Fall Insights 2013


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Fall Insights 2013

  1. 1. INSIGHTS FALL 2013 Message from the Managing Partner Telemus Q3 2013 Global Outlook Equities Fixed Income Fund Spotlight: Lyrical Asset Management Telemus Wealth Advisors Telemus in the News Welcome to the Fall edition of our quarterly newsletter Insights. In these informative pieces you’ll hear from us, and others, regarding the current market environment as well as a variety of other investment and financial topics. In this issue you’ll hear Jim Robinson, CIO and CEO of Robinson Capital Management, review the past quarter’s broad investment performance. Evercore Wealth Management, the sub-advisor of our core equity strategy, will comment on this past quarter’s performance. Charlene Reardon, the co-manager of our core taxable bond strategy, will discuss the use and benefits of target date ETFs. Andy Bass, our Chief Wealth Officer, will review year-end tax planning considerations. Finally, Andrew Wellington, portfolio manager of the Lyrical U.S. Value Equity Fund which is one of our equity holdings, will discuss the fund’s third quarter performance. As we move through the final quarter of 2013, politics in Washington have once again taken center stage. The almost forced shutdown of the government in early October temporarily put the U.S. equity markets back on their heels providing a much needed rest for stock prices after a dizzying ascent for most of the year. The bond market rallied as nervous investors sought shelter from the chaos in the relative safety of the U.S. Treasury market, despite a potential default. After a lot of back and forth posturing an agreement was
  2. 2. A Message From The Managing Partner reached avoiding a shutdown of the government and a default by the U.S. on their debt. As a result, the equity markets have rallied back to above where they were before this whole mess started. The bond market has continued to rally on the back of some weaker economic news bringing the yield on the 10 year Treasury Bond back down to about 2.5% again. All the turmoil created by this political crisis reinforces our approach to investing. As we’ve often said at Telemus, we’re in the keep rich business not the get rich business. Our strategies are designed to protect wealth in uncertain times like these. We’ll continue to stay focused on what’s important and not let ourselves, or our clients, get caught up in the noise being generated from Washington. Gary Ran Chairman and Partner 2| Telemus Capital | Fall 2013
  3. 3. Telemus Q3 2013 Global Outlook Provided By Jim Robinson, Robinson Capital Management The third quarter proved to be a good environment for investors in most asset classes. While domestic taxable bonds returned 0.5%, and investment grade municipal bonds returned 0.7%, the global taxable bond market returned an exceptional 2.8%. The stock market provided the best returns though. The S&P 500 returned 5.2% for the third quarter, emerging market stocks returned 5.9%, frontier market stocks returned 6.3%, and developed international stocks returned 11.7%. Smaller company stocks were the star performers as domestic small-cap stocks returned 10.2% and their counterparts in developed international markets returned a hefty 15.6%. The losers for the quarter were the more defensive and higher yielding hybrid equity securities like REITs (down 3%), preferred stocks (down 2.2%) and energy infrastructure MLPs (down 0.7%). High yield municipal bonds (down 3%) were the hardest hit bond sector due to the uncertainties surrounding the Detroit bankruptcy. not have a huge impact on overall GDP growth. Failure to make good on our debt obligations, which we would still place a very low probability of happening, would be a disaster that would likely impair GDP growth and the markets for some time to come. While the end result was positive the road to it was a little bumpy. Most stock and bond markets struggled during August as investors grappled with the potential for another military action in the Middle East (Syria), the Federal Reserve’s pending tapering of bond purchases (quantitative easing), speculation regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s successor and the coming showdown in Washington over the nation’s debt ceiling. Fortunately, the Syrian situation was resolved peaceably, the Fed decided to postpone tapering, and Larry Summers removed his name from consideration as the next Fed chief, leaving Janet Yellen, the current Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, as the likely heir apparent. That removed sufficient uncertainty to allow the global market rally to resume. The debt ceiling debate still hasn’t been resolved. The government shutdown, while devastating to those whose jobs have been furloughed, will Most of the market’s headwinds of uncertainty have been removed; but, the one really big headwind remains—a resolution to the debt ceiling debate. The global