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The Future of Publishing - The 2017 Edition

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Using the latest data and industry insights, The Future of Publishing - The 2017 Edition takes a look at where book publishing is headed circa fall, 2017.

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The Future of Publishing - The 2017 Edition

  1. 1. The Future of Publishing Fall 2017 Edition Thad McIlroy TheFutureofPublishing.com San Francisco & Vancouver Presented September, 2017
  2. 2. My Background  Book publisher, author, technologist  30+ years studying the impact of the digital trends on publishing  Writing for Learned Publishing and Publishing Research Quarterly  250 articles and 15 books on digital publishing
  3. 3. TheFutureofPublishing.com
  4. 4. Latest Publications
  5. 5. Goals 1. The landscape in stats 2. A look at mobile 3. Print’s pyrrhic victory against ebooks 4. Textbook declines 5. Amazonian realities 6. Mastering the supply chain
  6. 6. The Heart of the Matter If books are the horse and buggy of our times... What does the automobile look like?
  7. 7. Some Basic Stats
  8. 8. By Age Group
  9. 9. Population Shift
  10. 10. WE’RE ASSUMING A STABLE ECONOMY
  11. 11. Economic Forecast Source: Financial Times
  12. 12. MOBILE
  13. 13. 3 Hours/Day on Mobile! Source: comScore
  14. 14. Ten Apps Control 98% of Time Source: comScore
  15. 15. Facebook Mobile Users Source: Facebook
  16. 16. Plus Ça Change...
  17. 17. Print Resurgent!
  18. 18. Telling an Industry What it Wants to Hear
  19. 19. The Myth About Print Coming Back  It’s wishful thinking rather than an understanding of what’s actually happening. — Jane Friedman  Spooked by costly innovations that have not paid off in the past, they’re clinging to the idea that their core competency – print – will continue to save them. — Emma Nuttall
  20. 20. The Latest Data Misleads AAP, Q1 2017
  21. 21. Self-Publishing is Underreported Source: Data Guy, Author Earnibgs, February 2017
  22. 22. Author Earnings Reports February 2014-2017 Big 5
  23. 23. TEXTBOOKS
  24. 24. A Slow But Now Steady Decline Source: NACS Student Watch Attitudes & Behaviors Toward Course Materials 2016-17 Report *refactored for course duration
  25. 25. 23% Prefer Digital Source: NACS Student Watch Attitudes & Behaviors Toward Course Materials 2016-17 Report
  26. 26. Amazon & the Future  Limitless ambition (Whole Foods)  Decimating the competition  Both U.S. and internationally  Hard to read their bookshop ambitions  Your strategy: Amazon, then everyone else
  27. 27. Ecommerce Growth Continues
  28. 28. Amazon Margin Squeeze  Raise your prices: $22.95 or $24.95 or $27.95 are much the same  There’s more price elasticity than publishers realize  Particularly as Amazon will make the book seem cheaper than it is ($13.77-$14.97-$16.77)  Revisit costs and “zero-defect” workflows
  29. 29. Book Prices, 1998-2014 Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
  30. 30. Paper at Lowest $ Since 1999 Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
  31. 31. The Latest “Outrage” Source: The Bookseller, September 4, 2017
  32. 32. The Economics of POD  300-500-1000 minimum for offset  Not a “substitution” model, $10/copy vs. $4/copy  Supply chain efficiencies  End-of-life/long-tail decision
  33. 33. Reduce the Friction
  34. 34. Or More Accurately
  35. 35. Reduce Time to Market
  36. 36. Who is Your #1 Competitor? ?
  37. 37. Netflix Thinks of Competition If you think about your last 30 days... whether you played video games, surfed the web, watched a DVD or TV, wandered through YouTube, read a book, streamed or pirated content (hopefully not), you can see the market for relaxation time and disposable income is huge, and we are but a little boat in a vast sea. —Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, April 2016
  38. 38. Keep an Eye on Apple Source: Bloomberg
  39. 39. Bedside Reading  Becoming  Flowing  Screening  Accessing  Sharing  Filtering  Tracking  Questioning
  40. 40. Streaming  The subscription model failed because the Big 5 refused to support it, not because it was a bad idea  Amazon’s Kindle Unlimited (KU) is a roaring success  “In the universal library, no book will be an island. It’s all connected.” —Kevin Kelly
  41. 41. The Amazon Kindle Fund (KU) • $206 million paid in the last 12 months • Represents equivalent of over $2 billion in retail sales at MSP (15% of total)
  42. 42. Summary 1. Population aging and Hispanic growing 2. Getting a handle of mobile’s victory 3. Yes, print, but ebooks are still growing 4. Print textbook decline 5. Supply chain rationalization 6. Understand the real competition 7. Cherish the book!
  43. 43. Technology is a Process Not an Event
  44. 44. Thank You! Thad McIlroy The Future of Publishing thad@thefutureofpublishing.com

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