Is California’s Future Still Golden?    Bill Watkins September 2012
United States
Why Doesn’t it Feel Like a Recovery?www.clucerf.org
Fewer People are Working140.0               Non-Farm Jobs-SA138.0136.0134.0132.0130.0128.0126.0124.0   2000Q1   2002Q2    ...
Incomes are Down            Real Per Capita Gross Domestic            44 44       Product       44        44   44  43     ...
People are Poorer              Real Per Capita Net Wealth:  212 212 211                   Household Sector         205    ...
Many have Given Up Looking for WorkPercent Share of   Civilian Labor Force/Population  Population                         ...
United States   Forecastwww.clucerf.org
Then, there is the    deficit. www.clucerf.org
Hint: It’s notinfrastructure or Defense.
Department Overlay as %GDP 2010      10.2                                                                                 ...
How to Fix the   Budgetwww.clucerf.org
How to Grow the   Economywww.clucerf.org
Increase Legal Immigration       www.clucerf.org
Get Rid of Bad RegulationDodd-Frank             www.clucerf.org
DevelopDomestic Energy      www.clucerf.org
The Upside Riskwww.clucerf.org
What could go wrong?www.clucerf.org
Real Estate
Home Ownership Getting Better!                  United States                     Home Ownership Rate, SA                 ...
Has California lost its       mojo?
California Smaller Part of U.S. Economy                 California Nonfarm Jobs as a                     share of United S...
Domestic Migration                                                                     -46                                ...
•   34 % with 12 %•   38 of 58•   34.6 %•   31 %      www.clucerf.org
Taylor Caldwell said:     “If they can’t do it in      California, it can’t     be done anywhere.”     www.clucerf.org
www.clucerf.org
Muddy said:      “I got my mojo         worken.  It just don’t work on           you.”
California Forecast
Modest Output Growth Weaker Job Growth   Persistent High   Unemployment.
Some of California’s regions are doing better than others.www.clucerf.org
How to Change California’s        Forecast       www.clucerf.org
Recognize the problem.
Miningwww.clucerf.org
Get rid of bad regulation  www.clucerf.org
Do regulation rightwww.clucerf.org
Cut the Cost of :    Delay    Uncertainty    Regulations    Taxes
Which brings us back to China
Thank you! Please visit our website for:  Forecast data  Op-eds  Blogs  Tweets  Analysis  RSS Feedswww.clucerf.org
Bill Watkins - Economic Forecast
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Bill Watkins - Economic Forecast

  1. 1. Is California’s Future Still Golden? Bill Watkins September 2012
  2. 2. United States
  3. 3. Why Doesn’t it Feel Like a Recovery?www.clucerf.org
  4. 4. Fewer People are Working140.0 Non-Farm Jobs-SA138.0136.0134.0132.0130.0128.0126.0124.0 2000Q1 2002Q2 2004Q3 2006Q4 2009Q1 2011Q2 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (millions of jobs)
  5. 5. Incomes are Down Real Per Capita Gross Domestic 44 44 Product 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 41 412007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (thousands of 2005 dollars)
  6. 6. People are Poorer Real Per Capita Net Wealth: 212 212 211 Household Sector 205 195 188 178 171 175 173 175 178 166 166 169 162 161 163 161 164 154 1562007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting United States - (thousands of 2005 Q1 dollars)
  7. 7. Many have Given Up Looking for WorkPercent Share of Civilian Labor Force/Population Population Jan. 1980 to August 201252.051.050.049.048.047.046.045.0
  8. 8. United States Forecastwww.clucerf.org
  9. 9. Then, there is the deficit. www.clucerf.org
  10. 10. Hint: It’s notinfrastructure or Defense.
  11. 11. Department Overlay as %GDP 2010 10.2 8.0 5.8 5.2 4.5Total Government Dept. of Defense Dept. of Health and Social Security Other spending Deficit Human Services Administration
  12. 12. How to Fix the Budgetwww.clucerf.org
  13. 13. How to Grow the Economywww.clucerf.org
  14. 14. Increase Legal Immigration www.clucerf.org
  15. 15. Get Rid of Bad RegulationDodd-Frank www.clucerf.org
  16. 16. DevelopDomestic Energy www.clucerf.org
  17. 17. The Upside Riskwww.clucerf.org
  18. 18. What could go wrong?www.clucerf.org
  19. 19. Real Estate
  20. 20. Home Ownership Getting Better! United States Home Ownership Rate, SA Percent of Households70.069.068.067.066.065.064.063.062.061.060.0 1980Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004 Q1 2010 Q1
  21. 21. Has California lost its mojo?
  22. 22. California Smaller Part of U.S. Economy California Nonfarm Jobs as a share of United States11.4% 11.2% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 10.9% 10.8% 10.8% 10.7% 10.7% 10.6%1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (percent of U.S.)
  23. 23. Domestic Migration -46 -54 -51 -63 -81 -92 -97 -99 -120-151 -151 -143 -160 -215 -256 -249 -265 20 Years -313 -389 -384 3.8 Million -4341991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Center for Economic Research and Forecasting California - (thousands of persons)
  24. 24. • 34 % with 12 %• 38 of 58• 34.6 %• 31 % www.clucerf.org
  25. 25. Taylor Caldwell said: “If they can’t do it in California, it can’t be done anywhere.” www.clucerf.org
  26. 26. www.clucerf.org
  27. 27. Muddy said: “I got my mojo worken. It just don’t work on you.”
  28. 28. California Forecast
  29. 29. Modest Output Growth Weaker Job Growth Persistent High Unemployment.
  30. 30. Some of California’s regions are doing better than others.www.clucerf.org
  31. 31. How to Change California’s Forecast www.clucerf.org
  32. 32. Recognize the problem.
  33. 33. Miningwww.clucerf.org
  34. 34. Get rid of bad regulation www.clucerf.org
  35. 35. Do regulation rightwww.clucerf.org
  36. 36. Cut the Cost of : Delay Uncertainty Regulations Taxes
  37. 37. Which brings us back to China
  38. 38. Thank you! Please visit our website for: Forecast data Op-eds Blogs Tweets Analysis RSS Feedswww.clucerf.org

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