IHS Webcast - Aftershocks in the Supply Chain

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IHS Webcast - Aftershocks in the Supply Chain

  1. 1. Welcome to Today’s WebcastAftershocks in the Supply Chain:How to respond to crisis, assess global scenarios, and mitigate riskApril 21, 2011
  2. 2. We want your feedback!Win an iPad2 for completing today’s survey At the end of today’s webcast… Everyone who completes the survey at the conclusion of today’s live event will be entered into a drawing to win an iPad2.* *Offer valid until April 29, 2011 2
  3. 3. Today’s Speakers: Dale Ford Senior Vice President, Market Intelligence IHS iSuppli Glenn Bassett VP Strategic Business Development Design & Supply Chain Solutions IHS 3
  4. 4. The Japan Earthquake andManaging the Impact on theElectronics Supply ChainIHS iSuppli Analysis and CommentaryDale FordSenior Vice President, Market Intelligence Services
  5. 5. The Electronics Supply Chain• Very global and interconnected… Components Electronics Equipment • Semiconductors • Data Processing Memory, Microcomponents, Logic, PC, Storage, Printer, Monitor, Projector… Materials Analog, Discrete, Optical Sensor… • Wired Communications • Silicon • Flat Panel Displays Router, Switch, Modem, Metro, Long- • Glass LCD, OLED, Plasma, DLP… Haul… • Resins • Batteries • Wireless Communications • Chemicals Rechargeable, Disposable, Fuel Cell… Mobile Phone, Media Tablet, Base • Electromechanical Station, WiFi, Bluetooth… • Metals PCBs, Connectors, Antennas, Cables… • Consumer Electronics • And more… TV, Set-Top Box, Camera, Game, • Passives DVD/Blu-ray… Capacitors, Crystals, Filters, Inductors, Resistors… • Automotive Electronics Infotainment, Power Train, Safety, Body Electronics, Comfort, Security… • Industrial Electronics Medical, Automation, Energy, Mil/Aero, Control… Manufacturing & Packaging | Inventory & Shipping Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5
  6. 6. Equipment Production Disruption Japanese Supplier Share of• Data Processing – Mild Semiconductor Market By Application Market 50% Source – IHS iSuppli• Wired Communications – None 40%• Wireless Communications – Mild 30%• Consumer Electronics – Moderate 20% 10%• Automotive Electronics – Severe 0% Overall Automotive Electronics Electronics Electronics Data Processing Consumer Communications Communications Industrial• Industrial Electronics – Market dependent Wireless Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. Wired 6
  7. 7. Key Components / Materials Semiconductor FabsSilicon Wafer Production 3 1 Aizu Wakamatsu, FukushimaA Shin-Etsu Kamisu, Ibaraki  ON Semiconductor (Logic)  Fujitsu (Analog, Discrete, Memory)B Shin-Etsu Nishigo, Fukushima  Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical) 2 Atsugi, KanagawaC MEMC Utsunomiya, Tochigi 6  Mitsumi (Analog, Logic)D SUMCO Yonezawa, Yamagata 3 Goshogawara, Aomori  Renesas (Logic) 13 10 9 4 Gunma 11Display Manufacturing D  ON Semiconductor (Discrete, Logic) Hitachi Displays 1 Epicenter  Renesas (Analog, Discrete) Panasonic LCD B 5 Hitachinaka, Ibaraki Tohoku Pioneer  Renesas (Logic, Micro, Memory) 6 Iwate 4 14 Fukushima  Fujitsu (Micro, Memory)Resins, Films, Chemicals, 12 C  Toshiba (Discrete)Copper Clad Laminate… 5 8 A 7 Kofu, Yamanashi 7  Renesas (Analog, Logic, Micro) 2 Tokyo 8 Miho, Ibaraki  Texas Instruments (Analog, Optical) 9 Miyagi  Fujitsu (Logic, Micro)  Rohm (Discrete, Micro) 10 Sendai, Miyagi  Freescale (Logic) 11 Shiroishi, Miyagi Source – IHS iSuppli  Sony Semiconductor (Logic) 12 Tsukuba, Ibaraki  Rohm (Discrete) 13 Tsuruoka, Yamagata  Renesas (Logic) 14 Utsunomiya, Tochigi  Matushita (Discrete) 7 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  8. 8. Supply Chain Impact & Recovery Distance From Epicenter ImpactsSupply Disruptions Brownouts Aftershocks & Workforce Disruption Infrastructure Damage Equipment & & Limitations Logistics Interruption Rolling Blackouts Safety, Food, Gas Electricity, Water, Roads Building Damage Time to Shipment Restoration 1 to 3 4 to 6 1 to 2 3 to 4 4 to 6 Weeks Weeks Months Months MonthsSource – IHS iSuppli Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8
