Simon Cook - The global water and food crisis

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Simon Cook - The global water and food crisis

  1. 1. The global water and food crisis Global picture of water and development Simon Cook, Tassilo Tiemann & Myles Fisher
  2. 2. Outline • Crisis… • …behind every crisis is a situation – more people, more demand, same resources • The detail in ten river basins – 4 water related reasons for poverty • Some impacts of climate change (very brief) • Conclusions
  3. 3. Crisis INDIA NEWS CTOBER 1, 2009 India's Drought Worst Since 1972
  4. 4. India: Drought affects 100s of millons
  5. 5. India: Floods displace a million
  6. 6. Africa: Drought hits region
  7. 7. Southern Africa: Floods (again)
  8. 8. Yellow River: China’s sorrow
  9. 9. Mekong: Conflict over hydropower
  10. 10. Ganges: 500 million facing disaster
  11. 11. Brazil: Conflict over water use
  12. 12. Venezuela: Uncertain supply
  13. 13. Andes: Conflict , shrinking supply
  14. 14. Behind every crisis is a Situation
  15. 15. Population increasing
  16. 16. Food & water demand growing • Food crisis • Water crisis
  17. 17. …Water availability diminishing Reducing per capita availability of water ‘000 m3 16 14 Africa 12 10 8 World 6 Asia 4 2 MENA 0 1960 1990 2025
  18. 18. Details from river basins
  19. 19. Conditions of water and food systems analyzed in 10 basins Niger
  20. 20. Research plan Water availability +Water use How much water flows How well is water used? through basins? Water productivity of crops, Who uses it? livestock, fish…(kg/m3 Institutions (who supports / controls /obstructs improvement? What are the impacts on livelihoods? How are water, food and poverty linked? Potential interventions Change processes
  21. 21. Livelihoods influenced by 4 water-related factors 1. Availability / Scarcity How much water is there? 2. Access Who gets water? How is it shared? 3. Hazard: Are people hit by water-related problems? Floods, droughts, disease 4. Use and abuse How well do people convert water into benefit? Do they damage the resource?
  22. 22. 1 Water scarcity • More people = greater scarcity per capita • Pressure points emerging – Indus – Yellow – Limpopo • But no simple relationship between availability and poverty
  23. 23. Water availability is one poverty factor…of many Drought Poor Poverty education Access to credit From Sao Francisco Torres et al., 2008
  24. 24. Conclusions about scarcity: Scarcity: less influential than we thought Per capita income vs. water GNI vs Water availability 50,000 40,000 GNI ($/cap PPP) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -10,000 World Bank, 2008 3 Water availability (m /cap)
  25. 25. 2 Access to water Local to international % of population with access to safe drinking water. (From Gleick, 2001)
  26. 26. Who uses the water? M M eko ng 1,19 5 b cm Ganges 1,167 bcm Sa o Fr a nc i s c o G 622 bcm SF Nile Ni 2,042 bcm Capacity limit 1.0 ET Ganges (normalised) Sao Francisco Lim popo 229 bcm L Fish 0.5 Mekong Volta Crops Nile Limpopo Yellow River Livestock Karkeh Indus Yellow YR 384 bcm 0.0 Andean 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 K ar kheh K 2 1, 4 0 2 mcm Net runoff Rainfall Rainfed cropping Grass (normalised) Woodland / other Irrigation
  27. 27. Who uses the water?
  28. 28. How people develop from water use: Globally, irrigation supports dense populations…. Indus Ganges Water use (mcm) Water use (m cm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Irrigated Irrigated Woodland + Woodland + Grass Grass Rainfed Rainfed 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 200 150 100 50 0 population (millions) population (millions) Mekong Yellow Water use (mcm) Water use (mcm ) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Irrigated Irrigated Woodland + Woodland + Grass Grass Rainfed Rainfed 200 150 100 50 0 population (millions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 population (m illions) Relative values better than absolutes
  29. 29. …but not in Africa (or Latin America) Volta Lim popo Water use (m cm ) Water use (m cm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed 20 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 0 population (m illions) population (millions) Sao Francisco Nile Water use (m cm ) Water use (mcm) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed 20 15 10 5 0 200 150 100 50 0 population (m illions) population (millions)
