Arab Spring and Frozen Peace
Palestinian Opinion, Summer 2011
Key findings from a national survey of 1,010 Palestinians Ad...
The research
Methodology:
 Face-to-Face survey of 1,010 random-sample Palestinian adults (18+)
 656 in the West Bank
 3...
Highlighted results
• Great ambivalence about Arab Spring – and do not see
Palestinian struggle as part of it.
• UN declar...
Highlighted results
• Majority support for Obama plan, though not a lot of confidence
in the US to watch out for Palestini...
The Arab Spring and the Palestinians
38
35
32
27
22
17
16
0 25 50 75 100Note: Asked of half sample.
Page 6July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
Pessimistic
Un...
13
34
11
17
31
29
19
11
23
57
33
47
59
60
43
14
5
63
58
14
34
20
8
12 35
33
41
88
74
64
47
35
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
...
The U.N. declaration of a Palestinian State
64
57
79
5 6
32
40
17
21
712 50
25
50
75
100
Support Oppose Support Oppose Support Oppose
Strongly support resolution Stro...
16
37
44
0
25
50
75
Bring the establishment of
an independent Palestinian
state closer
Set back the establishment
of an in...
41
19
41
15
0
25
50
75
100
"If the UN General Assembly votes to
recognize a Palestinian state it will help
strengthen the ...
2
2
2
1
83
36
23
23
18
7
4
0 25 50 75 100
Percent of total population
Note: Asked of half sample.
Page 12July 2011 | Green...
The Palestinian status
Majority in West Bank see things going in the
right direction – Gaza much more pessimistic
GazaWest Bank
“Generally speaki...
15
4 9 11
59
52
43
51
7 7 11 11
41
48
57
48
0
25
50
75
100
Well Not Well Well Not Well Well Not well Well Not Well
Not wel...
8
6
9
11
21
26
34
34
44
0 25 50
Percent of total population
Page 16July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
Egypt opening it...
60 61
70
22
17
8
35 34
29
22
27
17
0
25
50
75
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
Strongly approve St...
Fayyad too has seen a growth in approval,
though not quite as dramatic
Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done ...
38 40
2942
31
23
58 56
67
12
20
23
0
25
50
75
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
Strongly approve St...
42 36 12
34
55
77
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100 % cool (0-49 degrees) % Warm (51-100 degrees)
Feelings toward Ira...
22
50
73
10
0
25
50
75
100
Iran and its president, Ahmadinejad, are
friends of the Palestinian people.
Iran and its presid...
16
7
3
3
31
22
18
27
45
62
73
80
48
17
42
34
75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
Strongly Don't Believe Strongly Believe
“Next I will ...
Strong support for reconciliation, and belief that
it serves the national interest
Page 23July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Ro...
52 55
20
11
35
1333
38
0
25
50
75
100
Fatah will govern Hamas will take over Fatah will govern Hamas will take over
Fatah ...
12
7
31
15
23
12
2
4
14
7
10
6
28
20
41
35
37
30
52
67
8
42
24
51
0 25 50 75 100
2010
2011
2010
2011
2010
2011
DK 1-4: Not...
17
15
4646
16
3
13
47
2
20
5
19
0
25
50
Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas) Third Way Other
First Bar = All Palestinians Second Ba...
15
28
15
5
28
45
50
16
4
13
2
47
0
25
50
Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas) Third Way Other
First Bar = July 2009 Second Bar: Oct...
30
27
46
20
33
12
2
14
2
44
5
19
0
25
50
Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas) Third Way Other
Hamas also drops in Gaza
“I know the ...
Views of Israel and its stance on peace
30 28
32
35
65 69
59
18
1214
3434
0
25
50
75
100
Violent
Resistance
Diplomatic
Engagement
Violent
Resistance
Diplomatic
En...
51
75
71
36
65
50
62
71
57
30
65
77
6
66
0
25
50
75
100
Percent of total Percent Male Percent under 35 Percent less
educat...
60
37 35
56
65
51
81 79
48
75
30
62
53
7
0
25
50
75
100
Percent of total Percent family
doing well
Percent highest
priorit...
79
9
1
7
3
2
0
3
7
2
15
73
0 25 50 75 100
Of those who support violent resistance… Of those who support diplomatic engagem...
71
61
54
14
14
12
17
57
59
70
0 25 50 75 100
Of those who support violent resistance… Of those who support diplomatic enga...
72
58
56
16
12
38
39
47
52
59
0 25 50 75 100
Al-Jazeera
Al-Arabya
Pal. Braodcasting Corp.
Al-Aqsa
Al Manar
Al-Arabya
Al-Ja...
12
81
4
59
0
25
50
75
100
"Prime Minister Netanyahu is serious
about wanting peace and supporting a
two-state solution."
"...
Netanyahu plan: majority favor negotiating, not
boycotting
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently said that he is open ...
52
40
76
28
13
46
60
2134
22
57
23
0
25
50
75
100
Harms me
personally
Bad, but does not
harm me
personally
Harms me
person...
41
92
3 0
0
25
50
75
100
The capital of
Palestine
The capital of Israel The capital of both
Israel and Palestine
A neutral...
Obama proposal
27
71
50
0
25
50
75
100
A lot/Some Just a Little/Hardly at all
A lot Hardly at all
+44
Only a quarter trust US to advance ...
But a majority favors two-state solution with
Obama’s border parameters: 1967 with swaps
U.S. President Barack Obama recen...
