2. What Is A Spread?
• Point Differential
• Added to favored team to determine adjusted score
• Attempts to get 50% of betters on each side of the bet*
• Different than trying to be accurate. For example: large fan-base skew
• Rule of Thumb: Home Team starts with -3
• Come back from a horrible start
in my league
• Pet project in R that motivates
• Google Spreadsheet
• Download as CSV
• Blank copy you can edit:
18. Have I Learned Anything?
• Yes, a lot more R
• League position improved from
basement to basement stairs
• Don’t pick home underdogs
19. What Comes Next?
• Calculate Correct, other columns
• Clustering by spread size
• Model training (machine learning… caret?)
• My performance vs recommendation
• Break out web pages further (league, my performance,
20. Your Turn
• Google Docs http://bit.ly/1xLvg64
Any specific requests?
then show Picks.R to show all the permutations we’re calculating
credit to R Workshop (Robert Kabacoff)
Teams.R (needs improvement)
I’m doing poorly overall, but…
highlight home underdogs
highlight away favorites
Not terribly useful
predicting my results going forward
summary(bt_model) shows not significant
summary(bw_model) is mixed
week not a sig factor
but model is?
show git stash
Topics they would like covered?