.




 IAPSO/IAMAS/IACS Joint Assembly,...
Outreach: Better use of the web
Sustain and Integrate

• Avoid being everything for everyone!
• Synergy can be negative. Incentivize!
• GEOSS? WIGOS? SAON...
Where are the Gaps in GOOS?
~ 40% of the planned in-situ GOOS climate network ($)
Polar regions and deep ocean (Technology development, $)
Developing ...
Near real time reporting tide gauges monitoring sea level globally
as part of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS...
Implementation by nations




       UK NTSLF




                            JCOMM OPA, NOAA/OCO
Planned research vessel cruises contained in the POGO
database in late September 2008. Of the four cruises indicated
four ...
Adoption by Governments, then …

  Past UNESCO/IOC
  Standards
 Practical salinity scale 1978 and the international equati...
Who will needs to adopt the new equation of
state for seawater?
     Researchers. Including individual data
     collector...
Standards are not ideal, nor for everyone …
Adoption by the Scientific Community
  Pathway to Adoption
  ① IAPSO/SCOR Working Group WG 127 on
    thermodynamics and e...
Adoption by Industry

   Industry might either lead or follow
researchers or governments
   The bottom line will always be...
Adoption by Governments, and now…
  Uptake by global operational
  programs
Adoption by Governments
  Roadmap to Adoption




  ① Call for comment by relevant, standing IOC expert groups
    from Oc...
Adoption by Governments

  Potential Benefits
    ① An intergovernmental agreement will
       help catalyze implementatio...
How to promote…


      White paper and presentation at OceanObs09
    (www.oceanobs09.net), 21-25 September 2009 ?

     ...
HOW might commitments be enabled?

          GEO? WIGOS?
      IOC/WMO/UNEP/ICSU?
   Regional: GRAs? Arctic Council?
   UN...
Goos09talk
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Goos09talk