But one third support formulation of
homelands for two peoples
Page 43July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
63
31
0
25
50...
The peace process and two-state solution
23
73 60
27
51
15
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Two-state solution with
independent Palestinian state side-
by-side with...
60
44
18
14
36
52
23
28
0
25
50
75
100
Accept two-state solution Will not accept two-state
solution
Accept two-state solut...
34
40
23
27
56
53
63
111312 5
13
0
25
50
75
100
Israel will exist Not Certain Israel will exist Not Certain Israel will ex...
30 25
22
60
52
12 12
30
0
25
50
75
100
Two-state solution, side
by side
Move to one Palestinian
state
Two-state solution, ...
30
66
16
32
0
25
50
75
100
"I can accept permanently a two-state
solution with one a homeland for the
Palestinian people l...
What will be the role of Islam?
26
69
16
45
0
25
50
75
100
I want to see a Palestinian state end up
similar to a Muslim country like Turkey.
I don't want ...
29
14
56
18
46
53
31
40
7
18 25
23
0
25
50
75
100
Run by Sharia Run by Civil Run by Sharia Run by Civil Run by Sharia Run ...
7 10
33
38
28
23 24 22
42 44
38
10
2
24
19
11
8
33
0
25
50
75
No Sharia Co-exist Strong
Sharia
No Sharia Co-exist Strong
S...
23
22
24
50
58
35
39
43
32
59
61
54
10
5
18
8
18
77
82
69
73
80
62
5
3
6
2
14
25
43
40
38
21
17
29
37
100 75 50 25 0 25 50...
82
14
68
80
25
50
75
100
Homosexuality should be
punished by law.
Homosexuality should not be
punished by law.
Punished, s...
Third intifada – aversion to violent strategies
61
43
31
26
38
55
0
25
50
75
100
Will occur Will not occur Will occur Will not occur Will occur Will not occur
Will occur ...
32
27
42
33 34
64
70
55
7 3
16
34
0
25
50
75
100
Support Oppose Support Oppose Support Oppose
Strongly support Strongly Op...
47
40
10
0
25
50
75
100
Helped Hurt Made no difference
Helped Hurt Made no difference
Nakba: majority says made no differe...
20 38
54
90
25
50
75
100
"The Palestinians crossing the border in
mass from Syria into the Golan were really
just being us...
Extremist actions and pulling back
90
84
91
42
84
19
34
27
59
27
7
8
7
72
62
61
53
29
22
14
100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100
Wrong Right
Denying Jewish presence a...
47
66
56
17
42
46
60
82
58
29
70
64
13
77
0
25
50
75
100
Percent of total Percent Male Percent under 35 Percent less
educa...
29
61
56
26
29
71
42
59
44
26
55
77
0
25
50
75
Percent of total Percent warm to Fatah Percent vote Fatah in
next election
...
67
51
57
23
19
67
63
54
18
16
0 25 50 75 100
Al-Arabya
Al-Jazeera
Pal. Braodcasting Corp.
Al-Aqsa
Al Manar
Al-Arabya
Al-Ja...
Majorities favor the kidnapping of Shalit,
oppose his release
Do you favor or oppose the release of the
Israeli soldier, G...
75
72
64
55
53
48
39
44
29
24
20
25
20 42
0 25 50 75 100
Very important
Things Palestinians can do for peace
“Now I'd like...
24
17
16
15
7
7
4
6
2
2
0 25 50 75
Very important
Map, recognition, Israeli governance of
Jerusalem rated extremely low
“N...
Media use – web a key tool for Palestinians
71
17
5
3
0
4
80
7
8
3
2
0
0 25 50 75 100
West Bank Gaza
Television top source of news in times of crisis
In times of deve...
70
61
59
23
15
6
12
3
3
2
6
2
1
0
17
56
56
41
23
32
18
8
15
11
11
7
9
9
5
3
0 25 50 75 100
(Al-Arabya)
(Al-Jazeera)
(Pales...
55
57
19
22
2
4
6
1
2
25
5
25
21
11
4
21
11
7
5
5
0
52
0 25 50 75 100
(Al-Quds)
(Al-Ayyam)
(Al-Hayat Al-Jadidah)
(Al-Hayat...
61
43
21
1
16
23
13
14
2
2
22
3
6
13
40
50
22
7
18
4
7
4
13
17
0 25 50 75 100
(Radio Tariq Al Mahabeh)
(Radio Ajyal)
(Loca...
70
59
11
54
15
72
70
10
68
13
52
40
12
28
19
0 15 30 45 60 75
% Yes: Total % Yes: West Bank % Yes: Gaza
Do you…
Have a Twi...
Facebook use is high
“Do you have a
Facebook
account or not?”
“(If they have Facebook) How often would you
say you log int...
52
24 23
33 29
38
78
17
5
Daily or More Monthly or More Less than Once a
Month
48
33
20
32 36 32
68
28
4
Daily or More Mon...
www.greenbergresear
ch.com
Washington, DC
10 G Street NE,
Suite 500
Washington, DC 20002
Ph: +1 202 478 8300
Fax: +1 202 4...
