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Fist 2008

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Fist 2008

  1. 7. <ul><li>“… outcomes for major weapon programs are not improving over the 6 years we have been issuing this report.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  2. 8. <ul><li>“ Flagship acqusitions continue to: </li></ul><ul><li>cost significantly more… </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  3. 9. <ul><li>“… take longer to produce … </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  4. 10. <ul><li>“… and deliver less than was promised.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  5. 16. $7B, 20 years, 0 Aircraft $3B, 8 years, 0 Aircraft $11B, 7 years, 0 artillery 20% overrun, 20 years
  6. 19. An unreasonably long acquisition cycle… is a central problem from which most other acquisition problems stem. - Packard Commission, 1986
  7. 20. <ul><li>“ A hallmark of an executable program with a sound business case is short development cycle times.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  8. 21. <ul><li>“ The DoD itself suggests that system development should be limited to about 5 years.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  9. 22. <ul><li>“ For 32 programs that started since 2001, only 11 even planned their development cycle times to be less than 5 years.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  10. 23. <ul><li>“ On average, the current portfolio of programs has experienced a 21-month delay in delivering IOC to the warfighter.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  11. 24. Average Cycle Times Packard Commission Air Force Navy 0 10 12 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Program Start to IOC (Years) Army Source: DSB Briefing, Dan Czelusniak, 12 June 1998 8 6 4 2 1999 Automobile Industry
  12. 25. PEM and SPO Surveys N=208 Superior Performance Low Acquisition Cost Low Operation Costs Shortened Schedule Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Axis: Number of Programs Responding
  13. 26. <ul><li>Parkinson’s Law </li></ul><ul><li>Work e-x-p-a-n-d-s </li></ul><ul><li>to fill the time allotted. </li></ul><ul><li>Ward’s Corollary </li></ul><ul><li>Work is compressible . </li></ul>
  14. 29. <ul><li>“… we have too much money… </li></ul><ul><li>this overfunding is limiting our ability to innovate …” </li></ul>
  15. 30. <ul><li>“ DoD’s planned investments for new weapon systems now reflect the highest funding levels in two decades.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  16. 31. <ul><li>“ During this same time period, acquisition outcomes did not improve…” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  17. 32. <ul><li>“ Total acquisition costs for FY07… increased 26% . </li></ul><ul><li>… whereas the 2000 portfolio increased by 6% .” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  18. 33. <ul><li>“ Total acquisition cost for the current portfolio of major programs… has grown by nearly $300B over initial estimates.” </li></ul><ul><li>2008 GAO Report </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment Of Selected Weapon Programs </li></ul>
  19. 37. Goodness Complexity Complexity Slope Complication Slope Simplification Slope TIME
  20. 38. Goodness Complexity Complexity Slope
  21. 39. Goodness Complexity Complication Slope
  22. 40. Goodness Complexity Simplification Slope
  23. 41. Goodness Complexity Simplistic Complexity Slope Complex Complication Slope Complicated Simplification Slope Simple TIME
  24. 42. Download the free PDF at Lulu.com
  25. 44. Goodness Complexity Simplification Slope
  26. 45. T I N Y Schedule Process Team Budget
  27. 47. “ If you look at the history of innovation, you’ll see one proven recipe for breakthroughs…”
  28. 48. <ul><li>Take a small, intensely focused team and impose an unreasonable timeframe on it. </li></ul><ul><li>- Alan Naumann, CEO & President Calico Commerce, Inc </li></ul>
  29. 49. fail n -> succeed m fail n succeed m
  30. 57. “ Courageous trust in the face of possible exploitation is the most ethically responsible and organizationally successful approach over the long term.”
  31. 59. http://www.lulu.com/content/2448437 [email_address]

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