2007 ten year-forecast


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2007 ten year-forecast

  1. 1. 2007 ten-year forecast: Perspectives Executive SummaryThe future is a passage throughworlds we’ve yet to imagineHuman transitions are accomplished through passages—whetherculturally sanctioned personal rites of passage or huge migrationsthat, only in retrospect, can be seen as movements from one wayof life to another. These passages are often stormy, frightening,chaotic. They call on previously untapped human abilities, bothpersonal and cultural, to navigate through worlds that appear tobe disintegrating, hopefully to put the pieces back together in anew configuration, a new kind of living.We suspect that, like migrants, we humans are all beginning a longtrek through strange territories we have only rumors of. The rumorscome in many forms from many sources, some more reliable thanothers. While science-fiction images of cyborg cultures and long-standing tales of apocalypse seep into our imaginations—and evenlead us down particular roads—more measured forecasts help usput together the intelligence we need to make rational, if also unex-pectedly innovative, choices at each step.This year, the Ten-Year Forecast presents ten new Perspectives.They can help us begin to imagine the worlds we will passthrough in the coming decades, as well as the world we willcreate through that passage. But perhaps more important, wepoint to some fundamental shifts in the imaginative tools wewill need to get there.
  2. 2. Economics: Ecoscience in the Marketplace A longer viewIn the face of a deteriorating natural environment, how willdevelopments in ecoscience, marketplace innovations, and A longer view is clearly needed as so manythe political sphere interact over the next decades to change slow but huge waves of fundamental changethe way we manage the environment and market products begin to present themselves for our consider-and services? Nine experts helped us build a map of thenext 50 years—and think through the implications of carbon, ation. Climate change, the decline of the carbonwater, and air quality markets. fuel economy, the growth of a pervasive culture —Alex Pang, Kathi Vian, Jamais Cascio & Matt Chwierut of urban slums, and the prospects for bioengi- neering on the scale of an industrial revolution all have their roots in the present and their most disruptive consequences in the very long term. To collectively sift through those consequencesDemographics: Extreme Longevity and make choices today that will sustain theEven as the global population appears to be tilting stronglytoward the aged, will life-extension technologies and new world through this century and beyond, we willcultural patterns keep people forever young? In a conversa- need collaborative tools and cooperative strate-tion with Aubrey de Grey and Nick Bostrom, we explore gies that can engage an entire planet. We willthe real potential for longer lifespans and a population that isactually getting younger, not older. need techniques to filter the massive and grow- —Jamais Cascio ing amounts of present-day data to see the patterns of the future. We will need economies and communities with feedback mechanisms to bring us into alignment with these impending futures. We may even find ourselves bioengi-Politics: Participatory Panopticon neering the very way we think about the future.As camera phones, webcams, and other mobile network devicesbecome increasingly commonplace, will privacy and even secrecybecome things of the past? David Brin adds his perspective on An ecological wayreciprocal accountability to our own forecast about the ways inwhich so-called life caching—capturing the daily details of one’s of thinkinglife electronically—will change the way we age, the way we think,and the way we manage the people who manage us. If time is one dimension of our imaginative —Jamais Cascio toolkit, complexity is another, and to operate in the complexity of global human society, we will slowly adopt a more ecological way of thinking. Drawing on the last 30 or so years of ecological science and complexity theory, we will begin toCulture: Digital Natives, Civic Spaces see the world through an increasingly multifac-With the explosion of youth media, what can we expect froma generation of Digital Natives as they enter the civic sphere eted lens. Our networking intelligence will beginwith new abilities to deconstruct media messages and offer to reveal connections we could not have antici-up their own critique? Henry Jenkins and Howard Rheingold pated, and our growing literacy in networkingconsider the potential for a new civic literacy as we share ourown survey results for three new indexes on smart networking, tools will usher in new processes—intellectual,collective behavior, and a literacy of the commons. economic, and civic—for distributed seeing and —Howard Rheingold describing, deciding, and acting. Externalities will slowly disappear from our economic mod- els, and the language of econometrics, from price per gallon to gross domestic product, may become but an embedded function inManufacturing: Do-It-Yourself? more compelling ecological models. ThoseAs 3D printers become more capable and less expensive,will they expand beyond the realm of design prototyping models, in turn, may prove to be emergentto transform the practice of manufacturing and perhaps frameworks that can be viewed and tuned buteven drive some kinds of production into the home? not invented by humans.Bruce Sterling and David Pescovitz trade viewpoints on do-it-yourself futures as we share our new Do-It-Yourself Index. —Jamais Cascio & Alex Soojung-Kim Pang
