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Climate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam

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Climate change impacts on agriculture in Vietnam

  1. 1. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Vietnam Tingju Zhu1 and Mai Van Trinh2 1International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC 2Institute for Agricultural Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam June 10-12, 2010 Beijing, China International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security (ARFS)
  2. 2. Background 2 • Area - 332 K km2 with 3300 Km coastline • Population - 85.8 millions (2009) • Rapid economic growth • Agriculture accounts for ~20% GDP, 65% employment, 30% exports • Hydro-climatic disasters cause serious damages
  3. 3. Potential Climate Change Impacts 3 • Vietnam is among a few countries that will be worst affected by climate change – tropical location, long coastal line, mega deltas • Climate change channelizes its impacts on agriculture through changes in precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and sea level rise (inundation and salinity intrusion) • Hydrological impacts of climate change affects water availability and irrigation • Adverse impacts of climate change can affect economic growth and the status of poverty and malnutrition
  4. 4. Climate Change already under Way? Changes of Precipitation, Temperature and Solar Radiation during 1971-2007 104 106 108 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 104 106 108 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 104 106 108 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 -28 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 mm oC Watt/m2 Rainfall average temperature radiation
  5. 5. Selection of Climate Scenarios: Moisture Index for GCM Climate Projection in 2050 Drier Wetter
  6. 6. • Dry Scenario: IPSL-CM4 • Wet Scenario: GISS-ER • MONRE Scenario Baseline: 1971-2000 Two Future Period: 2030 (2016-2045) 2050 (2036-2065) Climate Change Scenarios (I) Average Country Climate Moisture Index  All climate change scenarios are from IPCC AR4’s GCM projections for SRES A2 emission scenario  MONRE scenario is the Vietnamese government official climate change scenario for A2  Sea level rise scenario: 17 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050
  7. 7. Climate Change Scenarios (II) Mean Annual Temperature Changes by Agro-ecological Zone (oC) Mean Annual Precipitation Changes by Agro-ecological Zone (%)
  8. 8. Climate Change Scenarios (III) Mean Monthly Precipitation 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation(mm) NorthWest 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation(mm) NorthEast 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation(mm) RedRiver Delta 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation(mm) NorthCentral Coast 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation(mm) SouthCentral Coast 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipiation(mm) Central Highland 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation(mm) East South 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation(mm) Mekong Delta
  9. 9. Analytical Models
  10. 10. Climate Change Impacts (I) % Basin Runoff Changes -50 0 50 100 150 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RedRiver Basin- 2030 IPSL GISS MONRE -50 0 50 100 150 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RedRiver Basin- 2050 IPSL GISS MONRE -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mekong DeltaInflowChanges - 2030 IPSL GISS HadCM3 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mekong DeltaInflowChanges - 2050 IPSL GISS HadCM3  Red River Basin: Decreased rainy season flow under IPSL, increased dry season flow under GISS and MONRE  Mekong Delta: Major flow reduction under IPSL
  11. 11. Climate Change Impacts (II) Sea Level Rise (17 cm by 2030, 30 cm by 2050) Threshold Values for Judging Rice Area Loss Inundation: water depth > 0.5 m Salinity Intrusion: Salinity Concentration > 4 g/l
  12. 12. Climate Change Impacts (III) Sea Level Rise by 30 cm  Mekong River Delta: by 2050, flood inundation area (depth > 0.5 m) increases by 276 thousand ha; salinity intrusion area (salinity > 4 g/l) increase by 420 thousand ha. About 13% rice production area is lost by 2050. Inundation Area (000 ha) Salinity Affected Area (000 ha)
  13. 13. Crop Production in 2007 Rice is the single most important crop!
  14. 14. Climate Change Impacts (IV) Rice Yield Changes (%) • Major rice yield reduction are predicted for IPSL and GISS scenarios with carbon fertilization • Without carbon fertilization, all agro-ecological zones have yield reduction under all scenarios except South East With CO2 Fertilization Without CO2 Fertilization
  15. 15. Climate Change Impacts (V) Crop Production Changes (%)
  16. 16. Climate Change Impacts (VI) Crop Production Changes – cont. • Without CO2 fertilization, productions decline for all crops across all the three climate change scenarios • With CO2 fertilization, MONRE scenario has production increase for all crops, while production of IPSL and GISS decline • Positive effects of CO2 fertilization may overplay adverse effects from temperature and water changes, thus not necessarily 2030 production changes being lower than 2050 • Without CO2 fertilization, rice production losses range from 2.1 to 6.4 million ton per year in 2030, and 3.4 to 6.7 million ton in 2050 • Sea level rise along can cause about 2.7 million ton rice production loss in 2050, in the Mekong Delta
  17. 17. Climate Change Adaptation (I) Irrigation Expansion Irrigation Expansion: Total irrigation expansion of ~690 thousand ha by 2050, including 355 ha for rice, ~180 ha for maize, distributed across agro-ecological zones. 502 984 756 812 591 1616 1608 2567 1823 3581 127 2884 1451 3050 1249 349 79 290 355 299 254 165 269 334 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 NW NE RRD NCC SCC CHL SE MRD LandArea(000ha) OtherLand Use ForestLand Agricultural Production Land Present Land Use in Vietnam
  18. 18. Climate Change Adaptation (II) Ag. Research & Extension Ag. Research & Extension: Additional yield growth by 13.5% by 2050 for all crops. 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Rice Maize Cassava Coffee Sweetpotato Soybean Yield Index (Historical Yield Growth)
  19. 19. Other Adaptation Options (III) Shifting Planting Dates  Shifting Planting Dates: On average, yield increases by 0.47 ton/ha in the Red River Delta. Winter-spring Rice Planting Area in Red River Delta
  20. 20. Conclusions • Vietnam is among the few countries that will be worst affected by climate change • The most productive deltas face serious challenges • Impacts on agricultural and water sectors can be serious, affecting economic growth and the status of poverty and malnutrition • Appropriate adaptation measures can be effective in reducing impacts, but expensive and irreversible actions should be avoided
  21. 21. Pham Quang Ha and Tran Van Institute for Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Le Hung Nam, To Trung Nghia, Le Hong Tuan, Truong Trong Luat, Vu Dinh Huu Institute of Water Resources Planning, MARD Do Duc Dung Southern Institute of Water Resources planning, MARD Bao Thanh, Luong Van Viet, Nguyen Thi Phuong, Bui Chi Nam Sub-institute of Hydrometeorology of South Viet Nam, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment 21 Acknowledgements

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