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The Future of Cooperation

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Slides from my keynote at the State of the Valley conference on February 8, 2013.

Not final version. Please do not link to this version before tomorrow.

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The Future of Cooperation

  1. The Future of Cooperation Tim O’Reilly O’Reilly Media State of the Valley February 8, 2013
  2. “The skill of writing is to create a context in which other people can think.”-Edwin Schlossberg
  3. Cooperation
  4. Social Structure Among Gorillas “The silverback is the center of the troops attention, making all the decisions, mediating conflicts, determining the movements of the group, leading the others to feeding sites and taking responsibility for the safety and well-being of the troop. Younger males subordinate to the silverback, known as blackbacks, may serve as backup protection.” Wikipedia
  5. Social Structure Among Chimpanzees “In chimpanzee society, the dominant male does not always have to be the largest or strongest male, but rather the most manipulative and political male which can influence the goings on within a group. Male chimpanzees typically attain dominance through cultivating allies who will provide support for that individual in case of future ambitions for power.” Image: John Mitani http://sitemaker.umich.edu/mitani/ Wikipedia
  6. The Evolution of Complex Societies Band Tribe Chiefdom State
  7. The “Invisible Hand” of “the Market” “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages.”Adam Smith 1759
  8. What comes next, as the internet weaves us all into a single global brain?
  9. “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” - William Gibson
  10. The Three Player Game “I have come to read [the history of the innovation economy] as driven by three sets of continuous, reciprocal, interdependent games played between the state, the market economy, and financial capitalism.” - Bill Janeway
  11. The State as Kleptocracy “By the state, I mean the political entity that has sufficient coercive power to establish the rules for the other players.” - Bill Janeway
  12. Ronald Coase 1937
  13. “In this paper, I expand consideration of the policy implications of the apparent success of free software in two ways. First, I suggest that the phenomenon has broad implications throughout the information, knowledge, and culture economy, well beyond software development. Second, I suggest reasons to think that peer production may outperform marketYochai Benkler based production in some information production 2001 activities.”
  14. “Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow”--Eric Raymond
  15. Google
  16. Facebook
  17. Even Apple’s product is co-created by “the market” of its users A dozen apps on the original iPhone. Now over 800,000
  18. “the Adhocracy”Cory Doctorow
  19. The State as Kleptocracy “By the state, I mean the political entity that has sufficient coercive power to establish the rules for the other players.” - Bill Janeway
  20. “global consciousness is that thingresponsible for deciding that pots containingdecaffeinated coffee should be orange” –Danny Hillis (via Jeff Bezos)–http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/network/2005/03/16/etech_3.html
  21. The market as an example of collective intelligence “Simple? Yet, not a single person on the face of this earth knows how to make me.” - Leonard Reed, 1958 http://www.fee.org/library/detail/i-pencil-audio-pdf-and-html
  22. “No matter who you are, most of the smart peoplework for someone else.” - Bill Joy
  23. Kasparov vs. The World (1999) “The greatest game in the history of chess.” -Gary Kasparov “Although Krush was inferior to Kasparov in nearly all areas of chess, in this particular area of microexpertise, she surpassed even him.” - Michael Nielsen
  24. Counter example - how hits beget hits, importance of independence... Individuals influence each others’ decisions about cultural products such as songs, books, and movies; but to what extent can the perception of success become a “self- fulfilling prophecy”? We have explored this question experimentally by artificially inverting the true popularity of songs in an online “music market,” in which 12,207 participants listened to and downloaded songs by unknown bands. We found that most songs experienced self- fulfilling prophecies, in which perceived—but initially false—popularity became real over time.
  25. Reflexivity “...social theories are reflexive. Heisenberg’s discovery of the uncertainty principle did not alter the behavior of quantum particles one iota, but social theories, whether Marxism, market fundamentalism or the theory of reflexivity, can affect the subject matter to which it refers.” - George Soros http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0ca06172-bfe9-11de-aed2-00144feab49a.html#ixzz2KF9avwwD
  26. “The message system used in the nervoussystem…is of an essentially statisticalcharacter.” -John von Neumann
  27. “In a pulse-frequency-coded system, meaning is conveyed bythe frequency at which pulses are transmitted between givenlocations - whether those locations are synapses within a brainor addresses on the World Wide Web…Information is beingencoded (and operated upon) as continuous (and noise-tolerant) variables such as frequencies (of connection oroccurrence), and the topology of what connects where, withlocation being increasingly defined by a fault-tolerant templaterather than by an unforgiving numerical address. Pulse-frequency coding for the Internet is one way to describe theworking architecture of a search engine, and PageRank forneurons is one way to describe the working architecture of thebrain.” - George Dyson
  28. The invisible hand of the market + the internet = the global brain?
  29. The Industrial Internet How does our society change when our factories and devices are connected to the internet’s global brain? Jeff Immelt of GE at the Industrial Internet conference
  30. The Google Autonomous Vehicle
  31. Human-Computer Symbiosis“The hope is that, in not too many years, human brains and computingmachines will be coupled together very tightly, and that the resultingpartnership will think as no human brain has ever thought and processdata in a way not approached by the information-handling machineswe know today.” – Licklider, J.C.R., "Man-Computer Symbiosis", IRE Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, vol. HFE-1, 4-11, Mar 1960. Eprint
  32. 2005: Seven Miles in Seven Hours
  33. But it isn’t just better AI“We don’t have better algorithms. We just have more data.” - Peter Norvig, ChiefScientist, Google
  34. AI plus the recorded memory of augmented humans
  35. The technology-enabled super-clerks of the Apple Store
  36. Google Glasses - our cyborg future?
  37. The State
  38. “The legitimate object of government is to do for the peoplewhat needs to be done, but which they cannot, by individualeffort, do at all, or do so well, for themselves.” -Abraham Lincoln, July 1, 1854
  39. “Do we just want to be a crowd of voices, or dowe want to be a crowd of hands?” - Jennifer Pahlka
  40. Vending Machine Government Vending Machine Gov concept from Donald Kettl: The Next Government of the United States
  41. Government as a Platform Government as a platform means an end to the design of only complete, closed “applications.” Instead the government should provide fundamental services on which we, the people, (also known as “the market”) build applications.
  42. Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956 Dwight Eisenhower
  43. google home page / information age
  44. GPS: A 21st century platform launched in 1973
  45. Gordon Moore
  46. Clay Johnson
  47. Govtech Fund I
  48. “What if interfaces to government could besimple, beautiful, and easy to use?” - Jennifer Pahlka,channeling 2011 Code for America Fellow Scott Silverman
  49. 79
  50. “Government of the people, by the people, and for the people.” It still means something.
  51. The Presidential Innovation Fellows and Code for America are both recruiting now.

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