My keynote at Drupalcon SF on April 20, 2009. Similar to my talk at OSBC, MySQL and Greenplum, but with a bit of a drupal twist. Ending riff on DIY inspired by Isaiah Saxon's comments on my MySQL keynote.
Tim O'ReillyFounder and CEO, O'Reilly Media at O'Reilly Media
13. “I’m an inventor.
I became interested in
long term trends
because an invention
has to make sense in the
world in which it is
finished, not the world in
which it is started.”
-Ray Kurzweil
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
14. You may think of me as a book publisher
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
17. What We Really Do At O'Reilly
Change the world by spreading the
knowledge of innovators
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
18. O’Reilly Radar Methodology
“The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed
yet.” - William Gibson
We “watch the alpha geeks” and think about the
futures they are living in
We then look for trend data that tells us that a
particular future is becoming mainstream
I’m going to tell you some seemingly unconnected
technology stories from the front lines of
innovation. Then we’re going to connect the dots.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
26. Innovation in Action
Hackers build devices that show off possible
futures
Entrepreneurs and innovative companies take
these futures and push them to the mainstream
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
27. The cloud future includes...
Devices acting as sensors for intelligent data
collection
Devices whose UI is on the web rather than the
device
Feeding data into multiple online services that will
turn into a full-on sensor web
Setting the stage for robotics, augmented reality,
and the next generation of personal electronics
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
31. What we see here
Peer-to-peer credit card payments
Social networks used for risk evaluation
The PC is out of the loop
The phone is a sensor platform
– Hardware add-on innovation
– Location based sensing
– Touch screen UI
Processing is done in real time in the cloud
– Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device
– Big data analysis
– Building new networks on the back of existing ones
Reinventing a major industry
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
42. AMEE - the world’s energy meter
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
43. We’re moving to a world in which every device
generates useful data, in which every action
creates “information shadows” on the net.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
45. The smart phone plus local search. Today pizza,
Pazzia, 337 3rd Street
California Pizza Kitchen, 53 3rd Street
Blondie’s Pizza. 63 Powell Street
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
46. An application running on a
mobile device whose user
interface is driven by sensors:
- Touch screen
- Motion and proximity sensors
- Microphone
- GPS or cell tower triangulation
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
47. An application that depends on
cooperating cloud data services:
- Speech recognition
- Search
- Location data
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
48. An application that applies
context-sensitive filters to give
users just the information they
need.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
52. •Search in plain English
•Search by voice
•Traffic view
•Search along route
•Satellite view
•Street view
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
53. An application that
depends on cooperating
cloud data services:
- Location
- Search
- Speech recognition
- Live Traffic
- Imagery
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
54. Cloud Computing
“You keep using that word. I do not think it
means what you think it means.”
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
57. The Internet Operating System is a Data Operating System
It helps applications find out about
– People
– Places
– Things
– Prices
– Documents
– Images
– Sounds
– Relationships
– ...
and helps people interact with them through services
– Search
– Payment
– Matching and Recognition
– ...
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
61. This is the 21st century data challenge
Not transactions
Not data warehouses and business intelligence
Not database-backed web sites
Not even NoSQL-backed web services
Real time cloud-based intelligence delivered to
mobile applications
Algorithmic intelligence
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
62. This is the world that Drupal
must be designed to support
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
75. Who Owns What
Chart Title?
Other
Infrastructure As a Service
Storage — —
Computation — —
Hosted SaaS Apps —
Media access
Music —
Video —
Books — — — — —
Web Content —
Photos — — —
Monetization
Advertising — —
Payment
Location
Maps & Directions — — —
Real Time Location Detection — —
Calendaring/Scheduling —
Social Graph — —
Communications
Email — —
Voice — —
Chat — —
Video — —
Sensor Management
Speech Recognition — —
Image Recognition — — —
Mobile Device OS —
Mobile Device Hardware —
Web Browser — —
Strong o ering
Medium o ering
Getting started
— Not on the board yet
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
76. “In the future, being a developer on
someone’s platform will mean being hosted
on their infrastructure.”
- Debra Chrapaty, VP Windows Live (2006)
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
77. Who Owns What
Chart Title?
Other
Infrastructure As a Service
Storage — —
Computation — —
Hosted SaaS Apps —
Media access
Music —
Video —
Books — — — — —
Web Content —
Photos — — —
Monetization
Advertising — —
Payment
Location
Maps & Directions — — —
Real Time Location Detection — —
Calendaring/Scheduling —
Social Graph — —
Communications
Email — —
Voice — —
Chat — —
Video — —
Sensor Management
Speech Recognition — —
Image Recognition — — —
Mobile Device OS —
Mobile Device Hardware —
Web Browser — —
Strong o ering
Medium o ering
Getting started
— Not on the board yet
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
78. Interoperable web services, open data, and
standard protocols are at least as important as
open source
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
79. The underdog is the ally of open source
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
80. Potential open source supporters
Search: Microsoft
Maps: Microsoft, Nokia,Yelp, Foursquare
Speech: Nuance, Microsoft
Social Graph: Google
Payment: Paypal
Cloud infrastructure: VMware
Smartphones: Google
Device Operating Systems: Google
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
107. Drupal is a DIY tool! But so is Arduino.
Keep rediscovering the DIY spirit.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
108. Work on stuff that matters!
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
109. For more information
The Open Source Paradigm Shift (2003)
http://bit.ly/cKLSUP
What is Web 2.0? (2005)
http://oreil.ly/a0zT65
Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On (2009)
http://bit.ly/kEKgs
Government as a Platform (2010)
http://opengovernment.labs.oreilly.com/
Ongoing commentary
http://radar.oreilly.com
http://twitter.com/timoreilly
http://buzz.google.com/timoreilly
Tuesday, April 20, 2010