חשיבותן של מערכות לאבטחת אספקת גז בשעת חירום

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חשיבותן של מערכות לאבטחת אספקת גז בשעת חירום

  1. 1. Security of gas supply Gert-Jan Heerens TNO - Energy
  2. 2. Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research “TNO” Founded in 1932 by act of parliament Independent source of expertise Approximately 4.400 staff ~ €580 M turnover OUR MISSION To apply technological knowledge with the aim of strengthening the innovative power of industry and government
  3. 3. Business of TNO From concept to innovation/application Knowledge development Knowledge application Knowledge exploitation Develop fundamental knowledge With universities With partners With customers Embedded in the market - PhDs sponsoring - MsC Traineeships - Student Internships - Joint Industry Projects - Research Programs - Technology roadmapping - Consultancy - Research and Development - Licensing I.P. - Spin-out companies
  4. 4. TNO presence Corporate story 4
  5. 5. TNO organization
  6. 6. 6 Mechanics, Materials & Structures Building Engineering & Civil Engineering Communication & Information Physics & Electronics Fluid Mechanics Chemistry & Energetics Flow & Structural Dynamics High Performance Energetics Advanced Concepts & Products Process Modelling & Control Separation Technology Flow Control Innovative Materials Instrumentation Power Trains Space & Science Radar Transceivers Nano-instrumentation Acoustics Optics Computer Vision Intelligent Imaging Distributed Sensor Systems Sonar Electronic Defence Corrosion & Anti-fouling Lab for Ballistic Research Weapon Systems Materials Performance Holst Multilayer Devices Rapid manufacturing Precision Motion Systems Personal Monitoring Vehicle Dynamics Mechanical & Maritime Constructions Greenhouse Fieldlab Building Innovation Structural Assessment & Building Lab Energy, Comfort & Indoor Quality Cooling and Heating Systems Business Information Services Service Enabling & Management Security Multimedia Technology Planning, Performance & Quality Connectivity Access Network Technology Vibrations & Noise Building Materials Material Performance, Risk & Reliability Network & Service Control Envir. Sust. Transport TNO Technical Sciences 1-1-2011 Expertise groups Technical Science
  7. 7. Business focus Energy
  8. 8. Gas infrastructure • Production • Transport • Storage • Distribution Security of gas supply; dealing with events Consumers Event Event
  9. 9. Security of gas supply; dealing with events in war like scenarios Prevention Minimizing impact Minimizing the effect of the impact Defence / security Defence / Energy Energy Expertise from:
  10. 10. Design and construct infrastructure $ Many requirements to be balanced: • Security of supply • Safety • Minimum environmental impact • At affordable costs • Capacity • Future developments, biogas. • Resilience, threats, failure • Storage • Legislation, regulation, tax • Technology, • … Model based scenario analysis as part of the design process Changes only possible with high investment.
  11. 11. Key aspect of scenario analysis to support the design for critical gas infrastructure: • Provide comprehensive data to support decision making process.
  12. 12. “Inline” real time prediction of gas distribution in complex gas network systems.
  13. 13. The Gas Distribution Network in the Netherlands Discovery of the largest natural gas field of Europe in 1959 (Groningen Field, 100 TCF) led to a fine mazed gas distribution network supplying industry and practically all households with gas (currently 40 TCF reserves) Current national policy aims at strengthening sustainable gas production (biogas production) in the network High pressure pipelines in the Netherlands
  14. 14. Current Situation for Gas Distribution Providers • Responsible for gas supply (at specified pressure) to its customers • Single gas supplier • Constant gas quality • Predictable gas usage of industry and households 67/40 bar 8 bar 4 bar 8 or 4 or1 bar 100/30 mbar
  15. 15. New Developments for Gas Distribution Providers • Local biogas providers feed into the network • Variable Demand (Dynamic) • Local heat generation • Local power generation (coupling E and G markets) • More flexible Gas Supply Market • Green for Grey Government Policy • Increased Gas Quality bandwidth • Higher uptime 67/40 bar 8 bar 4 bar 8 or 4 or1 bar 100/30 mbar Biogas Feed
  16. 16. Solution: Direction Decision Center One-Column Format Paper SPE 160748 “Prediction and dynamic operation of gas distribution networks” R.J.P. van der Linden Old New
  17. 17. Decision Center Tasks • Network Monitoring of • Pressure, flow, Voltage, Current • Transport quality (delivery reliability) • Gas quality • Network quality • Event handling • Short Term Forecasting with multiple scenarios • Maintenance planning and control • Balancing Slide 17
