Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Sustainable Renewable Energy Business

442 views

Published on

One of the many causes of failure of Off-grid electrification project is not involving the community in the development of project. A model has been developed and demonstrated for prefeasibility analysis of off-grid electrification projects. This model compares the two cases for each possible scenario for the site. Two cases are conventional off-grid electrification and off-grid electrification with investment in downstream productive activities. The model has been successfully demonstrated for Village Gorad, District Thane, Maharashtra, India. The results show that the sustainability of the project can be assured by initiating productive activities in the remote communities.

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Sustainable Renewable Energy Business

  1. 1. Guide: Prof. Prasad Modak Tausif (09335009) 1
  2. 2. Outline of presentation 2
  3. 3. Increasing energy deficit 10 12.0%x 100000 MU 9 10.0% 8 7 8.0% 6 5 6.0% 4 4.0% 3 2 2.0% 1 0 0.0% 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 Source : (Ministry of Power, 2012) 3
  4. 4. Electricity demand projections 4
  5. 5. Renewable Potential 5
  6. 6. Renewable potential 12x 10000 MW 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source : (Ministry of Power, 2012) 6
  7. 7. Energy Access Rural 7
  8. 8. Distributed Renewable Energy 8
  9. 9. Development Strategy 9
  10. 10. Objectives 10
  11. 11. Motivation 11
  12. 12. Central Subsidies Source : (Table 2-1) 12
  13. 13. Technology Biomass gasifier Biogas Solar PV Wind 13
  14. 14. Source : (The Energy and Mining Sector Board, 2008) 14
  15. 15. Framework Technical Dimension  Resources  Demand  Technologies Decision making dimension  Socio-economic impacts  Project Financial analysis  Project catchment analysis 15
  16. 16. Process flow of development 16
  17. 17. Modules of framework1. Electricity Demand estimation and projection module2. Renewable energy technologies selection and sizing module3. Project financing module4. Downstream productive activities financing module5. Sensitivity analysis module 17
  18. 18. Two cases1. An energy access scenario to meet current and projected electricity demand assuming no additional commercial activity in future.2. A sustainable energy supply scenario to meet current and projected electricity demand while also investing in the additional productive activities 18
  19. 19. Demand module : domestic 19
  20. 20. Demand module: irrigation 20
  21. 21. Demand module:commercial 21
  22. 22. Demand module: social 22
  23. 23. Demand : Seasonal variation 23
  24. 24. Technology configuration 24
  25. 25. Financial case 1 25
  26. 26. 26
  27. 27. Financial case 2 27
  28. 28. Sensitivity module 2 1 3 Input parameter -5% base 5% 1 Initial costs 46,24,226 4867607 51,10,987 Rs 2 Annual costs (O&M) 159885 168300 176715 Rs 3 Debt ratio 34% 36.31% 38% % 4 Debt interest rate 15% 15.00% 15% % 5 Debt term 12 12.0 12 Yr 6 Preferential customer enery rate difference 2 2.0 2 Rs 7 Energy price escalation rate 2% 2.00% 2% % 8 Renewable enrgy generated 9,37,901 987264 10,36,627 kWh 9 transmisson loss 2% 2.00% 2% % 10 inflation rate 0% 5.00% 10% % 28
  29. 29. Case study Gorad 29
  30. 30. Gorad Village Gorad District Thane Longitude 19⁰30.215’ N Latitude 73⁰1.551’E Language Marathi Households 254 Primary occupation Agriculture, labour Area(cultivable) 184.4 hectare Major crop Rice and Tuar Irrigation Rain fed Cattle 400 approx Average Annual household income ₹50,000 Post office No School Anganwadi, Primary and middle schools Health Facility No Grid electricity Available but not reliable 30
  31. 31. 31
  32. 32. Gorad Seasonal variation Seasonal Variation Thousands kWh 140 120 100 80 Preferential Irrigation Commerrcial 60 Social Total 40 Non Preferencial 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -20 32
  33. 33. Load distribution between technologies 140 Thousands kWh 120 100 80 Min (Base) Avg (intermediate) 60 Max (peak) Total 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 33
  34. 34. Technology Scenarios Scenario Biomass Biogas Solar PV Wind Gasifier 1 Yes Yes Yes No 2 Yes Yes No Yes 3 Yes No Yes Yes 4 No Yes Yes Yes 5 Yes Yes Yes Yes 34
  35. 35. Scenario 1 Generation Vs Demand 2,000 Cummulative cash flowsThousands kWh Annual 150 Millions 1,500 Demand#1 100 1,000 Annual 50 500 Demand#2 Annual - - 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Generation (50) 35
  36. 36. Case 1Scenario >> 1 2 3 4 5Project Pre Tax IRR 4% #NUM! -3% 8% -9%Project After Tax 4% #NUM! -3% -10%IRR 8%Equity IRR 187% #NUM! 132% 385% 54%Community IRR 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%Equity payback (yr) 17 26 26 13 26Net present Value -6,391,672 -34,927,566 -23,619,499 -7,998,598 -28,242,616(Rs)Benefit-cost ratio 0.51 -0.38 0.19 0.68 0.08 36
  37. 37. Case 2Scenario >> 1 2 3 4 5Project Pre Tax IRR 22% -4% 12% 18% 11%Project After Tax 21% -4% 12% 17% 10%IRREquity IRR 148% 19% 121% 265% 95%Equity payback (yr) 7 26 10 8 11Net present Value 8,933,072 -23,461,850 -7,550,622 4,583,987 -11,201,510(Rs)Benefit-cost ratio 0.07 1.68 0.74 1.18 0.63 37
  38. 38. Gorad Sensitivity Case 1 A: Project IRR,130.00 C: Equity IRR, F: NPV,120.00 G: Benefit Cost Ratio110.00 A100.00 C F 90.00 G 80.00 130.00 70.00 Case 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 120.00 110.00 A 100.00 C F 90.00 G 80.00 70.00 - 10 20 30 40 50 38
  39. 39. Conclusion 39
  40. 40. Policy recommendation 40
  41. 41. Future work 41
  42. 42. Future work 42
  43. 43. 43
  44. 44. 44
  45. 45. 45
  46. 46. 46
  47. 47. 47
  48. 48. 48
  49. 49. 49
  50. 50. 50
  51. 51. Thanks Dr. Prasad Modak  prasad.modak@emcentre.com  +91 982 012 6074 Tausif Farooqui  tausif.farooqui@gmail.com  +91 922 142 6955 51

×