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Q1 2017 Talent Market Quarterly

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Latest global labor market trends.

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Q1 2017 Talent Market Quarterly

  1. 1. FIRST QUARTER | 2017
  2. 2. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y Source: IHS Global Insight (February 2017). Annual average estimated/projected growth in real GDP and annual average estimated/projected unemployment rates.2 India Australia China Japan France Germany Russia UK Brazil Canada US Mexico WORLD 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% UnemploymentRate(2017p) GDP Growth (2017p) Despite considerable uncertainty in the political environment worldwide, global economic and labor market growth is projected to strengthen in 2017 and 2018, led by key fundamentals including US expansion, dollar appreciation, and higher commodity prices. While the current outlook remains positive, risks also abound, as the world waits to see how the policies of a new presidential administration in the US, the beginning of the Brexit process in the UK, the implementation of the new Five-Year Plan in China, and significant elections across Europe play out. Q 1 ‘ 1 7 G L O B A L E C O N O M I C & L A B O R M A R K E T S N A P S H O T 0% 2% 4% 6% 2020p 2019p 2018p 2017p G D P G r o w t h WORLD AMER EMEA APAC 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2020p 2019p 2018p 2017p U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e WORLD AMER EMEA APAC
  3. 3. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2017); 2017 Legal Calendar North America, SIA; Lexology.com3 The economy is expected to stabilize as 2017 progresses, but activity, as well as business and consumer sentiment, remain poor. The labor market is similarly troubled, with the unemployment rate approaching 12% after massive job losses in 2016. 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 6.9% 6.6% 6.4% 6.4% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment Although growth was somewhat subdued due to oil price issues in recent years, the Canadian economy is expected to strengthen in the short term. Employment gains also started to pick up in the second half of 2016, and are forecast to maintain momentum in 2017. Numerous tailwinds are ushering the US economy into 2017, including a pickup in the energy sector, a strong housing market, and mild inflationary signals. Employers continue to add jobs at a brisk pace, but one that is slowing as labor market slack is absorbed. Mexico’s economic outlook has diminished following the US election, as the new administration has raised the possibility of lower investment and protectionist measures against Mexico. Still, formal employment is expected to accelerate slightly in 2017. A M E R 0.3% 1.9% 3.3% 3.8% 11.7% 11.0% 9.7% 8.6% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment Americas regional economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2017 and 2018, driven by increased optimism, fiscal stimulus, and a pro-business environment in the US; strengthening in the oil and gas sector; and a slow recovery process in key South American markets. BRAZIL CANADA 2.3% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 4.2% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment US 1.7% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment MEXICO L E G I S L A T I V E H I G H L I G H T S U N I T E D S T A T E S An executive order signed in January 2017 gives instructions to the federal government to dismantle the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by taking steps to “waive, defer, grant exemptions from or delay” any taxes or penalties to the extent permitted by law. In order to repeal and/or replace the ACA further legislation must be passed by the Senate. U N I T E D S T A T E S Higher minimum wages went into effect in 19 states as of January 2017; Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Oregon and will see minimum wage increases in July. In addition, minimum wages will go up in at least 22 cities and four counties in 2017. C A N A D A The final Changing Workplaces Review report is expected by the end of February 2017. The report will have recommendations on amending Ontario’s labor laws, with an aim to reflect contemporary issues such as non-standard employment.
