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Mapping and Analysing
Multi-dimensional Child Poverty
at the Local Government Area Level
in Nigeria: A Small Area Estimati...
Structure
1) Child Poverty
2) Small Area Estimation
3) Maps and results
4) Applicationsand next steps
What defines that a child is poor?
Child Poverty
Child right violations
Nutrition
Education
Water and Sanitation
Health
Ho...
Continuum of Deprivation and Child Poverty
No Deprivation Extreme Deprivation
Mild Moderate Severe
E.g. : Childrenwho have...
How do we measure Child Poverty?
Combining Deprivations
Lack of health service
Lack of water
No Education
.
Malnutrition
T...
Measuring child poverty
In this case, with a threshold of 1 unfulfilled right,
50 % of the children would be considered po...
Rivers
Ekiti
Osun
Lagos
Ogun
Oyo
Delta
Bayelsa
Ondo
Edo
Kogi
Niger
Kwara
Kebbi
Kaduna
Sokoto
Zamfara
Adamawa
AbiaImo
Anamb...
Small Area Estimates (I)
• Nigeria: 36 States + FCT
• 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs)
• MICS 2016, representative only a...
Small Area Estimates (II)
• But Census does not cover all Child Poverty
indicators
– Water
– Sanitation
– Education
– Hous...
Small Area Estimates (III)
• State level data from MICS
• Correlations
• Logistic Regressions
– Nutrition on water, sanita...
State
LGA
Household
Water
Sanitation Nutrition
HealthEducation
EducationWater Sanitation
Information
Housing
Housing Infor...
Non-linear Multivariate Regression
(a linear one will not do as it would predict more than 100% coverage)
O
100 % immuniza...
Non-linear Multivariate Regression (II)
• Coefficients used on LGA data from Census
– E.g. if usage of improved sources of...
State
LGA
Household
Water
Sanitation Nutrition
HealthEducation
EducationWater Sanitation
Water Sanitation
Education
Aggreg...
State
LGA
Household
Water
Sanitation Nutrition
HealthEducation
EducationWater Sanitation
Water Sanitation
Education
Housin...
Maps and results
Map1: % Childrenwith no educationof who dropped out of
school
Map2: % Childrenwith no immunization
Map3: % Childrenwithout access to safe water
Map4: % Childrenwithout access to sanitation
Map5 % MalnourishedChildren(3 standard deviations)
ChildPoverty (%)
Maps and results :
Results (Finding)
• Lack of water, sanitation, health, and shelter are
most severe in the North-East an...
Applications and next steps
• LGAs ranked from highest to lowest incidence of
Child Poverty
• LGAs clustered in 3 groups: ...
THANK YOU!
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Putting Children First: Session 1.6.A Saleem Falowo - Mapping and analysing multidimensional child poverty at local level in Nigeria [23-Oct-17]

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Putting Children First: Identifying solutions and taking action to tackle poverty and inequality in Africa.
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 23-25 October 2017

This three-day international conference aimed to engage policy makers, practitioners and researchers in identifying solutions for fighting child poverty and inequality in Africa, and in inspiring action towards change. The conference offered a platform for bridging divides across sectors, disciplines and policy, practice and research.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Putting Children First: Session 1.6.A Saleem Falowo - Mapping and analysing multidimensional child poverty at local level in Nigeria [23-Oct-17]

