Towards a realtime Twitter analysis: The case of PP11                                                    Teun Terpstra, HK...
Discussion and future work1 minute agoResults: early warning, facts and feelings, resilience5 minutes agoAnalysis (Pukkelp...
M Bouman      3TNO Nieuwe10 januari 2011huisstijl                  SLIDE
Communicaton changes:Nowadays everybody is a journalist !    4
Social media:speed, interaction…
... and virtually unlimited sharing opportunities
Social media & emergency management                                      Red river floods                                 ...
Moerdijk Fire, January 2011                              First hour: 5000 tweets                              Total 5 Janu...
Project X Haren, September 2012  Bron: http://www.mobypicture.com/user/harro/ (Harro Ranter)                              ...
Flood hazard, Friesland / GroningenJanuary 2012                              Messages per hour (34.000 total)             ...
Law of “When hell breaks loose”         “Hell” = Culpability x Relevance x Mediagenicity2(Study “Van gebeurtenis tot crisi...
18 Augustus 2011, 18.15 uur   5 deaths, 10                              heavily injured                              Storm...
14
Data CollectionManual search query   References to festival: pukkelpop, ppop, pp11   Characteristic words: hasselthelpt, g...
Geographical spread of Tweets             Total spread afterwards:                                        SLIDE 16
Pukkelpop Twitter visual analysisSelection of 96.957 tweets between noon and midnight                                     ...
1. Early warning?                         without retweets      tweets                                                    ...
1. Early warning      343 tweets (ex retweets) between 4:45 and 6:15 PM          56 tweets (16%) related to the changing w...
2. Damage: photo’s from eye witnesses                                    First hour: 674 tweets                           ...
2. DamageReaches 10.000 followers within three minutes (119 retweets)                                  18:31    19:01     ...
2. Casualties                                               7:50 PM                                               Total tw...
3. Community resiliencePatriceF         Are you at Pukkelpop and in need of aid? Check @Deborahhasselt @iworx @patricef #p...
Discussion   Festival goers were taken by surprise, so it seems. But (weak) signals were   there.   Retweets accounted for...
Implications for crisis management   Visual analysis provide a good start to identify abnormalities   Filtering on damage ...
Future research   Early detection and early warning:      Examples: Queensday, (death) threats and weather conditions   Fi...
Questions? #daretoask              t.terpstra@hkv.nl              @teunterpstra
Thank you!WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM   SLIDE 28
TIMELINE                                                                                First relevant                    ...
Towards a realtime Twitter analysis during crises: the case of PP11
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Towards a realtime Twitter analysis during crises: the case of PP11

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  • JANUARY 11, 2010 WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE
  • this is just a snap shot of today, consider the future with the current adoption of social media! TITEL VAN DE PRESENTATIE 16-01-13 09:28
  • Prior research: twitter adoption in crises (hughes, palen), floodings (starbird), haiti (starbird) Hurricane irene, moerdijk, virginia floods, london riots, etc.
  • Fire incident in a company working with chemical substances
  • Project X was a Facebook event encouraging people to come to the city Haren in order to celebrate a 16 year old girl’s birthday The event resulted in a riot.
  • Improved situational awareness. Smart filtering needed: from hand analysis towards automated analysis. red river floods, oklahoma wildfires: analysis by hand
  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtw2bskw4e8
  • 1% of total tweets are geo tagged 79% of total tweets originate from festival site (2 hours before impact) First 15 minutes after incident, 77% of geotagged originate from festival site, then decreases to 15 and 4 % as messages spread across the world. TITEL VAN DE PRESENTATIE 16-01-13 09:28
  • Peaks of nearly 600 tweets about incident per minute. Real-time interpretation would have been impossible by hand. TITEL VAN DE PRESENTATIE 16-01-13 09:28
  • TITEL VAN DE PRESENTATIE 16-01-13 09:28
