Strelecky how foresight_can_be_beneficial_249

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Strelecky how foresight_can_be_beneficial_249

  1. 1. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Introduction to foresight and innovationmanagement in companies - how foresight can be beneficialUNIDO 1
  2. 2. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia New trends in the world economyGlobalisation and changes in company structureLarge companies have new possibilities, new markets morefreedom to do the businessLiberalisation is leading to the more intensive flow of capital andlarge corporations make use of new conditionsLarge corporations are creating regional and local networks of co-operating companies, mainly small and medium sized onesNetworks are created by suppliers, who are providing to largecorporations flexibility in the accomodation to the regional demandLarge multinational corporations are bringing into the relation withSME´s new quality standards, creating new presure to decreasecosts and high expactations concerning product and serviceimprovementsUNIDO 2
  3. 3. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia New trends in the world economyFor small and medium sized companies it means higher pressure tofulfil expactations of large companies (MNC) and the driving forcefor them is to penetrate to networks with new innovative productsand services, which could be achieved by technology innovation,management innovationAdvantage for these companies is the enlargement of marketsusing the distrubution channels of MNCsInteresting paradox: in EU 15, SME´s bring more innovation tobusiness as MNCs, in EU 10 are MNCs the main suppliers of newinnovative ideas and productsThe main reason: – Missing innovation culture – Not existing efficient NIS (national innovation system)UNIDO 3
  4. 4. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia New trends in the world economyDifference between innovation content: – In EU 15 is a higher portion of : • In-house innovation (30% EU average, Slovakia 10%) – Innovation based on outputs from direct R&D (EU – 3%, Slovakia –less as 1%) • 5% of innovations were based on information sources from universities and R&D institutions, patents were sources for 3% of innovations in production companies, and 1% in service companies. – In EU 10 is innovation based on horisontal technology trasfer, less verticalUNIDO 4
  5. 5. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Technology transfer schemes Horisontal transfer BasicVertical transfer application application application application 4.Development 3.Applied research 2.Strategic research 1.Basic research UNIDO 5
  6. 6. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Push – pull effectPush – pull effectIn the most developed countries the prevailing direction is „pulleffect“ based on the real market demandIn the less developed countries there is no market demand andR&D institutions outputs are not needed,The pull market effect is replaced by institutional state/publicpressure on R&D institutions (universities, academies of sciences)to place inventions into businessesUNIDO 6
  7. 7. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Innovation performance in EU Európsky inovačný scoreboard 2008UNIDO 7
  8. 8. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Message 1Level of innovation in small and mediumsized companies is low and not appropriateto the needs of their competitivness.UNIDO 8
  9. 9. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Missing transfer from R&DThe main reason of this incongruity is based on: – cultural attitude inherited from the period of centrally planned economy when „ R&D activities were not worse any interest“ – Other reason is the orientation of R&D institutions, where the content of research is missing the need of companies based on the demand of market. The research topics are selected very often on the previous conservative abilities of R&D institutions and not on the basis of future needs of companies. Foresight is missing. Enterprises, especially micro and small, are solving more existing and existence problems and they lack future orientation.Future view.UNIDO 9
  10. 10. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Message 2Foresight is missing for the better definitionof R&D activities and for the more efficientand intensive flow of outputs to companiesUNIDO 10
  11. 11. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia InnovationInnovation is ever more important in today’sincreasingly global, increasingly knowledge-basedeconomy. Competitiveness depends, to a far largerextent today than in the past, on the ability ofmanufacturing and service sectors to meet fast-changing market needs quickly and efficientlythrough the application of new technology.(B U I L D I N G A N I N N O V A T I V E E C O N O M Y I N E U R O P E)UNIDO 11
  12. 12. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia InnovationInnovation is pervasive and diverse. It does –and should – take place in firms of all size, inevery region and in every sector, not just in‘naturally innovative’ high-tech sectors such asbiotechnology and information technology.UNIDO 12