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2011 07 palestinian-survey_charts

  1. 1. Arab Spring and Frozen Peace Palestinian Opinion, Summer 2011 Key findings from a national survey of 1,010 Palestinians Adults in the West Bank and Gaza, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner June 20 through July 8, 2011
  2. 2. The research Methodology:  Face-to-Face survey of 1,010 random-sample Palestinian adults (18+)  656 in the West Bank  353 in the Gaza Strip  Margin of Error: 3.1% at 95% confidence  3.8% in the West Bank  5.2% in Gaza  Survey conducted June 22 through July 8, 2011, by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner via Palestinian research partner, “Palestinian Center for Public Opinion” directed by Dr. Nabil Kukali. Page 2July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  3. 3. Highlighted results • Great ambivalence about Arab Spring – and do not see Palestinian struggle as part of it. • UN declaration of independent Palestinian state not of high interest or priority for Palestinians. • Fatah and PA leadership have rising standing, while Hamas and Iran has crashed in public support, especially in Gaza. • This is a period of great aversion to violence and opposition to a Third Intifada. • This is a period for negotiation, though no belief that current Israeli government interested. • Shift to material well-being – with greater focus on jobs and investment, health care and governmental performance Page 3July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  4. 4. Highlighted results • Majority support for Obama plan, though not a lot of confidence in the US to watch out for Palestinian interests. • Majority say negotiate, not boycott Netanyahu’s plan, despite its parameters. • One third accept agreement with two homelands for two peoples, but majority prefer path to one state. Near universal support for Jerusalem as Palestinian capital, where Jewish history is denied. • Broad belief in key parts of Hamas charter expressing jihad against the Jews – but do not accept part rejecting peaceful solution. • Moderate version of Islam predominant in territories, though Gaza more supportive of Sharia law. Page 4July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  5. 5. The Arab Spring and the Palestinians
  6. 6. 38 35 32 27 22 17 16 0 25 50 75 100Note: Asked of half sample. Page 6July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Pessimistic Uncertain Pleased Doubtful Hopeful Worried Proud Arab Spring reactions divided and uncertain “Of the following adjectives, which TWO best describe how you feel about the recent events in the Arab World?”
  7. 7. 13 34 11 17 31 29 19 11 23 57 33 47 59 60 43 14 5 63 58 14 34 20 8 12 35 33 41 88 74 64 47 35 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 Strongly disagree Strongly agree Palestinians not part of Arab Spring; concerns about instability Palestinians are not really a part of the revolutions taking place in the Arab countries. Now I'm going to read you a series of statements. After I read each statement, please tell me whether you agree or disagree. Page 7July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | The events in Libya and Syria set powerful, negative examples for change in the Palestinian territories. The revolutions in the Arab world weaken Israel. The revolutions in the Arab world offer new opportunities to Palestinians. The events in Tunisia and Egypt set powerful, positive examples for change in the Palestinian territories. I worry that the revolutions in Arab countries will bring instability to the Palestinian territories. The revolutions in the Arab World are taking attention away from the Palestinian cause. The events in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere make me proud to be Arab.
  8. 8. The U.N. declaration of a Palestinian State
  9. 9. 64 57 79 5 6 32 40 17 21 712 50 25 50 75 100 Support Oppose Support Oppose Support Oppose Strongly support resolution Strongly oppose resolution +62 Broad but not intense support for seeking a U.N. resolution, especially in Gaza Thinking about possible actions regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Some Palestinian leaders, like Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, have voiced an intention to seek recognition of a Palestinian state from the United Nations soon, without a negotiated peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE seeking a UN resolution recognizing a declared Palestinian state without a peace agreement between the parties? GazaWest BankTotal Page 9July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | +17+32
  10. 10. 16 37 44 0 25 50 75 Bring the establishment of an independent Palestinian state closer Set back the establishment of an independent Palestinian state Make no difference Only 40 percent think U.N. action will bring independent state closer “Do you think a UN resolution recognizing a Palestinian state will bring the establishment of a truly independent Palestinian state closer, set back the establishment of a truly independent Palestinian state, or make no difference?” Page 10July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  11. 11. 41 19 41 15 0 25 50 75 100 "If the UN General Assembly votes to recognize a Palestinian state it will help strengthen the position of the Palestinian Authority and make an agreement with Israel more likely." "If the UN General Assembly votes to recognize a Palestinian state without any negotiations between Israel and Palestinians, it will make an agreement with Israel less likely." Make agreement more likely, strongly Make agreement less likely, strongly +/-0 Palestinians evenly divided on what U.N. recognition without negotiation will mean for a peace agreement with Israel “Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.” Page 11July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  12. 12. 2 2 2 1 83 36 23 23 18 7 4 0 25 50 75 100 Percent of total population Note: Asked of half sample. Page 12July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Abbas: address jobs, health care, education and movement but not UN Promote mass protests against Israel Reduce the corruption in the government Secure foreign aid to the Palestinians Pursue peace negotiations with Israel Get the UN to recognize a Palestinian state Increase security with Palestinians policing more areas Build up the Palestinian government and institutions to prepare for becoming a Palestinian state Get Israel to lift roadblocks and ease movement Strengthen schools and education Expand healthcare services and solve water shortages Create new jobs “Which TWO of the following are the highest priority for President Abbas in dealing with national questions facing the Palestinian people?”