  1. 1. Mapping and Analysing Multi-dimensional Child Poverty at the Local Government Area Level in Nigeria: A Small Area Estimation Approach Falowo S., Ajibuah B. J. and Egharevba B. Addis Ababa -October, 2017
  2. 2. Structure 1) Child Poverty 2) Small Area Estimation 3) Maps and results 4) Applicationsand next steps
  3. 3. What defines that a child is poor? Child Poverty Child right violations Nutrition Education Water and Sanitation Health Housing Information .
  4. 4. Continuum of Deprivation and Child Poverty No Deprivation Extreme Deprivation Mild Moderate Severe E.g. : Childrenwho have never been to school Childrenin dwellings with more than five people per room Childrenwhose heights and weights are 3 SD below the norm
  5. 5. How do we measure Child Poverty? Combining Deprivations Lack of health service Lack of water No Education . Malnutrition There are not 7 but 4 deprived children
  6. 6. Measuring child poverty In this case, with a threshold of 1 unfulfilled right, 50 % of the children would be considered poor. We also know which children are missing which right. Access to: A B C D Water (Only surface water such as rivers or ponds) √ √ √ √ Sanitation (No access to a toilet facility of any kind) √ √ NO √ Health (No immunization against any diseases) √ √ √ √ Nutrition (3 st. dev. below the international norm) √ √ NO √ Shelter (Five or more people per room) √ NO √ √ Education (Never been to school) √ √ √ √ Information (No radio, television, or mobile phone) √ √ NO √ Poor:At least one right not fulfilled NO √ √ NO
  7. 7. Rivers Ekiti Osun Lagos Ogun Oyo Delta Bayelsa Ondo Edo Kogi Niger Kwara Kebbi Kaduna Sokoto Zamfara Adamawa AbiaImo Anambra Enugu CrossRiver AkwaIbom Benue Ebonyi Taraba Plateau FCT Nassarawa Katsina Kano Jigawa GombeBauchi Yobe Borno Incidence of child poverty 80- 90% Above 90% 70- 80 % 40-60 % 60 - 70 %
  8. 8. Small Area Estimates (I) • Nigeria: 36 States + FCT • 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs) • MICS 2016, representative only at State level – Kano and Lagos oversampled • Census 2006, representative at smallest administrativelevel – Can be aggregated to be representative at LGA level
  9. 9. Small Area Estimates (II) • But Census does not cover all Child Poverty indicators – Water – Sanitation – Education – Housing – Information • How to obtain LGA estimates?
  10. 10. Small Area Estimates (III) • State level data from MICS • Correlations • Logistic Regressions – Nutrition on water, sanitation, education – Immunization on water, sanitation, education • Coefficientsused on LGA data from Census • Estimate LGA Nutrition and Immunization
  11. 11. State LGA Household Water Sanitation Nutrition HealthEducation EducationWater Sanitation Information Housing Housing Information
  12. 12. Non-linear Multivariate Regression (a linear one will not do as it would predict more than 100% coverage) O 100 % immunization X3 = SanitationX2 = WaterX1 = Education
  13. 13. Non-linear Multivariate Regression (II) • Coefficients used on LGA data from Census – E.g. if usage of improved sources of drinking water is 30%, – if usage of improved sanitation facilities is 20%, – and if net primary school attendance is 55%, – then stunting is expected to be 42% – As it is not a linear regression, slopes are not constant • Estimate LGA Nutrition and Immunization – They cannot be calculated from MICS for LGA
  14. 14. State LGA Household Water Sanitation Nutrition HealthEducation EducationWater Sanitation Water Sanitation Education Aggregation from households (from Census) to LGA level Housing Housing Information Information Housing Information
  15. 15. State LGA Household Water Sanitation Nutrition HealthEducation EducationWater Sanitation Water Sanitation Education Housing Housing Information Information Housing Information Regression coefficients used on available LGA data Nutrition Health Aggregation from households (from Census) to LGA level
  16. 16. Maps and results Map1: % Childrenwith no educationof who dropped out of school
  17. 17. Map2: % Childrenwith no immunization
  18. 18. Map3: % Childrenwithout access to safe water
  19. 19. Map4: % Childrenwithout access to sanitation
  20. 20. Map5 % MalnourishedChildren(3 standard deviations)
  21. 21. ChildPoverty (%)
  22. 22. Maps and results : Results (Finding) • Lack of water, sanitation, health, and shelter are most severe in the North-East and North-West. • LGAs where there are the city centers have better access to educationand safe and clean water • Bad and Worst LGAs are mostly rural • This information and the classificationinto Worst, Bad, Middle, Good, and Best LGAs is being used to assess and evaluate national and donor-funded strategies and their locationsin Nigeria.
  23. 23. Applications and next steps • LGAs ranked from highest to lowest incidence of Child Poverty • LGAs clustered in 3 groups: High, Medium, Low Child Poverty • LGAs ranked from highest to lowest for each separate dimension of Child Poverty • LGAs classified as ConsistentlyGood, Average, Bad across the dimensions • The two rankings combined in a 3X3 table • Table used to obtain five groups: Best, Good, Middle,Bad, Worst LGAs
  24. 24. THANK YOU!

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