  • - Damage reporting Keywords like collapse, destroy, ravage, devastate and conjugations of these terms Tweet of user ”c_concepts” at 6.31, reaches audience of 10.000 followers in 3 minutes, and 119 retweets over time Until 7.01 pm official news media message( screenshot?) With same info that was available 40 minutes before from festivalgoers. 54% of tweets contain hyperlinks to news media websites or photo sharing sites, to show damaged properties. - Casualty reporting and rumors about deaths About 30 casualty related tweets per minute after start incident Rumors on deaths: The tweet of “Rozestadfm” from 7:12 initiated a rumor, but was answered with 60 retweets of which 30% questioned validity of the statement Typical keywords to express doubts were rumor, speculate, irresponsible 118 phrased their doubts in the form of a question, requesting official source verification. 7:37 increase in activity, with peak of 256 tweets per minute about deaths, after official news media confirmed there were multiple deaths, 52% of these were retweets, where others expressed shock, agitation, astonishment and hope. 3,676 (27%) of casualty related tweets Contained hyperlinks to news articles that confirm the number of deaths and casualties. TITEL VAN DE PRESENTATIE 16-01-13 09:28
  • Patricef Twitterlists to form a suplly demand for food, places to sleep, showers, clothing, internet access, transportation, etc. Phone numbers were shared, some users offering help created their first twitter account Retweeted 424 times, 9,315 tweets contained #hasselthelpt, the nearby village and soon #genthelpt and #brusselhelpt followed. Sentiment analysis indicated positive responses, expressed by spect, great, fantastic, nice, love, homage, heartwarming, impressed. TITEL VAN DE PRESENTATIE 16-01-13 09:28
  • JANUARY 11, 2010 WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE
  • JANUARY 11, 2010 WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE
  • Towards a realtime Twitter analysis during crises: the case of PP11

    1. 1. Towards a realtime Twitter analysis: The case of PP11 Teun Terpstra, HKV Arnout de Vries, TNOFlood Risk 2012 Richard Stronkman, TwitcidentNovember 22, Rotterdam WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM > SLIDE
    2. 2. Discussion and future work1 minute agoResults: early warning, facts and feelings, resilience5 minutes agoAnalysis (Pukkelpop) and research method (Twitcident)10 minutes agoGoal: “Monitor and analyze Twitter during incidents inreal-time to improve crisis management”15 minutes agoSocial sensors and citizen journalism20 minutes ago
    3. 3. M Bouman 3TNO Nieuwe10 januari 2011huisstijl SLIDE
    4. 4. Communicaton changes:Nowadays everybody is a journalist ! 4
    5. 5. Social media:speed, interaction…
    6. 6. ... and virtually unlimited sharing opportunities
    7. 7. Social media & emergency management Red river floods SLIDE 7
    8. 8. Moerdijk Fire, January 2011 First hour: 5000 tweets Total 5 January 2011: 70.000 tweets Tool: Twitcident SLIDE 8
    9. 9. Project X Haren, September 2012 Bron: http://www.mobypicture.com/user/harro/ (Harro Ranter) SLIDE 9
    10. 10. Flood hazard, Friesland / GroningenJanuary 2012 Messages per hour (34.000 total) Tool: Gilgamesh SLIDE
    11. 11. Law of “When hell breaks loose” “Hell” = Culpability x Relevance x Mediagenicity2(Study “Van gebeurtenis tot crisis, wanneer breekt de pleuris uit?” MCDm 2002) crisis (communication) manager
    12. 12. 18 Augustus 2011, 18.15 uur 5 deaths, 10 heavily injured Storm http://www. youtube.com/ watch?feature= player _detailpage&v=Xtw2 Pukkelpopbeelden http://www. youtube.com/Pukkelpop watch ?v=h3StNHaGW8E Storm incident 2011 13
    13. 13. 14
    14. 14. Data CollectionManual search query References to festival: pukkelpop, ppop, pp11 Characteristic words: hasselthelpt, genthelpt, antwerpenhelpt, brusselhelpt, ppok. Words and hashtags separated through logical “OR” operator. Tweets /min 576 tweets/min 21:01 hour 156.157 tweets total in 2 days SLIDE 15
    15. 15. Geographical spread of Tweets Total spread afterwards: SLIDE 16
    16. 16. Pukkelpop Twitter visual analysisSelection of 96.957 tweets between noon and midnight 2. Damage and casualties Tweets /min Messages about (rumours on) casualties and deaths1. Early warning 3. ‘Community resilience’ ‘Dangerous weather’ messages as early People offering help in indicators various ways (e.g. twitterlists) 94,109 2,848 tweets tweets 12:00 18:15 00:00 SLIDE 17
    17. 17. 1. Early warning? without retweets tweets Tussen 17:38 en 18:15 retweets • 311 retweets • 277 (89%) RT@ShannonLeto 2011-08-18 17:38:19 You ready Pukkelpop?! Might be a wet one out there! Slip-n- slide-an-dog-an-you!! Remember that one @jaredlet SLIDE 18
    18. 18. 1. Early warning 343 tweets (ex retweets) between 4:45 and 6:15 PM 56 tweets (16%) related to the changing weather conditions. 35 (10%) observations of extreme weather conditions (e.g. cloud-bursts, hail, storm and lightning in nearby places like Brussels, Leuven, and Hasselt). 22 tweets (6%) reflected worries that the storm might hit on Pukkelpop. SLIDE