  13. 13. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia InnovationInnovation is unevenly distributed.The innovation performance of Member States,and of different regions within individual MemberStates, varies very widely.UNIDO 13
  14. 14. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia InnovationInnovative products (recently introduced orimproved) account for fully one-third of allEuropean manufacturing sales – but this meansthat the great majority of Europe’s industrialturnover derives from products which haveremained unchanged for at least three years.UNIDO 14
  15. 15. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Message 3Innovation of products and services is slowUNIDO 15
  16. 16. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia SMEs„Mass production“ production is being replaced by „fllexibility economy“, where life cycles of products and services are continually decreasing and more small and medium sized companies are involved in the process and they are providing to the whole economy requested flexibility.The number of small companies has been growing and it exceeds 99% of all companies as a consequence of these trends. UNIDO 16
  17. 17. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia SME´sThe European average of number of company´s employees is 7.It means that the European economy – employment, growth and stability depends on small companies.The number of small companies which become extinct is high, the employment changes are also high, but the adaption to the economic deviations (market instability, credit crunch,..) is quicker, less complicated and more efficient as it is at MNCs. UNIDO 17
  18. 18. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia SME´s and business planningSME´s are behaving in a different way. The bigger company, the higher sophistication of management.More rules, more standards, more defined relations. Division of tasks and responsibilities is clearly defined.Only 5% of „micro“ companies have a business plan.Less than 20% small companies (50 employees or less ) work with business plan.Majority of them have plans for short-term (1 year), very small portion describes medium-term objectives and long-term planning occurs very rarely.In UK only 10% of companies (medium sized and large)are using foresight exercises for future planning. UNIDO 18
  19. 19. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia SME´s and large companiesManagementsophisticationBureucracy Small large company UNIDO 19
  20. 20. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Message 4Small companies concentrate their management effort more to the operative issues and less to the future. UNIDO 20
  21. 21. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia How to continueRole of advisors, consultants and stakeholders isto convince companies to focus more to: - Innovation - Foresight.UNIDO 21
  22. 22. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Why?Why to innovate, why to do a foresight exercise?Two case studies:Regional development – why innovation andforesightMr.Bielik – succesful plagiarist?UNIDO 22
  23. 23. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Definition of corporate foresight (Jemala,2009)Corporate foresight is an action-oriented systematic process that should integrate all types of foresight (research, technology, competitive, consumers´ foresight) at the corporate level. This process is not only about the study of the past or current plans and future predictions within a company. These are only related processes that can help to integrate strategic business processes through consecutive systematic actions in different areas. But these systematic efforts must create anticipative intelligence and functional networks that will enable a company to benefit from the future. UNIDO 23
  24. 24. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Possibilities for SME´sThere are no unified procedures of foresight and the mix of usedtechniques differ in relation to:- objectives of the foresight exercise,- stakeholders,- participants,- sectors and- financial coverage.Due to the complexity foresight studies require substantial sourceof financial means, which can not be covered by SME´s themselves.Solution: - governmental studies, activities of industrialassociations, chambers of commerce – technology platformsThe foresight is a rather complex approach and for SME´s it isdifficult to participate – missing qualified human sources.UNIDO 24
  25. 25. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Foresight techniquesSWOT, Benchmarking, Data analysis,Bibliometrical analysis, Process analysis,Environmental scanning, Cross-impact analyses,...... Analysis and scanning... Workshops,Expert panels... Understanding..., Brainstorming,Brainwriting, Delphi, Key technologies, Modelling,Wild card, Surveys,..... Anticipation...,Roadmapping, Scenarios, Simulations,Backcasting....PlanningUNIDO 25
