連続的なリスクのどこに「線」を引くのか:米国EPAのPM2.5基準値改訂、その"正当化ロジック"を読む

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連続的なリスクのどこに「線」を引くのか:米国EPAのPM2.5基準値改訂、その"正当化ロジック"を読む

  1. 1. 2013/1/23 @FoRAM 連続的なリスクのどこに線を引くのか 米国EPAのPM2.5基準値改訂 その 正当化ロジック を読む 林岳彦 (国立環境研究所環境リスク研究センター)13年1月24日木曜日 1
  2. 2. そもそも:なぜ私が今回の発表をするのか 私ならどうやって 線 を引いただろうか? 放射線医学総合研究所HP( http://www.nirs.go.jp/information/qa/qa.php )より引用13年1月24日木曜日 2
  3. 3. そもそも:なぜ私が今回の発表をするのか http://crms.u-shizuoka-ken.ac.jp/cont/kouza/120/13年1月24日木曜日 3
  4. 4. そもそも:なぜ私が今回の発表をするのか ■PM2.5のリスクはとにかく高い ■その影響は閾値がなく連続的 ■EPAが昨年12月14日に基準改訂! EPAはどうやって 線 を 引いてるんだろう? http://crms.u-shizuoka-ken.ac.jp/cont/kouza/120/13年1月24日木曜日 4
  5. 5. そもそも:なぜ私が今回の発表をするのか 環境中動態 科学的知見 基準値 疫学 毒性学 今日はここの話13年1月24日木曜日 5
  6. 6. 今日の目次 1. イントロ - PM2.5とは? - 米国PM環境基準値の歴史 2. 2012年における基準値改訂を 読む - 新基準値決定までの流れ - 主要な7文書を読む(今回のメイン) - 議論:あなたならどこに 線 を引く?13年1月24日木曜日 6
  7. 7. 176 R. D. Brook PM2.5とは? Figure 1 Size, sources and composition of PM air pollution RBC, red blood cell; SVOC, semi-volatile organic carbons; UFP, ultra-fine particles; VOC, volatile organic carbons. Brook (2011) in Clinical Science 115, 175-187より引用13年1月24日木曜日 (cardiovascular) system [1–3]. In the present review, CV elemental carbon). Particle sizes range from clusters of 7
  8. 8. サイズが問題? 日本自動車工業会(2011) 「PM2.5 微小粒子状物質」より引用13年1月24日木曜日 8
  9. 9. その中身(成分)は何? 2.1.1.3 PM2.5(SASS) (2004~2008 ) 中央環境審議会大気環境部会 (2009) 「微小粒子状物質環境基準専門委員会報告(案)」より引用13年1月24日木曜日 9
  10. 10. どこから来るの? 国立環境研究所HP( http://www.nies.go.jp/kanko/kankyogi/05/06.html)より引用13年1月24日木曜日 10
  11. 11. どこから来るの? PRIMARY SECONDARY Aqueous phase reactions Organic Gas phase of dicarbonyls, organic acids Compounds reactions and ·OH, ·NO2, O3 of alkanes, aromatics, alkenes, olefins, etc Aerosol and ·OH, O3, NO2 phase Droplet reactions evaporation products products products Gas/particle partitioning Nucleation, sorption, condensation/evaporation Figure 3-4. Primary emissions and formation of SOA through gas, cloud and condensed phase reactions. It should be noted that many of the products of terpene oxidation are oxidative in nature, and US EPA merely nonreactive oxidation products. Organic peroxides represent an important class of are not (2009) Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter より引用 reactive oxygen species (ROS) that have high oxidizing potential and could cause oxidative stress in13年1月24日木曜日 11
  12. 12. どこから来るの? 60 上野(2010)都内のPM2.5環境の現状と発生源調査の状況について13年1月24日木曜日 12
  13. 13. どこから来るの? 東京都微小粒子状物質検討会報告書(2011)13年1月24日木曜日 13
  14. 14. M2.5 50 TEOM 環境中濃度は?:年平均値 2001 2008 2.1.1.1 2.1.1.1 PM2.5(50 TEOM)M2.5 中央環境審議会大気環境部会 (2009) 「微小粒子状物質環境基準専門委員会報告(案)」より引用13年1月24日木曜日 14
  15. 15. 環境中濃度は?:地点間のばらつき 2.1.1.7 PM2.5(SASS) (2008 ) 中央環境審議会大気環境部会 (2009) 「微小粒子状物質環境基準専門委員会報告(案)」より引用 2.1.1.7 PM2.5(SASS)13年1月24日木曜日 15
  16. 16. 環境中濃度は?:月間のばらつき 2.1.1.2 PM2.5(50 TEOM) (2001 2008 )1.2. 中央環境審議会大気環境部会 (2009) 「微小粒子状物質環境基準専門委員会報告(案)」より引用 13年1月24日木曜日 16
  17. 17. 環境中濃度は?:日間のばらつき 中央環境審議会大気環境部会 (2009) 「微小粒子状物質環境基準専門委員会報告(案)」より引用13年1月24日木曜日 17
