Successfully reported this slideshow.
Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

Disasters as Conflict Triggers: A New Framework for Analysis in Conflict-Affected & Post-Conflict States

Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad

Check these out next

1 of 22 Ad
Advertisement

More Related Content

Similar to Disasters as Conflict Triggers: A New Framework for Analysis in Conflict-Affected & Post-Conflict States (20)

Advertisement

Disasters as Conflict Triggers: A New Framework for Analysis in Conflict-Affected & Post-Conflict States

  1. 1. D ISASTERS AS C ONFLICT T RIGGERS : A N EW F RAMEWORK FOR A NALYSIS IN C ONFLICT -A FFECTED & P OST -C ONFLICT S TATES
  2. 2. O VERVIEW OF P RESENTATION  Discussion of literature on disasters and conflict link  Disaster Diplomacy & disasters in post- conflict settings  Overview of analytical framework  Case Study – 2005 Pakistan Earthquake  Next steps for research  Conclusion
  3. 3. I NTRODUCTION  Little research on link between disasters and conflict  Literature in this field remains ambiguous  Some evidence linking rapid onset disasters to higher conflict risk  Little evidence to show that slow onset disasters affect conflict
  4. 4. D ISASTER D IPLOMACY ?  Almost no research on effects of disasters in post-conflict states  Some suggest “disaster diplomacy” effect  2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh  1999 Earthquakes in Turkey, Greece
  5. 5. D ISASTER D IPLOMACY ?  Disaster diplomacy far from guaranteed  2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka conflict  2001 Gujarat Earthquake in India  Given this fact:  What are pathways connecting disasters & conflict?
  6. 6. A N EW A NALYTICAL F RAMEWORK 1.) Weak State Hypothesis • Opportunity Pathway • Regime Weakness Pathway • Rebel Legitimacy Pathway 2.) Disaster Politics • Inequality Pathway • Politicization of Response Pathway • Conflict (In)sensitivity of Aid Pathway 3.) Disaster Economics • Opportunity Costs Pathway • Rebel Financing Pathway 4.) Migration & Demographics • Sons of the Soil Pathway • Migration Disruption Pathway • Migration as Organization Pathway
  7. 7. W EAK S TATE H YPOTHESIS  Disasters may expose weak ruling governments to rebellion  Rebel Legitimacy Pathway  2004 Tsunami in LTTE-held areas Map overlaying % of dead or missing from 2004 tsunami and LTTE- held areas in Sri Lanka Le Billon & Waaizenegger (2007). “Peace in the wake of disaster? Secessionist conflicts and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.” pg, 416
  8. 8. D ISASTER P OLITICS  Disasters are not “natural” events - inherently political & socially constructed  Conflict (In)sensitivity of Aid Pathway  Aid disparities in Aceh after Tsunami Destruction in Aceh, Indonesia after Indian Ocean Tsunami Courtesy of National Geographic
  9. 9. D ISASTER E CONOMICS  Disasters have economic costs, opportunities  Rebel Financing Pathway  Interahamwe extorted UN refugee aid after Rwandan genocide Refugee camp for Hutus who fled into eastern DRC in 1994
