SlideShare a Scribd company logo
ADVERTISING IN 2020an imperfect talk to the IPA 44 Club, 24 January 2011 Tom Morton Chief Strategy Officer, Publicis UK @tommorton
If you want to make a fool of someone, ask him to predict the future
If you want to make a tit of someone, get him to talk about the future. I’ve been reading an article from 2000 about how TV advertising would work in 2010. We should have been looking forward to: OnDigital, Telewest, and Carlton Interactive dominating the industry Online shopping where you point your remote at a product in a programme and buy it.  People wanting their web browsing interrupted by TV ads.   I won’t talk too much about the specifics of what the industry will look like.   Instead I’ll focus on what’s going to shape the industry.   And I’ll suggest three coping strategies for getting to 2020.
Most of what we need for the future is here,   it’s just in the wrong place
Most of what we need is here, but it’s in the wrong places. We’ve got emerging talent and strong relationships.  Most of the emerging talents are in startups; most of the relationships and the cash that comes with them are in the networks We’re got the public interacting with brands.  We’re asking the public to like our Facebook pages and shoot our ads when we should be asking them to collaborate on our products  We’ve got behaviour experts.  Media planners are great at understanding audience behaviour, but they’ve kept that expertise and their business in the corner of paid-form media We’ve got a wealth of real-time data based on people’s real purchases and behaviour and movements.  It’s just stuck in different industries - buying on Dunhumby, searching on Google, sharing on Facebook, moving on Vodafone, viewing on Sky – not at fingertips of the comms industry.  We’ve got people who build interest and usability in to products, but they’re in engineering not marketing.  As IBM say,  “the interface is the product”, and that will be the case for more industries in future. We should have these people baking that interest and usability in to all products We have incredible content makers, from the socially important Wikileaks expose to the new Caribou album.  They’re just dependent on declining media to pay for it
We need to put the industry’s  resources on castors
We need to put the industry’s resources on castors, so they can be moved next to where they are needed.    The challenge of the next ten years consists of reassembling what we’ve got in order to make something useful.  
A Blade Runner future,  brought to us by Cillit Bang
The shape of media will determine the shape of advertising A lot of our industry will depend on how much high quality content remains ad funded.Lots of the most must-see content will go on to subscription – HBO in the States, premiership football, iTunes, News Corp papers on iPad.  The issue is what remains.  We could have technologically-boosted outdoor and must-see live TV to work with, or we could have cheap ad breaks in crappy rerun channels Social media will remain a parallel universe – central to how people live their lives, where people set the rules and where brands will need to learn some manners We’ll have a whole bunch of new technologies that could make people’s lives better or could just be a mechanized form of interruption: more screens on which to assault people with offers.  They’ll give advertising a bad name until they settle down Most technologies don’t find their best use in their first years of life. True of gaming, dot com, user-generated content, foursquare.  We’ve seen how MySpace has more or less died under the weight of too much interruptive advertising.  We have to hope that doesn’t happen to the public space Russell Davies wrote about the worst case scenario: if good content doesn’t need advertising, and advertisers find more low-rent technologies to carry messages, we’ll be living in a Blade Runner world brought to us by Cillit Bang.
The old world will soldier on until it dies on its feet
The old world will soldier on, blocking the progress of the new, until it dies on its feet:  Future campaigns with many components and constant evolution are labour intensive.  The cost is fees and production not media; clients still budget on spending more on media than on creative.  Many agencies will have a hard time making modern campaigns at a loss.  Testing methods like Ipsos that have nothing to do with modern audience behavior will linger they look familiar & certain  This stuff has completely outlived its usefulness; it’s only when it falls apart that its replacement will become the standard And the economics of advertising will mean that advertising won’t change as fast as we hope  Still a cash generative business: can generate 15%-20% margin every year with little capital expenditure. Business owners will be careful of tampering with that Shareholders more impressed by separate digital business units than by digitally-literate ad agencies Banners have a click through rate of 0.1%; YouTube’s algorithms assume that if I’m watching the Rolling Stones I’m in the market for paving stones but they’ll probably continue for as long as there’s a ton of space to fill and they’re almost free to run Company owners will wait until a business model is at its terminal stages – no prospect of making any money in the future - before they do something radical with it
We’ll build the new world  on top of the old one
We’ll build the new world on top of the old one   The analogy comes from urban planning & a book called The Death And Life Of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs.  Fifty years ago she saw town planners were trying to flatten or bypass 19th century cities to build modern utopias. She said with a complicated connected system like a city, you don’t dismantle the old.  You build the new alongside it.   It’s the same with our industry.  
Always follow the economics
To prep for the future, always follow the economics They’ll tell you what is viable, and what’s unsupportable.  What does this cost to make, what influence does it buy? Holding companies have no bias to analogue or digital or media or creative. They’ll put money in to what is profitable; what is likely to grow. For example, newspapers are dead in the US where advertising accounts for seven eights revenue; less so in Britain where it’s half.  And it’s not economic to create special build campaigns for every site – the audience size doesn’t justify the outlay
Always follow the people
Always follow the people Because the ultimate test of our industry is our ability to understand and influence the public. It will help you to make sense of the potential of new technology.  See how people fell on the stats about the number of subscribers to the Times online.   It’s why ‘test and learn’ is so important.  You have to follow what people actually do with your new type of campaign otherwise it’s not a test; it’s a prank.  Experiments have hypotheses and results and conclusions, they’re more than tinkering. The growing volume of real-time audience data is going to define our industry.  Go seek the truth there.  Whoever masters that and makes it useful will rise to the top.
Punt, don’t plan
Punt, don’t plan We can’t be sure exactly when changes will occur, or how big they will be.  Our industry is moving from an industrial model to a bespoke model.  Each piece of activity will have a different shape.     That’s a future where it’s better to make punts than plans. The future’s going to come from a series of experiments: little ventures with new technology and new partners and new ways of working Learn like every other creative and technology business does: prototype stuff, test and learn. Learn by doing. A friend of mine left advertising to work at Google.  He said it’s an impossible errand to aim to change the entire industry.  His mantra:  “Don’t change it, hack it.”
Hack  Experiment Learn Punt
Hack. Experiment. Learn. Punt.   Yes, that does spell HELP.  And acronyms are cheesy. But these are what creative, entrepreneurial thinkers have always done.  Good luck

