28 June 2010
Global Product Market Trends
The Outlook for NOCs
Johannes BenigniJohannes Benigni
JBC Energy GmbHJBC Energy ...
28 June 2010 Slide 2
Disclaimer
All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forwa...
28 June 2010 Slide 3
Price Formation
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 ...
28 June 2010 Slide 4
Price Formation
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08...
28 June 2010 Slide 5
Crude Prices & Markets
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Floating
Storage
2009
[mbbls]
end-Jan end-Feb end-Mar ...
28 June 2010 Slide 6
Demand – Short-Term Picture
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Germany Italy France UK...
28 June 2010 Slide 7
Demand – Short-Term Picture
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct ...
28 June 2010 Slide 8
China Products
0.55
0.575
0.6
0.625
0.65
0.675
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
0.2
0...
28 June 2010 Slide 9
Demand – Long-Term Outlook
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
North
America
OECD
Europe
OECD AsiaNon-OECD
Europe
FSU Ea...
28 June 2010 Slide 10
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
2009 2020
Components of U...
28 June 2010 Slide 11
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4.00
2009 2020
Components of EU-27 ...
28 June 2010 Slide 12
Demand – Road Transportation Fuels
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20...
28 June 2010 Slide 13
6,683
5,404
4,097
282
444
472 1,220
1,886
2,858
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,00...
28 June 2010 Slide 14
Demand – Fuel Oil
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Middle East C & S America Non-OECD
Asia
FSU East Africa...
28 June 2010 Slide 15
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2...
28 June 2010 Slide 16
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
World Shipping Routes
28 June 2010 Slide 17
Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
100
75
60
90
50
1480
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Global Impa...
28 June 2010 Slide 18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026...
28 June 2010 Slide 19
Refining Capacity Outlook
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 20...
28 June 2010 Slide 20
Refining
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
US EU15 + Norway Japan South Korea India China Russia
Q1-2008 Q1-2009...
28 June 2010 Slide 21
Refining
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Avg 05-09 2010
2006 200...
28 June 2010 Slide 22
Refining
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IOC
NOC
World Refining Ca...
28 June 2010 Slide 23
Refining
Selected Refining Capacity Increases in Middle East & Asia ['000 b/d]
Syria
Expected: 0
Kno...
28 June 2010 Slide 24
FSU East Special
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020...
28 June 2010 Slide 25
Refining Capacity Outlook
Refinery Shutdown Potential & Expected CDU Additions By 2020 ['000 b/d]
So...
28 June 2010 Slide 26
Product Balances, Flows & Margins
Major Non-OECD Asian Gas Oil/Diesel Flows (2008-2013-2018) ['000 b...
28 June 2010 Slide 27
Thank You!
www.jbcenergy.com
Research – Energy Studies – Consulting – Training
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Johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress

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Johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.

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Johannes benigni's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress

  1. 1. 28 June 2010 Global Product Market Trends The Outlook for NOCs Johannes BenigniJohannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbHJBC Energy GmbH June 24, 2010June 24, 2010 ResearchResearch -- Energy StudiesEnergy Studies -- ConsultingConsulting -- TrainingTraining World National Oil Companies Congress
  2. 2. 28 June 2010 Slide 2 Disclaimer All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, “forecast”, “predict”, “think”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation.
  3. 3. 28 June 2010 Slide 3 Price Formation 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10 -10.00 -7.50 -5.00 -2.50 0.00 2.50 5.00 Nymex WTI Vs ICE Brent FL - right scale ICE Brent FL Nymex WTI FL Nymex WTI and ICE Brent (FL) [$/bbl] Source: CME Group, ICE
  4. 4. 28 June 2010 Slide 4 Price Formation 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Light/Heavy to US Light/Heavy to Asia Light/Heavy to Europe (NWE) Q1 2010 avg: $78.75/bbl Arab Light/Arab Heavy Differentials By Region [$/bbl] Source: Saudi Aramco Outright price of WTI Cushing in Oct 2003: $29.65/bbl
