Epidemiologic Transition


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Epidemiologic Transition

  2. 2. 3 ILMIYA INSTITUTE OF NURSING Tariq Javed Gill. Post RN B.Sc.N
  3. 3. Objectives In this session, all the participants will able to :  Define Epidemiology.  Define Epidemiologic Transition.  Explain the theory of Abdel Omran and its main points  Explain the stages of Epidemiologic Transitions. 4
  4. 4. What is epidemiology?  Epidemiology, branch of medical SCIENCE that studies the distribution of DISEASE in human populations and the factors determining that distribution, chiefly by the use of STATISTICS. 5 ACCORDING TO
  5. 5. THE EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION  The Epidemiologic transition is that process by which the pattern of mortality and disease is transformed from one of high mortality among infants and children and episodic famine and epidemic affecting all age groups to one of degenerative and man-made diseases (such as those attributed to smoking) affecting principally the elderly. 6
  6. 6. Epidemiologic Transition? Back in 1971, Abdel Omran published a seminal paper where he posited his THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION 7 To characterize population change. The epidemiologic transition is a stage of development characterized by a shift in population growth, life expectancy and disease patterns. The 5 main points are listed below
  7. 7. THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION  Proposition One. The theory of epidemiologic transition begins with the major premise that mortality is a fundamental factor in population dynamics  Proposition Two. During the transition, a long-term shift occurs in mortality and disease patterns whereby pandemics of infection are gradually displaced by degenerative and man-made diseases as the chief form of morbidity and primary cause of death. 8
  8. 8. THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION  Proposition Three. During the epidemiologic transition the most profound changes in health and disease patterns obtain among children and young women  Proposition Four. The shifts in health and disease patterns that characterize the epidemiologic transition are closely associated with the demographic and socioeconomic transitions that constitute the modernization complex 9
  9. 9. THEORY OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION  Proposition Five. Peculiar variations in the pattern, the pace, the determinants and the consequences of population change differentiate three basic models of the epidemiologic transition: the classical or western model, the accelerated model and the contemporary or delayed mode (Basically there are differences in the rates of the transition depending on a number of different factors) 10
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  11. 11. Stage I: Pestilence and Famine  Infectious and parasite diseases were principle causes of death along with accidents and attacks by animals and other humans. Thomas Malthus called these caused of death “natural checks”  Most violent Stage I epidemic was the Black Plague(bubonic plague or black death) probably transferred to humans by fleas from infected rats 12
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  13. 13. Black Plague  Originated among Tatars in present day Kyrgyzstan  Diffused to present day Ukraine when Tatar army attacked an Italian trading post on the Black Sea  Italians fleeing carried the infected rats on ships west to major coastal cities of Southeastern Europe in 1347 14
  14. 14. continued  The plague diffused from the coast to inland towns and then to rural areas  It reaches Western Europe in 1348 and Northern Europe in 1349  25 million Europeans died from 1347 to 1350. This was one-half of the continents population.  In China, 13 million died from the plague in 1380. 15
  15. 15. 16 Main player
  16. 16. Stage II: Receding Pandemics  Improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine during the Industrial Revolution reduced the spread of infectious diseases.  Death rates did not improve immediately and universally during the early years of the Industrial Revolution.  Poor people who crowded into Industrial Cities had high death rates due to Cholera 17
  17. 17. Stage III: Degenerative Diseases  Associated with the chronic diseases of aging  Heart disease and cancer  Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have low incidences of cancer primarily because of low life expectancy. 18
  18. 18. Degenerative Diseases 19
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  20. 20. Stage IV: Delayed Degenerative  Life expectancy of older people is extended through medical advances.  Cancer medicines, bypass surgery, better diet, reduced use of tobacco, and alcohol  However, consumption of non-nutritious food and sedentary behavior have resulted in an increase in obesity in this stage. 21
  21. 21. Stage IV: Delayed Degenerative 22
  22. 22. Stage IV: Delayed Degenerative 23
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  24. 24. THANK YOU 25