  1. 1. NASA, NOAA, JCOMMOPS, FNMOC, CRT, URK Keith Alverson Ocean Observations and Services Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO
  2. 2. Outline of this talk 1. What is GOOS 2. Some lessons learned. 3. Developing Arctic and Southern Ocean regional observing systems 4. Developing a biological module 5. Updating the Equation of State for Seawater 6. Sustaining GOOS
  3. 3. GOOS provides • International and intergovernmental coordination of sustained ocean observations • A platform for the generation of oceanographic products and services • A forum for interaction between research, operational, and user communities
  4. 4. GOOS is designed to • Monitor and better understand climate • Improve weather and climate prediction • Provide ocean forecasts • Improve management of marine and coastal ecosystems and resources • Mitigate damage from natural hazards and pollution • Protect life and property on coasts and at sea • Enable scientific research
  5. 5. GOOS works in partnership with: IOC, UNEP, WMO and ICSU (Sponsored by) GEO, CEOS, WIGOS… (Member of) JCOMM, IODE, GCOS, WCRP (partner programs at IOC) SCOR, POGO, ICES, PICES, IASC, SCAR, GEOSS, GCOS, GTOS, Scientific Unions, National Agencies (external cooperation) Argo, GLOSS, DBCP, OTN, Regional Alliances (provide contributions to)
  6. 6. GOOS is comprised of: • A climate module The GOOS climate module is the ocean component of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Advised by the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (OOPC) Implemented by member states usually cooperating through the Joint WMO-IOC Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) • A coastal module Advised by a Panel on Integrated Coastal Observations (PICO) Implemented by member states usually cooperating through GOOS regional alliances. • Pilot Projects eg. Arctic, Southern Ocean, Ocean Tracking Network ...
  7. 7. Major Accomplishments to date include: 1. Global GOOS. The open ocean observing system for climate is approximately 60% complete. Understanding of global climate change has been substantially enhanced. 2. Coastal GOOS. The coastal ocean observing system strategy and implementation plans are approved. National coastal zone management programs have benefitted from sharing best practices. 3. Societal Benefits. Relevant components of the GOOS are used for operational hazard warnings.
  8. 8. The ARGO array of profiling floats from 2003 to 2006 - successful evolution of a pilot project
  9. 9. > 3000 Floats The Argo network has achieved its initial design target. The Argo network has achieved its initial design target. Sustaining the network remains a major challenge. Sustaining the network remains a major challenge.
  10. 10. Degree of completion of the initial design targets for the climate module of the Global Ocean Observing System as of September 2008 as reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  11. 11. Outline of this talk 1. What is GOOS 2. Some lessons learned 3. Developing Arctic and Southern Ocean regional observing systems 4. Developing a biological module 5. Updating the Equation of State for Seawater 6. Sustaining GOOS
  12. 12. Upper-Ocean “cooling” Cooling!!! 2003 to 2005 cooling: -1.0 ± 0.33 W/m2 (Averaged over Earth’s surface) from Lyman et al. (GRL, 2006)
  13. 13. Changing Ocean Observing System Latitud Year e Technology changes and bias issues are now being recognised – - warm bias in XBT’s (Gouretski and Koltermann, GRL 2007) - ‘spurious’ recent upper ocean cooling (Lyman et al, GRL 2006) Wijffels et al, in press 2008
  14. 14. Some Lessons Learned … - Thompson et al, 2008: spurious 1945 global temperature reconstruction drop from UK’s postwar resumption of uninsulated bucket SST measurements. Thompson et al, Nature, 2008
  15. 15. Changing Ocean Observing System Forest and Reynolds, Nature,
  16. 16. Two different Reputable Arctic Sea Ice Extent Anomaly Analyses
  17. 17. Degree of completion of the initial design targets for the climate module of the Global Ocean Observing System as of September 2008 as reported to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
  18. 18. Lessons learned from ocean climate monitoring … Develop sustained and integrated national ocean observing commitments National contributions and commitments were confirmed at the Intergovernmental Committee for GOOS (I- GOOS) meeting June, 2007, UNESCO/IOC headquarters, Paris … But governmental engagement and willingness to commit multilaterally must be strengthened. Alverson and Baker, Science, 314:1657, 2006
  19. 19. WHY develop SAON and SOOS?
  20. 20. Alverson EOS, 89:39, 2008
  21. 21. Implementing Coastal and Regional GOOS SAON SOOS 1st GOOS Regional Forum, Athens, Greece, 2002 2nd GOOS Regional Forum, Nadi, Fiji, 2004 3rd GOOS Regional Forum, Cape Town, S. Africa, 2006 4th GRA Forum, Guayaquil, Ecuador, November, 2008