  13. 13. The Palestinian status
  14. 14. Majority in West Bank see things going in the right direction – Gaza much more pessimistic GazaWest Bank “Generally speaking, do you think that things in the West Bank/Gaza are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? Page 14July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  15. 15. 15 4 9 11 59 52 43 51 7 7 11 11 41 48 57 48 0 25 50 75 100 Well Not Well Well Not Well Well Not well Well Not Well Not well at all Very well In Gaza, however, quality of life has increased – while slipping in West Bank GazaWest Bank “And generally speaking, how would you say things are going for your family - would you say things are going very well, well, not too well, or not well at all?” Oct. 2010 July 2011 Oct. 2010 July 2011 Page 15July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  16. 16. 8 6 9 11 21 26 34 34 44 0 25 50 Percent of total population Page 16July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Egypt opening its borders and issuing work permits A peace deal with Israel Websites that will offer free ads on job openings Seminars and free training for local people to obtain hi-tech related jobs and start their own companies More foreign aid Investment in agriculture Israel opening its borders and issuing work permits Getting Israel to lift more checkpoints so there is more freedom of movement Microfinance that can give seed money for starting new companies Micro-financing, ease of movement, permits represent important economic moves “Which TWO would be the most help in creating more good jobs for Palestinians?”
  17. 17. 60 61 70 22 17 8 35 34 29 22 27 17 0 25 50 75 Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Strongly approve Strongly disapprove October 2010July 2009 July 2011 After holding steady, Abbas approval has increased 10 points since October 2010 Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Mahmoud Abbas as President of the Palestinian Authority ?
  18. 18. Fayyad too has seen a growth in approval, though not quite as dramatic Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Salam Fayyad as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority? Approve Disapprove Oct. 2010 Oct. 2010July 2011 July 2011 Page 18July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  19. 19. 38 40 2942 31 23 58 56 67 12 20 23 0 25 50 75 Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Note: Only of Gaza respondents. 2009 question asked “in the Palestinian territories.” October 2010July 2009 July 2011 Disapproval of Hamas is Gaza has dramatically increased in recent months “Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by Hamas in Gaza?” July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Page 19
  20. 20. 42 36 12 34 55 77 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 % cool (0-49 degrees) % Warm (51-100 degrees) Feelings toward Iran fallen dramatically “Now, I’d like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and countries, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person, country, or organization…” Iran July 2011 Iran Mean: 48.0 Mean: 19.2Mean: 40.4 Page 20July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Iran July 2009 October 2010
  21. 21. 22 50 73 10 0 25 50 75 100 Iran and its president, Ahmadinejad, are friends of the Palestinian people. Iran and its president, Ahmadinejad, care about themselves and their own agenda. Iran is a friend, strongly Iran has own agenda, strongly +51 Iran not friends of the Palestinian people – has its own agenda “Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.” Page 21July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  22. 22. 16 7 3 3 31 22 18 27 45 62 73 80 48 17 42 34 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 Strongly Don't Believe Strongly Believe “Next I will read some statements that come from the Hamas charter. For each statement please state whether you believe it or do not believe it.” Page 22July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | When our enemies usurp some Islamic lands, Jihad becomes a duty binding on all Muslims. In order to face the usurpation of Palestine by the Jews, we have no escape from raising the banner of Jihad. We must spread the spirit of Jihad among the (Islamic) Umma, clash with the enemies and join the ranks of the Jihad fighters. Peace initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement. There is no solution to the Palestinian problem except by Jihad. The Day of Judgment will not come about until Muslims fight the Jews, when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Muslims, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him. Only the Gharkad tree, would not do that because it is one of the trees of the Jews. For our struggle against the Jews is extremely wide-ranging and grave, so much so that it will need all the loyal efforts we can wield, to be followed by further steps and reinforced by successive battalions from the multifarious Arab and Islamic world, until the enemies are defeated and Allah's victory prevails. But elements of Hamas charter find strong support – except rejection of a peaceful solution
  23. 23. Strong support for reconciliation, and belief that it serves the national interest Page 23July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 81 6 1727 0 25 50 75 100 Support Oppose Strongly support Strongly oppose Thinking of the recent agreement between Hamas and Fatah, do you believe it serves the Palestinian national interest right now or does not serve the Palestinian national interest right now? 14 67 0 25 50 75 100 Serves interest Does not serve interest Serves interest Does not serve interest Personally, do you support the recent agreement between Hamas and Fatah?
  24. 24. 52 55 20 11 35 1333 38 0 25 50 75 100 Fatah will govern Hamas will take over Fatah will govern Hamas will take over Fatah will govern, strongly Hamas will take over, strongly Few now expect a Hamas takeover Page 24July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Statement One: When a Palestinian state is created, Fatah will be able to govern it. Statement Two: When a Palestinian state is created Hamas will take over and lead it. +17 July 2011October 2010 +42 Note: Asked of half sample.