  5. 5. 28 June 2010 Slide 5 Crude Prices & Markets 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Floating Storage 2009 [mbbls] end-Jan end-Feb end-Mar end-Apr end-May end-June end-July end-Aug end-Sept end-OctSource: JBC Energy estimate based on info from SSY, Platts, Charles R. Weber, Argus, WSJ, Gibson, Poten, Thomson Reuters Estimated Oil in Floating Storage as of End-May 2010 USGC WAF EUROPE 18-22 million barrels crude 5-8 million barrels crude 7-10 million barrels crude 22 - 25 million barrels of middle distillates Asia/Pacific PG 48-52 million barrels crude 2-4 million barrels crude 9 - 11 million barrels of middle distillates 2 - 4 million barrels of middle distillates Crude end-Apr '09 100-105 end-May'09 80-90 end-Jun '09 65-70 end-Jul '09 55 end-Aug '09 40-50 end-Sep '09 34-46 end-Oct '09 40-45 end-Nov '09 34-40 end-Dec '09 40-45 end-Jan '10 30-38 end-Feb '10 25-30 end-Mar '10 35-45 end-Apr '10 50-70 end-May '10 80-96 90-95 43-55 55-65 33-40 32-39 95-100 75-85 Floating Storage [mbbls] Gas Oil/ Jet-Kero 20-25 30-35 50-55 55-60 45-55 60-70 85-95
  6. 6. 28 June 2010 Slide 6 Demand – Short-Term Picture -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Germany Italy France UK Spain US Mexico Brazil ArgentinaSouth Korea Japan China India Taiwan Russia Iran Saudi Arabia 2008 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2009 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2010 Gasoline Demand over Q1 2007 2008 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007 2009 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007 2010 Gas Oil/Diesel Demand over Q1 2007 2008/2009/2010 Q1 Gasoline and Gas Oil/Diesel Demand Change on Q1 2007 ['000 b/d] Source: Official Data, JODI
  7. 7. 28 June 2010 Slide 7 Demand – Short-Term Picture 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Gas Oil Gasoline Naphtha Chinese Apparent Oil Product Demand ['000 b/d] Source: Official Government Data, Thomson Reuters
  8. 8. 28 June 2010 Slide 8 China Products 0.55 0.575 0.6 0.625 0.65 0.675 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 0.2 0.225 0.25 0.275 0.3 0.325 Gasoline+diesel output in % of total output Naphtha+LPG+Jet/kero output in % of total output - right Chinese Product Yields [%] Sources: Official Government Data, JBC Energy calculations
  9. 9. 28 June 2010 Slide 9 Demand – Long-Term Outlook -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 North America OECD Europe OECD AsiaNon-OECD Europe FSU EastAfricaCentral & South America Middle EastNon-OECD Asia LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Gas Oil/Diesel Fuel Oil Other Products Regional Oil Demand Growth by Products 2009-2015 [mbpd]
  10. 10. 28 June 2010 Slide 10 Demand – Road Transportation Fuels 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 2009 2020 Components of US Gasoline Demand 2009-2020 [mbpd] 2009 Refinery Based Gasoline Demand 8.3 million b/d Additional Demand for Bioethanol - 219,000 b/d* *: energy adjusted Change in Passenger Kilometers and Travel Mode + 988,000 b/d Change in the fleet structure (gasoline vs. diesel) - 304,000 b/d Hybrids, LPG, CNG, Full Electric - 404,000 b/d Efficiency Gain - 2.48 mbpd 2020 Refinery Based Gasoline Demand 5.88 million b/d
  11. 11. 28 June 2010 Slide 11 Demand – Road Transportation Fuels 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 2009 2020 Components of EU-27 Transportation Diesel Demand 2009-2020 [mbpd] 2008 Refinery Based Diesel Demand 3.7 mbpd Additional Demand for Biodiesel - 154,000 b/d* *: energy adjusted Change in Passenger Kilometers and Travel Mode + 68,000 b/d Change in Tonne Kilometers and Freight Mode + 259,000 b/d Hybrids, LPG, CNG, Full Electric - 34,000 b/d Efficiency Gain in Goods Vehicles and Busses - 208,000 b/d Change in the fleet structure (gasoline vs. diesel) -47,000 b/d Efficiency Gain in Passenger Cars - 192,000 b/d 2020 Refinery Based Diesel Demand 3.4 mbpd
  12. 12. 28 June 2010 Slide 12 Demand – Road Transportation Fuels 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 JBC Energy SuDeP - base case Moderate Scenario High Impact Scenario China Gasoline Demand - Electrification/Hybridisation Scenarios [mbpd] By 2020, gasoline demand in the "high impact" scenario is 380,000 b/d lower than in the base case. Due to scrapped gasoline cars being replaced by EVs, demand growth continuous to flatten. JBC Energy estimates "Passenger car density" only relates to passenger vehicles and does not take account of larger vans or LCVs Scenario Fleet Size Fleet Share of EV Fleet Share of HEV Fleet Share of PHEV Base Case 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 6.0% 1.5% 1.5% Moderate Scenario 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 10.0% 1.25% 3.75% High Impact Scenario 85 million (60/1000 inh.) 25.0% 7.5% 7.5% Scenario Assumptions for 2020 General Assumption: Average fuel consumption will decline from 8.5 l/100 km to 5.5l/100 km by 2020
  13. 13. 28 June 2010 Slide 13 6,683 5,404 4,097 282 444 472 1,220 1,886 2,858 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Scenario Actual Difference - right scale Total Oil Demand - China ['000 b/d] Oil demand is assumed to be a function of GDP, (retail) prices, and pre-period demand Scenario Demand based on constant oil price of $24.46 / bbl LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Gas Oil Fuel Oil Price -0.112 -0.072 -0.056 -0.060 -0.171 -0.219 Income 0.101 0.210 0.414 0.741 0.409 0.144 Demand (t-1) 0.950 0.802 0.586 0.000 0.692 0.950 (Retail) Price and Income Elasticities of Oil Demand used to calibrate Model - China Scenario
