Alexei Kapterev
alexei@kapterev.com
Decision-making
under radical
uncertainty

All of my best decisions
in business and in life
have been made with
heart, intuition,
guts... not analysis.
Je
ff
Bezos
CEO Amazon

What about his
worst decisions?

Intuitively Analytically
Best 23 0
Worst ? ?

Cognitive
biases

Decision styles
and outcomes:
Analytical Intuitive
r=+.11 r=–.09
Phillips et al (2015)

Risk Uncertainty
Quanti
fi
able Not quanti
fi
able

Phantastic
object
narrative

Uncertainty
Importance
Logic
Calculations
Narratives
Divination
Obvious
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic

Uncertainty
Importance
Logic
Calculations
Narratives
Divination
Obvious
Complicated
Complex
Chaotic

?
What might
individual narratives
about important
business decisions
reveal?

14
Senior managers
in IT, Biotech
and Fintech

Tell me about
an important
business decision
which already has
an outcome, either
satisfactory or not

Organisational structure
10 %
Private matters
16 %
Hiring, firing, promotion
23 % Business strategy
23 %
Investments
29 %

43
Cases in total,
29 — positive and
14 — negative

6 groups

0 | 2
Hurt feelings
Satisfied | Dissatisfied

We were so traumatised by the
previous experience [they had to
fi
re the whole sales department]
that we decided to outsource the
sales process this time.

My objections to the merger
weren’t taken into the account,
so I distanced myself from
the M&A process.

6 | 0
Probing
Satisfied | Dissatisfied

We were so scared by the previous
experience that we decided to
move really slowly with
transformation.

4 | 0
Consultative
Satisfied | Dissatisfied

At some point my therapist told
me: ‘This is your responsibility,
nobody else is going to accept
the responsibility.’

4 | 1
Analytical
Satisfied | Dissatisfied

I sat down and created a huge map
with lots of options. Gradually,
I eliminated most of them.

1 | 10
Idealisations
Satisfied | Dissatisfied

I thought this was the only
place in [country] where I can
really study graphic design.

I thought they were amazing guys. And
I still think they are great in their own
way but I would have never expected
this amount of irresponsibility and
incompetence.

15 | 0
Principled
Satisfied | Dissatisfied

Everybody abandoned this guy
[the startup founder] so surely
I must support him.

We won't become the [great]
organisation we want to become
with this [toxic] person on board.

Honesty is an asset.

Principled
Idealisations
Probing
Analysis
Consultative
Hurt feelings 2
1
10
4
4
6
1
15
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
👎
👍

What is the best way
to make strategic
business decisions
under uncertainty, is it
intuitive or rational?

Intuition

intuition
Moral

intuition
moral
Explicit

Defining the problem
Generating alternatives
Coming to a decision

Defining the problem
Identifying criteria
Generating alternatives
Coming to a decision

Is this a morally
good thing to do?

1. Don’t equate emotions with intuition, being a
hostage to your emotions is not a good idea
2. Enthusiasm feels great, more balanced pros
and cons create uncomfortable ambivalence
but ultimately lead to better decisions
3. Moral compass is not a way to predict the
future but morally virtuous decisions are
seldom regretted
4. Discovering one’s moral compass seems like
a reasonable thing to do
To conclude:

Do what you must,
come what may.
Balvdin IV
King of Jerusalem

alexei@kapterev.com
www.kapterev.com
Questions?