More Related Content

What's hot

The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015
The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015
The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015Brian Solis
 
Camera operator pro forma
Camera operator pro formaCamera operator pro forma
Camera operator pro formaDaniel Thompson
 
Socialize the Enterprise
Socialize the EnterpriseSocialize the Enterprise
Socialize the EnterpriseOgilvy
 
The Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: Women
The Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: WomenThe Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: Women
The Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: WomenGraham Brown
 
Online Reputation Management on Steroids
Online Reputation Management on SteroidsOnline Reputation Management on Steroids
Online Reputation Management on SteroidsStefanos Karagos
 
New rules for a new reality
New rules for a new realityNew rules for a new reality
New rules for a new realityFITCH
 
Cannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to follow
Cannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to followCannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to follow
Cannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to followBahia Nar
 
Aprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail Experiences
Aprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail ExperiencesAprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail Experiences
Aprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail ExperiencesFITCH
 
Connecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannes
Connecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannesConnecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannes
Connecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannesOgilvy
 
A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018
A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018
A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018Canvas8
 
#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLions
#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLions#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLions
#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLionsOgilvy
 
Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018
Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018
Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018emmersons1
 
Cannes Lions 2017 Highlights
Cannes Lions 2017 HighlightsCannes Lions 2017 Highlights
Cannes Lions 2017 HighlightsIlker Ergen
 
Cannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of Creativity
Cannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of CreativityCannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of Creativity
Cannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of CreativityHavas
 
Gen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attention
Gen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attentionGen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attention
Gen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attentionFITCH
 
Content Marketing Like a Real Company
Content Marketing Like a Real CompanyContent Marketing Like a Real Company
Content Marketing Like a Real CompanyMichael King
 

What's hot (20)

The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015
The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015
The Future of Digital Music and Artistry - Brian Solis at Midem 2015
 
Camera operator pro forma
Camera operator pro formaCamera operator pro forma
Camera operator pro forma
 
YaleTech_2016
YaleTech_2016YaleTech_2016
YaleTech_2016
 
Socialize the Enterprise
Socialize the EnterpriseSocialize the Enterprise
Socialize the Enterprise
 
The Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: Women
The Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: WomenThe Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: Women
The Elephant in the Mobile Industry’s Room: Women
 
Online Reputation Management on Steroids
Online Reputation Management on SteroidsOnline Reputation Management on Steroids
Online Reputation Management on Steroids
 
New rules for a new reality
New rules for a new realityNew rules for a new reality
New rules for a new reality
 
Cannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to follow
Cannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to followCannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to follow
Cannes Lions 2017: 6 trends to follow
 
Aprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail Experiences
Aprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail ExperiencesAprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail Experiences
Aprons and Algorithms - The Future of Retail Experiences
 
Connecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannes
Connecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannesConnecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannes
Connecting the Dots with @LinkedIn #CannesLions / #OgilvyCannes
 
A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018
A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018
A behavioural breakdown of 8 winning campaigns from Cannes Lion 2018
 
#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLions
#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLions#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLions
#OgilvyCannes 2014 Social Impact Report at #CannesLions
 
Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018
Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018
Get Advertising Smart - Cannes Lions 2018
 
Cannes Lions 2017 Highlights
Cannes Lions 2017 HighlightsCannes Lions 2017 Highlights
Cannes Lions 2017 Highlights
 
Prosumer
ProsumerProsumer
Prosumer
 
Cannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of Creativity
Cannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of CreativityCannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of Creativity
Cannes 2018: Six Takeaways from the Festival of Creativity
 
Gen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attention
Gen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attentionGen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attention
Gen Z Shopping: Designing retail for the constant state of partial attention
 
Content Marketing Like a Real Company
Content Marketing Like a Real CompanyContent Marketing Like a Real Company
Content Marketing Like a Real Company
 
Aug1 pres2
Aug1 pres2Aug1 pres2
Aug1 pres2
 
2015 Social Media Trends - GCAA
2015 Social Media Trends - GCAA2015 Social Media Trends - GCAA
2015 Social Media Trends - GCAA
 

Viewers also liked

A Hunter's Guide To BS-Free Insights
A Hunter's Guide To BS-Free InsightsA Hunter's Guide To BS-Free Insights
A Hunter's Guide To BS-Free InsightsTom Morton
 
Why a great young planner is always looking for trouble
Why a great young planner is always looking for troubleWhy a great young planner is always looking for trouble
Why a great young planner is always looking for troubleRogier Bikker
 
The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)
The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)
The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)leemaicon
 
The planner's book of things to make
The planner's book of things to makeThe planner's book of things to make
The planner's book of things to makeJohn V Willshire
 
Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)
Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)
Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)Wendy Sung
 
The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.
The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.
The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.Guy Gouldavis
 

Viewers also liked (6)

A Hunter's Guide To BS-Free Insights
A Hunter's Guide To BS-Free InsightsA Hunter's Guide To BS-Free Insights
A Hunter's Guide To BS-Free Insights
 
Why a great young planner is always looking for trouble
Why a great young planner is always looking for troubleWhy a great young planner is always looking for trouble
Why a great young planner is always looking for trouble
 
The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)
The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)
The Mysterious Big Idea (idea safari)
 
The planner's book of things to make
The planner's book of things to makeThe planner's book of things to make
The planner's book of things to make
 
Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)
Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)
Mind of a Planner (Survey Results)
 
The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.
The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.
The What, How & Why Of Account Planning.
 