    19. 19. 2. Damage: photo’s from eye witnesses First hour: 674 tweets 64% are retweets 17% request more detailed information 1,071 (54%) tweets contained hyperlinks to other social / news media showing some of the damaged properties 20
    20. 20. 2. DamageReaches 10.000 followers within three minutes (119 retweets) 18:31 19:01 – Official news media (VRT): festival interrupted and possibly a tent collapsed – Information on Twitter available approximately 40 minutes earlier SLIDE 21
    21. 21. 2. Casualties 7:50 PM Total tweets 256 TPM13 minutes: ‘Death’ tweets 237 TPM• 1342 tweets about casualties• 52% RT spreading confirmations• Other tweets expressed shock, agitation, astonishment and hope 18:52 19:37 rumors journalists and news about media editors confirm deaths multiple deaths 19:12 ‘rozestadfm’ “BREAKING NEWS: Serious injuries and deaths at Pukkelpop in Hasselt (B) during a heavy storm #storm #pukkelpop #events #belgium #hasselt” ‘rumor, ‘speculate’, ‘confirm’, ‘official news’, ‘source’ and ‘irresponsible’ SLIDE 22
    22. 22. 3. Community resiliencePatriceF Are you at Pukkelpop and in need of aid? Check @Deborahhasselt @iworx @patricef #pp11 20:19 #pukkelpop #hasselthelpt (RT is appreciated)PatriceF Do you want to help? Use #hasselthelpt to support festivalgoers at #p11 20:27jhml #hasselthelpt RT @theonehitwonder: If someone needs a place to sleep, let me know. We are 20:27 from Hasselt #pp11• 9315 tweets #Hasselthelpt (74% retweets)• #Genthelpt, #Brusselhelpt, …• Creation of Twitterlists (e.g. PatriceF)• Sharing of phone numbers• Creation of Twitter accounts 3. ‘Community resilience’ SLIDE 23
    23. 23. Discussion Festival goers were taken by surprise, so it seems. But (weak) signals were there. Retweets accounted for large amounts of tweets on damage and casualties and only occurred when pictures (in case of damage) or links to official news sites (in case of casualties) were available. This suggests social norms on twitter prevent propagation of unverified information about delicate topics. Solidarity is important in coping with disasters (Starbird et al). Within 2 hours the #hasselthelpt initiative was followed massively. This suggests social media can facilitate community resilience that originate from nearby people. Twitter monitoring could enable crisis managers to confirm or refute rumors and take emotional responses into account in crisis communications.WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE 24
    24. 24. Implications for crisis management Visual analysis provide a good start to identify abnormalities Filtering on damage could have provided pictorial evidence # of retweets attract attention and point toward a hot topic from a trusted source, and news about damage or casualties mostly have high propagation Not just about technology: organizational solutions needed for embedding social media usage in crisis communications, such as more experience, knowledge and policies.WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE 25
    25. 25. Future research Early detection and early warning: Examples: Queensday, (death) threats and weather conditions Filters for damage and casualties need to be verified for other incidents. New topic filters such as resilience need more research. Retweets and source credibility are indeed related. Images and links, besides the author, play an important role in assessing credibility. Indicators for assessing real-time credibility seem possible and are valuable for crisis response teams.WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE 26
    26. 26. Questions? #daretoask t.terpstra@hkv.nl @teunterpstra
    27. 27. Thank you!WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE 28
    28. 28. TIMELINE First relevant pictures showing Start incident: Reports damage (collapse heavy rainfall about of tent) damage Large amounts of Indications of and rumour spread about Initiation of heaviness of casualties #deaths #Hasselthelpt storm GSM network Reports Deaths semi- is fixed heading to confirmed by about “SMS use ~ 21:00 Pukkelpop individual 19:15 only” is asked16:22 19:38 20:19 18:35 deaths 18:30 19:12 18:15 from citizens journalist forAugust 18th 2011 August 19th 19th aug12:00 AM Fire depts Sint 21:56 20:06 20:50 19:40 19:53 18:24 19:19 19:03 Truiden say 6 @Pukkelpop deaths and message with Hasselt says 1 “ death 7 injured Belgian press handelingsper Official news: started reporting spectief” 5 deaths, tens @Pukkelpop First pictures (individual (phone injured, first message showing panic accounts) number and festival since incident URL) cancelled Press conference Announcement (TV): 2 deaths Dutch press that festival is and 40 injured starts cancelled for the reporting night WWW.FLOODCONTROL2015.COM SLIDE 29

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