  26. 26. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, SlovakiaDecrease of price, create conditions for the participation For the utilisation of foresight techniques by SME´s is important : - to simplify the whole process of foresight - to provide companies a transparent user friedly manual. - networking - some companies are networking, creating partnerships to enable execution of a foresight study - to educate, train management of companies (selection of appropriate techniques is the key task of foresight exercise) - governmental programs have to encourage SME´s in the participation in national foresight activities (and to get response from wider circle of businesses).UNIDO 26
  27. 27. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia What is foresight?The role of foresight is to create a vision of future, aparticipative picture of possible scenarios, which could beinfluenced by actions of today.Foresight has social features and is not only a mathematicalsolution.What differs foresight from other forecasting methods?It is a structured anticipatory dialog ....UNIDO 27
  28. 28. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Outputs of foresight exercises:Political recommendations (user are national and regional authorities)Identification of trends (national authorities, corporations)Scenarios (national authorities,regional authorities, corporations )R&D priorities (national authorities, corporations)Key technologies (professional associations, corporations)Prognosis (national authorities,regional authorities, corporations)Roadmapps (national authorities,regional authorities, corporations).UNIDO 28
  29. 29. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Why to participate in foresight (1)Corporations, MNC´s: To anticipate trends in sectors, industry, society (even they are not trends yet) To accomodate business goals to the real possibilities of corporation To be prepared for the changes in market, to increase imunity of company against market failures To prepare proper strategy for companies To identify need of new processes, technologies (technology foresight), products (production companies are very sensitive to new developments) To find wider social relations in doing business To identify the proper field for R&D To avoid or to decrease the future possible risk, avoid critical situation UNIDO 29
  30. 30. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Why to participate in foresight (2)Corporations, MNC´s: To improve the decision making process of corporations To create conditions for better and easier selection and set up of company priorities, objectives, strategies and investments Many corporations are aware that the technological and R&D push must meet environmental, social and market pull. This „equiation“ works only in a long-term platform Foresight is participative and corporations get back a feed back from a bigger sample. Debates, brainstorming sessions provide many useful outputs Foresight has a multidimensional feature and it detects cross impacts of more variables, so it gives more comprehensive and possible picture about future Examples: IBM, Nestlé, Simens, NASA, Motorola (R.Galvin – Six Sigma, roadmapping, In the early 1990s, U.S. semiconductor competitors decided to work together to solve some of the more basic, confounding, but precompetitive, technical barriers whose impact was a concern to our companies over a 15-year time horizon.) UNIDO 30
  31. 31. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Why to participate in foresightSmall and medium sized companies: To anticipate trends in sectors, industry, society To analyze the development of key technologies To be prepared for the changes in market To prepare proper strategy for companies To identify need of new technologies, processes, products To find wider social relations in doing business To avoid or to decrease the future possible risk To overcome the influx of information about future development To create conditions for better and easier selection and set up of company priorities, objectives, strategies and investments Due to the participative feature of foresight, SME gets a broader view on future (convince them, that they need future perspective not only, data of tommorrow) UNIDO 31
  32. 32. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Case studyEstablishment of a business centre in 1996.- 1995: long term lease of a building in ruins for 30 years- 1995: start of creation of a future picture of utilisation of the building 2005, 2015, 2025 – several scenarios of future services- 1995: brainstorming sessions – involvement stakeholders, architects- 1995: selection of scenario- 1995: start of reconstruction- 1996: marketing plans development and roadmapping- 1996: first clients- 1998: first survey focused to- 1998: second stage of foresight exercise- 1999: second building lease UNIDO 32
  33. 33. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, Slovakia Case study- 2001: start of reconstruction and first clients- 2003: third foresight exercise, new services (training room, pub)- 2005 - 8: new facilities- 2009: third foresight exercise – new conditions - how to handle with crisis UNIDO 33
  34. 34. 2008/9 Technology Foresight Training Programme Module 4: Technology Foresight for Corporations 27 – 30 October 2009, Bratislava, SlovakiaJán StreleckýBIC Group, s.r.o.Zochova 5811 03 Bratislava 1strelecky@bicba.sk UNIDO 34

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