Nanomaterials 2010

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How to make money from nanomaterials? Try leveraging them to address the big issues

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Nanomaterials 2010

  1. 1. Trends & Opportunities For Nanomaterials Tim Harper Cientifica Ltd / Envision ALR Nanomaterials 2010 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  2. 2. Trends & Opportunities For Nanomaterials Tim Harper Cientifica Ltd / Envision ALR Nanomaterials 2010 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  3. 3. Tim Harper • Engineer at European Space Agency • Serial Entrepreneur • Founder of European NanoBusiness Association • Chair / Chief Advisor of Several National Funding Bodies • World Economic Forum Emerging Technologies Council / Tech Pioneers • President, Nanotechnologies at Envision ALR 2 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  4. 4. We Wrote The Book on “Nano” in 2002 “The Nanotechnology Opportunity Report is a breakthrough - it is the first complete report of the state of our field” -Meyya Meyyappan director of the Center for Nanotechnology at NASA Ames, March 2002 3 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  5. 5. And Rewrote It In 2008 "Almost a billion dollars of investors cash has been poured down the drain by investors who did not understand the crucial difference between a science project and a successful company, egged on by a plethora of nanotech ‘experts,’ while large corporations have laughed all the way to the bank” 4 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  6. 6. Envision ALR Envision A Living Revolution (“Envision”) was launched in 2006 with the vision of becoming a leading integrated operating company in the markets of • Healthcare • Energy • Green Chemicals & Materials • Water Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  7. 7. Envision ALR Envision builds strategic and profitable positions in these markets by acquiring & commercialising underexploited technology platforms in the scientific fields of: • Regenerative Medicine • Nanotechnology • Industrial Biotechnology Envision employs an integrated operating model and full life-cycle funding approach allowing it to drive commercialization from the point of technology acquisition all the way through manufacturing and marketing Envision develops products that can be marketed under Envision’s own brand, or marketed by partners, under their own brands Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  8. 8. Nanotechnologies - From A Passive To An Active Role 7 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  9. 9. Global Population Growth 11,000,000 10,250,000 9,500,000 8,750,000 8,000,000 7,250,000 6,500,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Medium High Low Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  10. 10. Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  11. 11. Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  12. 12. Population Pressure World Average Income Per Capita 2007 2022 2007 Population 2007 Expenditure Distribution Per Capita 30% 1 0.9 25% 0.8 0.7 20% 0.6 15% 0.5 0.4 10% 0.3 0.2 5% 0.1 0% 0 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0 00 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 5, 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 GDP per capita (in 2000 USD) Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  13. 13. Can Technology Avoid War, Famine, Pestilence or Worse? 11 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  14. 14. 5000 Years of Science 12 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  15. 15. 5000 Years of Science Humans have 12 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  16. 16. 5000 Years of Science Humans have • Been observing the world for 5000 years 12 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  17. 17. 5000 Years of Science Humans have • Been observing the world for 5000 years • Significantly changing it for 100 years 12 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  18. 18. 5000 Years of Science Humans have • Been observing the world for 5000 years • Significantly changing it for 100 years • Understanding our actions for 20 years 12 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  19. 19. Control Over Materials Materials Have Always Been Vital to Humanity • Clothing, • Heating, hunting tools • Coal, iron, oil, copper • Semiconductors • Satellites 13 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  20. 20. Materials Have Shaped Our Culture 10,000 BC 1000 BC 0 1800 1900’s 2000 2010 Stone & Wood Iron Cement Steel Polymers Synthetic Biology Composites Nanotechnology Adapted from Herrmann, W. Chem. Eng. Technol. 21(7), 549 (1998) 14 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  21. 21. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  22. 22. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  23. 23. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  24. 24. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  25. 25. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  26. 26. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  27. 27. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control Semiconductors 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  28. 28. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Control Biotechnology Semiconductors 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  29. 29. Science Enables New Technologies Complexity Nanotechnologies Control Biotechnology Semiconductors 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  30. 