Similar to Advertising in 2020, tom morton's ipa talk, 24 january 2011

KDM White Paper - Content Marketing
KDM White Paper - Content MarketingKDM White Paper - Content Marketing
KDM White Paper - Content MarketingKarnika E. Yashwant
 
Web summit summary
Web summit summaryWeb summit summary
Web summit summaryTeviTuakli
 
Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015
Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015
Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015Young & Rubicam
 
NATIVE VML June 2016 Trends Report
NATIVE VML June 2016 Trends ReportNATIVE VML June 2016 Trends Report
NATIVE VML June 2016 Trends ReportVML South Africa
 
Excerpt smart customers
Excerpt smart customersExcerpt smart customers
Excerpt smart customersJamal Nazeer
 
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510DianeCimine
 
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510DianeCimine
 
Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels
Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels
Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels Can J. Ogan
 
Assignment 2 T1.pdf
Assignment 2 T1.pdfAssignment 2 T1.pdf
Assignment 2 T1.pdfbillymooney1
 
Digital marketing trends 2014
Digital marketing trends 2014Digital marketing trends 2014
Digital marketing trends 2014Paul Gilbert
 
The Future Of [Social] Media
The Future Of [Social] MediaThe Future Of [Social] Media
The Future Of [Social] MediaGraeme Wood
 
Marketing Trends To Watch
Marketing Trends To WatchMarketing Trends To Watch
Marketing Trends To WatchScott Brandon
 
8 Digital trends to follow for 2016
8 Digital trends to follow for 20168 Digital trends to follow for 2016
8 Digital trends to follow for 2016Bahia Nar
 
Crisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBK
Crisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBKCrisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBK
Crisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBKNikolay Belousov
 
A look at client-agency relationships.
A look at client-agency relationships. A look at client-agency relationships.
A look at client-agency relationships. Mark Linder
 
The evolution of client-agency relationships
The evolution of client-agency relationshipsThe evolution of client-agency relationships
The evolution of client-agency relationshipsMark Linder
 

Similar to Advertising in 2020, tom morton's ipa talk, 24 january 2011 (20)

Razorfish
RazorfishRazorfish
Razorfish
 
KDM White Paper - Content Marketing
KDM White Paper - Content MarketingKDM White Paper - Content Marketing
KDM White Paper - Content Marketing
 
Socialnetworking
SocialnetworkingSocialnetworking
Socialnetworking
 
Web summit summary
Web summit summaryWeb summit summary
Web summit summary
 
Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015
Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015
Y&R: 10 Snapshots from SXSWi 2015
 
NATIVE VML June 2016 Trends Report
NATIVE VML June 2016 Trends ReportNATIVE VML June 2016 Trends Report
NATIVE VML June 2016 Trends Report
 
Excerpt smart customers
Excerpt smart customersExcerpt smart customers
Excerpt smart customers
 
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
 
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
Outdoor Advertising In America Today 121510
 
Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels
Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels
Advertising Trends in Digital and Traditional Media Channels
 
Assignment 2 T1.pdf
Assignment 2 T1.pdfAssignment 2 T1.pdf
Assignment 2 T1.pdf
 
Digital marketing trends 2014
Digital marketing trends 2014Digital marketing trends 2014
Digital marketing trends 2014
 
The Future Of [Social] Media
The Future Of [Social] MediaThe Future Of [Social] Media
The Future Of [Social] Media
 
Marketing Trends To Watch
Marketing Trends To WatchMarketing Trends To Watch
Marketing Trends To Watch
 
Dmitry Shishkin
Dmitry ShishkinDmitry Shishkin
Dmitry Shishkin
 
Future of Advertising
Future of AdvertisingFuture of Advertising
Future of Advertising
 
8 Digital trends to follow for 2016
8 Digital trends to follow for 20168 Digital trends to follow for 2016
8 Digital trends to follow for 2016
 
Crisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBK
Crisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBKCrisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBK
Crisis 2.0 Mike Gurevich RBK
 
A look at client-agency relationships.
A look at client-agency relationships. A look at client-agency relationships.
A look at client-agency relationships.
 