  3. 3. détente with dilemma Finance: Intangible Reforms Confronted with growing environmental uncertainty andFinally, we will need to reach some kind of heightened social risk, will the financial community find newdétente with dilemma. Well-schooled in solving kinds of instruments—building on new kinds of measures—toproblems, we will need to re-school ourselves mitigate the risks? Jed Emerson shares his views on blended value, as we look at the prospects for a growing sophisticationin the art of acting intelligently (and perhaps in managing multiple capitals: financial, intellectual, natural,also compassionately) in situations that have and social.no solution. We will have to find tools and —Jessica Margolinprocesses for teasing out the first-, second-,and third-order dilemmas in these situations;for reconciling multiple stakeholders; and fordesigning processes that generate new value Asia: Chinese Consumer Collectivesout of apparent conflicts of interest. A world Given a history of collectivism, will the emerging Chinesewith no externalities is a world where dilemma practice of consumer collectives transform the retail marketsis the name of the game, and how well we learn of China—and perhaps spread to the West as well? Sam Flemming reflects on the use of bulletin board systemsthis lesson will have much to do with our (BBS) for consumer coordination in China, as we look at howindividual and collective success over the the Internet is supporting the spread of consumer collectivesnext decade. to all parts of China. —Lyn JefferyWe hope that, embedded in this year’sTen-Year Forecast, you find some of theinsights, frameworks, tools, and processes that Communities: Citizens of Sustainabilitywill help you cultivate and apply these new As people increasingly draw the link between their personalways of thinking about the future. At the core health and the well-being of the community, will we moveof each of these thinking tools is the ability beyond so-called “green consumers” to an emerging classto draw connections. So we not only present of “sustainability citizens” with a powerful local focus? Wal-Mart’s Monica Mullins helps us understand how a globala summary of the Perspectives here; we also company can drive sustainability values and address localtake the first step toward connecting the dots needs while we report on our Citizens of Sustainability Index.between them and then drawing the implications —Kathi Vian & Mani Pandeat the important intersections. Education: Open Economy Makeover Facing growing criticism from all sides, will public K–12 education now confront the additional disruption of open-economy practices, and will that disruption eventually pave the way for new strate- gies to the complex social dilemmas that plague the institution? Our Open Economy Toolkit provides a framework for us to think through how network structures, self-organizing groups, and coop- erative practices may recast the future of public education. —Andrea Saveri Science: The Next Revolution? As fundamental uncertainty begins to pervade the world of science, will we find that our technologies have outpaced our ability to understand the kinds of changes they are wreak- ing? Jerry Ravetz explains what he sees as an era of post- normal science as we explore the impacts of evolutionary design, complexity theory, exabytes of information, and the failure of grand theories on the future of science. —Alex Soojung-Kim Pang
  4. 4. CONNECTIONS New Rul es for a New Generation ● Participatory Panopticon ● Digital Natives ● Citizens of Sustainability Digital Natives are stepping into a world where distributed, networked tools of communication and awareness are commonplace, and where large-scale environmental challenges have the potential to become the most significant issue of the century. This cohort has a very different attitude toward both of these issues than do most members of earlier generations. As Digital Natives take on greater economic and politi- cal responsibility, rules concerning topics such as privacy, anonymity, and participation are likely to change in significant ways. A generation accustomed to casual online visibility and deeply aware of the growing Collaborative Evolu tion climate threat is likely to embrace public accountability ● Participatory Panopticon ● Extreme Longevity ● Ecoscience regarding environmental behavior: emissions quotas, carbon footprint records, and One key value of networked collaboration is the ability to work closely other measures that could easilywith people thousands of miles away. One form of this collaboration can seem like invasions of privacy to be mutual monitoring and evaluation of health and environmental con- earlier generations. ditions, with members of a network team serving as trusted advisors, offering feedback on choices and results. Local experiences, aggregat-ed across different locations, provide rich data sources, and as collabo- rators work together for extended periods (increasingly common in an era of radical longevity), mutual understanding and trust deepen. The technologies of the participatory panopticon become tools for collaborative well-being, not just collaborative politics. “I nstruc table” Health ● Extreme Longevity ● Open Economy Education ● Manufacturing The DIY (do it yourself) philosophy—a cornerstone of the emerging manufacturing and design world—is also starting to take root in the arena of health. Today, collaborative Web sites provide real-time dietary advice, the history of individual food items (via barcodes scanned by camera phone), and even information on local biohazards. As these per- vasive just-in-time learning systems proliferate, interested The Gree n Panopticon individuals will have access to myriad details regard- ing what’s affecting their health, and how to change ● Citizens of Sustainability ● Ecoscience it. Combine this with open-source DIY biotech, and ● Participatory Panopticon we have the makings of a revolution in personal health care. Big question: will Broadband wireless networks, cheap and powerful sensors, and this be in cooperation with established a growing public awareness of the need for better and timelier health institutions, or in opposition? environmental information can combine for ecological sousveillance: an “inconvenient truth” panopticon, using an explosion of personal mobiledevices for measuring, monitoring, and understanding a rapidly changing environment. Such tools could be passive, such as sensors that upload data whenever a network-connected device (such as a mobile phone)comes near, or could be active, such as tools that give citizens a means of tagging sources of environmental damage (or examples of environmental solutions). These tools are particularly well-suited for Digital Natives, putting student collabo- ration at the cutting edge of global ecological research.
