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Possibility vs. Probability Technology Futures: Identifying 20 Year Growth Opportunities Future Trends 2007, Miami  Tim Jones – Principal, Innovaro Leo Roodhart – VP Group GameChanger, Shell
Five Key Topics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Who? Innovaro / Gamechanger
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why? Future Growth
The next big thing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
How? Shell Technology Futures
Context ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Design Principles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
What? Future View
 
 
What did Shell got out of this? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
What? Insights and Catalysts
[object Object]
Avian Flu is the biggest threat to humanity  – far greater than global warming, nuclear  terrorism and natural disasters
People are already being tracked through their mobile phones –  even when they are turned off.
In the USA today more people  die from  misprescriptions than from road accidents
Twenty five percent of corn is now used for ethanol production
It takes 400000 litres of water to build a car and 29 litres to make a single Starbucks cappuccino
[object Object]
Ford has only ever produced 90 million cars.   By 2020 China will have 150 million cars.
The entire transport fuel needs of the USA can be supplied by advanced biofuels using a piece of land the size of Texas
The 2025 environment is being planned and built today.
By 2020 medical tourism will have extended beyond nip and tuck vacations to include recreational modification
Implants are here today in niche areas:  By 2025 the outsiders will be those without an implant
Our identity will be based on our individual DNA profiles
Solitude will be a luxury – maybe a traded commodity
Water, not oil, is our key resource – we don’t have enough: Wars will be fought over it - consumption must change
Catalysts for Innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Catalysts for Innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Catalysts for Innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where? Docking Points
Docking Points
Africa: Mobile Payments
India: Low cost cataract operations
Singapore: Economic water desalination
Thank You
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Future Trends Presentation Tim Jones Ppt 97