  22. 22. Observing climate change …
  23. 23. … Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems is: substantial, global, but not climate dominated Halpern et al, Science, 319: 948-52, 2008
  24. 24. Operational near real time data stream from the Arctic (left) and Southern (right) ocean components of the Global Ocean Observing System reported over the WMO Global Telecommunication Network in August 2008.
  25. 25. Near real time reporting tide gauges monitoring sea level globally as part of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) on September 23, 2008 at 15h30 GMT.
  26. 26. Prudhoe Bay near real-time tide gauge on September 23, 2008 at 15h30 GMT as captured by the IOC sea level station monitoring facility.
  27. 27. Planned research vessel cruises contained in the POGO database in late September 2008. Of the four cruises indicated four had already been completed and one was underway.
  28. 28. Predictions require monitoring ?
  29. 29. WHAT existing elements might be brought together as an initial system? Bremen, 1-3 October 2007. St. Petersburg, 5-7 July 2008.
  30. 30. Stockholm, 12-14 November 2007 Alberta, 9-11 April 2008 - Engage Governments St. Petersburg, 7 July 2008 - Russian Community Helsinki, 15-17 October 2008 - Final Plan
  31. 31. Arctic Council Salekhard Declaration 2006 ”Urge all Member countries to maintain and extend long term monitoring of change in all parts of the Arctic, and request AMAP to cooperate with other AC Working Groups, IASC and other partners in efforts to create a coordinated Arctic Observing network that meets identified societal needs” IOC Executive Council 2008 “GOOS should become engaged with the Southern Ocean Observing System, the Sustained Arctic Observing Network and Arctic ROOS, with a view to creating sustained polar observing systems which will grow out of the successful International Polar Year activities…the Executive Council decided that consideration of the legacies of the IPY and IYPE would be put on the Provisional Agenda of the 25th Session of IOC Assembly (2009)”
  32. 32. Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems: influences nonlinear ecosystem dynamics Anderson et al, Nature, 452: 835-39, 2008 (this figure from Stenseth and Rouyer, N&V, ibid)
  33. 33. Kiribati creates world's largest marine reserve (14 Feb 2008, Reuters) Kiribati says it needs more money to pay for surveillance against illegal fishing as well as develop a trust fund, possibly as large as $100 million, to pay for running costs and compensate the government for lost income from commercial fishing licenses.
  34. 34. Higher ocean CO2 leads to Acidification. www.ocean-acidification.net By the end of this century, if concentrations of CO2 continue to rise exponentially, we may expect to see changes in pH that are three times greater and 100 times faster than those experienced during the transitions from glacial to interglacial periods. How ecosystems will be affected is unknown.
  35. 35. How will ecosystems be affected?
  36. 36. Developing country net exports of commodities Source: Emerson (2005)
  37. 37. Fish Trade flows, 2003 (in US$ billions) Developed Developing Developed Developing Source: Emerson (2005)
  38. 38. WHAT existing elements might be brought together as an initial system? Oxygen sensors on Argo float array OTN Arrays and Partner Institutions
  39. 39. Continuous Plankton Recorder 75 year record!
  40. 40. Ocean Color • IOCCG, CholorGIN, Antares, SAFARI…
  41. 41. CoML and OBIS Observation and population data for all species of the tuna genus Thunnus mapped on a global scale. (Ocean Biogeographic Information System - OBIS) CoML project map
  42. 42. HOW might governance and political commitments be enabled? GEO-BON? I-GOOS? CBD? GRAME?
  43. 43. A multi-user, multi purpose system Alverson, Nature, 434:19-20, 2005
  44. 44. Bridge the research-operational divide “A comprehensive ocean observing system simply cannot exist without the full engagement of the oceanographic research community” • improve deployment opportunities for autonomous platforms (eg. Argo, drifters) • facilitate data availability, archiving •Ensure high quality ‘research’ data contributes to the sustained data flow of GOOS Alverson, IOC Annual Report, 38-39, 2005
  45. 45. Outreach and Communication No lack of high profile public interest stories: Global Warming Sea level Rise Red Tides Pacific Garbage Gyres Ocean Acidification Fisheries Collapses
  46. 46. Outreach: Better engage governments, the research community and the private sector. IAPSO/IAMAS/IACS Joint Assembly, Montreal 19-29 July, 2009 Session J01 – Observations of High Latitude Climate Change UNFCCC SBSTA (Bonn, 1-12 June, 2009) and COP (Copenhagen, 1-12 December, 2009). OceanObs’09 21-25 September, 2009. Venice, Italy
  47. 47. Outreach: Better use of the web
