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[XConf Brasil 2020] Redefining confidence: cognitive biases in development life
- 1. Birgitta Böckeler
- 2. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Redefining confidence
- 3. © 2020 ThoughtWorks You do have in-depth technical knowledge. But you often use words that make your statements sound weaker.
- 4. © 2020 ThoughtWorks You could be even more confident.
- 5. © 2020 ThoughtWorks You could be even more confident.
- 6. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Thank you, I will consider that. You could be even more confident.
- 7. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Thank you, I will consider that. But... You could be even more confident.
- 8. Reference: Daniel Kahneman, “Thinking fast and slow“. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 9. Reference: Daniel Kahneman, “Thinking fast and slow“. “People are generally rational” © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 10. Reference: Daniel Kahneman, “Thinking fast and slow“. “People are generally rational” “Emotions explain the exceptions” © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 11. “People are generally rational” “Emotions explain the exceptions” © 2020 ThoughtWorks Cognitive biases
- 12. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 13. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: Wikipedia
- 14. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Confirmation bias Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our existing beliefs
- 15. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 16. Confirmation bias at al © 2020 ThoughtWorks Don’t repeat yourself, ever.
- 17. Software development is full of uncertainty © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 18. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: The Guardian, 2016
- 19. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a overall risk.
- 20. Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 21. Security Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 22. Security Avoiding lock-in Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 23. Security Avoiding lock-in Premature optimization Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 24. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Availability heuristicOur tendency to think that if something can be easily recalled, it must be important
- 25. Use models © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 26. Use models © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 27. Use models © 2020 ThoughtWorks Security Threat modelling
- 28. Avoiding Lock-in © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: Martin Fowler Use models
- 29. “Don’t get locked up in avoiding lock-in” - Gregor Hohpe
- 30. Be explicit about trade-offs © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 31. Do Be agile © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 32. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 33. Software development is full of uncertainty © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 34. Architecture is “the important stuff that people perceive as hard to change” - Martin Fowler
- 35. Learning from Our decisions © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 36. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Outcome bias Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision based on the outcome of that decision.
- 37. Security © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
- 38. Security © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
- 39. Security © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision ?
- 40. © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
- 41. © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
- 42. © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision ?
- 43. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 44. Distinguish skill from luck © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 45. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 46. ”...given what we knew at the time, our skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.” - Prime Directive
- 47. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Self-service bias When we ascribe success to our own abilities and efforts, but blame failure on external factors
- 48. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 49. “Redefining right” © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 50. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets”.
- 51. Write architecture decision records © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 52. Be explicit about trade-offs © 2020 ThoughtWorks
- 53. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias
- 54. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias
- 55. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias more
- 56. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias more
- 57. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.”
- 58. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean?
- 59. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean?
- 60. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean? Do I really want to?
- 61. ● “I’m not sure”
- 62. ● “I’m not sure” ● Asking questions
- 63. ● “I’m not sure” ● Asking questions ● Changing my mind
- 64. “Using uncertainty to our advantage” - Annie Duke
- 65. © 2020 ThoughtWorks How confident are you about your confidence?
- 66. Birgitta Böckeler @birgitta410 Obrigada © 2020 ThoughtWorks
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