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Mpsa Faas Vortrag

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Vortrag im Rahmen der 67th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association in Chicago, April 2-5, 2009
Panel 21-21 “Models of Campaign Cognition”

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Mpsa Faas Vortrag

  1. 1. Attributions of Responsibility – Dynamics, Determinants and Consequences: The Case of the 2005 German Election Chicago, April 4, 2009 Thorsten Faas University of Mannheim 67th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association in Chicago, April 2-5, 2009 Panel 21-21 “Models of Campaign Cognition”
  2. 2. Attributions of Responsibility 1 • Important … – … from an individual’s point of view – … but also from the point of view of the political system as a whole • Studying such attributions – their determinants, but also their effects – as an important task for political science • However, this task has not been extensively met for a long time • Only recently have attributions of responsibility become a matter of interest, e.g. in the field of economic voting
  3. 3. Determinants of Attributions of Responsibility 2 • ÊDefensive attributions“ • ÊMorselizing“ • ÊContextualization“ • Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and cultural predispositions • Campaigns
  4. 4. Data 3 • Rolling Cross-Section Survey covering the final 41 days of the 2005 German Federal Election campaign (n=3,583) • Items: – “What do you think, to what extent is the ruling government responsible for the development of this economic situation: to a large extent, to some extent or not at all?” – Êthis economic situation“ refers to • Individual’s own economic situation • Situation of the national economy
  5. 5. Data 4 • ÊDefensive attributions“ Perceived State of own and national economic Situation • ÊMorselizing“ • ÊContextualization“ Interaction term • Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and cultural predispositions Interest in Politics, Party Identification, • Campaigns Left-Right-Placement Time
  6. 6. Development of Level of Attributed Responsibility 5 1 Mean Level of Attribution .5 0 13.8. 20.8. 27.8. 3.9. 10.9. 17.9. date Individual's economic situation Nation's economic situation
  7. 7. Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for … 6 … Individual Economic Situation … National Economic Situation Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ. Nat. Econ. Nat. Econ. Interest Interest Left-Right Left-Right PI: SPD PI: SPD PI: Union PI: Union PI: other PI: other day day interaction interaction -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 logit coefficients logit coefficients
  8. 8. Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for … 7 … Individual Economic Situation Ind. Econ. Nat. Econ. Interest Left-Right PI: SPD PI: Union PI: other day interaction -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 logit coefficients
  9. 9. Predicted Probabilities 8 1 .8 probability .6 .4 .2 0 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 Individual economic situation National economic situation ... ... very poor ... good ... poor ... very good ... average
  10. 10. Consequences of Attributions of Responsibility 9 • Kinder/Kiewiet (1979): sociotropic vs. pocketbook voting • Empirically, sociotropic voting prevails • But: attributions of responsibility as a potential “contingency dilemma” • Do attributions of responsibilities moderate effects of economic perceptions (pertaining to one’s own economic situation) on feeling thermometers for Germany’s major parties?
  11. 11. Consequences of Attributed Responsibility for … 10 ... feelings towards Social Democrats ... feelings towards Green Party Nat. Econ. Nat. Econ. Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ. Resp. Nat. Econ. Resp. Nat. Econ. Resp. Ind. Econ. Resp. Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ. X Resp. Ind. Econ. X Resp. -2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2 unstand. regression coefficients unstand. regression coefficients
  12. 12. Conclusions 11 • Studying attributions of responsibility is worthwhile. ☺ • Contact: Thorsten Faas University of Mannheim A5, 6 68131 Mannheim Germany Thorsten.Faas@uni-mannheim.de www.thorsten-faas.de

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