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Contract Cities Association 51st Annual Municipal Seminar  “ Forecasting our Economic Future” Jack Kyser Founding Economis...
2010 “ A Measured Economic Recovery”
More Positive Signs…
JOB COUNTS “READY TO TURN UP?” Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA EDD  Most Recent
U.S. Retail Sales Source:  U.S. Census Bureau
 
Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments Source:  U.S. Census  Bureau
Car & Light Truck Sales Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis
But There Are Concerns
JOBLESS RATES AT HIGH LEVELS Sources:  BLS, CA EDD Percent Unemployed (SA)
Characteristics of the Unemployed Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment, seas...
Spot Energy Prices Source:  Federal Reserve, St. Louis $/Mcf $/Barrel
U.S. Personal Savings Rate Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. Equity Prices
COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS Source:  Federal Reserve
U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Q/Q Change (at Annual Rate) Sources:  Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecast by LAEDC
U.S. Labor Market Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC
Risks for the Economy <ul><ul><li>Financial Fragility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Credit Crunch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>...
California Fundamentals Source: California Employment Development Dept . (EDD) Change in Nonfarm Jobs, SA, thousands Unemp...
JOB TRENDS BY METRO AREA Sources: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division 12-Month % Change to March 2010
Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) California Industry Winners and Losers Monthly Mar ’09 to Mar ’10 % ...
Characteristics of California’s Unemployed Source:  California Employment Development Department (EDD) Employees, thousands
California Housing Market Sources:  U.S. Census Bureau, California Association of Realtors
Unsold Inventory By Price Range California - Existing Homes March 2010 vs. March 2009 SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF RE...
California Fundamentals Yr/Yr Annual Employment % Change Source:  EDD Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC
Risks for the California Economy <ul><li>On-going state budget problems.  Impact on local governments & redevelopment agen...
Regional Review
Los Angeles County Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year  (Thousands) Source: California Employm...
Orange County Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Source: California Employment Development Dept. Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Y...
Inland Empire Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Source: California Employment Development Dept. Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Y...
San Francisco Metro Area Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year  Source: California Employment De...
Oakland Metro Area Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year  Source: California Employment Developm...
Trends in Key Industries
TOTAL CARGO  HANDLED at LA/ LB Ports Sources:  Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach April 2010  Total TEUs:  1,080,343 Annual...
TOTAL CARGO  HANDLED  at Oakland Port Source:  Port of Oakland March 2010  Total TEUs:  186,956 Annual % Change:  + 10.5% ...
TECHNOLOGY JOB TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA Thousands of Jobs Source: California Employment Development Department
HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES Source: PKF Consulting Occupancy Rates (%)
Source:  PKF Consulting Hotel Room Rates
Trends in Trailing Industries
Sources: BEA, CA BOE Year/Year % Change California Personal Income & Taxable Sales
California New Home Permits Source:  California Construction Industry Research Board  SAAR, thousands of units
Office Vacancy Rates  (1st Quarter 2010) <ul><li>Los Angeles County 16.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Orange County 26.9% </li></ul>...
Industrial Vacancy Rates  (1st Quarter 2010) <ul><li>Los Angeles County 3.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Orange County 6.7% </li></u...
Wrap-Up <ul><li>Growth will Slowly Accelerate During 2010 and in to 2011 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>However, Unemployment will ...
THANK YOU and  STAY INFORMED Keep up with economic news and major developments by  subscribing  to  e-EDGE , our free week...
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Forecasting Our Economic Future_Kyser

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Forecasting Our Economic Future_Kyser