stock market is poised for one more leg up—we have breadth (the developed international markets began to outperform last quarter), we have depth (smalland mid-cap stocks are outperforming their larger brethren in all developed markets, and in the domestic market we are starting to experience price-to-earnings multiple expansion. A timely (within the next couple weeks) resolution to the debt ceiling debate will allow the rally to continue. If it drags on too long it will eventually have a detrimental effect on the economy, markets and investors’ psyches. Most of our client’s portfolios experienced strong absolute returns for the quarter but we did lag benchmarks somewhat on a relative performance basis. Much of this is by design as we seek to keep up in strong markets but give it back more slowly in weak markets. It was predominantly our non-traditional investments that caused the biggest drag on relative returns. As noted above, real estate investment trusts (REITs), energy infrastructure master limited partnerships (MLPs) and preferred stocks were the losers for the quarter. While we much prefer to have all winners, we are comforted in knowing that these more defensive positions should outperform in any market pullback. We remain committed to our mandate to build the least risky portfolios necessary for our clients to achieve their financial goals. Telemus Capital | Fall 2013 |3
  4. 4. Equities Provided By Timothy Evnin, Portfolio Manager, Evercore Equities Year to date through the 3rd quarter of 2013, the Partners’ Account is up 26.63% versus the S&P 500 return of 19.79%. For the 3rd quarter, we garnered a return of 8.80% versus 5.05% for the S&P 500. portfolio. However, American Tower completed a recent acquisition that we believe will cause both earnings and stock price to increase while Apple continues to be an underappreciated company and a good value at current prices. After the 2nd quarter, we expressed some concern over the coming summer months and the potential for volatility. July turned out to be a positive month, followed by a down month in August and a nice rebound in September. We did not make many changes to the portfolio in the third quarter. As indicated in our note on August 12th, we sold ExxonMobil in mid-August as the company continued to underperform our expectations. Other modest changes were previously communicated and included a trim of Western Digital and Blackstone and additions to AutoNation and AMC Networks. Year to date, Blackstone, Western Digital and Rock-Tenn continue to provide the most significant contributions to return on the portfolio. Although Rock-Tenn has dropped 20% in the past two weeks, we continue to like the progress at and outlook of the company. Year to date, American Tower Corp and Apple continue to be the largest detractors in the While the current situation in Washington is a distraction, we are more focused on our companies’ upcoming earnings reports and look forward to communicating any resulting changes in our outlook. Telemus Capital, LLC (“Telemus Capital”) and Evercore Wealth Management, LLC (“Evercore”) have entered into a subadvisory agreement whereby Evercore makes its Core Equity Strategy available to Telemus Capital clients. As of August 30, 2013, the core equity portfolio offered by Telemus Capital to its clients has an estimated 80% overlap to the Evercore Equity Strategy. This overlap is subject to ongoing changes based on investment decisions by both Evercore and Telemus Capital portfolio managers. 4| Telemus Capital | Fall 2013
  5. 5. Fixed Income By Charlene Reardon, Taxable Fixed Income Portfolio Manager / Senior Advisor Target maturity corporate bond exchange traded funds (ETF’s) offer an innovative way to obtain fixed income exposure. At Telemus, we have integrated these funds into the Telemus Capital Blended Bond Strategy (formerly known as Beacon Blended Fixed Income Strategy). It is beneficial to understand the key attributes of these investments that we believe complement our client portfolios. Briefly, let’s first review some features of a traditional corporate bond. A corporate bond is a debt security issued by a corporation and sold to investors. The backing for the bond is based upon the payment ability of the company. The key variables of an individual corporate bond include credit quality, coupon, yield-to-maturity, liquidity and the maturity date of the bond. In the Telemus Capital Blended Bond Strategy, we evaluate the credit worthiness of each issue we are considering adding to our taxable fixed income portfolio. Once a corporation or issuer is selected, we then review the available outstanding debt from the selected company—choosing the most strategic combination of coupon, yieldto-maturity, size of issuance and maturity date to complement our bond portfolio. Barring any defaults, the maturity date represents the discrete day the loan will be repaid by the issuing company. The selection of an individual corporate bond