  14. 14. 28 June 2010 Slide 14 Demand – Fuel Oil -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 Middle East C & S America Non-OECD Asia FSU East Africa North America Europe OECD Asia Gas Oil Fuel Oil Crude Oil Regional Change in Oil Consumption for Power Generation 2009-2015 [´000 b/d]
  15. 15. 28 June 2010 Slide 15 Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Global ECA ECA And Global Sulphur Limits [%] Source: IMO
  16. 16. 28 June 2010 Slide 16 Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook World Shipping Routes
  17. 17. 28 June 2010 Slide 17 Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook 100 75 60 90 50 1480 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Global Impact of 0.5% (2025 est) Mediterranean (2020 est) Japan & Korea (2018 est) North Sea (2016 est) US & Canada (2012) Baltic Sea & English Channel (2006/07) Impact of Regulation on Bunker Fuel Demand from 2015 onwards ['000 b/d, %] XX 0.4% 0.4% 2% XX% 5% 32% 9% Bunker Fuel Oil that has to be replaced by Gas Oil in 2015 or year or later year of new legislation['000 b/d] Share of ships with scrubbers installed in 2015 or year or later year of new legislation [%]
  18. 18. 28 June 2010 Slide 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Gas Oil Demand Without Adjustment Shift from FO to GO Fuel Oil Demand Before Adjustment Scrubber Implementation Rate Regulatory Change and Bunker Fuel Demand & Scrubber Adoption rate [mbpd / %] Long-Term Bunker Fuel Outlook
  19. 19. 28 June 2010 Slide 19 Refining Capacity Outlook 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 OECD Oil Products Demand Non-OECD Products Demand OECD Refinery Capacity (forecast disregards likely shutdowns) Non-OECD Refinery Capacity Oil Market's Shift from OECD to non-OECD - Demand & Refining Capacity [mbpd]
  20. 20. 28 June 2010 Slide 20 Refining 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 US EU15 + Norway Japan South Korea India China Russia Q1-2008 Q1-2009 Q1-2010 Q1 2008-2009-2010 Refinery Throughput in Selected Countries [million bpd] Source: National Statistics US Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: -750 kbd EU Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: -1.33 mbd China Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: +1.35 mbd India Q1 2010 vs. Q1 2008: +630 kbd
  21. 21. 28 June 2010 Slide 21 Refining 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 05-09 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 EU-15 & Norway Refinery Utilisation [%] Source: Euroilstock
  22. 22. 28 June 2010 Slide 22 Refining 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 IOC NOC World Refining Capacity By Ownership, projects >50,000 b/d ['000 b/d] 78% of additional crude distillation capacity expected to come onstream is owned by NOCs.
  23. 23. 28 June 2010 Slide 23 Refining Selected Refining Capacity Increases in Middle East & Asia ['000 b/d] Syria Expected: 0 Known: 380 China Expected: 4.216 Known: 9.351 Egypt Expected: 0 Known: 350 India Expected: 1.071 Known: 3.931 Iran Expected: 505 Known: 1.215 Irak Expected: 230 Known: 1.310 Kuwait Expected: 64 Known: 14 Lebanon Expected: 0 Known: 100 Libya Expected: 220 Known: 960 Oman Expected: 0 Known: 300 Pakistan Expected: 250 Known: 573 Qatar Expected: 0 Known: 250 Saudi Arabia Expected: 1.200 Known: 1.750 UAE Expected: 417 Known: 417 Yemen Expected: 320 Known: 1.410 JBC Energy Expectation: 8.5 million b/d Known projects: 22 million b/d
  24. 24. 28 June 2010 Slide 24 FSU East Special 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 2008 2020 Russia Europe Middle East US OECD Asia World Desulphuriaton conversion Regional Comparison of Downstream Complexity [%]
  25. 25. 28 June 2010 Slide 25 Refining Capacity Outlook Refinery Shutdown Potential & Expected CDU Additions By 2020 ['000 b/d] Source: JBC Energy estimates Shutdown potential in '000 b/d Resulting utilisation in 2020 -4500 84.2% -400 87.0% -3400 81.7% -200 86.6% -200 79.9% -1800 87.1% Asia -300 80.7%846 731 723 375 2651 630 6310 Gross additions -3654 331 -2677 175 2451 330 4510 Net change Africa Middle East Europe North America FSU East Latin America
  26. 26. 28 June 2010 Slide 26 Product Balances, Flows & Margins Major Non-OECD Asian Gas Oil/Diesel Flows (2008-2013-2018) ['000 b/d] 149 147 230 132 196 104 Only trade flows higher than 50,000 b/d are displayed. Source: JBC Energy estimates 2008 2013 2018 GasOil Middle East North America C&S America Europe 254 210 203 FSU East 390 290 260 100 120 128 111 161 230 60 64 106 OECD Asia OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia Africa
  27. 27. 28 June 2010 Slide 27 Thank You! www.jbcenergy.com Research – Energy Studies – Consulting – Training

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