  30. 30. Sao Francisco basin 2 worlds..haves and have-nots
  31. 31. Limpopo These farmers have access to water
  32. 32. These farmers do not …
  33. 33. Ganges • Uncontrolled groundwater use GW pumps in Indus- Ganges basin Photos: Fred Pearce Map: Sharma et al, 2009
  34. 34. Nile • Egypt needs every drop [from Ethiopia]
  35. 35. Mekong In most places this flood would be a problem…..
  36. 36. To these people, flood = fish
  37. 37. Conclusions about access: • Infrastructure still lacking in many regions: a service problem • Widespread problems of water-sharing: A resource problem – local to international scale • Governance a widespread and difficult issue – Balancing demands of water - land - development – Balancing demands of many groups of people
  38. 38. 3 Water-related hazards • Drought • Flood • Disease
  39. 39. Flood, drought: Global scale hazards
  40. 40. Disease: Malaria Endemicity: 2007 Volta Malaria
  41. 41. Conclusions about water-related hazards • Hazards hit the poor hardest • Hazards prevent critical investment to get out of poverty
  42. 42. 4 Water use & abuse – Water productivity must improve to meet demand
  43. 43. Water productivity: In some places responding to demand 0.800 3 Water productivity, kg/m VN, Mekong Delta 0.600 Vietnam VN Central Highlands 0.400 Laos Cambodia NE Thailand 0.200 0.000 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Mac Kirby, 2007 Rice
  44. 44. In some places very high Yellow River water productivity(irrigated) 48 Ringler & Ximing 2009
  45. 45. Wprod (rainfed)_ 49 Ringler & Ximing 2009
  46. 46. In most places, water productivity is VERY low: Africa, Latin America • Crop water productivity generally very low (<10% of potential) • Reflects lower pressure on land resources • Livestock, fish important • Huge potential for improvement
  47. 47. Conclusions about water productivity • Generally very low – Major potential for Wpr (estimated potential) improvement • Few data on total YR IGB benefits and costs Mekong – Multiple uses Nile Limpopo Volta Niger – Net productivity
  48. 48. Impact of Climate Change • On scarcity – Some basins drier, others wetter – Rainfall patterns changing • On access (conflict) – Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult • Demand for green power • Flow projections uncertain • On hazard – Unprecedented events are unpredictable • On use – Investment of co-factors more difficult Uncertainty brings MAJOR problems
  49. 49. Final thoughts • The water and food crisis is really a development crisis • How does water constrain development? • How does development pressurise water resources? Agriculture vs GNI 50,000 Gross National Income ($/capita) 40,000 30,000 What factors are preventing people moving “up the slide”? 20,000 10,000 0 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 -10,000 Agricultural contribution to GDP (% )
  50. 50. Basins differ in their position on a development trajectory Niger Volta % Contribution of agriculture to GDP Limpopo IGB Nile Mekong YR Sao Karkheh Francisco Andes World Bank, 2007 % Rural poor
  51. 51. Niger Agriculture as % of GDP Agricultural Volta Nile IGB Limpopo Transitional Mekong Karkheh Yellow Industrial Andes Sao Fran Rural poverty
  52. 52. …so the major issues vary between basins Niger Agriculture only Agriculture as % of GDP Extreme poverty Low WR development (no irrigation) Volta Complex LLH support (Livestock and fish may dominate) Nile IGB Some sectors Limpopo moving Pressure on others Agriculture ‘left behind?’ Mekong Increased vulnerability Karkheh Yellow Markets very active Rural poor in pockets Andes Improved potential for Sao Fran ecosystem services Rural poverty
  53. 53. Conclusions • There is a water and food threat – Will cause more crises if not responded to • Some clearly solvable needs – Better sharing and infrastructure – Hazard management – Improved eco-efficiency (water productivity) • Solutions depend on political processes – Resource sharing – Use valuation – Assessment under uncertainty
  54. 54. Muchas gracias por su amable atencion

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