Perfect Storm CACRAO 12-2011


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Keynote slides from 2011 Conference in Wilmington, NC

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Perfect Storm CACRAO 12-2011

  1. 1. Are You Ready to Weather the Admissions Perfect Storm?Jeff Kallay, VP Consulting, “Apostle of Authenticity” TargetX
  2. 2. Managing Expectation Overwhelm you with information I don’t have all the answers, you won’t agree with meYou’re educated and smart; take what is relevant to you The Perfect Storm How to weather and thrive Questions and Answers - See me at TargetX exhibit Download PDF at in
  3. 3. There is no magic bullet!
  4. 4. Recruitment and retention is everyone’s job!
  5. 5. The Perfect Storm
  6. 6. StudentDemographics
  7. 7. 4,300,00018-year olds in 2010
  8. 8. White 2,480,000 58%Latino 820,000 19%African-American 640,000 15%Asian 190,000 4%Other 170,000 4%
  9. 9. Under $25K 940,000 22%$25K to $50K 1,030,000 24%$50K to $75K 860,000 20%$75K to $100K 560,000 13%$100K to $150K 520,000 12%Over $150K 390,000 9%
  10. 10. Didn’t Finish High School 740,000 17%HS Grad-Not in School 1,070,000 25%HS Grad-Military Service 180,000 4%HS Grad-Going to College 2,310,000 54%
  11. 11. 4-Year Public Colleges 860,000 37%4-Year Private Colleges 450,000 20%4-Year Proprietary Colleges 70,000 3%2-Year Colleges 810,000 35%Other Schools 120,000 5%
  12. 12. High School or Less 1,540,000 36%Some College 1,380,000 32%One Bachelors Degree 690,000 16%Two Bachelors Degrees 350,000 8%Advanced Degree 340,000 8%
  13. 13. Questions We’re Asking How have you prepared for the decline? Have you prioritized the adult market?
  14. 14. GI Generation (’01-’24)Silent Generation (’25-’42) Baby-Boomers (’43-’60) Generation X (’61-’81) Millennials (’82-’00) Homeland or iGeneration (’00/’01-current)
  15. 15. MillennialLargest, most wanted, most watched over andmost diverse generation in American history. Howe and Strauss “Millennials Rising”
  16. 16. 76 Million Millennials(vs. 72 million Boomers and 42 million Xers) Howe and Strauss “Millennials Rising”
  17. 17. The Three “Kaitlins”Kaitlin Caitlin Kate Lynn
  18. 18. 2nd Cohort Millennial
  19. 19. Millennials Rebooted Regonize 2nd Cohort. Post Great Recession. Shift from Boomer Helicopter to Xer Stealth. Parents want ROI. Financial Aid knowledge is key! Cut through the hype.Online and In-Person support work in tandem.
  20. 20. ParentalInfluences
  21. 21. GI Generation (’01-’24)Silent Generation (’25-’42) Baby-Boomers (’43-’60) Generation X (’61-’81) Millennials (’82-’00) Homeland or iGen (2000-current)
  22. 22. Boomer Parents GenX ParentsBorn in 1982Graduate College High School Elementary School “New Silent Generation”
  23. 23. “A generation that can sneakily trump boomer X narcissism and millennial entitlement.” Jeff Gordiner, “X Saves the World: How Generation X Got the Shaft but Can Still Keep Everything from Sucking”
  24. 24. About Generation X Born and raised as independent latch-key kids. Sexual Revolution, Watergate, Vietnam, Gay Rights, High Divorce Rate, Recession and Woman’s Movement peppered their youth. Demonized by Hollywood: Rosemary’s Baby,The Exorcist, Taxi Driver, Pretty Baby and The Omen.
  25. 25. About Generation X Playing to win by half expecting to lose. Accepting wide gaps between personal outcomes and sex roles.Proud of their ability to cut through the hype.
  26. 26. About Generation XBecoming cautious in family life and gradually mellowing in personality. Dedicated to starting and maintaining stable families, something their Silent generation parents did not.