into an investment portfolio is paramount as an individual bond portfolio generally has more concentrated exposure to the respective issuers. For this reason, we thoughtfully assemble a variety of issuers as to properly diversify the asset class. Further, the maturity date and the cash flow generated from the bond’s coupon are factors in the duration of each bond in our fixed income portfolio. Duration is a measurement of interest rate sensitivity influencing the value of the bond(s) held in the portfolio. As U.S. Treasury interest rates move higher, for example, the value of the bond decreases due to the inverse nature of the relationship between interest rates and bond prices. Through this selection process, we build diversified, liquid, individual bond portfolios with permanent and discrete securities; these features enable us to manage credit risk and interest rate risk through duration. In conclusion, a traditional bond offers customization of credit exposure, precision in the ability to manage interest rate risk through duration, and finally a return of investment capital. On the other hand, it is perceived that the best features of a traditional bond fund are both enhanced liquidity and diversification. Unlike an individually managed bond portfolio, a traditional bond fund is at a disadvantage due to other defining features. These features are often explained in the fund’s prospectus which delineates the guiding rules and principles with which the fund is managed. The most prominent of these features lie with the benchmark index construction which influences the perpetual nature of a bond fund’s duration. Most traditional bond funds are modeled off of a “rules-based” benchmark index. One such rule is the minimum maturity rule. This rule essentially forces the index to turn over bonds one year prior to maturity rather than wait for them to redeem at maturity. Additionally, liquidity rules force the traditional index (and, thus, the bond fund) to sell bonds when they are less liquid or have reduced their outstanding issuance (through a management buy back, tender or early call)— most likely forcing the index to buy additional bonds with a less favorable yield-to-maturity. The added selling pressure in the market that occurs when these circumstances arise depresses the value of the exiting bond further. According to a study in 2011, Ng and Phelps determined that an investment grade corporate index that held bonds to maturity and did not remove less liquid bonds would outperform an otherwise identical traditional index.1 The additional shortcoming of the traditional bond fund is that they mirror the duration of a benchmark index which is perpetual or constant in nature. In other words, if the benchmark index duration is four years, the traditional bond fund’s duration will also be four years and it seldom deviates from that duration over time. As many traditional bond funds are actively managed, the managers are hamstrung in a rising interest rate environment to abide by the benchmark index. Telemus Capital | Fall 2013 |5
  6. 6. A traditional bond fund will experience the same fate of the benchmark index. For example, the bond fund will decrease in value as interest rates rise. The constant duration feature of the traditional bond fund reduces the ability to manage the interest rate risk of a fixed income portfolio. However, what if you could combine all of the best features of an individual bond with the best features of a traditional bond fund? With the advent of the target maturity corporate bond ETF’s—you can. Target maturity corporate bond ETF’s are bond funds that act like individual bonds. They are passively managed strategies that have a set maturity date, just like an individual bond. They deliver a bond-like performance experience and provide extensive diversification. Targeted bond funds offer an easy, inexpensive, and efficient way to access the bond market. In our actively managed Blended Bond Strategy, we have found target maturity ETF’s to be a useful tool to integrate into our separately managed bond portfolio. Specifically, we have incorporated targeted maturity high yield BulletShares® into our managed portfolios; these targeted funds offer the liquidity and extensive diversification of the high yield asset class to our existing blended bond strategy with a targeted maturity date offering an individual bond-like performance experience. The index behind the BulletShares® was designed by Accretive Asset Management beginning in 2010, specifically to include the best features of an individual bond and traditional bond fund. BulletShares® are now available from multiple financial institutions capturing investment grade credit quality or high yield credit quality market exposure. BulletShares® are structured to represent the performance of a held-to-maturity portfolio of U.S. dollar–denominated corporate bonds with effective maturity dates. For more information on this topic or the Telemus Capital Blended Bond Strategy, please contact your advisor. Customization Precision Greater Diversification Greater Liquidity Return of Capital Investment X X X X X Traditional Fixed Income Funds X X Active Fixed Income Mutual Funds X X Closed-End Funds X X Target Maturity Bond Funds Individual Bonds X X 1) Ng, Kowk-Yen and Bruce D Phelps “Capturing Credit Spread Premium” FAJ Vol 67, Number 3 2011 BulletShares® is a copyright © 2012 by Accretive Asset Management LLC. All rights reserved. 6| Telemus Capital | Fall 2013 X