  25. 25. 12 7 31 15 23 12 2 4 14 7 10 6 28 20 41 35 37 30 52 67 8 42 24 51 0 25 50 75 100 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 DK 1-4: Not enthusiastic 5: In the middle 6-9: Enthusiastic 10: Very Total 6-10 Gaza 87 West Bank 78 All Palestinians 81 Page 25 | November 2010 Enthusiasm for voting increases dramatically in wake of reconciliation Thinking about the next Palestinian Authority elections, how likely are you to vote on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you are certain to vote and 1 means you are certain not to vote? You can choose any number from 1 to 10. 80 49 61 Page 25July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  26. 26. 17 15 4646 16 3 13 47 2 20 5 19 0 25 50 Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas) Third Way Other First Bar = All Palestinians Second Bar = West Bank Third Bar = Gaza Page 26 | November 2010 Were elections held today, Fatah clearly dominates across territories I know the election is a long way away, but if parliamentary elections were held today, for whom would you vote if the parties were” Page 26July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  27. 27. 15 28 15 5 28 45 50 16 4 13 2 47 0 25 50 Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas) Third Way Other First Bar = July 2009 Second Bar: October 2010 Third Bar = July 2011 In West Bank, sharp decline for Hamas, strengthening of Fatah, other parties since Oct. “I know the election is a long way away, but if parliamentary elections were held today, for whom would you vote if the parties were…” Page 27July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  28. 28. 30 27 46 20 33 12 2 14 2 44 5 19 0 25 50 Fatah Change/Reform (Hamas) Third Way Other Hamas also drops in Gaza “I know the election is a long way away, but if parliamentary elections were held today, for whom would you vote if the parties were…” First Bar = July 2009 Second Bar: October 2010 Third Bar = July 2011 Page 28July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  29. 29. Views of Israel and its stance on peace
  30. 30. 30 28 32 35 65 69 59 18 1214 3434 0 25 50 75 100 Violent Resistance Diplomatic Engagement Violent Resistance Diplomatic Engagement Violent Resistance Diplomatic Engagement Violent resistence, strongly Diplomatic engagement, strongly +27 A strong majority believe that now is the time for diplomatic engagement, not violence GazaWest BankTotal Statement One: This is a time for violent resistance against Israel. Statement Two: This is the time for diplomatic engagement with Israel. +41+35 Page 30July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  31. 31. 51 75 71 36 65 50 62 71 57 30 65 77 6 66 0 25 50 75 100 Percent of total Percent Male Percent under 35 Percent less educated Percent low income Percent attend weekly Friday prayers Percent ID Hamas Of those who support violent resistance… Of those who support diplomatic engagement… Those supporting violent resistance are less educated, lower income, more religious than those who supporting diplomatic engagement Page 31July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Statement One: This is a time for violent resistance against Israel. Statement Two: This is the time for diplomatic engagement with Israel.
  32. 32. 60 37 35 56 65 51 81 79 48 75 30 62 53 7 0 25 50 75 100 Percent of total Percent family doing well Percent highest priority: jobs Percent vote Hamas Percent approve Abbas Percent accept 2-state Percent believe peace possible Of those who support violent resistance… Of those who support diplomatic engagement… The 30 percent who believe this time for violent resistance are doing somewhat better, and more likely to vote Hamas in next election Page 32July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Statement One: This is a time for violent resistance against Israel. Statement Two: This is the time for diplomatic engagement with Israel.
  33. 33. 79 9 1 7 3 2 0 3 7 2 15 73 0 25 50 75 100 Of those who support violent resistance… Of those who support diplomatic engagement… Television top source of news in times of crisis In times of developing crisis, would you say you get more of your information from television, radio, newspaper, Facebook or other internet sites? None Newspaper Facebook Internet Radio Television Page 33July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  34. 34. 71 61 54 14 14 12 17 57 59 70 0 25 50 75 100 Of those who support violent resistance… Of those who support diplomatic engagement… Very little difference in media habit among those supporting violent resistance/diplomatic engagement “Do you…” Page 34July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Have a Twitter account? Watch videos on YouTube? Visit Israeli websites? Have a Facebook account? Have access to a reliable internet connection, through either your home, work, or mobile phone
  35. 35. 72 58 56 16 12 38 39 47 52 59 0 25 50 75 100 Al-Jazeera Al-Arabya Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al-Aqsa Al Manar Al-Arabya Al-Jazeera Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al Manar Al-Aqsa Of those who support violent resistance… Of those who support diplomatic engagement… Top television channels do differ between the ideologies Supporting Diplomatic Engagement Page 35July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Supporting Violent Resistance Generally, which television stations do you watch most to get information about international issues?
  36. 36. 12 81 4 59 0 25 50 75 100 "Prime Minister Netanyahu is serious about wanting peace and supporting a two-state solution." "Prime Minister Netanyahu isn't really serious about wanting peace and supporting a two state solution." Netanyahu serious, strongly Netanyahu not serious, strongly +69 Disbelieve that Netanyahu is serious about wanting peace, supporting a solution “Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.” Page 36July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  37. 37. Netanyahu plan: majority favor negotiating, not boycotting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently said that he is open to a plan that would create a Palestinian state using pieces of biblical Israel, but that he would not consider any plan that divides Jerusalem and that Palestinian refugees should settle in Palestine, not Israel. Should the Palestinian Authority go to the negotiating table with these parameters, or should they continue to boycott negotiations? 52 51 53 14 19 43 45 40 12 12 1116 0 25 50 75 100 Go to negotiating table Continue to boycott Go to negotiating table Continue to boycott Go to negotiating table Continue to boycott Negotiate, strongly Continue to boycott, strongly +9 +13+6 GazaWest BankTotal Page 37July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  38. 38. 52 40 76 28 13 46 60 2134 22 57 23 0 25 50 75 100 Harms me personally Bad, but does not harm me personally Harms me personally Bad, but does not harm me personally Harms me personally Bad, but does not harm me personally Harms me personally, seriously Not harm me personally, seriously +6 +55+20 GazaWest BankTotal Page 38July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Personal harm from settlement expansion seen significantly more in Gaza than West Bank Statement One: Israeli settlement expansion harms me personally. Statement Two: Israeli settlement expansion is a bad thing but it does not harm me personally.