  9. 9. Temporary supply chain relief Semiconductor Supplier Inventory 40 90 35 80 Billions of USD 30 70 Days 25 60 20 15 50 Q109 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q1-11 E Q310 Q4-10 Inventory Value Avg. No. of DaysSource: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Semiconductor Inventory Tracker) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9
  10. 10. Race against the clock:Semiconductor suppliers• Freescale • Rohm • Sendai – Will not reopen; Shifting production • Miyagi – Temporary stop operation again on 4/7 due to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/17• Fujitsu • Tsukuba – Temporary stop operation again on 4/11 • Aizu Wakamatsu – Partial restart of operations on due to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/13 3/23 • Iwate – Still in recovery; Assessing damage from 4/7 • Sony Semiconductor aftershock • Shiroishi – Production still suspended • Miyagi – Partial restart of operations on 3/28; Assessing damage from 4/11 aftershock • Texas Instruments • Miho – Restarted initial production; Target full• Mitsumi production in mid-July; Relocated 80% of production • Atsugi – Normal production restored during recovery • Aizu – Expected to resume full production soon• ON Semiconductor • Aizu – Fully recovered • Toshiba • Gunma – Ramping to full capacity • Iwate – Temporary stop operation again on 4/11 due to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/18; Four• Renesas months to full production • Goshogawara – Temporary stop operation again on • Mie – Expect 80-90 percent production recovery for 4/7 due to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/12 May • Hitachinaka – Working to restore both 300mm and 200mm lines; Partial operation of clean room on 4/10 • Takasaki – Restarted operations on 4/8 • Tsuruoka – Temporary stop operation again on 4/7 due to aftershock; Restart initial production 4/12 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10
  11. 11. Race against the clock:Key materials• Silicon wafers (300mm) • BT Resin • Shinetsu • Hitachi Chemicals • Shirakawa – Target 70% production in June • Yamazaki - At 20% level on 4/20; Targets 40% May, 60% • Gunma – Prospect of reopening still uncertain June, 70% July- Sept • Kashima – Partial restart of operations on 4/11 • Polyvinylidene • SUMCO • Yonezawa – Partial restart of operations • Kureha – Production suspended • Covalent Materials • Other materials in process of recovery • Kitakanbara – Still impacted by blackouts • Copper foil• Hydrogen peroxide • Semiconductor mounting material • Mitsubishi Gas Chemical • Photoresist • Kashima – Currently at 30% supply; Target 70% in June • Semiconductor encapsulant and 100% in July; Challenge to hit targets • Compound wafers • ADEKA • LED chips • Fuji – Operations suspended • Semiconductor gas • Nippon Peroxide • Ultrapure water • Koriyama – Restarted operations 4/7 • Crystal and quartz components• Aluminum electrolytic capacitors • Aluminum substrates • Nippon Chemi-con • Miyagi – Two months to recover 100% capacity • Nichicon • Rubycon • Note – Japanese suppliers control 70% of WW production Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11
  12. 12. Component supply health Source: IHS iSuppli April 2011 Component Health Watch (CHW) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12
  13. 13. Impact – Renesas Renesas Components in Selected Devices Source – IHS iSuppli Teardown Analysis Product Type OEM Model Memory Logic/Micro Analog Discrete Desktop PC Apple Apple iMac MB950LL/A 1 11 Desktop PC Asus Asus M3A76-CM 8 Desktop PC Asus Asus M4A78-EM 8 Nettop PC Apple Apple Mac Mini A1347 1 4 Nettop PC Apple Apple Mac Mini A1283 1 6 Notebook PC Apple Apple MacBook 1 6 Notebook PC Apple Apple MacBook 1 2 Notebook PC Apple Apple MacBook Pro 1 8 Notebook PC HP HP Pavilion dv6t 3 Notebook PC HP HP Pavilion dv6z 3 Notebook PC HP HP EliteBook 8440p 2 Notebook PC HP HP G62t-250 3 Notebook PC Lenovo Lenovo ThinkPad T410 1 5 Notebook PC Sony Sony VGN-CS215J/W 1 Notebook PC Toshiba Toshiba Protégé R700 11 UMPC Samsung Samsung NP-Q1EX-FA01US 1 UMPC Viliv Samsung X70 EX 1 Printer Sony Sony UP-D897 10 LCD TV Sharp Sharp LC-52XS1U Television 1 7 TV Receiver Sharp Sharp TU-X1U AVC System 2 3 Set Top Box Apple Apple TV 1 Set Top Box Samsung Samsung SMT-H6106 1 Set-Top Box Technicolor DirecTV H24-100 2 Speaker System iHome iHome iP97 1 1 Game Accessory Microsoft Microsoft Xbox360 Kinect 1 Game Console Nintendo Nintendo Wii 1 Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13