  7. 7. Fund Spotlight: Lyrical U.S. Value Equity Fund By Andrew Wellington, Portfolio Manager, Lyrical Asset Management We believe our strategy and approach to investing differentiates us from other investment managers, even those that share a value approach to investing. We are deep value investors and by this we mean that we look to invest in companies that trade significantly below intrinsic value. This separates us from other value managers who focus on relative value or core value approaches and whose portfolio characteristics have higher P/E, P/B and P/CF multiples. We asses valuation based on current price relative to long-term normalized earnings, which contrasts us to those that rely on P/B or dividend yield. We only invest in quality business that we believe should earn good returns on invested capital, and avoid volatile businesses and companies on excessive leverage. Other value investors will consider owning any business regardless of quality if they believe the price is low enough. But, we will only invest in businesses of adequate quality. We invest only in business we can understand, and avoid those that are excessively complex or require specialized technical knowledge, even though they may appear cheap from a high-level perspective. We construct our portfolio purely bottom up and without regard to what is or is not contained in a benchmark. We are concerned with concentration risk, and have strict limits on how much capital can be invested in any one position or any one industry. Our portfolio is constructed to be balanced and diversified across 30-40 positions, giving us exposure to many different types of companies and situations without sacrificing our strict investment standards. Since its launch on February 4, 2013, the Lyrical U.S. Value Equity Fund (LYRIX) has produced a total return of +15.9%, compared to the +9.9% total return for the S&P 500 for the period ended May 31, 2013. In analyzing our portfolio’s performance attribution, we find it helpful to examine both the investment success rate and any skew in the distribution of returns. Our success rate has been high over this period, as 92% of our investments posted gains, and 78% outperformed the S&P 500. Skew has also been a positive factor, as our outperformers have outperformed by 14% while our underperformers have underperformed by 9%. During this period we sold four positions, as one company announced it was being acquired, two approached their fair value, and for one we lost conviction in our thesis. For each sale we added a new position from our pipeline of opportunities. We are still finding attractive stock opportunities to add to the portfolio, even as some of our existing positions begin to approach our estimates of fair value. It is getting harder to find these opportunities, but the ones we are finding offer as much upside as the stock we currently own. Telemus Capital | Fall 2013 |7
  8. 8. For September 2013, the U.S. Value Equity composite gross return was +5.1%, compared to the +3.1% return for the S&P 500 Index. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ITD U.S. Value Equity (Gross) +80.0% +25.2% -0.2% +19.7% +37.0% +268.7% U.S. Value Equity (Net) +68.3% +22.4% -1.0% +18.8% +33.1% +222.9% S&P 500 (Total Return) +26.5% +15.1% +2.1% +16.0% +19.8% +106.5% +4,180 bp +730 bp -310 bp +280 bp Relative Performance (Net) Outlook Continued stock price gains in excess of earnings growth have pushed the valuation of the S&P 500 to 15.5x trailing twelve months earnings. While this is above the 14.5x average observed over the last fifty years, we do not think this excess is material enough to be a significant headwind to future returns. On a forward basis, our composite portfolio has a valuation of 11.5x next twelve months earnings. +1,330 bp +1,640 bp The S&P 500 has a valuation of 14.2x on the same basis, a premium of over 23%. The discounted valuation of our portfolio prevails even though growth estimated for the S&P 500 lag those of our portfolio, at 8.3% versus 9.1%. As always, we invite you to contact us with questions or to request additional detail on the portfolio. Thank you for your continued trust and interest in Lyrical Asset Management. Telemus Wealth Advisors By Andrew Bass, CWM, CPA Chief Wealth Officer and Senior Advisor As we start the final quarter of the year we hope that everyone has been working with their tax advisors to plan for the end of the first full year under