The Future of Manufacturing May 2011

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A talk on emerging drivers of change that will impact manufacturing and signals from today that support this

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The Future of Manufacturing May 2011

  1. 1. Future  of  Manufacturing:  Emerging  Drivers  of  Change    Dr  Tim  Jones  –  Programme  Director  -­‐  16  May  2011  
  2. 2. Future  Agenda   Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight   programme  that  ran  throughout  2010  and  engaged  expert   input  from  over  140  countries  to  gain  a  unique  global  view  
  3. 3. Today  we  are  using  a  few  of  these  to  sImulate  some   thoughts   Future  Agenda  Insights   52  insights  on  the  world  in  2020  across  six  key  areas  are    being  used  by  companies  around  the  world  –  some  of  these   insights  have  key  implicaIons  for  manufacturing  
  4. 4. Imbalanced  PopulaIon  Growth   CertainIes   By  2020  we  will  add  another  750m  people  to  the  planet,     most  in  places  least  able  to  accommodate  them  
  5. 5. Key  Resource  Constraints   CertainIes  We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poliIcal  shortages  of  key   materials  that  will  result  in  major  changes  in  perspecIves  
  6. 6. Asian  Wealth  ShiT   CertainIes   The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth  is  shiTing    East  with  decreased  influence  for  the  US  and  Europe  
  7. 7. Ubiquitous  Data  Access   CertainIes   We  will  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that  can     benefit  from  a  network  connecIon  will  have  one  
  8. 8. Lease  Everything   Wealth   Rising  sustainability  imperaIves  and  increasing     cost  of  ownership  shiT  the  balance  from     ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy    
  9. 9. AcIve  Elderly   Happiness   A  wealthier,  healthier  older  generaIon  increasingly     engage  in  more  acIve  lives,  having  extended  careers     and  becoming  more  poliIcally  involved  
  10. 10. Less  Energy   Wealth   Consumers  are  incenIvised  to  use  significantly     less  energy  as  escalaIng  growth  in  carbon  emissions     force  uIliIes  to  change  their  business  models  
  11. 11. Solar  Sunrise   Security   Increasing  governmental  focus  on  energy  security     and  climate  change  drives  the  uptake  of  large-­‐scale     solar  as  the  leading  renewable  supply  
  12. 12. Water  Management     Security   Advanced  water  purificaIon,  irrigaIon  and  desalinaIon   technologies  are  used  to  help  communiIes  to   manage  the  rising  supply  /  demand  imbalance  
  13. 13. Corporate  LEGO   Security   With  more  free  agents  and  outsourcing,  non-­‐core     funcIons  within  organisaIons  are  interchangeable     and  easily  rebuilt  around  value-­‐creaIng  units    
  14. 14. Bridging  The  Last  Mile   Locality   The  need  to  make  public  transport  as  flexible  as  private   focuses  a^enIon  on  the  last  mile  between  mulI-­‐modal     hubs  and  the  home  /  work  desInaIon  
  15. 15. Future  of  Manufacturing:  Emerging  Drivers  of  Change   8  Key  Signals  and  Signposts  
  16. 16. AddiIve  Manufacture   Signal  #1   AddiIve  manufacture  has  grown  in  the  aerospace  sector     as  companies  seek  to  reduce  the  20:1  ‘buy  to  fly’  raIo  
  17. 17. AddiIve  Manufacture   Signal  #1   With  lower  capital  costs  this  is  now  going  increasingly   mainstream  and  replacing  tradiIonal  techniques  
  18. 18. 3D  Cladding   Signal  #2   In  the  construcIon  sector,  cast  and  3D  machined  cladding    is  opening  up  a  wide  range  of  design  opIons  
  19. 19. China  Sets  The  Standards   Signal  #3   In  a  fully  fla^ened  world,  where  IP  has  less  value,  China’s   domesIc  market  will  increasingly  set  the  global  standards  
  20. 20. Increasing  ProducIvity   Signal  #4  To  keep  up,  in  the  west  we  need  >double  producIvity  in  the  next  20  years  but  without  increasing  resource  consumpIon  
  21. 21. Intelligent  Factories   Signal  #5   Virtual  tools  increasingly  control  flexible  physical  tools    in  the  people-­‐free  programmable  shop  floor    
  22. 22. Late  CustomisaIon   Signal  #6   Further  separaIon  of  design  and  manufacture  allows  for   more  low  cost  complexity  especially  close  to  the  customer  
  23. 23. Late  CustomisaIon   Signal  #6   Distributed  assembly  and  access  to  simple  technology    will  provide  new  entrants  with  more  local  supply  opIons  
  24. 24. Supply  Webs   Signal  #7   Supply  webs  are  replacing  supply  chains  and  adopIng  the   principles  of  established  social  and  professional  networks  
  25. 25. Mobile  Factories   Signal  #8   New  soluIons  to  the  problem  of  connecIng  to  resources     and  the  market  are  being  trailed  in  some  key  sectors  
  26. 26. For  more  insights  and  free  e-­‐book  please  see  the  futureagenda  website   Tim  Jones  –  Programme  Director     ?m.jones@futureagenda.org        +44  780  1755  054  

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