30. Science Enables New Technologies Synthetic Biology Complexity Nanotechnologies Control Biotechnology Semiconductors 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  31. 31. Science Enables New Technologies Geoengineering? Synthetic Biology Complexity Nanotechnologies Control Biotechnology Semiconductors 1650 1950 2050 15 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  32. 32. Moving From Control Of Materials to Control of Things 16 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  33. 33. Moving From Control Of Materials to Control of Things Materials • Metals • Semiconductors • Food Processing Passive 16 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  34. 34. Moving From Control Of Materials to Control of Things Materials Things • Metals • Crops • Semiconductors • Cells • Food Processing • The Planet? Passive Active 16 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  35. 35. 9 global trends selected for discussion Climate change, environment, Carbon productivity and adaptation becoming an 1 and sustainability increasingly dominant factor in all business decisions Working Draft - Last Modified 19.11.2009 10:26:59 2 Rapidly growing demand for energy Energy security becoming a bigger geopolitical concern 3 Limited resources Resource demand rapidly outpaces supply (oil, gas, coal, water, biomass, and other raw materials), price volatility Increasing scarcity and unequal Demand for clean water rapidly outpaces supply in regions where 4 distribution of water majority of the world's population lives* Growing demand for food, nutrition, and Agricultural production struggling to satisfy increasing demand for 5 health high-calorie quality food and health care Printed 03.11.2009 13:57:36 6 Demographics, including shifting Over 1 billion new consumers (e.g., China and India); ageing populations and mobility population; exploding demand for transport 7 Shifting centers of economic activity Dramatic realignment of GDP, urbanization, new geo-political balance 8 Social life in a technological world Connectivity transforms the way we live and interact 9 Corporate global citizenship Companies increasingly consider all stakeholders, particularly with respect to environmental sustainability * By 2030, 40% of global GDP and 85% of the world's population will be in regions where water demand exceeds supply (HBR July-August 2009, p. 1) Source: McKinsey; inputs from WELCOM call 21 July 2009; bilateral discussions at World Economic Forum 17 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  36. 36. Huge Potential: Tiny Rewards Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  37. 37. A History of Technology Push 1 Oxonica • Spun out in 1998 from University of Oxford • Raised £12.5m from investors • AIM flotation in June 2005 raised additional £7.5m • Market Cap of £150m in 2005 • Market Cap of £1.5m and delisted in 2009 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  38. 38. Why Did They Fail? • All products were based on nanoparticles • Manufacturing was outsourced • Products were quickly commoditised • Margins always under pressure • Lone acquisition did nothing to secure markets, supply chains or diversify • Messy and costly IP disputes Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  39. 39. A History of Technology Push 2 Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc • February 2005: 30 patents issued, 70 applications pending and were hoping to corner the world market • March 2007: Acquired for $5.4m in stock by Arrowhead Research and merged with Unidym • February 2009: Unidym replaces CEO and closes old CNI facilities in Houston • July 2009: “Zero employees” Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  40. 40. Why Did ey Fail? CNI HAS THE BRAINS, THE CASH, NOW ALL IT NEEDS IS THE MARKET Carbon Nanotechnologies Inc. seems to have it all – a Nobel laureate as its co-founder, a veteran management team, $15 million in angel funding and a working pilot plant. What the carbon nanotube producer lacks is a commercial product and a market. CNI is positioning itself to dominate once that happens by building its business and production capabilities simultaneously. -July 29, 2002 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  41. 41. A Rather Obvious Conclusion Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  42. 42. A Rather Obvious Conclusion • Technology Push Doesn’t Work! • Hundreds of millions of dollars and twenty years of research have yielded little of value – why? • Basic business premise was to push the technology onto an agnostic market Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  43. 43. A Rather Obvious Conclusion Need to incorporate nanomaterials in products which address real markets and problems Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  44. 44. Nanomaterials Already In Widespread Use 24 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  45. 45. Nanomaterials Already In Widespread Use • Composite Materials • Conducting Polymers • Thin Film Photovoltaics 24 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  46. 46. Nanomaterials Already In Widespread Use 24 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  47. 47. Composite Applications • Automotive body parts • Aerospace composites & coatings • Packaging • Conducting polymers 25 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  48. 48. Nanocomposite Materials • Polymer + nanoparticle, nanofibre or clay • Increases strength & rigidity • Lowers weight • Much of value is in the formulation rather than the filler 26 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  49. 49. Nanocomposite Materials • Polymer + nanoparticle, nanofibre or clay • Increases strength & rigidity • Lowers weight • Much of value is in the formulation rather than the filler Abalone Shell - Nanoscale Engineering 26 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  50. 