3/21/11	  Foresight ToolsPerspective, Opportunity, Solution June	  29,	  2010	   Prepared	  for	  Professor	  Stephen	  Kw...
3/21/11	                    Foresight Tools Focused on Action© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton    For Teaching Purposes O...
3/21/11	                  Future Planning Must Embrace Ambiguity                                  High                    ...
3/21/11	                                  Phase II: Opportunity           Perspective                   Opportunity       ...
3/21/11	                                        Nine Tools to Integrate                                                   ...
3/21/11	          Perspective                            Opportunity                          Solution The first phase is ...
3/21/11	                                  Progression CurvesProgression Curves are a graphical representation to explain t...
3/21/11	                                        Phase II: Opportunity        Perspective                            Opport...
3/21/11	                                        DemographicsDemographics is a research method to identify and track popula...
3/21/11	                                           FuturetellingFuturetelling are short and dramatic performances that ill...
3/21/11	          Perspective                            Opportunity                                Solution The third pha...
3/21/11	                                        Change PathsChange Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring dif...
3/21/11	                                         The Dark HorseA Dark Horse is a design method to prototype and communicat...
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Stanford foresight tools

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Stanford foresight tools

  1. 1. 3/21/11  Foresight ToolsPerspective, Opportunity, Solution June  29,  2010   Prepared  for  Professor  Stephen  Kwan,  San  José  State  University   By  Tamara  Carleton  and  William  Cockayne   Benefits of The Foresight Approach o  Puts long-term strategies into action today, overcoming the gap between big idea and execution o  Supports a collaborative, team-based approach that fosters internal alignment and buy-in from the beginning o  Helps build internal competencies by teaching multiple tools that can be integrated into your business strategy and daily work immediately after the workshop o  Enables more effective decision-making processes to meet your strategy challenges in the future © 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 2 1  
  2. 2. 3/21/11   Foresight Tools Focused on Action© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 3 Three Phases to Build Foresight Perspective Opportunity Solution© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 4 2  
  3. 3. 3/21/11   Future Planning Must Embrace Ambiguity High Ambiguity© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 5 Phase I: Perspective Perspective Opportunity SolutionThe first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area ofinterest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look backfirst in order to look forward.o  What is the bigger context for the topic you are interested in?o  What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be identified as drivers of todays reality?o  When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in timing and adoption exist today?© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 6 3  
  4. 4. 3/21/11   Phase II: Opportunity Perspective Opportunity SolutionThis phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities thatexist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities becometomorrow’s innovations.o  What themes are emerging that might shape or influence possible opportunities in the future?o  Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements and generational shifts, can we identify and understand that affect future changes?o  What might you expect from future users and customers?© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 7 Phase III: Solution Perspective Opportunity SolutionThe third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along differentpaths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry,customers, organization, and individual skills.o  How can you determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to tomorrows future innovation?o  Looking at what youve learned, how long does each step take along the various paths?o  What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in your control?© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 8 4  
  5. 5. 3/21/11   Nine Tools to Integrate Illustrative© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 9 Phase I: Perspective 5  
  6. 6. 3/21/11   Perspective Opportunity Solution The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward. Context Maps Progression Curves Janus Cones Context Mapping is a mapping Progression Curves are a Janus Cones is a foresight tool technique for capturing emergent graphical representation that for looking backwards and conversation themes in complex explains the progression of forwards in time to identify the problems to show integrated changes in terms of timing of historical events and context. technological, social, and related how timing affects potential filters. future events.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 11 Context MapContext Mapping is a mapping technique for capturingemergent conversation themes in complex problems toshow integrated context.© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 12 6  
  7. 7. 3/21/11   Progression CurvesProgression Curves are a graphical representation to explain theprogression of changes in terms of technological, social, and relatedfilters.© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 13 Janus ConesJanus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards intime to identify the timing of historical events and how these timingsaffect potential future events.© 2010 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 14 7  
  8. 8. 3/21/11   Phase II: Opportunity Perspective Opportunity Solution The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s innovations. Demographics Future Users Futuretelling Demographics is a research method Future Users explores the potential Futuretelling are short and to identify and track population future of a chosen demographic dramatic performances that changes within a specific group over through the comparative analysis illustrate a particular user need time in order to understand between similar groups over time. as a scene from the future. impending changes on the This is active storytelling at its workforce, life stages, future best. markets, and other variables.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 16 8  
  9. 9. 3/21/11   DemographicsDemographics is a research method to identify and track population growthwithin a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes onthe workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 17 Future UsersFuture Users is an analytical method that explores the potential futureof a chosen demographic through the comparison of changes betweenand over time to similar groups. Past Today Tomorrow© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 18 9  
  10. 10. 3/21/11   FuturetellingFuturetelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate aparticular population need or possible scene from the future.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 19 Phase III: Solution 10  
  11. 11. 3/21/11   Perspective Opportunity Solution The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills. White Spots Change Paths Paper Mockups White Spots are a strategic tool for Change Paths are a set of data- Paper mockups in three- studying the future opportunity space driven narratives exploring different dimensions (3D) are an defined by two salient issues. paths and key decision points advanced design method to Opportunities can be discovered in toward possible future innovations. prototype and communicate a the ‘white spots’, or empty areas. new concept using paper and inexpensive materials. A specific iteration is the Dark Horse Prototype.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 21 White SpotsWhite Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunityspace defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered inthe ‘white spots’, or empty areas.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 22 11  
  12. 12. 3/21/11   Change PathsChange Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring differentpaths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 23 Paper MockupsPaper mockups in three-dimensional (3D) are a design method toprototype and communicate a new concept using paper andinexpensive materials.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 24 12  
  13. 13. 3/21/11   The Dark HorseA Dark Horse is a design method to prototype and communicate aconcept that is considered high risk and/or least likely to succeed.© 2010 | W Cockayne and T Carleton For Teaching Purposes Only 25 Center for Foresight and Innovation Stanford University http://foresight.stanford.edu 13  

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