  5. 5. Ve ry Long-T erm I nvest me nts● Extreme Longevity ● Intangible Reforms● Citizens of SustainabilityHow much of our view of time horizons is based on how long we haveto live? One of the more important initial changes arising out of revolutionin biogerontology may be a fundamental shift in how we understand risk.Unlike most of the social and political effects of extreme longevity, which Simulation L iteracywouldn’t see full expression for decades, our appreciation of risk and ● Ecoscience ● Open Economy Education ● Science Revolutionopportunity could easily start changing almost immediately. We would bemore likely to see decisions with costs incurred decades later in more More powerful computers and emerging scientific models have pushedpersonal terms—and choices with short near-term costs as taking a less simulation to the forefront of tools for understanding the world. While significant part of our lives. While in principle this could lead to a this is most visible with climate science, simulations have taken on real greater sense of responsibility, it could also lead importance in subjects from epidemiology to industrial design; much of to a “I have plenty of time” culture of reduced the planning for pandemic outbreaks, for example, now relies on simu- motivation for action. lations. These tools are increasingly able to deal with complex environ- ments and provide insights into the more subtle workings of emergent systems, including collaborative economies. As powerful simulations move from supercomputers to laptops and from government labs to public schools, awareness of how simulations can be used—and abused—is becoming a critical skill.Valu es- Based Collec tive Buying● Chinese Consumer Collectives ● Intangible Reforms● Citizens of Sustainability Waste as an AssetThe economies of coordination that we noted in last year’s ● Manufacturing ● Ecoscience ● Citizens of SustainabilityTen-Year Forecast will show up in the Internet-enabled consumercollectives of China in all kinds of settings, from rural villages to One of the key insights of modern environmentalism is that waste—human resources in big companies. At the same time, U.S. citizens of whether we mean waste material or waste energy—is a sign of inef-sustainability are finding their own basis for contributing to their local ficiency. One way to reduce that inefficiency is to reduce the amount ofcommunities and building new kinds of commons. As consumer waste generated by a process; another way is to use that waste as acollectives spread globally—they almost certainly will—and as people component in another process. As we move into a world that embraceseverywhere turn their attention to the escalating risks in the environment both sustainability and new technologies of manufacturing, wasteand society at large, it is likely that they will begin to form buying coali- products that once would be shipped off to a landfill willtions around shared values. Not only could these new coalitions change increasingly be looked at as base material for newthe face of retail, but they will also almost certainly change the way generations of production. Further, as the cost ofcompanies manage their multiple capitals, including natural resources, raw materials for production rises to account forsocial networks, and intellectual property. This new literacy of multiple energy and greenhouse gas footprints, landfillscapitals will, in turn, filter down to individuals, reinforcing the values- may be re-imagined as a resource commons.based buying patterns in a possibly virtuous cycle of wealth generationfrom new social, environmental, and intellectual practices.
