12-3. Itown is a large computer discount store that sells computers and ancillary equipment and software in the townwhere ...
12-16. The manager of Carpet City outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (itsbigge...
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Forecasting Problem Set

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Forecasting in Engineering Management

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Forecasting Problem Set

  1. 1. 12-3. Itown is a large computer discount store that sells computers and ancillary equipment and software in the townwhere State University is located. It has collected historical data on computer sales and printer sales for the past 10 yearas follows. Year Personal Computer Sales Printers Sold 1 1045 381 2 1610 579 3 860 312 4 1211 501 5 975 296 6 1117 415 7 1066 535 8 1310 592 9 1517 607 20 1246 473a. Develop a linear trend line forecast to forecast printer demand in year 11.b. Develop a linear regression model relating printer sales to computer sales to forecast printer demand in year 11 of1500 computers are sold.c. Compare the forecasts developed in parts (a) and (b) and indicate which one appears to be best.12-8. The Hartley-Davis motorcycle dealer in Minneapolis-St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately thedemand for the Roadhog Super Motorcycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated datain the adjacent table for the past year.a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast of demand for April through January (of the next year)b. Compute a five-month moving average forecast from June through Januaryc. Compare the two forecasts computed in parts (a) and (b) using MAD. Which one should the dealer use for January ofnext year? Month Motorcycle salesJanuary 9February 7March 10April 8May 7June 12July 10August 11September 12October 10November 14December 16
  2. 2. 12-16. The manager of Carpet City outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (itsbiggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpets from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets fromone of Carpet City’s many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months. Month Demand per Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) 1 8 2 12 3 7 4 9 5 15 6 11 7 10 8 12a. Compute a 3-momnth moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.b. Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33 and 0.12to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent months.c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?

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