  14. 14. Impact – Renesas Renesas Share of Global Semiconductor Supply Renesas Components in Selected Devices Source – IHS iSuppli Teardown Analysis Source – IHS iSuppli Product Type OEM Model Memory Logic/Micro Analog Discrete 44.0% Nokia 2320c-2b Mobile Handset Nokia 1 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia C5-00 1 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia C6-00 1 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia C7-00 1 Mobile Handset Nokia Nokia N8 1 Mobile Handset RIM RIM Blackberry Bold 9700 2 27.3% Mobile Handset RIM RIM Blackberry Torch 9800 2 24.3% Samsung Galaxy S 8GB Mobile Handset Samsung 2 1 1 Mobile Handset Samsung Samsung SGH-i917 2 1 Mobile Handset Sony Ericsson Sony Ericsson C901 1 Mobile Handset Sony Ericsson Sony Ericsson C905 1 13.0% Mobile Handset Sony Ericsson Sony Ericsson Vivaz Pro 1 Tablet Apple Apple iPad Wi-Fi + 3G 16GB 2 Tablet Apple Apple iPad Wi-Fi 16GB 2 3.9% Tablet Apple Apple iPad2 Wi-Fi +3G 32GB 1 Tablet Archos Archos 7900 1 Tablet Motorola Motorola XOOM 1 Automotive MCU Automotive Automotive Logic Semiconductor Electronics MCUs Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14
  15. 15. MCU revenues by market $16.37 Billion $5.08 Billion Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15
  16. 16. Top Automotive MCU Suppliers Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Competitive LandscapingTool (CLT) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
  17. 17. Renesas automotive customers Tier 1 Customers OEM Customers Infotainment: • Alpine • Mitsubishi • BMW • Mazda Head-Unit • Blaupunkt • Pioneer • Cadillac • Mitsubishi • Continental • Xanavi • Chrysler • Nissan Navigation • Delphi • Honda • Renault Telematics • Denso • Hyundai/Kia • Toyota • Hitachi • Mercedes • VW & Audi Powertrain: • Aisin • Mitsubishi • Chrysler • Nissan Engine control • Bosch • GM • Subaru • Continental • Honda • Suzuki Transmission • Denso • Mazda • Toyota • Hitachi • Mitsubishi Body & Comfort: • Continental • Honda AC, seat control • Delphi • Mitsubishi • Denso • Nissan etc. • Mitsubishi • Toyota Chassis & Safety • Bosch • Hitachi • Honda Air bags, brakes, • Continental • Visteon • Hyundai/Kia • Delphi • Nissan etc. • Denso • Toyota Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17
  18. 18. MCU Share of AutomotiveSemiconductor Content Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18
  19. 19. Top 22 MCU OEM Spend(39% of Total MCU Market) Source: IHS iSuppli H2 2010 OEM Semiconductor Spend Analysis Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19
  20. 20. Medical electronicssemiconductor content profile MCU = 14.7%; $1.3B Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20
  21. 21. Power transistor & thyristorrevenues by market $11.61 Billion $1.94 Billion Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21
  22. 22. Power Transistor / Thyristor Share of IndustrialElectronics Semiconductor Content Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool (AMFT) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22
  23. 23. Top IGBT Suppliers Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Competitive LandscapingTool (CLT) Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23
  24. 24. Hewlett-Packard Delta Electronics Dell Samsung Electronics Panasonic SonyCopyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. Apple Cisco Systems Siemens LG Electronics Denso Toshiba Top 22 Power Xstr / Thyristor OEM Spend Bosch Group (41% of Total Power Xstr / Thyristor Market) Lenovo Continental Motorola NEC Ericsson Acer Hitachi Huawei Technologies Lite-on Group24 Source: IHS iSuppli H2 2010 OEM Semiconductor Spend Analysis
  25. 25. Military / Aerospacesemiconductor content profilePwr Xstr Thyristor = 8.3%; $0.5B Source: IHS iSuppli Q1 2011 Application Market Forecast Tool Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25
