Texas weather outlook (spring 2014)

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Presented by Jeffrey Lindner at the Texas Water Conservation Association Conference in The Woodlands, Texas - March 2014

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Texas weather outlook (spring 2014)

  1. 1. Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District March 7, 2014 Texas Weather Outlook (Spring 2014)
  2. 2. Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2012
  3. 3. Texas Annual Rainfall
  4. 4. A Decade of Drought
  5. 5. 2013 Texas Rainfall
  6. 6. 2013 Texas Rainfall Departure from Normal
  7. 7. 6 Year Rainfall Departures 2008 - 53.00 : + 3.23 * 2009 – 47.01: - 2.76 2010 – 42.72: - 7.05 2011 – 24.57: - 25.20 2012 – 42.32: - 7.45 2013 – 38.84: - 10.93 Total Departure: - 50.16 2008 – 21.71: - 19.51 2009 – 30.81: - 10.41 2010 – 46.62: + 5.40 2011 – 13.08: - 28.14 2012 – 28.13: - 13.09 2013 – 25.56: - 15.66 Total Departure: - 81.41 2008 – 27.99: - 3.77 2009 – 20.61: - 11.15 2010 – 43.92: + 12.16 2011 – 12.06: - 19.07 2012 – 18.82: - 12.94 2013 – 23.45: - 8.31 Total Departure: - 43.71 Houston BUSH IAH Victoria Corpus Christi 2008 – 15.98: - 16.17 2009 – 34.11: + 1.96 2010 – 28.42: - 3.73 2011 – 16.90: - 15.25 2012 – 35.13: + 2.98 2013 – 37.04: + 4.48 Total Departure: - 25.73 Austin * Hurricane Ike landfall on upper TX coast.
  8. 8. 2014 Drought Conditions
  9. 9. 2014 Lake Levels Lake Levels and Capacity February 20, 2014 Lake Conroe: -1.18 (94%) Lake Houston: 0.00 (100%) Canyon Lake: -7.68 (84%) Lake Somerville: -2.71 (81%) Lake Texana: -3.41 (81%) Lake Buchanan: -30.62 (38%) Lake Travis: -52.25 (36%) Choke Canyon: -23.10 (34%) Toledo Bend: -3.37 (87%) Sam Rayburn: -3.23 (88%) Lake Houston Lake Travis Lake Levels and Capacity (Lowest Levels) Lake Conroe: -8.41 (66%) * Lake Houston: -7.70 (65%) Lake Livingston: -4.10 (80%) Lake Somerville: -10.36 (37%) Lake Texana: -12.43 (41%) Lake Buchanan: -30.22 (35%) Lake Travis: -54.74 (31%) Lake Georgetown: -25.31 (34%) Toledo Bend: -12.43 (58%) * Sam Rayburn: -13.60 (55%) * * New Record low
  10. 10. Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB Current State Storage: 64.0% 6 months ago: 64.0% 1 year ago: 67.0%
  11. 11. Drought Conditions: Highland Lakes Total Storage of Travis and Buchanan Lowest combined storage ever: 621,221 acre-feet on 9-9-1951 Lowest combined storage in current drought 638,282 acre-feet on 9-18-2013 Current total combined storage of Lakes Travis and Buchanan: 38%
  12. 12. Controlling Global Weather Patterns in Fall, Winter, and Spring • ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) • AMO • PDO
  13. 13. Nino Regions
  14. 14. Current Nino Region SST’s
  15. 15. El Niño – ENSO Warm Phase
  16. 16. El Niño Winter Impacts
  17. 17. La Niña – ENSO Cold Phase
  18. 18. La Niña Impacts
  19. 19. ENSO Forecast
  20. 20. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
  21. 21. Current Pacific Sea Surface Anomalies
  22. 22. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Cold phase PDO favors southern plains drought
  23. 23. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) Warm phase AMO favors southern plains drought
  24. 24. 2014 Drought Forecast
  25. 25. Long Term Outlook • Drought has always been a part of Texas climate. • With a cold PDO and a warm AMO, Texas is more susceptible to prolonged drought this decade. • The end of the 20th century was likely the most drought-free period in the last millennium. Our wet trend is expected to reverse this century, increasing the importance of drought preparedness and mitigation.
  26. 26. Questions ???

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