  6. 6. 2007 Ten-Year Forecast ToolkitIn addition to the ten Perspectives in this year’sTen-Year Forecast, the following tools are designed tohelp you leverage the forecasts in your own organizationalplanning and strategic forecasting efforts.2007 Map of the DecadeMethodology: The Open Economy ToolkitData: 2006 Ten-Year Forecast Signals SurveyPractice: Get There EarlyHuman–Future Interaction: The 2007 VideosThe Ten-Year Forecast TeamKathi Vian: Program DirectorJamais Cascio: Guest EditorMaureen Davis: Managing Editor & Client RelationsStephanie Schachter: Program ManagerMatt Chwierut: Research EditorLyn Jeffery: China & Ethnographic StudiesMani Pande: Statistics & Global StudiesAlex Soojung-Kim Pang: Science & TechnologyAndrea Saveri: Cooperative Studies & Youth ForesightJason Tester & Jane McGonigal: Immersive FuturesHoward Rheingold, Jessica Margolin &Jerry Michalski: Research AffiliatesJean Hagan: Creative Direction & Design 124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor Palo Alto, CA 94301Robin Bogott, Karin Lubeck & Robin Weiss: Design & Layout t 650.854.6322 f 650.854.7850Sean Ness: Business Development www.iftf.orgWith special thanks toMarina Gorbis, Bob Johansen & Dale Eldredgefor their support.For more information about the Ten-Year Forecast Program,contact Maureen Davis (mdavis@iftf.org).SR-1064© 2007 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarksare the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited withoutwritten permission.
  7. 7. Source: flickr.com/photos/josefstuefer/54676138/ details Essays Source: flickr.com/photos/idansimpson/104946216/ economics: GLOSSARY ECOSCIENCE IN THE MARKETPLACE parts per million (PPM): a measure Conservation Reserve Program renewables portfolio standard of environmental pollutants. Prior to (CRP): a voluntary program through (RPS): a flexible, market-driven policy Science and commerce have long been intertwined. From the 17th century, when Isaac Newton was pioneering mathematics the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric which agricultural landowners can to ensure that a minimum amount of carbon levels are estimated to have receive annual rental payments and renewable energy is included in the and physics while serving as Master of the Mint, to today, when academics-turned-entrepreneurs are familiar figures in high- been about 280 ppm; the current level cost-share assistance to establish portfolio of utilities. tech regions, science has been a resource and influence on economies and industry. Conversely, economics has also shaped is around 380 ppm. long-term, resource-conserving Measurements of Ecosystem Services: biomass: the total living biological covers on eligible farmland. renewable fuel standard (RFS): a standard established by the Energy scientific inquiry into everything from botany to neuropsychology. Over the next decade, efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and preserve essential ecosystems will create a bond between scientific research on climate and ecology, and efforts to build The Science of Carbon Trading: material in a given area or of a biological continuous emission monitoring Policy Act of 2005 for fuel companies to The Market for Local Values community or group. Usually measured by weight, or by dry weight, per square meter or square kilometer. systems (CEMS): systems composed of gas analyzers, gas sampling systems, temperature, and include renewable fuels in their output. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative carbon-trading markets, measure the value of ecosystem services, and estimate the economic cost of global warming. A Focus on Global Values (RGGI): an effort by Northeast and flow and opacity monitors. Usually California Climate Action Registry Mid-Atlantic states to reduce power- used to demonstrate regulatory (CCAR): a nonprofit voluntary registry plant greenhouse gas emissions compliance of various industrial for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through a cap-and-trade program. sources of air pollutants. that helps businesses, nonprofit orga- socially responsible investing (SRI): MARKETS AND SERVICES: GLOBAL VS. LOCAL: nizations, municipalities, state agen- corporate social responsibility THE SHAPE OF BUSINESS TO COME FINDING THE RIGHT FOCUS the application of CSR to investment. cies, and other entities establish GHG (CSR): a movement based on the ideaNo one can deny that humans have always drawn value both from Nature’s products and from natural services. Despite Socially responsible investors com- For the next decade, efforts to understand and Within a few years, these two branches of Climate scientists and ecologists will play a precisely measure emissions reductions gener- emissions baselines against which that companies should promote pub-the fact that these services help sustain life—clean water and air aren’t luxuries but the most fundamental of necessities— bine motivations to maximize profits manage climate change will be at the top of the research—measures of ecosystem offsets and val- future emission reduction require- lic, environmental, and social interests key role in measuring and marketing carbon ated by forests, soil, and other natural sinks—we’ve been able to take these services for granted. Today, though, just as human activity is altering the planet’s climate, so and the social good. agenda. More companies and governments (partic- uation of ecosystem services—are likely to begin ments may be applied. as well as profits, and in the long term emissions and