  27. 27. They are Stealthy
  28. 28. Questions We’re Asking Have you actively engaged parents? Have you promoted the ROI? Are graduate & continuing studies ready?
  29. 29. Economy
  30. 30. “Loan crisis goes to college.” CNN, May 2010“College loans are the new subprime crisis” New York Times, June 2010 (TargetX’s Trent Gilbert said this in April) “Credit crisis hits student borrowers.” The Boston Globe, April 2010
  31. 31. 46%Colleges with Students Stopping Out Impact of Economy on Enrollment, NAICU, October 2009
  32. 32. 22%Enrolling Fewer Returning Students Impact of Economy on Enrollment, NAICU, October 2009
  33. 33. 29%Smaller Freshman Classes than Expected Impact of Economy on Enrollment, NAICU, May 2010
  34. 34. Meeting Operating Expenses The Common Fund Freezes Paying Off or Pausing Capital Improvements Increased Discount Rate Largest Increase from Employee Benefits Frozen or Cut Professional Development Expenses Staff Reduction
  35. 35. How much of whatschools are offering can be called education?“College should be a cultural journey, an intellectual expedition, a voyage confronting new ideas and information, togetherexpanding and deepening our understanding of ourselves and our world.”
  36. 36. Questions We’re Asking Will students go to school closer to home? Will they “go away” to college? How will you encourage them to visit? How is your financial aid strategy adjusting?Are you prepared to answer cost questions earlier? How well trained are you (recruiters) on aid?
  37. 37. Questions We’re Asking Are you in Growth or Retreat Mode? What are you doing to cut costs? Will you (recruiting staff) travel less?
  38. 38. Weathering the Storm
  39. 39. 33 Ways to Weather and Thrive 1. Overthrow Dead Culture 2. Embrace Authenticity 3. The Experience IS the Marketing
  40. 40. 1. Overthrow Dead Culture
  41. 41. Change Adverse
  42. 42. Embrace the Tipping Point
  43. 43. Traditional Recruiting Undergraduate Recruiting in Junior Year Direct Mail Search Campaigns Letter Series-Based Communication Plans Viewbooks, Roadpieces, Department Brochures Large Open Houses, Info Sessions and Group ToursHigh School/Company Visits & College/Graduate Fairs
  44. 44. Where MostColleges Are Today Special Thanks to Bob McCullough, Case-Western Reserve University
  45. 45. The NewCommunication Plan
  46. 46. 81%Started their College Search Before their Junior Year Eduventures, 2009
  47. 47. 50%PSAT Takers Were in the 10th Grade or Earlier (2% in 8th Grade) College Board, 2008
  48. 48. 19%Started their College Search in Eighth Grade or Earlier! Eduventures, 2009
  49. 49. >45%First Point of Contact was the Admissions Application Informal TargetX Survey of Undergraduate Admissions Clients & Noel-Levitz E-Recruiting Practices Report, April 2010
  50. 50. 84%Students Spend Researching Colleges Online Harris Interactive, 2009
  51. 51. 84%Use the College’s Website Most Heavily in their Research Eduventures, 2008
  52. 52. Rethink the Budget Distribution Print vs. Web, On-Campus vs. OffStop the “have to” Activities (hint: start with travel) Avoid the many online marketing fads - calc ROI!Focus on what WILL work - Not what ALWAYS worked Doesn’t necessarily mean additional funding
  53. 53. Takeaway Preference for Electronic Communication Want Details on Cost and Financial AidDesire to Connect with Students and Faculty Use “New” Communication Tools
  54. 54. 2. Embrace Authenticity “We are searching to get a grip on what counts for people in their personal and business lives.” Pine and Gilmore’s website
  55. 55. Marketing Immunity 3,000-5,000 Daily Messages Neurological Blockades
  56. 56. 90%Trust Word-of-Mouth vs. Traditional Advertising Consumers 18-65 years old, Ad Age 2009
  57. 57. 64%Believe Advertising is “Dishonest” or “Unrealistic” Consumers 18-65 years old, Ad Age 2009
  58. 58. You are not in control
  59. 59. History of Higher Education Recruiting Trends 1980’s Marketing 1990’s Branding 2010’s Authenticity
  60. 60. I’m an OK lover, butafterwards I like to Me too!snuggle and talk. AUTHENTICITY
  61. 61. Brands are Mirrors. Branding only works when it’s authentic.We purchase on the basis of conforming to self-image.