  39. 39. 41 92 3 0 0 25 50 75 100 The capital of Palestine The capital of Israel The capital of both Israel and Palestine A neutral, international city Not the capital of either Israel or Palestine Jerusalem should be capital of a Palestinian state “If the Palestinians were to be given their own state, which of the following best describes what you think should happen to Jerusalem. Should it be…” Page 39July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  40. 40. Obama proposal
  41. 41. 27 71 50 0 25 50 75 100 A lot/Some Just a Little/Hardly at all A lot Hardly at all +44 Only a quarter trust US to advance Palestinian interests “How much can Palestinians trust the United States and President Barack Obama to help advance the interests of the Palestinian people? Would you say that they can trust the US and President Barack Obama A LOT, some, just a little, or NOT AT ALL?” Page 41July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  42. 42. But a majority favors two-state solution with Obama’s border parameters: 1967 with swaps U.S. President Barack Obama recently announced principles that should be a foundation for any peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. He said the border between Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually-agreed swaps of land to take account of realities on the ground so both sides can achieve a secure and just peace. Would you favor or oppose a two-state solution with these borders? 57 40 5 50 25 50 75 100 Support two-state solution with Obama parameters Oppose two-state solution with Obama parameters Strongly support Strongly oppose +17 Page 42July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  43. 43. But one third support formulation of homelands for two peoples Page 43July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 63 31 0 25 50 75 100 Accept Reject Accept Reject President Obama said there should be two states: Palestine as the homeland for the Palestinian people and Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people. Do you think PALESTINIAN LEADERS should accept or reject that concept? 61 34 0 25 50 75 100 Accept Reject Accept Reject President Obama said there should be two states: Palestine as the homeland for the Palestinian people and Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people. Do YOU accept or reject that concept?
  44. 44. The peace process and two-state solution
  45. 45. 23 73 60 27 51 15 -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 Two-state solution with independent Palestinian state side- by-side with Israel as a Jewish state Two-state solution A one-state solution % Warm (51-100) % Cool (0-49) Page 45July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Mean: 59.4Mean: 33.9Mean: 19.1 “Now, I’d like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and countries, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person, country, or organization…” Feelings towards different solution types
  46. 46. 60 44 18 14 36 52 23 28 0 25 50 75 100 Accept two-state solution Will not accept two-state solution Accept two-state solution Will not accept two-state solution Accept two-state, strongly Will not accept two-state, strongly +24 This represents a huge drop in acceptance of a two-state solution Page 46July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | +8 July 2011October 2010 Statement One: I will accept a two-state solution. Statement Two: I will not accept a two- state solution.
  47. 47. 34 40 23 27 56 53 63 111312 5 13 0 25 50 75 100 Israel will exist Not Certain Israel will exist Not Certain Israel will exist Not Certain Israel will exist, strongly Not certain Israel will exist, strongly +40 Palestinians uncertain about Israel’s existence as a Jewish state in 25 years GazaWest BankTotal Statement One: I am certain Israel will exist 25 years from now as a Jewish state with a Jewish majority. Statement Two: I am not so certain that Israel will exist 25 years from now as a Jewish state with a Jewish majority.. +13+22 Page 47July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  48. 48. 30 25 22 60 52 12 12 30 0 25 50 75 100 Two-state solution, side by side Move to one Palestinian state Two-state solution, side by side Move to one Palestinian state Two-state solution side by side, strongly Move to one Palestinian state, strongly Page 48July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | +30 July 2011October 2010 +27 Real goal is to move to one Palestinian state Statement One: The best goal is for a two-state solution that keeps two states living side by side. Statement Two: The real goal should be to start with two states but then move to it all being one Palestinian state. Note: Asked of half sample.
  49. 49. 30 66 16 32 0 25 50 75 100 "I can accept permanently a two-state solution with one a homeland for the Palestinian people living side-by-side with Israel, a homeland for the Jewish people." "The real goal should to start with a two state solution but then move to it all being one Palestinian state." Accept two-state solution, strongly Move to all one Palestinian state, strongly +36 Two-thirds believe that the real goal should be to move beyond a two-state solution to a single Palestinian state “Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.” Page 49July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  50. 50. What will be the role of Islam?