sequestration. Just as scientists helping scientists model how long those sinkscan large industrial projects, development, and growing populations undermine an ecosystem’s ability to provide humans can “do well by doing good.” triple bottom line: a method by ularly European governments, but also a number of to overlap, as climate change models become carbon credit trading: the trading developed standard weights and measures to will operate. Initially, various sensor networkswith the services critical for life. Scientists are thus starting to develop tools to measure those services and predict the which companies evaluate their American states) have recognized that they need to more granular and ecosystem services models of permits to emit carbon dioxide. environmental goods and services smooth the flows of commerce in the 19th are likely to develop using their own metadataimpact of development and population growth on them. operations not just on the standard act more strenuously to reduce energy consumption become more comprehensive and larger in scale. Pollution markets (also called cap- (EGS): natural processes and century and contributed to the growth of schemes and storage standards, but eventually “bottom-line” of profit, but also on and carbon emissions. Markets for personal carbon Work on greenhouse gas sequestration may even-In a recent article, Stanford ecologist Gretchen Daily and colleagues identified six major ecosystem services: and-trade markets) helped reduce products that contribute to the their impact on the environment and offsets and conservation are also growing. tually become an important subset of the broader today’s real-time, information-intensive we’ll see standard mechanisms for managing U.S. SO2 emissions in the 1990s, and maintenance of ecosystems and similar systems have been proposed support human activities. their contribution to the public good. field of ecosystem services. What impact this economies by developing atomic clocks and and sharing the vast quantities of data these These markets are still in their infancy. Many by the Kyoto Protocol and regional might have on carbon-trading markets is less clear. determining atomic weights in the 20th, basic networks will produce. reduction arrangements are bilateral deals between • Carbon Storage Plants and soil remove A few entrepreneurs are already building financial climate change schemes. research in climatology and ecology will help polluters (say, a rental-car fleet) and conser­vation Climate change is a global problem with both global The growth of sensor networks and standard- carbon dioxide (and in some areas, methane tools to preserve ecosystems serving high-value carbon-trading markets develop and expand. groups (say, a forest reserve). Other carbon and local impacts. There will likely be strong pressure and other greenhouse gases) from the industries. For example, London reinsurer ForestRe ization of atmospheric data, in turn, will let markets are regional or confined to specific com- to treat carbon as both a global problem and a com- atmosphere. Deforestation can release this is developing a plan to rebuild forests around the Some of the advances will come through markets create a variety of important tools. For panies. To become as global as the problem it modity, in part to link mitigation efforts in the devel- carbon; so can tillage practices that upset Panama Canal. Since destruction of those forests Over the next improvements in the models climatologists use example, it’s likely that grading standards for proposes to solve and as effective as today’s oped world with conservation efforts in the develop- large quantities of soil. produces runoff that slows traffic and adds to to simulate the consequences of additional different kinds of sequestration will take into capital markets, trading will need to turn pollution ing world. Other ecosystem services have more local maintenance costs, shipping companies have a and conservation into commodities, and science expressions: flood control benefits a city’s residents few decades, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Today’s account the security of the system, the amount • Crop Pollination According to U.C. Berkeley clear incentive to replant those forests. How This Map Was Drawn biologist Claire Kremen, 15–30% of food will need to provide the measures that set the very directly, but outsiders only benefit indirectly in climate change models treat the world as a of carbon they can store, and other factors. production depends on pollinators; bees The Panama Canal example is unusual, thanks to values of those commodities. the form of lower insurance costs. Further, some of ecoscience will series of large, homogeneous pixels. More Thus, a remote Siberian reserve that leaves and other insects contribute tens of billions the Canal’s special place in both Panama’s and the groups most interested in valuation of ecological However, the urgency around increasing greenhouse help make the granular models that can differentiate between methane-trapping tundra undisturbed and a of dollars to agricultural sectors each year. the global economy. In fact, only a small amount of services are states: eco-service valuation may thus gases obscures what, in the long term, may be an microclimates and adjacent, but very different, fast-growing softwood forest in Malaysia would work on ecosystem services has this global cast, develop into a tool for land-use planning and public • Flood Control Swamps and other wetlands, The Ecoscience 2050 