If the survey results of Bloomberg are anything to go by, gold futures are
poised to climb next week. Nineteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg think
that gold futures may rise next week even as nine analysts were bearish and
Gold as of last quarter has lost 23% y/y and witnessed acceleration in
declines as US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that the
Quantitative Easing measures announced by Fed would see a tapering
starting second half of this year.
However, this week the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for June
released has showed a bias towards continuing with QE measures. Ben
Bernanke himself said that the monetary policy would remain
accommodative for the foreseeable time as the revival in economy is fragile.
This created a rally in futures as prices breached the $1280 mark, an area of
“With the Fed comments, with the increased cost of funding a short position
and some recalibration in peoples’ thinking about the end of quantitative
easing, the onus is really on the bears now,” said Ross Norman, chief
executive officer of Sharps Pixley Ltd to Bloomberg.
"This is just a temporary measure, but if we don't follow through with this,
there may be a situation when jewellers don't have any gold to sell. The
government and the Reserve Bank of India have already restricted gold
imports," said Vikas Chudasama, director general, All India Gems and
Jewellery Trade Federation to the Indian Express.
June imports of Gold have dipped to a paltry 28 tons when compared to 162
tons in May. Data says that imports of gold to Gujarat, a major consuming
centre, dipped to 3.73 tons in June against the 37.61 tons registered in May
as per the air cargo complex data.
Crude oil prices in the global market were seen trading up on hopes that US
Federal Reserve may keep pumping money into the economy. The Central Bank
chairman recently hinted that the bank would continue with its existing
Global crude oil supply fell by 0.3 mn barrels per day to 91.2 mn barrels per day
in June month-on-month basis on lower production, according to a release by
the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Global crude oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.2 mn barrel per day (mb/d) in
2014, following upwardly-revised growth of 930 kb/d in 2013. Unseasonably
cold weather in the OECD helped to raise the estimates for 2Q13 and full year
2013 by 645 kb/d and 215 kb/d, respectively.
Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 1.3 mn barrels per day in 2014,
higher than an upwardly revised 1.2 mn barrels per day for 2013.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations
Index are scheduled to be released at 07.25 PM IST on Friday.
In the United States, in the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally
adjusted initial claims was 360,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's
revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 351,750, an increase of
6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 345,750, according to the data
released by the Department of Labor on Thursday.
Also, the advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted,
totalled 384,829 in the week ending July 6, an increase of 49,778 from the previous
week. There were 442,192 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
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