  18. 18. Monitoring, Prediction and Balancing the Gas Network • Need of a real-time network prediction model • Available Models and Tools are developed for network capacity design (not real-time, no real-time field input, …) Slide 18
  19. 19. New dynamic simulation versus linear calculations Slide 19 • TNO developed software for dynamic simulation of (plant) networks (PULSIM) • Includes mass, impulse and energy balance • Includes models for compressor machinery
  20. 20. Real-Time Network Simulation Base Case (Regional Network) Slide 20 Several hundreds km of pipelines, 254 stations, >8000 users, 81000 pipe segments
  21. 21. Flow Prediction for two scenarios Slide 23 Normal Situation Pipe out of operation north of de Koog
  22. 22. Role of the Real Time simulation in Decision Support Slide 24 Meteo Controls Demand Pattern Supply Pattern Netwerk events Planned (Maintenance) Unplanned (Failures) Operational Network Netoperator-BC Sensors Operator Support Modellen Data > information Prediction Diagnostics Balancing Proces Actie Advice (4-24-48 h) Status Historian databaseData Performance MPC Customers Paper SPE 160748 “Prediction and dynamic operation of gas distribution networks” N.E. Ligterink & R.J.P. van der Linden
  23. 23. Conclusion • A fast simulator was developed for prediction flow, pressure and gas mixture composition at any point in a gas distribution network • Enables real-time prediction of network behavior • Designed for use in an operator support system, • Enables to scenario analysis for cost effective design. • Tested with off-line data of a regional network and a communal network • Current developments: • Pilot implementation (2013) • Can support war like scenarios Slide 25 Paper SPE 160748 “Prediction and dynamic operation of gas distribution networks” N.E. Ligterink & R.J.P. van der Linden
  24. 24. Gas network dealing with events war like scenario’s Prevention Minimizing impact Minimizing the effect of the impact Defence / security Defence / Civil Civil
  25. 25. 2 7 Mechanics, Materials & Structures Building Engineering & Civil Engineering Communication & Information Physics & Electronics Fluid Mechanics Chemistry & Energetics Flow & Structural Dynamics High Performance Energetics Advanced Concepts & Products Process Modelling & Control Separation Technology Flow Control Innovative Materials Instrumentation Power Trains Space & Science Radar Transceivers Nano-instrumentation Acoustics Optics Computer Vision Intelligent Imaging Distributed Sensor Systems Sonar Electronic Defence Corrosion & Anti-fouling Lab for Ballistic Research Weapon Systems Materials Performance Holst Multilayer Devices Rapid manufacturing Precision Motion Systems Personal Monitoring Vehicle Dynamics Mechanical & Maritime Constructions Greenhouse Fieldlab Building Innovation Structural Assessment & Building Lab Energy, Comfort & Indoor Quality Cooling and Heating Systems Business Information Services Service Enabling & Management Security Multimedia Technology Planning, Performance & Quality Connectivity Access Network Technology Vibrations & Noise Building Materials Material Performance, Risk & Reliability Network & Service Control Envir. Sust. Transport TNO Technical Sciences 1-1-2011 Cross fertilisation, combine expertise's. Defence Ènergy
  26. 26. Materials Gas physics Mech design
  27. 27. 29 Events: Accidents and terroristic threats
  28. 28. 30 Terroristic Attacks on LNG tankers and storages • Risk assessment • Damage extent for all weapon effects • Cascading effects • Passive & active counter measures Close-in explosion
  29. 29. Gas leakage scenario Gas dispersion (source and weather conditions) Gas explosion overpressure TNO CFD code AutoReagas 31 Calculation of pressures from gas-explosions, pressure
  30. 30. 32 Various application scales, distances and materials
  31. 31. 33 Blast study (SBM) for topside structure
  32. 32. 34 Structure under blast load (study for Bluewater and vanDam) • New advanced blast walls to withstand higher pressures from more gas throughput (FLNG) • Effective (low mass and cost) design of blast walls by means of developed failure mechanisms in FEM • Check of existing structure and components under blast load
  33. 33. 35 Test facilities GEC (Schaik) LBR (Ypenburg) Blast simulator (Rijswijk)
  34. 34. Front End Engineering & Design study – TNO’s contribution / support Gas leakage dispersion & gas explosion overpressure Risk analysis Piping arrangement & deck layout Position of blast walls Choice and Development of blast walls & blast doors Transient structural response due to blast (Siemens) PFP (passive fire protection) optimisation 7/12/2013 36
  35. 35. Innovation according to some others….

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