  62. 62. Brand Analogy Car; Restaurant; or Retailer
  63. 63. InauthenticityThat is the fundamental problemwith advertising: it’s a phoniness generating machine.
  64. 64. InauthenticityThe easiest way to be perceivedas phony is to advertise things you are not.
  65. 65. Rendering Authenticity “Stop saying what your offerings are through advertising and start creating places--permanent or temporary, physical or virtual, fee-based or free--where people can experience what those offerings, as well as your enterprise, actually are.”
  66. 66. 6Six steps towards rendering authenticity
  67. 67. 1. Know who you areDon’t try to be all things to all people The Ohio State University
  68. 68. 2. Say who you are/declare something Draw a line in the sand Baylor University
  69. 69. 3. Hop on the Cluetrain (talk with, not at) "Markets are conversations.Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors. Conversations among human beings sound human. They are conducted in a human voice. University of Texas American University
  70. 70. 4. If you’re afraid to say it, say it“Average Students Thrive Here!”“80% of what I learned happened outside of the classroom.”
  71. 71. 5. Keep it real SACAC 2008 Survey of 200+ high school seniors“I believe that imperfections show character. Thats what I was looking for in a college. A school that seemingly has no flaws during a one hour information session (and tour) not only stands out negatively, but it comes off as bland and ordinary.” Read the complete survey results Password: sacac
  72. 72. 6. Champion stories (not statistics) St. Edward’s University
  73. 73. 3. The Experience IS the Marketing 1. Repelling commodization 2. Charging a premium price 3. Persuading consumers to pay when they never did before 4. Selling “Memories”
  74. 74. “The experience is the marketing.”Arts & Science Group Student Poll 2004
  75. 75. The experience is higher education marketing- 84% use the web most heavily in researching colleges- 71% say the campus visit is the most trusted source of informationEduventures 2007 Survey of 7,867 High school junior and seniors.Reported in The Chronicle of Higher Education “Prospective Students Rely on Campus Visits and Web Sites to Learn About Colleges, Report Says”
  76. 76. “Effectiveness”Noel-Levitz 2009
  77. 77. Campus Visit in Record #’s In Step with tradition: Campus Tours thriving
  78. 78. It’s all about the experience! Read the New York Times Article
  79. 79. Unique (and Authentic) Read the US News and World Report Article
  80. 80. Tour Guides Matter Read the St. Louis Post Dispatch Article
  81. 81. Campus Tour Go Disney Read the Washington Monthly Magazine
  82. 82. “I visited campus and it felt right!” LA Times Article: On vacation -- at a college campus
  83. 83. “I visited campus and it felt right!” But most college tour scripts are numbingly similar, and information is not really the point. Students and their families are looking for the ineffable moment when, through some alchemy of atmosphere, setting or vibe, they suddenly know this is the place for them. LA Times Article: On vacation -- at a college campus
  84. 84. Word of Mouth Text
  85. 85. “I visited campusand it felt right!”
  86. 86. Connect with best fit students Hendrix College
  87. 87. Let go Remember, you’re not in control. Remember, they don’t trust marketers. Remember, they are talking about you anyways. Remember, they want to figure out the truth.Remember, their parents are talking about you too.
  88. 88. Be a change agent!Don’t lead change because it makes sense. Lead change because you believe you must get ahead of an approaching “discontinuity” in order to survive. Jack and Suzy Welch, BusinessWeek, October 2008
  89. 89. Want More? Read Our Blogs: TargetX Blog at
  90. 90. Free on Friday Webcasts
  91. 91. Are You Ready to Weather the Admission Perfect Storm? Kallay, VP Consulting, “Apostle of Authenticity” TargetX @jeffkallay