  26. 26. Key Asian Electronics Locations Japan • 21% of Semiconductor Supply • 49% of Optical Components • 57% of Image Sensors • 40% of Microcontrollers • 33% of Display Drivers • 60% of Silicon Wafers • Key Materials and Chemicals South Korea • 59% of DRAM • 49% of Data Flash Memory • 27% of Display Drivers • 18% of Small/Medium LCD Panels • 51% of Large LCD Panels Taiwan (Hsinchu) • 67% of Pure Play Foundry (Globally: 150 Fabless Semiconductor Firms > $30M) • 24% of Semiconductor Supply • 37% of Display Drivers • 58% of Small/Medium LCD Panels • 34% of Large LCD Panels China (Shanghai) • 80% of Mobile PCs China (Shenzhen) • 25% of Mobile Handsets Copyright © 2011 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26
  27. 27. JAPAN AND GLOBAL RISK SCENARIOS AGILITY IN RISK MITIGATION BEST PRACTICE WORKFLOW Glenn Bassett VP Strategic Business Development IHS Design & Supply ChainCopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27
  28. 28. Moving From Risk Identification To Risk Mitigation• From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted • Identifying Components In My Business • Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices • Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices • Identifying Sources Of Inventory • Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools • Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers • Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan • Longer Term ImpactsCopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28
  29. 29. Moving From Manufacturer/Commodity To MPN• Leverage Reference Database To Identify MPNs At Risk• Analyze AVL For Linkage In Risk ComponentsCopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29
  30. 30. Moving From MPN To BOM • Leveraging BOM Tools In PLM, PDM, Or In This Case IHS BOM Manager Helps Move From MPN To Affected BOM • With BOM Identified, End Unit Exposure Can Be Correlated Shown: IHS BOM ManagerCopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 30
  31. 31. Prioritize Key Components, BOM, Devices NPI Production Imminent Proto-type / Pre-Production In-production with near-term delivery• Prioritize End Unit Exposure• Calculate Time Horizon / Revenue Risk Profile• Prioritize Through End Unit Back To Component Calculate Inventory Need & PriorityCopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 31
  32. 32. Where can I get this? Where Does Current Inventory Exist? • Direct from the Factory • Approved Vendor / Manufacturer (AVL / AML) • Franchised and Authorized Sources • Approved Independent Distributors Shown: IHS BOM Manager • ERAI Members • Valid Alternate Parts or Sources Shown: IHS-ERAICopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 32
  33. 33. What alternatives exist? Equivalent Parts? Upgrades? Downgrades? Functionally equivalent options? Are they ROHS Compliant?Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 33
  34. 34. Choices• AVL Or Alternate • Authorized Channel Inventory • Secondary Market• Inventory Investment • Bridge Buy • Making Bets On Near Term Recovery Or Redesign • Lifetime Buy • Mitigating Greater Risk Time HorizonCopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 34
  35. 35. Counterfeit: Industry Standards & ReportsGIDEP and ERAI are the counterfeit reporting entities DoD Adopted the SAE AS5553 91% of reports to date via ERAICopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 35
  36. 36. The Last 6-Years of Component EOL 2009 – Economic Events Drive EOL: What About 2012 Manufacturer-Issued End of Life (EOL) Distribution of EOL by Dominant Business Driver Technology100% < 25% of Change90% Demand-Side Drivers80% ~90% of EOL in 200970% Unspecified / Administrative60% Supply Side Organizational50% Innovation, Technology, and Manufacturing40% Environmental Compliance Demand-Side30%20% Impact of RoHS10% Compliance 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36