  10. 10. M IGRATION & D EMOGRAPHICS  Disasters can lead to large-scale population movements, affect demographics 1. Sons of the Soil Pathway 2. Migration Disruption 3. Migration as Organization
  11. 11. D ISPLACEMENT A FTER K ATRINA
  12. 12. M IGRATION & D EMOGRAPHICS  Disasters can lead to large-scale population movements, affect demographics  Migration as Organization pathway  Burmese junta response to Cyclone Nargis Cyclone Nargis affected areas Courtesy of ReliefWeb
  13. 13. 2005 PAKISTAN E ARTHQUAKE  October 5, 2005: 7.6 magnitude earthquake  Affected 28,000km in Azad Jammu Kashmir & North West Frontier Province  Kills 73,338 people, seriously injures 73,000
  14. 14. 2005 PAKISTAN E ARTHQUAKE  Majority of damage done to housing, public buildings  Damage to schools killed 18,000 children  “the disaster that wiped out a generation of children” in Pakistan  Government completely unprepared for disaster of this magnitude
  15. 15. U SING D ISASTER -C ONFLICT F RAMEWORK FOR E ARTHQUAKE  Earthquake response effort has clear conflict dynamics  Relevant pathways from framework:  Rebel Legitimacy  Conflict (In)sensitivity of Aid  Migration as Organization
  16. 16. R EBEL L EGITIMACY  Pakistani government slow to respond  First step was reinforcing Line of Control  Militant organizations filled this gap  Saw response as Earthquake victims receive food from Jamaat- opportunity to win ud-Dawa, front group for Lashkar-e-Taiba hearts & minds  17 banned groups played role in response
  17. 17. C ONFLICT I N ( SENSITIVITY ) OF A ID  Humanitarians used to working in weak states  Had little experience in Pakistan, did not understand political context  Organizations work directly with military regime, bypass civil society
  18. 18. D ISASTER D IPLOMACY  Post-disaster changes largely path- dependent  Disasters can help catalyze existing diplomacy, cannot create it  Leaders must push diplomacy, but cannot get ahead of constituents  Non-disaster issues often dominate, undermine diplomacy potential  Need action by actors across scales on both sides of conflict
  19. 19. M IGRATION AS O RGANIZATION  Earthquake left 2.8 million Pakistanis homeless  Aid only provided to official IDP camps  Islamist groups took advantage of this decision
  20. 20. R ESEARCH N EXT S TEPS  Conducting surveys, interviews with practitioners and researchers  Demonstrate how conflict affected earthquake vulnerability in Pakistan  Trace connections between peacebuilding & disaster risk reduction (DRR) Pressure and Release (PAR) Model of disasters, from Blaikie et al (1994)
  21. 21. C ONCLUSION  Research on disasters & conflict ambiguous, doesn’t focus on post-conflict states  New framework traces 4 mechanisms, 11 possible pathways  Response to Pakistan Earthquake showed multiple pathways at work  Links between disasters & conflict suggests need to address both simultaneously
  22. 22. THANK YOU QUESTIONS? Tim Kovach MA Candidate, Global Environmental Policy timothy.kovach@american.edu