the revised tax laws. The following are a few of the new tax provisions that need to be considered and analyzed so as to be optimally situated. Tax rates have a better level of certainty now than at this time last year which will allow for better multiyear planning. Tax Provisions That Took Effect in 2013 • For 2013, a new high income tax rate of 39.6% is imposed on taxable incomes over $450,000 for those filing jointly, or $400,000 for those filing individually. In addition, the existing tax brackets have been slightly widened. Planning: Taxpayers approaching the highest tax brackets may want to consider deferring income if they will be in a lower bracket in 2014. • The new 3.8% net investment income (NII) surtax took effect this year. This impacts taxpayers who have investment income and have adjusted gross income (“AGI”) over $250,000 joint/$200,000 single. Planning: Taxpayers close to the NII thresholds of total income should consider strategies regarding timing of total income and realization including loss harvesting to minimize the impact of the surtax. Deferral strategies including maximization of retirement plan contributions or tax exempt income should also be considered. • Taxpayers in the top tax bracket of 39.6% will have their qualified dividends and long term capital gains taxed at 20% versus 15% or less. In addition, they will be subject to the 3.8% NII. Note that the holding period requirements in order to have a dividend deemed qualified remain in effect (generally held for at least 61 days out of the 121 day period that begins 60 days before the ex-dividend date). 8| Telemus Capital | Fall 2013
  9. 9. Planning: This 2013 change is another example of why it is preferable to avoid being in the 39.6% tax bracket, why it is important to consider income shifting strategies and to take care to consider the impact of short term trades and the effect on treatment of dividends. For taxpayers with total income less than $72,500 joint / $36,250 single, dividends and LTCG are potentially not taxed at all. Therefore, if possible, taxpayers should consider strategies to stay beneath this threshold. • 2013 is the last year for taxpayers over 70 ½ to exclude up to $100,000 of their “qualified IRA charitable contributions” from income. A qualified charitable contribution is a distribution from an IRA that is paid directly to a qualified charity before January 1, 2014. This distribution could also meet the taxpayer’s annual required minimum distribution requirement. Planning: Taking advantage of the qualified IRA charitable contribution before it is eliminated is one method to avoid income that could otherwise impact taxation breakpoints as noted above while simultaneously satisfying a charitable desire and meeting minimum annual distribution requirements. • Starting in 2013, taxpayers whose income is over $300,000 joint/$250,000 single will have their itemized deductions limited based on 3% the excess of their AGI over the threshold. Planning: Timing strategies for income and deductions should be considered based upon which year is more optimal. • Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) has been made permanent and indexed. The confusing matter is that the NII surtax is not considered when calculating AMT, thus higher income taxpayers could be paying tax under the AMT rules and still owe the NII surtax. Both the AMT and the limitation on itemized deductions can severely reduce the benefits of many deductions including investment fees, taxes and other deductions. Planning: Consideration needs to be taken regarding the timing of certain expenses if the AMT is applicable. Other Changes of Note: • In 2013 the annual gift tax exclusion has increased from $13,000 to $14,000. • The estate and gift tax exemption has increased to $5.25 million. • An additional 0.9% Medicare tax applied to wages and self-employment income over $250,000 joint/$200,000 single. For many of the 2013 tax changes, it is important to maximize the use of income deferral techniques such as maximizing qualified plan contributions. In a similar vein, the timing of stock option income recognition is critical as it may have a significant impact on tax planning in the current year and in future years. Deferring income via installment sales or like kind exchanges (if appropriate) may also be a good strategy if a lower tax bracket is expected in coming years. It is important to meet with your financial advisors to discuss the implications of the 2013 tax changes and to implement all strategies available for optimal tax planning. Telemus Capital | Fall 2013 |9
