Parallel vote tabulation nigeria experience

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  • The more the data we have, the more certain we can be about predicting outcomes accurately. There is safety in numbers.Central limit theorem holds that the greater the number of observations (sample points), the more likely it is that the distribution of the data points will tend to conform to a known pattern.
  • The desired margin of error depends on what degree of accuracy is required from the estimates.The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results. The larger the margin of error, the less faith one should have that the poll's reported results are close to the "true" figures; that is, the figures for the whole population. Margin of error occurs whenever a population is incompletely sampled.Condfidence level measure the reliability of a dataset.
  • Parallel vote tabulation nigeria experience

    1. 1. What is Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT)? The parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) often called ‘quick count’ is an election observation methodology that is employed for independent verification of election results. It involves observation of the election day voting and counting processes at polling units, collection of all polling unit information and independent tabulation of these information.
    2. 2. Components of PVT An independent check on the official vote totals; and A systematic analysis of the qualitative aspects of an electoral process
    3. 3. PVT Goals Deter fraud – most basic reason why conducting PVT. Detect fraud – detect vote-counting fraud. Timely forecast of election results Promote confidence in the election process and the results as announced by the election management body (in Nigeria – INEC)
    4. 4. PVT Goals Cont’d Assess the quality of the process – most challenges of electoral processes are based on anecdotes. PVT goes beyond anecdotes to characterize the magnitude and severity of problems in the electoral process. Encourages citizens to participate in the electoral process.
    5. 5. PVT Goals Cont’d Extend organizational reach and skills building – building of a network of CSO partners. Set the stage for future activities – most organizations that conducted PVTs have been seen to be honest and have continued in other governance related projects other than election observation.
    6. 6. PVT Prerequisites Access to the polling units/polling unit data Credibility with citizens – two main components of credibility to be considered is competence and independence. Adequate resources – significant human, technical and financial resources. Adequate project management structure. Carefully developed checklist form
    7. 7. PVT underlying principles Use of statistical principles of probability and sampling Rapid collation of results from the field using suitable ICT tools. Use of suitable technologies to capture and analyze results collected from observers on the field Well trained observers assigned to pre- sampled polling units.
    8. 8. Statistical principles Reliability and validity Adequate sample size – (offers faster, cheaper and more practical approach to studying the entire process). The population – PVT uses the population eligible to vote (registered voters). – INEC registered approx. – 70 million Nigerians Probability: The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.
    9. 9. Constructing the sample Identify the unit of analysis – polling units in the case of Nigeria Determine the margin of error and confidence levels; Determine the most appropriate type of random sample; - {general random samples or stratified random samples}.
    10. 10. Rapid collation of reports from Observers on the field using adequate ICT tool Carefully study the environment and strategize on the most effective ICT tools available. In Nigeria – we used Mobile/SMS aggregated through a content provider (aggregator). Aggregators network could accept SMS from all (8 – 9) GSM & CDMA provider – i.e. MTN, Glo, Airtel, Etisalat, Starcomm, Visafone, Reltel, Zoom.
    11. 11. Suitable technologies to capture and analyze observer reported data RapidSMS  free and open-source framework for dynamic data collection, logistics coordination and communication, leveraging basic short message service (SMS) mobile phone technology.  Read more on RapidSMS @ www.rapidsms.org
    12. 12. Adequately trained Observer network NSC Secretariat State Coordinating Committee Local Government Area Supervisors Election day Observers
    13. 13. Observation Tool - Checklist An independent check on the official vote totals; and a systematic analysis of the qualitative aspects of an electoral process A checklist is a type of informational job aid used to reduce failure by compensating for potential limits of human memory and attention. It helps to ensure consistency and completeness in carrying out a task

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