  4. 4. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y 4 A better-than-expected end to 2016 has raised France’s growth prospects for 2017, although uncertainty over the spring presidential elections is dampening the outlook. Year-end employment figures also point to a labor market that continues to very gradually improve. 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 6.0% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment Germany’s economy has been remarkably resilient, and will continue along in that vein in the near future. The unemployment rate is also forecast to remain near historic lows, as job creation continues and the flexible labor market absorbs the recent influx of immigrants. Economic growth remains resilient in the UK, although the formal onset of the Brexit process in 2017 is likely to bring uncertainty and subsequent softness. The labor market is also holding up as of now, but unemployment is expected to edge up as the year and the uncertainty progress. The fourth quarter saw a surprising uptick in GDP, but the Russian economy will still struggle to emerge from recession in 2017 as consumer and investment activity remains problematic. The labor market also faces issues, including a court order that blocked access to LinkedIn. E M E A 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.3% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment FRANCE GERMANY 1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 5.2% 5.7% 6.0% 5.8% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment UK 0.8% 1.7% 2.1% 2.8% 5.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment RUSSIA L E G I S L A T I V E H I G H L I G H T S P O L A N D Under a new regulation, a mandatory minimum hourly wage for independent contractors is in effect as of January 1 2017. B E L G I U M A draft bill that proposes several structural reforms of the labor market has been approved by the Council of Ministers. Under the new reforms, indefinite temporary contracts would be permissible. The reforms also include measures surrounding leave policies, part time work, and provisions to increase flexibility for both workers and employers. The Bill will be submitted for approval to the Chamber of Representatives. Western Europe is on a slow growth trajectory, with risks in 2017 coming from elections in Germany, France, and other countries, and the kick-off of the Brexit process in the UK. Growth in Emerging Europe and the Middle East is constrained by low regional demand and depressed oil prices. Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2017); SIA Europe Legal Update, Q4 2016; SIA Daily News, 11.18.16 G E R M A N Y A new wage agreement for the temporary employment sector was reached in November 2016. The new rate changes will take effect March 1 2017 with regular increases through the end of 2019. The new Temporary Employment Act (AÜG) also comes into force on April 1 2017.
  5. 5. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y 5 The forecast calls for moderate economic growth in the short term, driven by growth in exports and improvements in private consumption and investment. Unemployment is expected to be similarly stable, hovering in the 5.7%-5.5% range over the next couple of years. 7.1% 7.6% 7.5% 7.7% 8.6% 8.1% 7.9% 7.7% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment China’s economic growth is expected to continue to slow modestly over the next few years as the housing market and other issues—both domestic and international—pose challenges. The State Council aims to add more than 50 million new jobs in urban areas from 2016 to 2020. Modest growth is forecast for Japan, driven by domestic demand but constrained by uncertainties over the global economy and volatile foreign-exchange rates. The labor market remains extremely tight, with the job openings to applicants ratio at a more than 25-year high. The government’s demonetization policy dented growth in 2016, but the economy is expected to bounce back above 7% in 2017 helped by a fiscal stimulus plan. Likewise, hiring plans are becoming more positive and unemployment is forecast to fall. A P A C 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment APAC is still the regional growth leader, although both China and India have seen somewhat slower growth than usual in 2016. China’s gradual cooling is predicted to continue, while other Asian economies are forecast to see a slight uptick, leading to a stable regional outlook. AUSTRALIAINDIA 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment JAPAN 6.5% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Growth Unemployment CHINA L E G I S L A T I V E H I G H L I G H T S C H I N A Three new regulations for enforcing labor laws have come into place in 2017. Provisions include a new ranking system for companies based on their labor law compliance history; public announcements of severe labor law infractions; and random inspections of companies’ employment information/ practices. I N D I A The government has proposed to streamline 44 labor laws into five new comprehensive laws: The Labour Code on Industrial Relations, The Labour Code on Wages, Industry and Safety Welfare Code, Social Security Code, and Small Factories Code. The Labour Code on Industrial Relations and the Labour Code on Wages are expected to be introduced during the 2017 winter session of Parliament. Sources: IHS Global Insight (February 2017); SIA APAC Legal Update, Q4 2016; 2017 Asia Employment Law Forecast, DLA Piper; Reuters, 02.07.17; Economic Times, 02.10.17 J A P A N Several new regulations that provide expanded and more flexible child and family leave take effect in 2017.