map is the result of an IFTF expert workshop in October 2006. For the workshop, we invited equally important effort to develop economic mea- business case ecologies—coastal regions and nearby moun- be rated differently. Sequestration programs despite the famous 1997 estimate of the value of policy more than for global trading. alluvial plains, and riparian zones absorb excess experts in history of science, environmental science, information technology, economics, law, and finance. These sures of ecosystem services. Traditionally, econo- tain chains, for example—will let scientists could also be more finely differentiated from global ecosystem services ($33 trillion, in case water from floods and hurricanes, reducing experts worked together to create a timeline of innovations at the intersection of ecoscience and economics. mists, businesses, and governments have taken for saving the you’re interested). Most scientists working on the more precisely forecast likely impacts and the programs that develop renewable energy infra- damage to human settlements and habitats. these services for granted. Today, the scale of devel- ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: valuation of services, however, work on services value of mitigation. structures (which avoid generating carbon in opment and environmental change creates unprec- KEEPING PACE WITH NEW SCIENCE planet • Forage Production Grasses provide forage that are produced and consumed locally, or focus the first place). Tools to mitigate the risk of car- The experts: edented threats to industries like agriculture, fishing, Another set of advances will come in real-time for livestock like cattle and sheep. on the economic productivity of specific species: Looking beyond 2017, new research will almost bon investments will also emerge: a company and forestry that rely directly on healthy ecosystems. for example, the contributions of wild bees to the Tom Arnold, Chief Environmental Officer and Mike Liebhold, IFTF Senior Researcher certainly create new challenges for both science monitoring of carbon emissions. Environmental • Outdoor Recreation This is value More ominously, they now strain even more funda- might construct a portfolio consisting of forests productivity of pollinating crops in California. Co-Founder of Terrapass and business. Models of atmospheric chemistry sensors that measure the real carbon output generated by beaches, parks, and other Jessica Margolin, IFTF Research Affiliate mental ecological services like water purification, that have high sequestration capabilities but crop pollination, soil stabilization, and flood control. and climate change could rewrite business plans of cars, planes, and consumer goods will allow recreational areas. There are certainly efforts to develop more Jamais Cascio, IFTF Research Affiliate are also fire-prone; low-capture but stable Chad Monfreda, University of Wisconsin, Center for and policy alike as we gain a deeper understand- markets to target emissions even more finely comprehensive valuations of all major ecological grasslands; and risky deep ocean or geo- • Water Provision Regions provide water for Dorothy Glancy, Santa Clara University, Sustainability and the Global Environment To more accurately assign the real costs and benefits ing of the impacts of greenhouse gases. Whether services within a region: University of Vermont and to move toward taxing specific activities human consumption either by capturing and School of Law of economic activity and environmental change, it has or not these changes represent radical refinements engineering projects. Finally, such differentia- ecologist Robert Costanza is developing tools to David Zacks, University of Wisconsin, Center for —thus more quickly and directly rewarding storing rainwater; delivering water through become necessary to inventory the services that eco- of widely used models, they’ll probably require tion will make it possible to construct portfolios assess the ecological and environmental impact Sustainability and the Global Environment efforts by individuals and companies to live streams, rivers, or aquifers; and cleaning W. Michael Hanemann, U.C. Berkeley, Department of systems provide and calculate their economic value. markets to adjust the ways they value carbon as a that suit the needs of different industries. of development plans. Gretchen Daily is leading green. Those sensors, along with ground- and polluted water. Agricultural and Resource Economics commodity; potentially new models could disrupt another group refining tools to assess the value of existing regulatory regimes. Hedging against this space-based monitoring systems, will more ecosystem diversity. These efforts may eventually Peter Levin, Columbia University’s Barnard College, The workshop was led by Alex Soojung-Kim Pang scientific uncertainty, while taking advantage of lead to more integrated global trading schemes, Department of Sociology and Kathi Vian, with assistance from Matt Chwierut, commercial opportunities, will be a key strategic but for the next two decades, such science is Mike Love, and Megan Schoendorf. ten-year forecast challenge for individuals, companies, and states. likely to be focused on local markets and policies. Perspectives 2007 —Alex Soojung-Kim Pang, Kathi Vian, SR-1064 Jamais Cascio & Matt Chwierut www.iftf.org © 2007 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. All brands and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Reproduction is prohibited without written permission.