The evolution of client-agency relationships
The evolution of client-agency relationshipsThe evolution of client-agency relationships
The evolution of client-agency relationships
 

Recently uploaded

Understanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and Employees
Understanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and EmployeesUnderstanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and Employees
Understanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and EmployeesDragon Dream Bar
 
Vendors of country report usefull datass
Vendors of country report usefull datassVendors of country report usefull datass
Vendors of country report usefull datassDilipParmar63
 
Unlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlast
Unlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlastUnlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlast
Unlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlastInstBlast Marketing
 
Falcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small Businesses
Falcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small BusinessesFalcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small Businesses
Falcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small BusinessesFalcon investment
 
Raising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE Ventures
Raising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE VenturesRaising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE Ventures
Raising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE VenturesAlejandro Cremades
 
Cracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptx
Cracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptxCracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptx
Cracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptxWorkforce Group
 
USA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdf
USA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdfUSA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdf
USA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdfsuperbizness1227
 
Stages of Startup Funding - An Explainer
Stages of Startup Funding - An ExplainerStages of Startup Funding - An Explainer
Stages of Startup Funding - An ExplainerAlejandro Cremades
 
India’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdf
India’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdfIndia’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdf
India’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdfCIOLOOKIndia
 
Revolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon Components
Revolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon ComponentsRevolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon Components
Revolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon ComponentsConnova AG
 
Evolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdf
Evolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdfEvolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdf
Evolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdfGutaMengesha1
 
Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)
Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)
Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)Alejandro Cremades
 
Global Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdf
Global Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdfGlobal Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdf
Global Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdfHenry Tapper
 
The Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdf
The Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdfThe Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdf
The Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdfMont Surfaces
 
Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...
Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...
Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...Björn Rohles
 
A Brief Introduction About Jacob Badgett
A Brief Introduction About Jacob BadgettA Brief Introduction About Jacob Badgett
A Brief Introduction About Jacob BadgettJacobBadgett
 
PitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for Startups
PitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for StartupsPitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for Startups
PitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for StartupsAlejandro Cremades
 
Innomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdf
Innomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdfInnomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdf
Innomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdfInnomantra
 
The Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step Instructions
The Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step InstructionsThe Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step Instructions
The Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step InstructionsWHMCS Smarters
 
IPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best Service
IPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best ServiceIPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best Service
IPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best ServiceDragon Dream Bar
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Understanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and Employees
Understanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and EmployeesUnderstanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and Employees
Understanding UAE Labour Law: Key Points for Employers and Employees
 
Vendors of country report usefull datass
Vendors of country report usefull datassVendors of country report usefull datass
Vendors of country report usefull datass
 
Unlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlast
Unlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlastUnlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlast
Unlock Your TikTok Potential: Free TikTok Likes with InstBlast
 
Falcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small Businesses
Falcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small BusinessesFalcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small Businesses
Falcon Invoice Discounting Setup for Small Businesses
 
Raising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE Ventures
Raising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE VenturesRaising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE Ventures
Raising Seed Capital by Steve Schlafman at RRE Ventures
 
Cracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptx
Cracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptxCracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptx
Cracking the Change Management Code Main New.pptx
 
USA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdf
USA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdfUSA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdf
USA classified ads posting – best classified sites in usa.pdf
 
Stages of Startup Funding - An Explainer
Stages of Startup Funding - An ExplainerStages of Startup Funding - An Explainer
Stages of Startup Funding - An Explainer
 
India’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdf
India’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdfIndia’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdf
India’s Recommended Women Surgeons to Watch in 2024.pdf
 
Revolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon Components
Revolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon ComponentsRevolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon Components
Revolutionizing Industries: The Power of Carbon Components
 
Evolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdf
Evolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdfEvolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdf
Evolution and Growth of Supply chain.pdf
 
Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)
Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)
Inside the Black Box of Venture Capital (VC)
 
Global Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdf
Global Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdfGlobal Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdf
Global Interconnection Group Joint Venture[960] (1).pdf
 
The Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdf
The Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdfThe Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdf
The Truth About Dinesh Bafna's Situation.pdf
 
Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...
Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...
Meaningful Technology for Humans: How Strategy Helps to Deliver Real Value fo...
 
A Brief Introduction About Jacob Badgett
A Brief Introduction About Jacob BadgettA Brief Introduction About Jacob Badgett
A Brief Introduction About Jacob Badgett
 
PitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for Startups
PitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for StartupsPitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for Startups
PitchBook’s Guide to VC Funding for Startups
 
Innomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdf
Innomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdfInnomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdf
Innomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdf
 
The Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step Instructions
The Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step InstructionsThe Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step Instructions
The Ultimate Guide to IPTV App Development Process_ Step-By-Step Instructions
 
IPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best Service
IPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best ServiceIPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best Service
IPTV Subscription UK: Your Guide to Choosing the Best Service
 

Advertising in 2020, tom morton's ipa talk, 24 january 2011

  • 1. ADVERTISING IN 2020an imperfect talk to the IPA 44 Club, 24 January 2011 Tom Morton Chief Strategy Officer, Publicis UK @tommorton
  • 2. If you want to make a fool of someone, ask him to predict the future
  • 3. If you want to make a tit of someone, get him to talk about the future. I’ve been reading an article from 2000 about how TV advertising would work in 2010. We should have been looking forward to: OnDigital, Telewest, and Carlton Interactive dominating the industry Online shopping where you point your remote at a product in a programme and buy it. People wanting their web browsing interrupted by TV ads.   I won’t talk too much about the specifics of what the industry will look like.   Instead I’ll focus on what’s going to shape the industry.   And I’ll suggest three coping strategies for getting to 2020.
  • 4. Most of what we need for the future is here, it’s just in the wrong place
  • 5. Most of what we need is here, but it’s in the wrong places. We’ve got emerging talent and strong relationships. Most of the emerging talents are in startups; most of the relationships and the cash that comes with them are in the networks We’re got the public interacting with brands. We’re asking the public to like our Facebook pages and shoot our ads when we should be asking them to collaborate on our products We’ve got behaviour experts. Media planners are great at understanding audience behaviour, but they’ve kept that expertise and their business in the corner of paid-form media We’ve got a wealth of real-time data based on people’s real purchases and behaviour and movements. It’s just stuck in different industries - buying on Dunhumby, searching on Google, sharing on Facebook, moving on Vodafone, viewing on Sky – not at fingertips of the comms industry. We’ve got people who build interest and usability in to products, but they’re in engineering not marketing. As IBM say, “the interface is the product”, and that will be the case for more industries in future. We should have these people baking that interest and usability in to all products We have incredible content makers, from the socially important Wikileaks expose to the new Caribou album. They’re just dependent on declining media to pay for it
  • 6. We need to put the industry’s resources on castors
  • 7. We need to put the industry’s resources on castors, so they can be moved next to where they are needed.   The challenge of the next ten years consists of reassembling what we’ve got in order to make something useful.  
  • 8. A Blade Runner future, brought to us by Cillit Bang