  6. 6. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y 6 W O R L D G L O B A L TA L E N T S P O T L I G H T : T H E P R O D U C T I V I T Y PA R A D O X P R O D U C T I V I T Y G R O W T H S L U M P S T U M P S E X P E R T S Growth in worker productivity—defined as the amount of output (GDP) per hour worked—has been slowing in many major economies in recent (and not so recent) years. Although productivity growth rates remain below pre-recession levels in many countries, research from the OECD shows that the slowdown began well before the crisis in developed economies ranging from Canada to Japan to France and Germany. This slowdown is occurring at the same time as several phenomena that traditionally have accelerated productivity— significant technological change, increasing globalization of firms and countries, and rising education levels in the labor force—causing economists to look closely for the reasons behind the productivity paradox. Many theories have been posed, ranging from potential lagged effects of new technologies, a slowdown of innovation, or a breakdown in the diffusion of technologies, to questions about how productivity is measured. Another debate: whether the productivity declines are more structural or cyclical in nature. So far, no definitive conclusions have been reached, but solving the dilemma behind the deceleration may lead to a greater understanding of how to raise productivity in the future. Source: OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2016 and Productivity Database. Productivity data is GDP per hour worked in USD, constant prices, 2010 PPPs 0% 2% 4% 6% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 G7 Trendline -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 Canada -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 Australia -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 France -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 Germany -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 United Kingdom -5% 0% 5% 10% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 Japan -2% 0% 2% 4% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 United States T R E N D I N W O R K E R P R O D U C T I V I T Y G R O W T H , G 7 C O U N T R I E S $40 $48 $49 $53 $59 $61 $63 Japan UK Canada Australia Germany France US W O R K E R P R O D U C T I V I T Y , G 7 C O U N T R I E S GDP per hour worked in USD, constant prices, 2010 PPPs Trendline Trendline Trendline Trendline Trendline Trendline Trendline
  7. 7. G l o b a l T a l e n t M a r k e t Q u a r t e r l y 7 I N D U S T R Y W O R K F O R C E S O L U T I O N S S P O T L I G H T : V A L U E - A D D E D R P O Sources: RPO Annual Report 2016, Everest Group; Targeting RPO, Nelson Hall, 2016 S T E P P I N G U P T H E V A L U E O F R P O With labor markets around the globe tightening and the war for talent intensifying, organizations are increasingly looking for additional expertise when it comes to attracting and hiring talent and optimizing their workforces. As a result, more and more companies are turning to their RPO providers for more sophisticated processes, targeted talent offerings, and innovative techniques. According to Everest, more than half of RPO contracts now include employer branding and talent community responsibilities, and nearly thee quarters of all RPO deals include talent assessment. And Nelson Hall reports that specialty RPO service offerings targeting specific worker populations, such as campus recruiting and diversity hiring, also continue to gain traction. The benefits of higher-level RPO can be significant, ranging from broader talent access to lower attrition rates to greater alignment with business strategies. 45% 40% 22% 62% 54% 51% 32% 74% Employer Branding Talent Communities Workforce Planning Assessment I N C L U S I O N O F V A L U E - A D D E D P R O C E S S E S I N R P O D E A L S 2014 2015 TARGETED RPO SERVICE OFFERINGS Campus Recruiting Veteran/ Military Hiring Diversity Hiring Seasonal Hiring Provided to ~35% of RPO clients Provided to ~60% of RPO clients, up from ~40% B E N E F I T S O F V A L U E - A D D E D R P O S E R V I C E S Employer Branding Talent Communities Workforce Planning Assessment Improve quality of hire    Better access to scarce talent   Reduce time to hire   Reduce new hire attrition    Optimize internal resources   Alignment to organizational strategy  
  8. 8. ABOUT KELLY SERVICES® As a global leader in providing workforce solutions, Kelly Services, Inc. (Nasdaq: KELYA, KELYB) and its subsidiaries offer a comprehensive array of outsourcing and consulting services as well as world-class staffing on a temporary, temporary-to-hire, and direct-hire basis. Kelly® directly employs nearly 500,000 people around the world in addition to having a role in connecting thousands more with work through its global network of talent suppliers and partners. Revenue in 2016 was $5.3 billion. Visit kellyservices.com and connect with us on Facebook, LinkedIn, & Twitter. A KELLY SERVICES REPORT All trademarks are property of their respective owners. An Equal Opportunity Employer. © 2017 Kelly Services, Inc. 16-0084 Kelly Services Inc. makes no representation or warranty with respect to the material contained within this report. kellyservices.com

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