50. Nanocomposite Use In Automotive Industry • Conducting composites for better paintability • Moulding cycle time reduction • Improved mechanical properties • High scratch resistance paints 27 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  51. 51. Replacing Indium With Conductive Inks • Demand Drivers • Rising demand for touch screens and flat panel displays • Increasing use of thin film solar panels • Solar applications and displays require better materials than Indium Tin Oxide • Global supply of Indium is limited 28 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  52. 52. Conducting Polymers at Envision 29 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  53. 53. 30 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  54. 54. iLab 31 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  55. 55. A Paradigm Shift in Medical Diagnostics Broad range of Point-of-Care applications • Complete blood profiling • HIV/STD testing • Infectious diseases • Molecular Diagnostics: • Cardiovascular diseases • Cancer diagnostics • Animal health 32 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  56. 56. Nanosolar 33 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  57. 57. Nanosolar 33 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  58. 58. market volume (Billion $) 200 Silicon Printed semiconductors semiconductors 150 100 50 0 85 95 05 15 25 80 90 00 10 20 30 19 19 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 Market forecast SIA, IDTechEx 2006 34 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  59. 59. market volume (Billion $) 200 Silicon Printed semiconductors semiconductors 150 100 50 0 85 95 05 15 25 80 90 00 10 20 30 19 19 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 Market forecast SIA, IDTechEx 2006 34 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  60. 60. No Quick Returns? 35 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  61. 61. No Quick Returns? • It will take ten to twenty years for new sources for renewables to become competitive with existing sources 35 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  62. 62. No Quick Returns? • It will take ten to twenty years for new sources for renewables to become competitive with existing sources • Market forces will drive up the cost of dwindling resources in the meantime 35 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  63. 63. No Quick Returns? • It will take ten to twenty years for new sources for renewables to become competitive with existing sources • Market forces will drive up the cost of dwindling resources in the meantime • Current investment levels in renewables have priced many investors out of the market 35 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  64. 64. It Takes $1Bn To Get In The Solar Game 36 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  65. 65. It Takes $1Bn To Get In The Solar Game • Konarka Technologies burned through over $100 million in VC funding 36 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  66. 66. It Takes $1Bn To Get In The Solar Game • Konarka Technologies burned through over $100 million in VC funding • Nanosolar has raised $295 million to date 36 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  67. 67. It Takes $1Bn To Get In The Solar Game • Konarka Technologies burned through over $100 million in VC funding • Nanosolar has raised $295 million to date • Realistic opportunities are enabled by organic solar, not producing solar 36 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  68. 68. Resources Are Getting Scarcer • Global competition for resources • Demand driven by increasing and increasingly affluent population • Some resources are almost exhausted 37 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  69. 69. Scarce Resources Metal Remaining Supply* Indium 5-10 years Antinomy 15-20 years Platinum 15 years Hafnium 10 years Tantalum 20-30 years Uranium 30-40 years Armin Reller, U. Augsburg, Tom Graedel, Yale * Pre Global Economic Crisis 38 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  70. 70. The Rare Earth • Global demand for rare earths has tripled from 40,000 tonnes to 120,000 tonnes over the past 10 years • China now controls 97% of the global supply of 17 rare earths • 25% of new green technologies rely on minor metals and rare earths 39 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  71. 71. A Fuel Efficient Resource Hog • Each electric Prius motor requires 1 Kg of neodymium • Each battery uses 10 to 15 kg of lanthanum • The most rare earth intensive product on the planet 40 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  72. 72. Uses of Indium Global Market for Transparent Conductors Touch Screens, & other electronics 3,500,000 $3.0B 3,000,000 $2.5B 2,500,000 Solar Cells $2.0B 2,000,000 $1.5B 1,500,000 LCD Displays 1,000,000 $1.0B 500,000 $0.5B - 1 2 3 4 5 6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 41 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  73. 73. He Could Be Right! “Rare earths are to China as oil is to the Middle East” - Deng Xiaoping (1992) 42 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  74. 74. What Can We Do? 43 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  75. 75. We Have The Tools 44 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  76. 76. How To Use Them? 45 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  77. 