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[XConf Brasil 2020] Redefining confidence: cognitive biases in development life

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Nesta palestra, Birgitta Böckeler aborda alguns dos vieses cognitivos que podem enganar pessoas arquitetas e desenvolvedoras de software, além de possíveis formas de amenizar o impacto potencialmente negativo desses vieses.

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[XConf Brasil 2020] Redefining confidence: cognitive biases in development life

  1. 1. Birgitta Böckeler
  2. 2. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Redefining confidence
  3. 3. © 2020 ThoughtWorks You do have in-depth technical knowledge. But you often use words that make your statements sound weaker.
  4. 4. © 2020 ThoughtWorks You could be even more confident.
  5. 5. © 2020 ThoughtWorks You could be even more confident.
  6. 6. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Thank you, I will consider that. You could be even more confident.
  7. 7. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Thank you, I will consider that. But... You could be even more confident.
  8. 8. Reference: Daniel Kahneman, “Thinking fast and slow“. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  9. 9. Reference: Daniel Kahneman, “Thinking fast and slow“. “People are generally rational” © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  10. 10. Reference: Daniel Kahneman, “Thinking fast and slow“. “People are generally rational” “Emotions explain the exceptions” © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  11. 11. “People are generally rational” “Emotions explain the exceptions” © 2020 ThoughtWorks Cognitive biases
  12. 12. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  13. 13. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: Wikipedia
  14. 14. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Confirmation bias Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms our existing beliefs
  15. 15. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  16. 16. Confirmation bias at al © 2020 ThoughtWorks Don’t repeat yourself, ever.
  17. 17. Software development is full of uncertainty © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  18. 18. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: The Guardian, 2016
  19. 19. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a overall risk.
  20. 20. Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  21. 21. Security Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  22. 22. Security Avoiding lock-in Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  23. 23. Security Avoiding lock-in Premature optimization Zero risk bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  24. 24. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Availability heuristicOur tendency to think that if something can be easily recalled, it must be important
  25. 25. Use models © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  26. 26. Use models © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  27. 27. Use models © 2020 ThoughtWorks Security Threat modelling
  28. 28. Avoiding Lock-in © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: Martin Fowler Use models
  29. 29. “Don’t get locked up in avoiding lock-in” - Gregor Hohpe
  30. 30. Be explicit about trade-offs © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  31. 31. Do Be agile © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  32. 32. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  33. 33. Software development is full of uncertainty © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  34. 34. Architecture is “the important stuff that people perceive as hard to change” - Martin Fowler
  35. 35. Learning from Our decisions © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  36. 36. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Outcome bias Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision based on the outcome of that decision.
  37. 37. Security © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
  38. 38. Security © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
  39. 39. Security © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision ?
  40. 40. © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
  41. 41. © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision
  42. 42. © 2020 ThoughtWorks OutcomeDecision ?
  43. 43. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  44. 44. Distinguish skill from luck © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  45. 45. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  46. 46. ”...given what we knew at the time, our skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.” - Prime Directive
  47. 47. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Self-service bias When we ascribe success to our own abilities and efforts, but blame failure on external factors
  48. 48. © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  49. 49. “Redefining right” © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  50. 50. © 2020 ThoughtWorks Reference: Annie Duke, “Thinking in Bets”.
  51. 51. Write architecture decision records © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  52. 52. Be explicit about trade-offs © 2020 ThoughtWorks
  53. 53. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias
  54. 54. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias
  55. 55. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias more
  56. 56. Confirmation bias © 2020 ThoughtWorks Zero risk bias Availability heuristic Outcome bias Self-serving bias more
  57. 57. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.”
  58. 58. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean?
  59. 59. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean?
  60. 60. © 2020 ThoughtWorks “You could be even more confident.” What does that even mean? Do I really want to?
  61. 61. ● “I’m not sure”
  62. 62. ● “I’m not sure” ● Asking questions
  63. 63. ● “I’m not sure” ● Asking questions ● Changing my mind
  64. 64. “Using uncertainty to our advantage” - Annie Duke
  65. 65. © 2020 ThoughtWorks How confident are you about your confidence?
  66. 66. Birgitta Böckeler @birgitta410 Obrigada © 2020 ThoughtWorks

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