  37. 37. Moving From Risk Identification To Risk Mitigation• From Manufacturer & Commodity To End Units Impacted • Identifying Components In My Business • Linking Down To BOMS & End Devices • Prioritize Key Components/BOMS/Devices • Identifying Sources Of Inventory • Leverage Alternate Sourcing Tools • Identify Mitigation Plan Working With Suppliers • Develop Counterfeit Mitigation Plan • Longer Term ImpactsCopyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37
  38. 38. Free Offer for Attendees: Risk Analysis We will do a BOM risk assessment for webcast attendeesFill Out Our Survey and Specify “YES” to Free Analysis* Or Send Email with Subject Line “April 21st Webcast Offer” to Webcasts@ihs.com *Limited to qualified electronics value chain entities. Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38
  39. 39. Example: CounterfeitsProblems are immediately flagged and the BOM can be monitored thereafterActual Medical Devices Bill of Material (4 of 94 electronic components) “ICs were failing to boot up.” “Maxim stated in writing that they did not manufacture the product shown in the below noted photographs. The lack of a country of origin and other visual nonconformities suggest the parts in question have been remarked by an unauthorized third party.” “Test report shows parts not performing up to spec, incorrect voltage.”Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39
  40. 40. Contact us: What do you need to know? How can IHS provide information and insight to help you? Client Scenario(s) : “How will this impact my supply chain?” What are my regulatory obligations and Conflict Minerals Origin: Conflict-free tantalum. exposure to U.S. or California conflict minerals positions? Supply Flow: Tantalum capacitors, have already Which commodities do I use that rely on been in short supply now for over 12 months.Explicit: Conflict tantalum, gold, tin, or tungsten? WhatMinerals Tracking products do I use these in? Impact and Implications of Global Production: •Global Reaction to Crisis will See Panic Buying Where are my raw materials, Creating Shortage and Pricing Issues manufacturers, and suppliers located? Was •Rolling Power Outages and Logistical Issues any Japan production ceased or Expected for the Next Several Weeks compromised? •Production Disruption of Critical Materials such as Poly Silicon, Photo Resists & Resins What shortages should I expect? Will price •Components Impacted Include and lead time increase? Should I buy parts I NAND need immediately to mitigate risk? DRAM Standard Logic If needed, where can I locate and secure Filters alternate sources of these parts? Should I Inductors redesign my product? High-Value and High-End Aluminum and What parts will be discontinued by Ceramic Capacitors manufacturers? Have any been discontinued MOSFETs already? Which ones? Likely Rise in Counterfeit Part Activity: How do I avoid counterfeits? Do I have any Just prior to Japan quake, the senate launched today that I don’t know of? What specific congressional investigation counterfeit parts risk. lots of parts are counterfeit? Among reasons, a 2010 study by the Commerce Department found the problem of counterfeit parts If a highly constrained supply chain touched nearly 40% of the DoDs parts supplyImplicit: Risk of persists – or parts were discontinued – what chain, and was getting worse.Counterfeit Parts safer open market part sources exist? Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40
  41. 41. Join the Conversation Follow IHS on Twitter… Get the latest supply chain news, updates and trending topics from @IHS_SupplyChain Mention @IHS_Supplychain and today’s webcast for an additional chance to win an iPad2* *Offer valid until April 29, 2011.
  42. 42. We want your feedback!Win a iPad2 for completing today’s survey Survey Offer: Everyone who completes the survey at the conclusion of today’s live event will be entered into a drawing to win an iPad2.* *Offer valid to all survey respondents until April 29, 2011. Risk Analysis/BOM Assessment: 1) Complete the Survey and Specify “YES” to Free Analysis or 2) Send Email with Subject Line “April 21st Webcast Offer” to Webcasts@ihs.com** **Limited to qualified electronics value chain entities. 42
  43. 43. Questions? Send questions and requests for information to: Webcasts@ihs.com 43

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