  18. 18. 余談:中国の現状は深刻http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/report/20120306/229497/ http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20130114/k10014790051000.html13年1月24日木曜日 18
  19. 19. 余談:中国の現状は深刻 http://j.people.com.cn/94475/7700074.html13年1月24日木曜日 19
  20. 20. 余談:日本の過去の状況 70 ( (SPM) ) ( (SPM) ) 60 (PM2.5) 2.5) ( (PM (PM2.5) 2.5) 50 PM (PM2.5) 2.5 (µg/m3 ) 40 30 20 10 0 4.5.2.3 SPM PM2.5 SPM 中央環境審議会大気環境部会 (2009) 「微小粒子状物質環境基準専門委員会報告(案)」より引用 4.5.3.13年1月24日木曜日 20
  21. 21. 今日の目次 1. イントロ - PM2.5とは? - 米国PM環境基準値の歴史 2. 2012年における基準値改訂を 読む - 新基準値決定までの流れ - 主要な7文書を読む(今回のメイン) - 議論:あなたならどこに 線 を引く?13年1月24日木曜日 21
  22. 22. 米国の大気環境基準とは? ■ 法的位置づけ:Clean Air Actに基づき大気環境基準 (National Ambient Air Quality Standard: NAAQS) が設定される ■ 汚染物質の濃度が基準を超える場合には、基準達成の   ために排出物を削減する努力が要求される 尚、汚染防止や対策の主たる責任は州や地方政府 H19微小粒子状物質健康影響評価検討会(第一回) 資料2「欧米における粒子状物質に関する動向について」より引用13年1月24日木曜日 22
  23. 23. 米国PM環境基準値の歴史(数値編) 24 260 g/m3 (1971) TSP ( ) 75 g/m3 24 150 g/m3 1 (1987) PM10 ( ) 50 g/m3 * 24 65 g/m3 PM2.5 ( )* 15 g/m3 2 (1997) * 24 150 g/m3 PM10 ( )* 50 g/m3 * 24 35 g/m3 PM2.5 ( )* 15 g/m3 3 (2006) * 24 150 g/m3 PM10 * * 24 98 3 * 3 * 3 * 3 10% 2 24 0.9 H19微小粒子状物質健康影響評価検討会(第一回) 資料2「欧米における粒子状物質に関する動向について」より引用13年1月24日木曜日 23
  24. 24. 米国PM環境基準値の歴史(訴訟編) ■ 1987年:National Resources Defense Council vs EPA    PM10の第一次改訂は支持される ■ 1997年:American Track Association vs EPA PM2.5の基準値新設は一旦EPA敗訴    2001年に最高裁でEPA勝訴→PM2.5基準値認可 EPA is not permitted consider the cost of implementing NAAQS. 陪審員曰く... NAAQS should be neither more nor less stringent than necessary. ■ 2009年:American Farm Bureau Federation vs EPA PM2.5基準値に「差し戻し」の判決! EPA failed to adequately explain why the standard 陪審員曰く... provided the requisite protection from both of short- and long-term exposure to fine particles, including protection for at-risk populations such as children.13年1月24日木曜日 24
  25. 25. 今日の目次 1. イントロ - PM2.5とは? - 米国PM環境基準値の歴史 2. 2012年における基準値改訂を 読む - 新基準値決定までの流れ - 主要な7文書を読む(今回のメイン) - 議論:あなたならどこに 線 を引く?13年1月24日木曜日 25
  26. 26. 新基準値決定までの流れ 2008 [1] Integrated Review Plan for the NAAQS for PM 2009 [2] Integrated Science Assessment for PM CASAC2010 [3] Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for PM Review & Public2011 [4] Policy Assessment for the Review of the PM NAAQS Comm. 2012 [5] Responses to Significant Comments on the 2012 Proposed Rule on the NAAQS for PM [6] NAAQS for PM [7] Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Revisions to the NAAQS for PM13年1月24日木曜日 26
  27. 27. 今日の目次 1. イントロ - PM2.5とは? - 米国PM環境基準値の歴史 2. 2012年における基準値改訂を 読む - 新基準値決定までの流れ - 主要な7文書を読む(今回のメイン) - 議論:あなたならどこに 線 を引く?13年1月24日木曜日 27
  28. 28. [1] Integrated Review Plan for the NAAQS for PM Integrated Review Plan for the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter Finalized in 2008, pp8513年1月24日木曜日 28
  29. 29. [1] IRP:文書のミッション(超訳) ■ 基準値決定に至るまでの - スケジュール - 考慮すべき項目 - 考慮すべき項目へのアプローチの仕方 をspecifyする13年1月24日木曜日 29