  51. 51. 26 69 16 45 0 25 50 75 100 I want to see a Palestinian state end up similar to a Muslim country like Turkey. I don't want to see a Palestinian state end up like Turkey because it is too secular and Islam has too little influence there. Like Turkey, strongly Not like Turkey, strongly +43 Palestinians view Turkey as too secular, don’t want to see state go that route “Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.” Page 51July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  52. 52. 29 14 56 18 46 53 31 40 7 18 25 23 0 25 50 75 100 Run by Sharia Run by Civil Run by Sharia Run by Civil Run by Sharia Run by Civil Sharia Law, strongly Civil Law, strongly +25 Plurality prefer a Palestinian state run by Civil Law; Sharia preference driven by Gaza GazaWest BankTotal Statement One: A Palestinian state should be run by Sharia Law. Statement Two: A Palestinian state should be run by Civil Law. +39+17 Page 52July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  53. 53. 7 10 33 38 28 23 24 22 42 44 38 10 2 24 19 11 8 33 0 25 50 75 No Sharia Co-exist Strong Sharia No Sharia Co-exist Strong Sharia No Sharia Co-exist Strong Sharia Plurality believe that Sharia can co-exist with civil law Gaza “Which ONE of the following statements best describes your personal attitude toward Sharia Law?” Page 53January 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | West BankTotal Sharia has no place in civil society Following Sharia is a personal religious choice made by individuals and not the state Sharia can co-exist with civil law by overseeing family and religious matters for Muslim members of society Sharia can co-exist with civil law by overseeing family and religious matters for everyone Sharia should oversee all aspects of society but should cede ultimate authority to democratic rule of law Sharia should be the only rule of law
  54. 54. 23 22 24 50 58 35 39 43 32 59 61 54 10 5 18 8 18 77 82 69 73 80 62 5 3 6 2 14 25 43 40 38 21 17 29 37 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 Total WB Gaza Total WB Gaza Total WB Gaza Not well at all Very Well Opposition to gender discrimination, arranged marriages Parents ought to choose their children's future spouses. Women should not be allowed to drive a car Women and men should never touch in public Next I will read a list of things some people believe. For each one, please tell me if you agree or disagree Page 54January 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  55. 55. 82 14 68 80 25 50 75 100 Homosexuality should be punished by law. Homosexuality should not be punished by law. Punished, strongly Not punished, strongly +68 Homosexuality should be discouraged by society and punished by law “Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.” 15 81 5 74 0 25 50 75 100 Homosexuality is a way of life that should be accepted by society. Homosexuality is a way of life that should be discouraged by society. Accepted, strongly Discouraged, strongly +66 Page 55July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  56. 56. Third intifada – aversion to violent strategies
  57. 57. 61 43 31 26 38 55 0 25 50 75 100 Will occur Will not occur Will occur Will not occur Will occur Will not occur Will occur Will not occur +5 Majority of Palestinians do not believe there will be a third intifada “Some Palestinians have called for a Third Intifada. Do you believe a Third Intifada will occur or not occur in the near future?” +35+24 GazaWest BankTotal Page 57July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  58. 58. 32 27 42 33 34 64 70 55 7 3 16 34 0 25 50 75 100 Support Oppose Support Oppose Support Oppose Strongly support Strongly Oppose +32 +13+43 GazaWest BankTotal Majority of Palestinians would oppose a third intifada “Would you support or oppose a third intifada?” Page 58July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  59. 59. 47 40 10 0 25 50 75 100 Helped Hurt Made no difference Helped Hurt Made no difference Nakba: majority says made no difference or hurt “Now thinking of the Palestinian protests late last month, around the Nakba, and in early June. Do you believe those protests helped the Palestinian cause, hurt the Palestinian cause, or made no difference?” Page 59July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 57
  60. 60. 20 38 54 90 25 50 75 100 "The Palestinians crossing the border in mass from Syria into the Golan were really just being using by President Assad to deflect attention from his problems." "The Palestinians crossing the border in mass from Syria into Golan were a good way for Palestinians to express their grievances and helped the cause." Being used by Assad, strongly Expressing their grievances, strongly +34 Crossing border from Syria into Golan a good way to express grievances “Please tell me whether agree with the first statement more or the second statement more, even if neither is exactly right.” Page 60July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  61. 61. Extremist actions and pulling back
  62. 62. 90 84 91 42 84 19 34 27 59 27 7 8 7 72 62 61 53 29 22 14 100 75 50 25 0 25 50 75 100 Wrong Right Denying Jewish presence and honoring martyrs ‘right’ but not firing rockets at civilians The Israeli armed response to the boats carrying supplies to the Gaza strip in May 2010 Denying that Palestinians have a long history in Jerusalem going back thousands of years. Israeli firing rockets at armed fighters who are operating from civilian areas The Israeli economic blockade of the Gaza strip because of rockets being fired into Israel. The killings in Itamar Teaching songs and chants in Palestinian schools that talk about hating the Jews. Firing rockets at Israeli cities and citizens. Naming streets after Palestinian suicide bombers like Dalal al Mughrabi who killed civilians in Israel Denying that Jews have a long history in Jerusalem going back thousands of years. The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Palestinian groups and holding them hostage “Now I am going to read you a series of statements. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is right or wrong.” Page 62January 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Note: All are asked of half sample.
  63. 63. 47 66 56 17 42 46 60 82 58 29 70 64 13 77 0 25 50 75 100 Percent of total Percent Male Percent under 35 Percent less educated Percent low income Percent attend weekly Friday prayers Percent ID Hamas Percent of those who think killings in Itamar RIGHT… Percent of those who think killings in Itamar WRONG… Those believing Itamar killings are ‘right’ are young; those thinking it ‘wrong’ are less educated and significantly lower income Page 63July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | “Now I am going to read you a series of statements. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is right or wrong… the killings in Itamar.” Note: Asked of half sample.
  64. 64. 29 61 56 26 29 71 42 59 44 26 55 77 0 25 50 75 Percent of total Percent warm to Fatah Percent vote Fatah in next election Percent support violent resistence Percent accept 2-state Percent believe peace possible Of those who think killings in Itamar RIGHT… Of those who think killings in Itamar WRONG… The 30 percent who see Itamar killings right are less likely to accept two-state solution, slightly more likely to vote Fatah in next election Page 64July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | “Now I am going to read you a series of statements. For each one, please tell me whether you think it is right or wrong… the killings in Itamar.” No difference support for violent over diplomatic engagement Note: Asked of half sample.
  65. 65. 67 51 57 23 19 67 63 54 18 16 0 25 50 75 100 Al-Arabya Al-Jazeera Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al-Aqsa Al Manar Al-Arabya Al-Jazeera Pal. Braodcasting Corp. Al Manar Al-Aqsa Percent of those think killings in Itamar RIGHT… Percent of those think killings in Itamar WRONG… Top television channels do differ between the ideologies, particularly Al-Jazeera Killings in Itamar WRONG Page 65July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Killings in Itamar RIGHT Generally, which television stations do you watch most to get information about international issues? Note: Asked of half sample.