  1. 1. Contract Cities Association 51st Annual Municipal Seminar “ Forecasting our Economic Future” Jack Kyser Founding Economist The Kyser Center for Economic Research May 14, 2010
  2. 2. 2010 “ A Measured Economic Recovery”
  3. 3. More Positive Signs…
  4. 4. JOB COUNTS “READY TO TURN UP?” Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA EDD Most Recent
  5. 5. U.S. Retail Sales Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  6. 7. Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments Source: U.S. Census Bureau
  7. 8. Car & Light Truck Sales Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  8. 9. But There Are Concerns
  9. 10. JOBLESS RATES AT HIGH LEVELS Sources: BLS, CA EDD Percent Unemployed (SA)
  10. 11. Characteristics of the Unemployed Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted
  11. 12. Spot Energy Prices Source: Federal Reserve, St. Louis $/Mcf $/Barrel
  12. 13. U.S. Personal Savings Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
  13. 14. U.S. Equity Prices
  14. 15. COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS Source: Federal Reserve
  15. 16. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Q/Q Change (at Annual Rate) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecast by LAEDC
  16. 17. U.S. Labor Market Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC
  17. 18. Risks for the Economy <ul><ul><li>Financial Fragility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Credit Crunch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can the Housing Sector “Fly Solo”? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer/Business Confidence Still Weak </li></ul></ul>
  18. 19. California Fundamentals Source: California Employment Development Dept . (EDD) Change in Nonfarm Jobs, SA, thousands Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (Thousands) March 2010
  19. 20. JOB TRENDS BY METRO AREA Sources: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division 12-Month % Change to March 2010
  20. 21. Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) California Industry Winners and Losers Monthly Mar ’09 to Mar ’10 % Change in Average Employment (000s)
  21. 22. Characteristics of California’s Unemployed Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD) Employees, thousands
  22. 23. California Housing Market Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, California Association of Realtors
  23. 24. Unsold Inventory By Price Range California - Existing Homes March 2010 vs. March 2009 SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
  24. 25. California Fundamentals Yr/Yr Annual Employment % Change Source: EDD Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC
  25. 26. Risks for the California Economy <ul><li>On-going state budget problems. Impact on local governments & redevelopment agencies </li></ul><ul><li>Unfriendly business environment – business recruiters are busy </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Regulations </li></ul>
  26. 27. Regional Review
  27. 28. Los Angeles County Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (Thousands) Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) March 2010
  28. 29. Orange County Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Source: California Employment Development Dept. Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) March 2010
  29. 30. Inland Empire Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Source: California Employment Development Dept. Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year (000s) March 2010
  30. 31. San Francisco Metro Area Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) March 2010
  31. 32. Oakland Metro Area Fundamentals Unemployment Rate Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD) March 2010
  32. 33. Trends in Key Industries
  33. 34. TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at LA/ LB Ports Sources: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach April 2010 Total TEUs: 1,080,343 Annual % Change: +14.8% Thousands of TEUs
  34. 35. TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at Oakland Port Source: Port of Oakland March 2010 Total TEUs: 186,956 Annual % Change: + 10.5% Thousands of TEUs
  35. 36. TECHNOLOGY JOB TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA Thousands of Jobs Source: California Employment Development Department
  36. 37. HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES Source: PKF Consulting Occupancy Rates (%)
  37. 38. Source: PKF Consulting Hotel Room Rates
  38. 39. Trends in Trailing Industries
  39. 40. Sources: BEA, CA BOE Year/Year % Change California Personal Income & Taxable Sales
  40. 41. California New Home Permits Source: California Construction Industry Research Board SAAR, thousands of units
  41. 42. Office Vacancy Rates (1st Quarter 2010) <ul><li>Los Angeles County 16.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Orange County 26.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Inland Empire 24.0% </li></ul><ul><li>San Francisco 17.6% </li></ul><ul><li>San Jose/Silicon Valley 18.6% </li></ul><ul><li>Sacramento 20.6% </li></ul>Source: Grubb & Ellis
  42. 43. Industrial Vacancy Rates (1st Quarter 2010) <ul><li>Los Angeles County 3.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Orange County 6.7% </li></ul><ul><li>Inland Empire 11.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Oakland 4.7% </li></ul><ul><li>San Jose/Silicon Valley 15.2% </li></ul><ul><li>Sacramento 12.8% </li></ul>Source: Grubb & Ellis
  43. 44. Wrap-Up <ul><li>Growth will Slowly Accelerate During 2010 and in to 2011 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>However, Unemployment will only Gradually Decline </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Key Tax Generating Sectors – Real Estate & Retailing – Will Lag the Overall Economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenges for California & Local Metro Areas: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Business Feels Government is Unresponsive to Their Needs </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Business is Confused by all the Regulation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Business is being Vigorously Courted by Other States </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  44. 45. THANK YOU and STAY INFORMED Keep up with economic news and major developments by subscribing to e-EDGE , our free weekly economic newsletter. Check out the current issue at www.LAEDC.org

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