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Forcasting Our Economic Future_Kyser

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Forcasting Our Economic Future_Kyser

  1. 1. “Forecasting our Economic Future”<br />Contract Cities Association51st Annual Municipal Seminar <br />Jack Kyser<br />Founding Economist<br />The Kyser Center for Economic Research<br />May 14, 2010<br />
  2. 2. 2010<br />“A Measured Economic Recovery”<br />
  3. 3. More Positive Signs…<br />
  4. 4. JOB COUNTS “READY TO TURN UP?”<br />Most Recent<br />Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA EDD <br />
  5. 5. U.S. Retail Sales<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau<br />
  6. 6.
  7. 7. Nondefense Capital Goods Shipments<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau<br />
  8. 8. Car & Light Truck Sales<br />Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
  9. 9. But There Are Concerns<br />
  10. 10. JOBLESS RATES AT HIGH LEVELS<br />Percent Unemployed (SA)<br />Sources: BLS, CA EDD<br />
  11. 11. Characteristics of the Unemployed<br />Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment, seasonally adjusted <br />Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />
  12. 12. Spot Energy Prices<br />$/Barrel<br />$/Mcf<br />Source: Federal Reserve, St. Louis<br />
  13. 13. U.S. Personal Savings Rate<br />Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis<br />
  14. 14. U.S. Equity Prices<br />
  15. 15. COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS<br />Source: Federal Reserve<br />
  16. 16. U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH<br />Q/Q Change (at Annual Rate)<br />Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecast by LAEDC<br />
  17. 17. U.S. Labor Market<br />Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC <br />
  18. 18. Risks for the Economy<br /><ul><li>Financial Fragility
  19. 19. Credit Crunch
  20. 20. Can the Housing Sector “Fly Solo”?
  21. 21. Consumer/Business Confidence Still Weak</li></li></ul><li>California Fundamentals<br />Change in Nonfarm Jobs, SA, thousands<br />Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year <br />(Thousands)<br />Unemployment Rate<br />March 2010<br />Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)<br />
  22. 22. JOB TRENDS BY METRO AREA<br />12-Month % Change to March 2010<br />Sources: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division<br />
  23. 23. California Industry Winners and Losers<br />Monthly Mar ’09 to Mar ’10 % Change in Average Employment (000s)<br />Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)<br />
  24. 24. Characteristics of California’s Unemployed<br />Employees, thousands<br />Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD)<br />
  25. 25. California Housing Market<br />Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, California Association of Realtors <br />
  26. 26. Unsold Inventory By Price Range<br />California - Existing Homes March 2010 vs. March 2009<br />SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®<br />
  27. 27. California Fundamentals<br />Yr/Yr Annual Employment % Change<br />Source: EDD Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC<br />
  28. 28. Risks for the California Economy<br /><ul><li>On-going state budget problems. Impact on local governments & redevelopment agencies
  29. 29. Unfriendly business environment – business recruiters are busy
  30. 30. Water
  31. 31. Transportation
  32. 32. Environmental Regulations</li></li></ul><li>Regional Review<br />
  33. 33. Los Angeles County Fundamentals<br />Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year <br />(Thousands)<br />Unemployment Rate<br />March 2010<br />Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)<br />
  34. 34. Orange County Fundamentals<br />Unemployment Rate<br />Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year <br />(000s)<br />March 2010<br />Source: California Employment Development Dept.<br />
  35. 35. Inland Empire Fundamentals<br />Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year <br />(000s)<br />Unemployment Rate<br />March 2010<br />Source: California Employment Development Dept.<br />
  36. 36. San Francisco Metro Area Fundamentals<br />Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year <br />Unemployment Rate<br />March 2010<br />Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)<br />
  37. 37. Oakland Metro Area Fundamentals<br />Change in Nonfarm Jobs Year/Year <br />Unemployment Rate<br />March 2010<br />Source: California Employment Development Dept. (EDD)<br />
  38. 38. Trends in Key Industries<br />
  39. 39. TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at LA/ LB Ports<br />Thousands of TEUs<br />April 2010 <br />Total TEUs: 1,080,343<br />Annual % Change: +14.8%<br />Sources: Ports of Los Angeles & Long Beach<br />
  40. 40. TOTAL CARGO HANDLED at Oakland Port<br />Thousands of TEUs<br />March 2010 <br />Total TEUs: 186,956<br />Annual % Change: + 10.5%<br />Source: Port of Oakland<br />
  41. 41. TECHNOLOGY JOB TRENDS IN CALIFORNIA<br />Thousands of Jobs<br />Source: California Employment Development Department<br />
  42. 42. HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES<br />Occupancy Rates (%)<br />Source: PKF Consulting<br />
  43. 43. Hotel Room Rates<br />Source: PKF Consulting<br />
  44. 44. Trends in Trailing Industries<br />
  45. 45. California Personal Income & Taxable Sales<br />Year/Year % Change<br />Sources: BEA, CA BOE<br />
  46. 46. California New Home Permits<br />SAAR, thousands of units<br />Source: California Construction Industry Research Board <br />
  47. 47. Office Vacancy Rates (1st Quarter 2010)<br /><ul><li>Los Angeles County 16.6%
  48. 48. Orange County 26.9%
  49. 49. Inland Empire 24.0%
  50. 50. San Francisco 17.6%
  51. 51. San Jose/Silicon Valley 18.6%
  52. 52. Sacramento 20.6%</li></ul>Source: Grubb & Ellis<br />
  53. 53. Industrial Vacancy Rates (1st Quarter 2010)<br /><ul><li>Los Angeles County 3.4%
  54. 54. Orange County 6.7%
  55. 55. Inland Empire 11.9%
  56. 56. Oakland 4.7%
  57. 57. San Jose/Silicon Valley 15.2%
  58. 58. Sacramento 12.8%</li></ul>Source: Grubb & Ellis<br />
  59. 59. Wrap-Up<br /><ul><li>Growth will Slowly Accelerate During 2010 and in to 2011
  60. 60. However, Unemployment will only Gradually Decline
  61. 61. Key Tax Generating Sectors – Real Estate & Retailing – Will Lag the Overall Economy
  62. 62. Challenges for California & Local Metro Areas:
  63. 63. Business Feels Government is Unresponsive to Their Needs
  64. 64. Business is Confused by all the Regulation
  65. 65. Business is being Vigorously Courted by Other States</li></li></ul><li>THANK YOU and <br />STAY INFORMED<br />Keep up with economic news and major developments by <br />subscribing to e-EDGE, our free weekly economic newsletter. Check out the current issue at www.LAEDC.org<br />

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