CCC to advise Govt to make decisionBased on previous advice, has there been a change?
Our workplan will answer these questions (and we have some emerging thoughts).Has anything changed in the science? Expectations for IPCC report and what we’ve heard from lead authors suggests it has generally firmed up with fairly minor changes – if anything we are more worried about the impacts, changes to measures of climate sensitivity are limited.Has anything changed in the international/EU picture? The UN has firmed up the 2 degree target and is moving (slowly) towards a deal for the 2020s. Unilaterally, action has continued to ramp up, including in US and China. Note that our original advice was after Copenhagen, so the low progress there was already reflected; we were also clear that an ideal global deal (consistent with an effective path to 2 degrees) would require more from the UK than in the legislated fourth budget. For EU, when we advised previously we didn’t know what would be agreed for the 2020s and we still don’t (and probably won’t until some way into next year at the earliest) – the budget matches to suggested trajectories in the EU Pathways work (40% reduction on 1990 for 2030), and is less ambitious than the UK’s negotiating position (up to 50% for 2030). Our April advice also demonstrates that any potential competitiveness issues are manageable.Has anything changed in terms of what would be cost-effective UK measures? External factors like recession mean that the budget will be easier to meet than previously. That would give flexibility to cover potential under-delivery in challenging areas, but could undermine confidence in continuing ambition.
To explore are people more comfortable with the budget/scenarios if there is now some clear headroom which would allow some further flexibility? or do people worry that too much flexibility means that govt won’t do anything, or at least can’t judge what they will do? is there a value to business from maintaining the budget at a given level even where we would set it lower if starting from blank page?
Out of 8m SWI homes, 2m in our 2020 scenario
UKCCC Presentation 2013
Meeting carbon budgets:
5th Progress Report to
Parliament, June 2013
CO2 emissions rose 3.5% in 2012 in the context of colder
winter weather and a gas-to-coal switch in power
generation. Small underlying emissions reduction
• Limited progress on solid wall insulation, low-carbon heat and energy
efficiency improvements in commercial and industrial sectors.
• Underlying emissions reductions not enough to meet the 3rd and 4th carbon
budgets – further Government action required to strengthen policies this
• Economy-wide emissions rose 3.5% – due to relatively cold winter months
compared to 2011 and switching from gas to coal in power generation.
• Good progress on some measures such as adding new wind generation,
insulating lofts and cavity walls, and improving the efficiency of new cars – but
challenges sustaining progress in future.
4th carbon budget
Wales Climate Change
19th September 2013
Context for the fourth carbon budget review (2023-27)
Govt proposal for setting the fourth carbon budget, Policy Statement, May 2011
The review: If, at that time , our domestic commitments place us on a
different emissions trajectory than the EU ETS trajectory agreed by the EU, we will,
as appropriate, revise up our budget to align it with the actual EU trajectory.
CCC advice, The Fourth Carbon Budget, December 2010
• 2050 80% target remains appropriate
• Should aim for a 60% reduction by 2030
• Legislate a fourth budget of 1950 MtCO2e
• Aim to deliver it through domestic (UK) action
• Be prepared to adjust the budget in the context of a
Process for the fourth budget review
The Climate Change Act (21 – alteration of carbon budgets)
[A carbon budget] may be amended...only if it appears to the Secretary of State that,
since the budget was originally set (or previously altered), there have been
significant changes affecting the basis on which the previous decision was made.
The Climate Change Act (8 & 10) - criteria
• Technology / economics
• Meeting the 2050 target
• Fuel poverty
• Energy supply
• Devolved circumstances
The Climate Change Act (22)
Before laying an order under section 21,
the Secretary of State must obtain, and
take into account, the advice of the
Committee on Climate Change
Given latest evidence, would a change in the budget better put the UK on the
cost-effective path to the 2050 target while managing the budget’s impacts,
international interactions and climate risks?
CCC workplan for the fourth budget review
• Competitiveness and carbon footprint report (April
• Review latest EU and UNFCCC positions/expectations;
compare to current 4th budget
• Ongoing recession
• Impact of shale gas
• Latest emissions projections
• Latest evidence on abatement potential
• Robustness to different assumptions
• Review of latest scientific understanding, notably IPCC
WG1 report in September 2013
• Modelling of emissions pathways and climate response
under various assumptions
Call for evidence (http://www.theccc.org.uk/call-for-evidence/)
Stakeholder workshops: Business, Scenarios, Science, International
Review will consider whether budget should be
loosened or tightened
Also: Should the budget be tightened to reflect headroom due to significantly
lower emissions projections? Does headroom imply uncertainty?
And: Would a change in the budget by definition increase uncertainty?
UEP = DECC’s Updated
Energy and Emissions
Govt: Should the budget be loosened to align to EU default trajectory?
Lots of efficiency (e.g. 3.5m SWIs)
25% heat from heat pumps
limited district heating
Decarbonise to 50 gCO2/kWh through:
Efficiency, Nuclear, Renewables, CCS
New cars @ 80 g/km
Electric vehicle penetration 60%
Some use of scarce bioenergy
Efficiency on farms
Divert waste from landfill
Possible behaviour change
A 2030 scenario that would meet the budget
Aim for this
bold = primarily for preparing for 2050
Questions for discussion
Does the scientific case for action remain and are we still
moving towards a carbon-constrained world?
Are the scenarios proposed by the CCC still feasible and
cost-effective on the path to the 2050 target?
How would a change in the UK budget affect:
• Attractiveness to low-carbon investors and business
• Competitiveness, affordability and the economy?
• Deliverability of Welsh programmes and targets?