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U.s. national survey of Jewish community on Iran nuclear deal -- Charts

U.s. national survey of Jewish community on Iran nuclear deal -- Charts

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U.s. national survey of Jewish community on Iran nuclear deal -- Charts

  1. 1. Conducted on behalf of: NATIONAL POLL JEWISH AMERICANS JULY 2015 July 21-26, 2015 N=1,034 Jewish Americans Margin of Error: +/- 3.0%
  2. 2. 2 On behalf of The Israel Project, Olive Tree Strategies is pleased to present the key findings from a national survey of 1,034 Jewish Americans, conducted July 21-26, 2015. The survey was conducted using online interviews. The data were weighted to approximate a national sample of Jewish Americans based on the Pew Religious Landscape study and past voting behavior. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.0% at a 95% level of confidence. Results based on smaller sample sizes of respondents – such as gender or age – have a larger margin of error.
  3. 3. POLITICAL LANDSCAPE & IRAN DEAL
  4. 4. 4 57% 44% 42% 51% 45% 52% 37% 61% 56% 41% 49% 52% 41% 40% 32% 46% 36% 40% Overall Foreign Policy Nucl. Neg. w/Iran Race Relations Iternational Trade Climate Change Cyber- security Health Care The Economy App Dis President Obama receives high marks from the Jewish community on everything but security issues – Foreign Policy, Nuclear Negotiations, Cybersecurity. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing… Total Other Issues… +16 -5 -10 +10 +5 +20 -9 +25 +16 App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis
  5. 5. 5 42% 42% 11% 4% Total Some Not much Nothing at allA lot For Comparison… • 47% heard a lot/some about Trade Promotion Authority in this same poll, 12% “a lot” & 34% “some” Thinking about recent events, how much have you seen, read, or heard about the negotiations with Iran in regard to their nuclear program and international sanctions? The Jewish community is paying attention to the Iran deal, with strong intensity of attention. 84%
  6. 6. 6 40% 53% 32% 16% 49% 43% 31% 36% 38% 45% 30% 54% 76% 35% 38% 52% 50% 50% Total DEM (52%) IND (29%) GOP (19%) 18-29 (22%) 30-44 (14%) 45-54 (14%) 55-64 (24%) 65+ (26%) App Rej Jewish Americans mildly reject the Iran deal, especially notable among those over age 45. App Rej App Rej App Rej App Rej App Rej App Rej App Rej App Rej By AgeBy PartyTotal Now that an agreement with Iran has been reached between the negotiators, the U.S. Congress will be given 60 days to review the deal and vote on whether or not to lift U.S. sanctions on Iran under this deal. In your own opinion, do you think that Congress should vote to… Approve the deal and lift sanctions on Iran Reject the deal and NOT lift sanctions on Iran
  7. 7. 7 33% 44% 27% 11% 42% 34% 28% 29% 32% 56% 44% 64% 81% 49% 50% 61% 61% 59% Total DEM (52%) IND (29%) GOP (19%) 18-29 (22%) 30-44 (14%) 45-54 (14%) 55-64 (24%) 65+ (26%) App Dis Clear agreement in Jewish community that nuclear deal is not tough enough. Even Jewish Ds are split, all generations agree. App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis By AgeBy PartyTotal Please indicate which of the following statements you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right... Some/Other people say that the deal with Iran is not tough enough and will eventually lead to the Iranians getting a nuclear weapon. Some/Other people say that the deal with Iran is good progress and will limit Iran's nuclear program.
  8. 8. PRESENTING BALANCED ARGUMENTS: SUPPORT/OPPOSE THE DEAL “Supporters of the deal say that this agreement will verifiably prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Every pathway to developing the material necessary for a bomb is closed off, the inspections regime is the most intrusive and comprehensive in history, and it prevents yet another war in the region. There is no viable alternative to this deal.” * “Opponents of the deal say …” * Note that pro-deal statement taken from White House talking points: https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal
  9. 9. 9 30% 32% 32% 36% 34% 56% 53% 51% 49% 48% Please indicate which of these statements you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right… Only 1/3 of Jews agree with supporters. Opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran say that Iran has broken every agreement they have made in the past. This deal cannot be effective because it allows 24 days warning before an inspection, enough time for Iran to cover-up violations. And, it even allows Iran to be a member of the panel that decides where inspections can take place. Supporters of the deal say that this agreement will verifiably prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Every pathway to developing the material necessary for a bomb is closed off, the inspections regime is the most intrusive and comprehensive in history, and it prevents yet another war in the region. There is no viable alternative to this deal. Opponents of the deal say that this agreement gives away too much to Iran. Including continued nuclear research and development at a hardened underground military bunker, over $100 billion, a spot on the board that decides where inspections can take place, and the weapons embargo will be lifted despite Iran’s record on terrorism. Opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran say that the deal does too much to enhance Iran’s military. With the lifting of the conventional weapons and ballistic missile bans, Iran will have access to air defenses effective against U.S. planes, advanced missiles for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, and ballistic missiles that could carry a nuclear warhead. Opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran say that the U.S. should walk away. Instead of giving so many concessions to Iran, the alternative is to keep sanctions in place until Iran is ready to make a meaningful deal. This deal kicks the can down the road, and could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and a nuclear war for the next generation. Opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran say that the deal lifts sanctions which were unrelated to Iran’s nuclear program. For example, sanctions on Qasem Soleimani, the General who leads Iran’s Quds Force which is responsible for training and supporting terrorism throughout the region and the world.
  10. 10. 10 35% 48% 27% 13% 45% 36% 23% 33% 36% 51% 35% 61% 79% 41% 47% 60% 54% 53% Total DEM (52%) IND (29%) GOP (19%) 18-29 (22%) 30-44 (14%) 45-54 (14%) 55-64 (24%) 65+ (26%) 40% 53% 32% 16% 49% 43% 31% 36% 38%45% 30% 54% 76% 35% 38% 52% 50% 50% In your own opinion, do you think that Congress should vote to… Approve the deal and lift sanctions on Iran Reject the deal and NOT lift sanctions on Iran After balanced arguments, majority of Jews oppose. After Framework Statements Before Framework Statements
  11. 11. ADDRESSING CONCERNS WITH THE DEAL “Below are a few concerns that some foreign policy experts have said they have with the final deal that was negotiated with Iran. For each statement, please indicate if you personally find this issue concerning or not concerning…”
  12. 12. 12 62% 62% 56% 56% 56% 22% 21% 28% 28% 26% 84% 82% 84% 83% 83% Below are a few concerns that some foreign policy experts have said they have with the final deal that was negotiated with Iran. For each statement, please indicate if you personally find this issue concerning or not concerning… Over 8-in-10 Jews find criticisms re: deal concerning. Iran will receive an estimated $100billion-$150billion in this agreement, money that can be used to support terrorism. Iran will be given access to ballistic missiles. The only purpose for this technology is the delivery of nuclear warheads, raising the question of why Iran needs to make these purchases. The sanctions on Iran that are related to terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will also be lifted despite no progress or promises from Iran on these issues. “Very Concerning” “Smwt” Total Iran’s leaders say that what matters is Western acceptance that Iran will continue to have a nuclear program, and that when the agreement ends in 2025 Iran will be able to enrich uranium and plutonium without limits. The deal will lift the conventional arms embargo on Iran, allowing them to purchase next-generation weapons and ballistic missile technology.
  13. 13. 13 56% 55% 55% 51% 51% 24% 27% 26% 28% 27% 80% 82% 82% 78% 78% Below are a few concerns that some foreign policy experts have said they have with the final deal that was negotiated with Iran. For each statement, please indicate if you personally find this issue concerning or not concerning… All concerns have majorities “very concerned.” The inspections in the Iran deal require western intelligence agencies to turn over evidence of violations to Iran, then 24 days would pass before an inspection, giving Iran time for a cover-up. The board that decides where inspections can happen will include Iran, meaning there will be no anytime/anywhere inspections in Iran and no guarantee of access to unknown or military sites. Iran is allowed to continue do research and produce low-enriched radioactive materials under the deal, the type that could be used in a “dirty bomb” by terrorists. Iran will retain the hardened underground military bunker at Fordow, and will continue nuclear Research & Development at the facility. “Very Concerning” “Smwt” Total Iran is not required to fully disclose its previous work on nuclear bomb technology, making it nearly impossible for inspectors to catalogue any new violations.
  14. 14. 14 In your own opinion, do you think that Congress should vote to… Approve the deal and lift sanctions on Iran Reject the deal and NOT lift sanctions on Iran After addressing concerns, overwhelming opposition. 30% 40% 23% 13% 36% 35% 21% 27% 29% 58% 45% 68% 79% 52% 52% 65% 61% 60% Total DEM (52%) IND (29%) GOP (19%) 18-29 (22%) 30-44 (14%) 45-54 (14%) 55-64 (24%) 65+ (26%) 35% 48% 27% 13% 45% 36% 23% 33% 36% 51% 35% 61% 79% 41% 47% 60% 54% 53% 40% 53% 32% 16% 49% 43% 31% 36% 38%45% 30% 54% 76% 35% 38% 52% 50% 50% Before Framework Statements After Framework Statements After Concerns/Messages
  15. 15. Nathan Klein nathan@olivetreestrategies.com

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