Editor's Notes

  • Discussion of literature on disasters and conflict linkDisaster Diplomacy & disasters in post-conflict settingsOverview of analytical frameworkCase Study – 2005 Pakistan EarthquakeNext steps for researchConclusion
  • to date, there has been relatively little research done on link between disasters and conflict the literature that has been conducted in this field remains largely ambiguousSome evidence linking rapid onset disasters to higher conflict risk other studies challenges their findings, however, arguing such disasters create greater empathy Little evidence to show that slow onset disasters affect conflict evidence that does exist remains uncertain, at best
  • increasing amount of research into links btwn disasters & conflict, almost none focuses on effects of disasters in post-conflict statesSome of the research that has occurred suggests a potential “disaster diplomacy” effect after 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the Indonesian govt & Achenese rebels resolved their 30-year conflict following major earthquakes in Greece & Turkey during 1999, the two govts reached a rapprochementGreece agreed to drop opposition to Turkish candidacy for EU
  • Yet, disaster diplomacy remains far from guaranteed ceasefire agreement btwn Sri Lankan govt & Tamil Tiger rebels in place from 2002 after tsunami rebels boycotted national elections and resumed violent attacks major earthquake hit Gujarat Province in India during 2001Musharraf offered support, held summit with Indian PM summit was a failure, nearly led to second conflict in 3 years btwn two rival states Given this fact, I had a key research question:What are pathways connecting disasters & conflict in post-conflict/conflict-affected states?
  • after reading through the literature, I developed a new framework that outlines these potential pathways I propose that there are 4 key mechanisms linking conflict & disasters in post-conflict states: Weak State Hypothesis Disaster Politics Disaster Economics Migration & Demographic Changes as you can see, each of these mechanisms has multiple pathways I will explore four of these mechanisms
  • as an extension of Fearon & Laitin’s weak state hypothesis, a disaster could potentially expose the ruling government/regime in several ways Rebel Legitimacy Pathway – disasters during/after conflict often occur in rebel-held areasinability of ruling govt to adequately respond can create opportunity for rebels to fill this gapThis process can improve their status, provide them legitimacy2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami hammered Sri LankaAs the maps demonstrate, many of the most heavily affected areas were controlled by the Tamil TigersGovt was unable to provide direct assistance to many victims in these areasSome Tamils viewed it as intentional policy to punish them & weaken LTTELTTE considered itself legitimate representative of the Tamil people, demanded that it have control over reconstruction funds, planning processGovt rejected these demands, however, increasing resentmentPerception that govt was favoring Sinhalese in reconstruction & punishing Tamils contribute to renewal of conflict by end of 2005
  • important to recognize that disasters are not truly natural events they are inherently political phenomena, are socially constructed failure to consider & manage these political dynamics of disasters can have ramificationsConflict (In)sensitivity of Aid Pathway – disasters garner humanitarian responses, which may not be sensitive to existing conflict dynamicsFailure to consider important conflict context in affected areas may feed into existing conflicts, contribute to development of new conflictsIndian Ocean Tsunami also wreaked havoc on Aceh, a region in northern SumatraAceh had been home to a separatist insurgency – the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) – since 1976Unlike Sri Lanka, tsunami affected coastal areas, while conflict-affected areas were mostly in mountainous central AcehMassive influx of international support into Aceh created a “second tsunami” of humanitarian aidmost humanitarians were unfamiliar with the conflict contextAs noted, tsunami & response did not lead to resumed conflict – just the oppositeBut aid packages to tsunami survivors were twice as large as packages to households affected by conflictLack of livelihood support to ex-combatants & people affected by conflict created resentment, contributed to spikes in crime
  • just as disasters carry political consequences, they also generate significant economic costs & opportunities Rebel Financing Pathway – when disasters occur in rebel areas, rebel groups can get their hands on humanitarian aid streams most notorious example of rebels seizing humanitarian aid occurred in camps set up in eastern DRC for Hutus fleeing Rwanda after genocide thousands of Hutu Power leaders, interahamwe lived alongside innocent Hutus in the campsExtorted food aid, required innocent survivors to pay taxes & tribute to prop up their rebel group
  • disasters frequently lead to large-scale population displacements, which may affect demographics in source & destination communities research suggests that disasters can drive internal and international migration flows
  • Disaster-related displacement not confined to the developing world Map shows the displacement of victims of Hurricane Katrina following the storm 1.36 million people relocated to each of the 50 states displacement significantly affected demographics, power dynamics in New Orleans
