New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]
Overview <ul><li>Three trends in intelligence analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Visualisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stru...
Trend 1: Use of Visualisation
Trend 2: Focus on higher-level cognitive processes Bloom's Taxonomy of Cognitive Processes Attention is moving up the valu...
Trend 3: Adoption of structured analytical techniques <ul><li>Argument Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of Competing Hyp...
Convergence One point of convergence of these three trends is a family of “mapping” techniques
Link Analysis Link analysis supports a mid-level cognitive process with sophisticated visualisation tools (e.g. Analyst's ...
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) A structured analytical technique for a high-level cognitive process (hypothesis te...
Major Problems with ACH <ul><li>Can't handle hierarchical hypothesis sets </li></ul><ul><li>Can't display subordinate argu...
Hypothesis Mapping Hierarchical hypothesis sets
Hypothesis Mapping Subordinate argumentation
Hypothesis Mapping Co-premises (critical assumptions)
An emerging hypothesis map
bCisive 2 Software for rapid assembly, modification and sharing of hypothesis maps, argument maps and decision maps
Future Trend From To ACH Hypothesis Mapping
Recap <ul><li>Three  trends  in intelligence analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Visualisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Struc...
New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]
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New Directions Seminar Dec 2008

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Slides for presentation New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis at the Joint Australian Associations’ Security and Intelligence Seminar Program
Signposts for a Security Road Map

New Directions Seminar Dec 2008

  1. 1. New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]
  2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Three trends in intelligence analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Visualisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Structured techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher cognitive processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>One convergence point: Mapping techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Future Trend: Hypothesis Mapping </li></ul>
  3. 3. Trend 1: Use of Visualisation
  4. 4. Trend 2: Focus on higher-level cognitive processes Bloom's Taxonomy of Cognitive Processes Attention is moving up the value hierarchy
  5. 5. Trend 3: Adoption of structured analytical techniques <ul><li>Argument Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of Competing Hypotheses </li></ul><ul><li>Key Assumptions Check </li></ul><ul><li>Indicators or Signposts of Change </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Information Check </li></ul><ul><li>Deception Detection </li></ul><ul><li>Devil’s Advocacy </li></ul><ul><li>Team A / Team B Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>“ What If?” Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>High-Impact / Low Probability Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Red Team Analysis, </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative Futures Analysis </li></ul>
  6. 6. Convergence One point of convergence of these three trends is a family of “mapping” techniques
  7. 7. Link Analysis Link analysis supports a mid-level cognitive process with sophisticated visualisation tools (e.g. Analyst's Notebook) But so what?
  8. 8. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) A structured analytical technique for a high-level cognitive process (hypothesis testing) using rudimentary visualisation From Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
  9. 9. Major Problems with ACH <ul><li>Can't handle hierarchical hypothesis sets </li></ul><ul><li>Can't display subordinate argumentation </li></ul><ul><li>Can't display co-premises </li></ul><ul><li>Tedious and disorienting to use </li></ul>These problems linked to poor choice of visualisation
  10. 10. Hypothesis Mapping Hierarchical hypothesis sets
  11. 11. Hypothesis Mapping Subordinate argumentation
  12. 12. Hypothesis Mapping Co-premises (critical assumptions)
  13. 13. An emerging hypothesis map
  14. 14. bCisive 2 Software for rapid assembly, modification and sharing of hypothesis maps, argument maps and decision maps
  15. 15. Future Trend From To ACH Hypothesis Mapping
  16. 16. Recap <ul><li>Three trends in intelligence analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Visualisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Structured techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher cognitive processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>One convergence point: Mapping techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Future Trend : Hypothesis Mapping as an alternative to Analysis of Competing Hypothesis </li></ul>
  17. 17. New Directions in Structured Thinking for Intelligence Analysis Dr. Tim van Gelder Principal, Austhink [email_address]

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