  66. 66. Majorities favor the kidnapping of Shalit, oppose his release Do you favor or oppose the release of the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit? Do you favor or oppose the kidnaping of the Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit? Page 66July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 51 34 0 25 50 75 100 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose 29 56 0 25 50 75 100 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose
  67. 67. 75 72 64 55 53 48 39 44 29 24 20 25 20 42 0 25 50 75 100 Very important Things Palestinians can do for peace “Now I'd like to read you a list of actions that PALESTINIANS might take as steps toward making peace. After each, please tell me how important that step would be - would it be very important, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important toward making peace?” Hamas agreeing to disarm Pressuring Hamas to release Israeli solider Gilad Shalit Hamas renouncing terrorism Ending the call for the killing of civilians Official education curriculum teaching children the benefits of peace and co-existence Page 67July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | Ending the practice of naming of streets and squares after martyrs who killed civilians Pressuring Hamas to end rocket fire from Gaza
  68. 68. 24 17 16 15 7 7 4 6 2 2 0 25 50 75 Very important Map, recognition, Israeli governance of Jerusalem rated extremely low “Now I'd like to read you a list of actions that Israel might take as steps toward making peace. After each, please tell me how important that step would be - would it be very important, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important toward making peace?” Allow settlers who want to stay and become citizens of Palestine to do so Agree to let Israel continue to govern Jerusalem so long as Muslims can continue to live and pray there. Recognize Israel as the Nation State of the Jewish people Agree to land swaps for Israel to keep major settlement blocks in exchange for other land Depicting Israel on a map of the region in schoolbooks and official documents to show it exists Page 68July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  69. 69. Media use – web a key tool for Palestinians
  70. 70. 71 17 5 3 0 4 80 7 8 3 2 0 0 25 50 75 100 West Bank Gaza Television top source of news in times of crisis In times of developing crisis, would you say you get more of your information from television, radio, newspaper, Facebook or other internet sites? None Newspaper Facebook Internet Radio Television Page 70July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  71. 71. 70 61 59 23 15 6 12 3 3 2 6 2 1 0 17 56 56 41 23 32 18 8 15 11 11 7 9 9 5 3 0 25 50 75 100 (Al-Arabya) (Al-Jazeera) (Palestinian Broadcasting Corporation) (Al Manar) (Al-Aqsa TV) (LBC) (BBC Arabic) (Al Hurra) (The BBC) (Al-Quds Educational TV) (Israeli TV Channel 1/2/10) (CNN) (RT) (Nile News) (Other stations) West Bank Gaza Al-Arabya replaces Al-Jazeera; Al-Jazeera, Palestinian Broadcasting Corp round out top 3 Generally, which television stations do you watch most to get information about international issues? Page 71July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  72. 72. 55 57 19 22 2 4 6 1 2 25 5 25 21 11 4 21 11 7 5 5 0 52 0 25 50 75 100 (Al-Quds) (Al-Ayyam) (Al-Hayat Al-Jadidah) (Al-Hayat) (Falasteen) (Al Manar) (Wafa News Agency) (Free Palestine) (Local newspapers) (Other) (None) West Bank Gaza Al-Quds, Al-Ayyam reach the most Palestinian readers; Gaza less likely to look to print for news Generally, which newspapers/magazines do you read to get information about international issues? Page 72July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  73. 73. 61 43 21 1 16 23 13 14 2 2 22 3 6 13 40 50 22 7 18 4 7 4 13 17 0 25 50 75 100 (Radio Tariq Al Mahabeh) (Radio Ajyal) (Local stations) (Gaza FM) (Holy Quran Radio) (Radio Sawa) (BBC Arabic) (Angham Radio) (Voice of America) (Birzeit Outland) Other None West Bank Gaza Radio Tariq Al Mahabek, Radio Ajyal top in West Bank; Gaza looks local especially to Gaza FM Generally, which radio stations do you listen to for information about international issues? Page 73July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  74. 74. 70 59 11 54 15 72 70 10 68 13 52 40 12 28 19 0 15 30 45 60 75 % Yes: Total % Yes: West Bank % Yes: Gaza Do you… Have a Twitter account? Watch videos on YouTube? Visit Israeli websites? Have a Facebook account? Have access to a reliable internet connection, through either your home, work, or mobile phone Page 74 | November 2010 Page 74July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  75. 75. Facebook use is high “Do you have a Facebook account or not?” “(If they have Facebook) How often would you say you log into your Facebook Account? “(If they have Facebook) And how often would you say you update your Facebook page? 63 26 11 64 24 11 60 30 9 Daily or More Monthly or More Less than Once a Month Page 75July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner |
  76. 76. 52 24 23 33 29 38 78 17 5 Daily or More Monthly or More Less than Once a Month 48 33 20 32 36 32 68 28 4 Daily or More Monthly or More Less than Once a Month Total West Bank Gaza Twitter use not as pervasive, but those who use in Gaza, use often Yes 15% No 85% “(If they have Twitter) How often would you say you post to your Twitter account? Page 76July 2011 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | “(If they have Twitter) And how often would you say you read your Twitter feed? “Do you have a Twitter account?”
  77. 77. www.greenbergresear ch.com Washington, DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 Ph: +1 202 478 8300 Fax: +1 202 478 8301 London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: +44 (0) 207 499 5204 Fax: +44 (0) 207 499 5284

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