  • Migration as Organization Pathway – many displaced persons end up in relief campsCamps may become target for rebel recruitment, organizationDisasters may also undermine state’s ability to monitor & control these activities, facilitating rebellionInteresting wrinkle to this pathway – Cyclone Nargis hammered Burma in 2008, killing 138,000 peopleCyclone affected the Irrawady Delta, home to large population of ethnic Karen peopleKaren rebels have been engaged in conflict w/ Burmese govt for decadesMilitary feared that Karen rebels would use survivor camps to organize further attacksForcibly evicted tens of thousands of survivors just 2-3 weeks after the stormRequired many to return to villages/homes that had been completely washed away by storm
  • October 5, 2005: 7.6 magnitude earthquakeAffected 28,000km in Azad Jammu Kashmir & North West Frontier ProvinceKills 73,338 people, seriously injures 73,000
  • Majority of damage from earthquake was done to housing stock & public buildings600,000 houses & nearly 8,000 public buildings damaged or destroyed 12,000 schools destroyed or irreparably damaged – killed 18,000 children earthquake to be remembered as “the disaster that wiped out a generation of children” Pakistani Government completely unprepared for disaster of this magnitude first major earthquake since 1935 Quetta Earthquake no disaster management/disaster risk reduction agency existed beforehand
  • Earthquake response effort has clear conflict dynamicsSeveral pathways from my framework are relevant to this case; I will focus on 3:Rebel LegitimacyConflict (In)sensitivity of AidMigration as Organization
  • Pakistani government slow to respond to the disaster, initial response was highly self-servingMilitary’s first step was replacing troops killed or wounded along Line of Control with IndiaTook military 3 days to reach major towns, relief never arrived for many in secluded areasMilitant organizations worked to fill this gapSaw response as opportunity to win hearts & mindsInternational aid, incl. US aid, inevitably ended up in hands of militant orgsJamaat-ud-Dawa, a front organization for Lashkar-e-Taiba, distributed US govt aidISI directly provided humanitarian aid to militant groups in order to “craft a new image” for the militant orgs they preferred
  • Majority of humanitarian actors had experience working in fragile states with weak or non-existentgovts, like Somalia & DRCMost had little experience in Pakistan, did not understand itspolitical contextMilitary has ruled Pakistan directly for half of its history since 1947 “Every country has an army, but Pakistan’s army has a country” Humanitarian orgs, esp. UN agencies, appeared eager to work directly with military regime appropriate for humanitarians to work closely w/ military during rescue & relief efforts but they continued to work directly w/ military during recovery & reconstruction process complicity of humanitarian orgs helped Musharraf regime consolidate its control over govt, sidelined civil society response colored by Global War on Terror priorities US, allies wanted to show support for Musharraf regime, located on front line of War on Terror
  • Social & political changes in the post-disaster setting are largely path-dependentDisasters can help catalyze existing diplomacy, cannot create ite.g. peace process in Aceh was already ongoing before the tsunamiLeaders must be at the forefront of push for disaster diplomacy, but they cannot get ahead of constituentsIf citizens and/or elite actors don’t want to pursue peace, they can undermine effortsNon-disaster issues often dominate, undermine diplomacy potential continued mistrust btwn India & Pakistan over Kashmir issue continued to dominate discussion Pakistani govt rejected Indian offer to provide helicopters for relief effortNeed action by actors across scales on both sides of conflict Ian Kelman: disaster diplomacy is “an encouraging concept in theory…[but]appears to be unrealistic in many situations”
  • earthquake left 2.8 million Pakistanis homeless despite extensive need, Pakistani govt & UNHCR agreed to only provide aid to “official” camps w/ 50+ tents just 25 official camps set up; more than 1,000 unofficial camps settled, which received no formal aid>100,000 people ended up settling in periurban areas, exposing them to serious protection issues Islamic militant orgs took advantage of this opportunity ½ of camps outside of Muzzafarabad were run by banned Islamist groups replaced many of the destroyed state schools with madrassahs Al-Rasheed Trust intentionally set up camps adjacent to World Vision camps, because it was a Christian org widespread evidence that Islamist groups adopted orphans in the affected areas, enrolled them in madrassahs
  • currently conducting survey and interviews with practitioners, donors, and researchers familiar w/ response to the earthquake results will help to inform my analysis further, provide anecdotal evidence plan to demonstrate how decades of conflict in Pakistan and Afghanistan influenced socioeconomic, political, & environmental vulnerability to the earthquake will allow me to complete process tracing analysis, show that disasters & conflicts influence each other after showing the important, bidirectional links btwn disasters & conflict, will trace the connections between peacebuilding & DRR concepts share a number of similarities; propose that pursuing them together can harness synergies, create spillover benefits
  • Research on links between disasters & conflict largelyambiguous, largelydoesn’t focus on post-conflict & conflict-affected statesNew framework I have proposed traces 4 mechanisms, 11 possible pathways to make this link from disaster to conflictResponse to Pakistan Earthquake showed multiple pathways at work; demonstrated 3 of these in this presentationLinks between disasters & conflict suggests need to address both simultaneouslyMutually beneficial process, can take advantage of their synergies

×