  10. 10. 25 DOCUMENTS YOU NEED BEFORE YOU DIE Design your death dossier soon or you could be setting up your heirs for frustration and financial pain. MARRIAGE and DIVORCE LIFE INSURANCE and RETIREMENT & • Life Insurance Policies • Individual Retirement Accounts • 401(k) Accounts • Pension Documents • Annuity Contracts • Marriage License • Divorce Papers HEALTHCARE CONFIDENTIAL • Personal and Family Medical History • Durable Healthcare Power of Attorney • Authorization to Release Healthcare Information • Living Will • Do-Not-Resuscitate Order BANK ACCOUNTS • List of Bank Accounts • List of All User Names and Passwords • List of Safe-Deposit Boxes PROOF of OWNERSHIP • Housing, Land and Cemetery Docs • Escrow Mortgage Accounts • Proof of Loans Made and Debts Owed • Vehicle Titles • Stock Certificates, Savings Bonds and Brokerage Accounts • Partnership and Corporate Operating Agreements 10 | Telemus Capital | Fall 2013 THE ESSENTIALS • Will • Letter of Instruction • Trust Documents
  11. 11. Telemus in the News Telemus Plans Growth with Stake Sale to Focus, Printed in Crain’s Detroit Business, Aug. 11, 2013 Southfield-based Telemus Capital Partners LLC plans to use capital from the sale of a minority stake of the firm to New York City-based Focus Financial Partners LLC to fund the acquisition of other Michigan investment advisers. Focus, one of the largest groups of independent wealth management companies in the country with more than $60 billion under management, has invested an undisclosed amount in Telemus in exchange for the minority stake, company executives told Crain’s last week. Telemus, in turn, has secured an undisclosed share in Focus. Telemus, with assets under management of more than $2 billion, will continue to operate under the direction of its current partners while securing access to capital and expertise in areas such as marketing, technology and growth-oriented operations, said Chairman and Partner Gary Ran. Being able to remain an Independent firm while tapping Focus’ expertise and new investment made the deal attractive for Telemus, he said. Telemus plans to use the new capital to pursue acquisitions of other registered investment advisers in Michigan, among other things. “We want to be a consolidator. There are a lot of (registered investment advisers) we want to talk to,” Ran said. Telemus is also looking for opportunities to add asset managers to improve its clients’ experience, said Partner and Senior Adviser Lyle Wolberg. Specific headcount increases aren’t yet known. Ran, Wolberg and Partner/Senior Adviser Bob Stone, all former Merrill Lynch and UBS Financial Services executives, were among the founders of Telemus when it launched in 2005, with about $1.2 billion in assets under either advisement or in active management. Today, Telemus also counts Mary Bakhaus and Joshua Levine as partners, employs 10 advisers, and manages more than $2.2 billion in assets for high-net-worth individual clients and institutions, Wolberg said. Focus CEO Rudy Adolph said his group was attracted by Telemus’ position as one of the leading wealth management firms in the country, along with its client-centric focus. “We believe it’s a very scalable model,” he said. Focus, which has invested in 25 other independent, U.S. wealth management companies and one in Manchester, England, did not pursue majority control in the Telemus deal, Adolph said. “The golden rule in the partnership model is you never turn an entrepreneur into an employee,” he said. “We invest, ultimately, in the people who run the business.” The companies aligned with Focus collectively manage well over $60 billion in assets. Crain’s New York Business reported 2011 revenue of $179.6 million. They provide wealth management services, and benefit and investment consulting services, to individuals, families, employers and institutions. The deal between Telemus and Focus was more than seven years in the making. Focus first approached Telemus in the fall of 2005, Ran said, but Focus’ model wasn’t fully developed at that point, and Telemus was just starting out. What finally spurred Telemus to agree to align with Focus? Finding capital has been more and more difficult since 2008, Wolberg said. Telemus’ partners also got the chance to watch how Focus developed its business, Ran said. “It was an unproven formula; now it’s proven,” he said. Focus’ investment in Telemus shows not only a vote of confidence in the local company itself, but in the growth potential for the Midwest and Michigan, said David Sowerby, portfolio manager in the Bloomfield Hills office of asset manager Loomis Sayles & Co. LP. The metro Detroit financial services and investment market is a potential growth industry relative to where it was 20 years ago, he said, adding that the market is “more fragmented than not.” “There’s growth potential via acquisitions (and) via individuals wanting to do business with people they see at the local grocery store ... or run into at a baseball game, instead of someone who parachutes in from New York,” Sowerby said. Telemus Capital | Fall 2013 | 11
  12. 12. southfield, michigan two towne square, suite 800 southfield, michigan 48076 248.827.1800 phone 248.827.1808 fax ann arbor, michigan 110 miller avenue, suite 300 ann arbor, michigan 48104 734.662.1200 phone 734.662.0416 fax 800.827.3519 telemuscapital.com