  • 9. The shape of media will determine the shape of advertising A lot of our industry will depend on how much high quality content remains ad funded.Lots of the most must-see content will go on to subscription – HBO in the States, premiership football, iTunes, News Corp papers on iPad. The issue is what remains. We could have technologically-boosted outdoor and must-see live TV to work with, or we could have cheap ad breaks in crappy rerun channels Social media will remain a parallel universe – central to how people live their lives, where people set the rules and where brands will need to learn some manners We’ll have a whole bunch of new technologies that could make people’s lives better or could just be a mechanized form of interruption: more screens on which to assault people with offers. They’ll give advertising a bad name until they settle down Most technologies don’t find their best use in their first years of life. True of gaming, dot com, user-generated content, foursquare. We’ve seen how MySpace has more or less died under the weight of too much interruptive advertising. We have to hope that doesn’t happen to the public space Russell Davies wrote about the worst case scenario: if good content doesn’t need advertising, and advertisers find more low-rent technologies to carry messages, we’ll be living in a Blade Runner world brought to us by Cillit Bang.
  • 10. The old world will soldier on until it dies on its feet
  • 11. The old world will soldier on, blocking the progress of the new, until it dies on its feet: Future campaigns with many components and constant evolution are labour intensive. The cost is fees and production not media; clients still budget on spending more on media than on creative. Many agencies will have a hard time making modern campaigns at a loss. Testing methods like Ipsos that have nothing to do with modern audience behavior will linger they look familiar & certain This stuff has completely outlived its usefulness; it’s only when it falls apart that its replacement will become the standard And the economics of advertising will mean that advertising won’t change as fast as we hope Still a cash generative business: can generate 15%-20% margin every year with little capital expenditure. Business owners will be careful of tampering with that Shareholders more impressed by separate digital business units than by digitally-literate ad agencies Banners have a click through rate of 0.1%; YouTube’s algorithms assume that if I’m watching the Rolling Stones I’m in the market for paving stones but they’ll probably continue for as long as there’s a ton of space to fill and they’re almost free to run Company owners will wait until a business model is at its terminal stages – no prospect of making any money in the future - before they do something radical with it
  • 12. We’ll build the new world on top of the old one
  • 13. We’ll build the new world on top of the old one   The analogy comes from urban planning & a book called The Death And Life Of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs. Fifty years ago she saw town planners were trying to flatten or bypass 19th century cities to build modern utopias. She said with a complicated connected system like a city, you don’t dismantle the old. You build the new alongside it. It’s the same with our industry.  
  • 14. Always follow the economics
  • 15. To prep for the future, always follow the economics They’ll tell you what is viable, and what’s unsupportable. What does this cost to make, what influence does it buy? Holding companies have no bias to analogue or digital or media or creative. They’ll put money in to what is profitable; what is likely to grow. For example, newspapers are dead in the US where advertising accounts for seven eights revenue; less so in Britain where it’s half. And it’s not economic to create special build campaigns for every site – the audience size doesn’t justify the outlay
  • 17. Always follow the people Because the ultimate test of our industry is our ability to understand and influence the public. It will help you to make sense of the potential of new technology. See how people fell on the stats about the number of subscribers to the Times online. It’s why ‘test and learn’ is so important. You have to follow what people actually do with your new type of campaign otherwise it’s not a test; it’s a prank. Experiments have hypotheses and results and conclusions, they’re more than tinkering. The growing volume of real-time audience data is going to define our industry. Go seek the truth there. Whoever masters that and makes it useful will rise to the top.
  • 19. Punt, don’t plan We can’t be sure exactly when changes will occur, or how big they will be. Our industry is moving from an industrial model to a bespoke model. Each piece of activity will have a different shape.   That’s a future where it’s better to make punts than plans. The future’s going to come from a series of experiments: little ventures with new technology and new partners and new ways of working Learn like every other creative and technology business does: prototype stuff, test and learn. Learn by doing. A friend of mine left advertising to work at Google. He said it’s an impossible errand to aim to change the entire industry. His mantra: “Don’t change it, hack it.”
  • 20. Hack Experiment Learn Punt
  • 21. Hack. Experiment. Learn. Punt. Yes, that does spell HELP. And acronyms are cheesy. But these are what creative, entrepreneurial thinkers have always done. Good luck