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Optimization vs Rule-based Simulation in Regional
Water Management Modeling
Tingju Zhu
International Food Policy Research ...
Regional Water Management Issues
River Basins are
Coupled Natural-
Human Systems!
Engineering-Economic IssuesWater Management Issues
Water Management Issues
Variants of Optimization and Simulation Models
for Regional Water Management
 Optimization models
 Rule-based simulation...
An Optimization Model
Example:
Climate Change & California
Water Resources
California Value Integrated Network
 Statewide integrated
engineering-optimization
model (CALVIN)
 Integrates hydrology,...
Optimization Components
Objective: Maximize net economic benefits
Decisions: Reservoir releases, storage
allocations
Const...
Optimized Rules vs Dynamic
Optimization for Flood Protection under
Climate Change
Sacramento Valley, California
Yolo Bypass Downtown
Sacramento
Levee and Dam
Safety
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Existing Levee Setback (ft)
ExistingLeveeHeight(ft)
Do nothin...
95 9099 75 50 25 10 1 0.15 0.52
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Percent Chance Exceedence
Three-dayFlow(m3
/s)
HCM2000
HCM2025...
Move Backward?
Levees height increases over time,
and setback expansion seems
desirable in distant future …
Setback expansion
for increased
channel capacity
Continuously increasing
flood protection
standard driven by
economic grow...
Expected annual
flood damage
Land value
loss
Levee
construction cost
Optimization vs rule-based simulation
 Optimization can explore many options ‘quickly’ and
identify promising solutions f...
Thank you!
Tingju Zhu
t.zhu@cigar.org
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Optimization vs rule-based simulation in regional water management modeling

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Optimization vs rule-based simulation in regional water management modeling

  1. 1. Optimization vs Rule-based Simulation in Regional Water Management Modeling Tingju Zhu International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, DC Systematic Analysis of Climate Resilient Development Workshop, IFPRI and UNU-WIDER, Washington, DC, October 7-8, 2010
  2. 2. Regional Water Management Issues
  3. 3. River Basins are Coupled Natural- Human Systems!
  4. 4. Engineering-Economic IssuesWater Management Issues
  5. 5. Water Management Issues
  6. 6. Variants of Optimization and Simulation Models for Regional Water Management  Optimization models  Rule-based simulation models  Optimization-driven simulation models (e.g. priority driven models – WEAP, OASIS, DWRSIM, CALSIM)  ‘Optimized rules’-based models (common in reservoir operation)
  7. 7. An Optimization Model Example: Climate Change & California Water Resources
  8. 8. California Value Integrated Network  Statewide integrated engineering-optimization model (CALVIN)  Integrates hydrology, infrastructure, operations, economics, and environmental flows  Models adaptations to changed conditions  Highlights importance of North-South flows (Courtesy of Lund and Howitt)
  9. 9. Optimization Components Objective: Maximize net economic benefits Decisions: Reservoir releases, storage allocations Constraints: Mass balance, physical capacities, environmental flows, policies
  10. 10. Optimized Rules vs Dynamic Optimization for Flood Protection under Climate Change
  11. 11. Sacramento Valley, California Yolo Bypass Downtown Sacramento Levee and Dam Safety
  12. 12. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Existing Levee Setback (ft) ExistingLeveeHeight(ft) Do nothing Raise to optimal height at current setback Rebuild - inward Rebuild - outward Optimal setback First Critical Setback Second Critical Setback X*h0 Xc h0 Alwaysrebuild-inward Xc h0 Levee Re-design Rules based on Cost Minimization (Details: Zhu & Lund, 2009)
  13. 13. 95 9099 75 50 25 10 1 0.15 0.52 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Percent Chance Exceedence Three-dayFlow(m3 /s) HCM2000 HCM2025 HCM2065 HCM2090 Sacramento, California Flood control under Urbanization & a Changing Climate … Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model (Details: Zhu et al., 2007)
  14. 14. Move Backward? Levees height increases over time, and setback expansion seems desirable in distant future …
  15. 15. Setback expansion for increased channel capacity Continuously increasing flood protection standard driven by economic growth
  16. 16. Expected annual flood damage Land value loss Levee construction cost
  17. 17. Optimization vs rule-based simulation  Optimization can explore many options ‘quickly’ and identify promising solutions for detailed study by simulation models  More simplifications are usually needed in optimization models; simulation models can consider more details  Optimization models can provide useful economic information (e.g. scarcity value); simulation models usually cannot  For distant future: rule-based simulation models face the difficulty of specifying operating rules; similar challenge exists for optimization models, but seems “more doable”
  18. 18. Thank you! Tingju Zhu t.zhu@cigar.org

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