causal inference did difference-in-difference political methodology dd diff-in-diff political science confounder selection retrospective intervention effects observational studies voting behavior proximity model issue voting directional model regression discontinuity design natural experiments rdd 差分の差分法 role-playing active learning electoral system conjoint analysis コンジョイント分析 cjoint 政治的有効性感覚 無党派層 日韓比較 選挙公約 선거공약 選挙公報 manifesto #선거공약 #manifesto #選挙公報 #選挙公約
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