  48. 48. Sustain and Integrate • Avoid being everything for everyone! • Synergy can be negative. Incentivize! • GEOSS? WIGOS? SAON? • UNFCCC COP ? UNESCO Convention?
  49. 49. Where are the Gaps in GOOS?
  50. 50. ~ 40% of the planned in-situ GOOS climate network ($) Polar regions and deep ocean (Technology development, $) Developing countries (Capacity building, $) Non-physical variables (Users, Technology development, $) Integrated data products (Users, $) Real time operations (Technology development, $) Sustainability - eg ARGO network, Satellite altimeters ($) Integration with other systems (Users)
  51. 51. Near real time reporting tide gauges monitoring sea level globally as part of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) on September 23, 2008 at 15h30 GMT (www.vliz.be/gauges/map.php).
  52. 52. Implementation by nations UK NTSLF JCOMM OPA, NOAA/OCO
  53. 53. Planned research vessel cruises contained in the POGO database in late September 2008. Of the four cruises indicated four had already been completed and one was underway.
  54. 54. Adoption by Governments, then … Past UNESCO/IOC Standards Practical salinity scale 1978 and the international equation of 1981 state of seawater 1980. Algorithms for computation of fundamental properties of 1983 seawater Salinity and density of seawater: Tables for high salinities (42- 1991 50)
  55. 55. Who will needs to adopt the new equation of state for seawater? Researchers. Including individual data collectors and modelers in physical, chemical and biological oceanography as well as climatologists. Also scientific unions. Minimal United Nations (IOC) role. Industry. A broad range of companies including data collectors and modelers. Could potentially effect manufacturers of salinity measuring devices. Minimal United Nations (IOC) role. Governments. Including national oceanographic, environmental, fisheries and research agencies as well as navies. Lead United Nations (IOC) role.
  56. 56. Standards are not ideal, nor for everyone …
  57. 57. Adoption by the Scientific Community Pathway to Adoption ① IAPSO/SCOR Working Group WG 127 on thermodynamics and equation of state of report. ② Peer reviewed publications. ③ Endorsement of scientific unions such as SCOR, IAPSO, AGU Ocean Sciences, IAPWS, ... ④ Community uptake. “Best Practices” or “Guidelines” are more palatable in some research communities (experience of carbon community) than “Standards” Potential Concerns ① Scientists don’t like to fix anything that isn’t clearly broken. ② Different adoption tasks, and hence different responses, are likely from Data vs Modeling communities and from physical vs chemical oceanographers, from climatologists vs process researchers.
  58. 58. Adoption by Industry Industry might either lead or follow researchers or governments The bottom line will always be profit A panoply of industries including offshore drilling, aquaculture and coastal zone management. If a new absolute salinity unit (in g/kg) replaces the existing conductivity based unit, manufacturers of CTD’s, Argo floats, Marine mammal tags, would be potentially effected.
  59. 59. Adoption by Governments, and now… Uptake by global operational programs
  60. 60. Adoption by Governments Roadmap to Adoption ① Call for comment by relevant, standing IOC expert groups from October to December 2008. ② Assuming no major objections, IOC secretariat to work with WG 127, leaders of IOC subsidiary bodies and interested Member States to prepare a Draft Resolution by 4/2009. ③ IOC Member States to consider and (hopefully) resolve to adopt the new equation of state 6/2009 ④ Leaders of WG 127 to write the IOC technical manual and web based server for codes/algorithms by 1 January 2010. ⑤ IOC Secretariat publishes, distributes to Member States,
  61. 61. Adoption by Governments Potential Benefits ① An intergovernmental agreement will help catalyze implementation by some national ocean services. ② A resolution by IOC/UNESCO, the body that adopted the currently used equation of state, will help clarify that the new one Potential Concerns the old one. formally replaces ① IOC Assembly Members don’t represent all relevant Government Agencies. This is a national level concern that only individual governments must deal with. ② IOC Resolutions are not binding, so there is no guarantee that Members will follow through with their resolve. This is true for many modern multilateral organizations
  62. 62. How to promote… White paper and presentation at OceanObs09 (www.oceanobs09.net), 21-25 September 2009 ? Relevant websites and mailing lists ? Poster/Display at major meetings (AGU, OS, IAPSO, etc) ?
  63. 63. HOW might commitments be enabled? GEO? WIGOS? IOC/WMO/UNEP/ICSU? Regional: GRAs? Arctic Council? UNEP regional seas conventions?

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