77. Using Emerging Technologies • Emerging technologies are critical to long-term global prosperity • Innovative technologies do not conform to conventional technology development paradigms • Effective policies for nurturing and employing emerging technologies are largely absent or poorly formed in government, industry and other stakeholder organisations 46 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  78. 78. Understanding Nature 47 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  79. 79. A Top Down Approach 48 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  80. 80. A Bottom Up Approach 49 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  81. 81. By Copying This Trick Reducing friction between container ships hull & water could • Save 1% of global oil consumption or • 850,000 barrels per day 50 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  82. 82. An Old Trick For Textiles 51 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  83. 83. Synthetic Biology Longest Published DNA Sequence Source: Rob Carlson synthesis.cc 52 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  84. 84. A Lot Like Moore’s Law 53 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  85. 85. Not Just Biofuels Converting waste products into feedstock • Wheat & Rice Straw to Sugars ➡Sugars to Glycol ➡Glycol to Bioplastics 54 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  86. 86. Reducing Our Dependence On This 55 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  87. 87. Cleaning Up The Mess Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  88. 88. What We Need Sector Need Solution Improve Yields GM Crops Food Address Malnutrition Golden Rice Reduce Consumption Composites Energy Generate Clean energy Photovoltaics Wind/ Tidal Alternative Fuels Industrial Biotech Climate Make Better Use of What We Have Synthetic Biology Nanomaterials Synthetic Biology Earlier & Cheaper Detection Disease Effective Treatment Targeted Nanoparticle Drug Delivery 57 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  89. 89. Can We Do It? 58 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  90. 90. Can We Do It? Well... 58 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  91. 91. Can We Do It? Well... • The innovation process is inefficient 58 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  92. 92. Can We Do It? Well... • The innovation process is inefficient • Capital for Emerging Technologies is Poorly Educated 58 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  93. 93. Can We Do It? Well... • The innovation process is inefficient • Capital for Emerging Technologies is Poorly Educated • Governments Lack Foresight 58 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  94. 94. Inefficient Innovation 59 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  95. 95. Inefficient Innovation To get there we need 59 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  96. 96. Inefficient Innovation To get there we need • Scientists to realise commercial potential 59 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  97. 97. Inefficient Innovation To get there we need • Scientists to realise commercial potential • Investor to both ‘get it’ and have liquidity 59 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  98. 98. Inefficient Innovation To get there we need • Scientists to realise commercial potential • Investor to both ‘get it’ and have liquidity • Quality management to take it to market 59 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  99. 99. Inefficient Innovation To get there we need • Scientists to realise commercial potential • Investor to both ‘get it’ and have liquidity • Quality management to take it to market • Market pull rather than technology push 59 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  100. 100. The Capital Gap VC investments are highly concentrated • 6 of 17 industries receive >73% of investment • “Me too” company investments are common Sectors are selected with inexperience • Example: $ Billions invested into biofuels • Investments have unrealistic expectations • > $100 MM in annual revenue targets • Ignoring advances and “foundation technologies” 60 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  101. 101. Government Foresight • Huge pressure on finances • Hard to second guess the market • Governments have a poor record of picking winners 61 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  102. 102. In The End... 62 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  103. 103. In The End... • Technology has lead every economic and social advance for the last 10,000 years 62 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  104. 104. In The End... • Technology has lead every economic and social advance for the last 10,000 years • It can create and clear up problems (e.g Ozone layer depletion) 62 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  105. 105. In The End... • Technology has lead every economic and social advance for the last 10,000 years • It can create and clear up problems (e.g Ozone layer depletion) • It is human nature to innovate 62 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  106. 106. Conclusions 63 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  107. 107. Conclusions Nanotechnologies and biosciences will be as important to the 21st Century as oil, polymers and semiconductors were to the 20th Century 63 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  108. 108. Conclusions Nanotechnologies and biosciences will be as important to the 21st Century as oil, polymers and semiconductors were to the 20th Century We have the tools, lets use them wisely 63 Tuesday, 8 June 2010
  109. 109. tim.harper@envisionalr.com Twitter: @tim_harper Tuesday, 8 June 2010

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