  30. 30. 3 KEYLINKS TO OF CONTENTS.................................................................................. 18 TABLE OTHER NAAQSISSUES AND OTHER RELATED AGENCY ACTIVITIES .............13 2 1.5REVIEW SCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 16 1 POLICY-RELEVANT REVIEWS 12 3.1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................16 REVIEW SCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................. 1 KEY ISSUES RELATED TO THE PRIMARY PM NAAQS ..........................................................................18 1 3.2INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................18 3 1.1REVIEW SCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 16 POLICY-RELEVANT ISSUES .................................................................................. 3 3.1 1.2 [1] IRP:文書の構成 TABLE OFREQUIREMENTS...........................................................................................................3 CONTENTS OVERVIEW OF THE NAAQS REVIEW PROCESS...............................................................................2 2 1.1INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................. 1 OVERVIEW OF THE NAAQS REVIEW PROCESS...............................................................................2 ISSUES RELATED TO THE PRIMARY PM PM NAAQS ....................................................................21 POLICY-RELEVANT SECONDARY NAAQS ..........................................................................18 1 1.1 KEYISSUES RELATED TO THEISSUES .................................................................................. 18 LEGISLATIVE REQUIREMENTS...........................................................................................................3 OVERVIEW OF THE NAAQS REVIEW PROCESS...............................................................................2 1 1.2 LEGISLATIVE THE NAAQS REVIEW PROCESS...............................................................................2 4 1.1 SCIENCE ASSESSMENT OF PRIMARY PMPM PM .............................................................................5 3.1 3.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 OVERVIEW OF 3 1.2KEYLEGISLATIVEREVIEWS OFSECONDARYFORNAAQS ....................................................................21 HISTORY OF REVIEWS .................................................................................................. 18 POLICY-RELEVANT ISSUES .................................................................................. 23 ISSUES RELATED TO THE NAAQS ..........................................................................18 ISSUES RELATED TO THE THE NAAQS FOR PM .............................................................................5 HISTORY OF REQUIREMENTS...........................................................................................................3 THE NAAQS LEGISLATIVE REQUIREMENTS...........................................................................................................3 3.2 ISSUESRELATED TO THE THE NAAQS FOR PM ..........................................................................18 RELATED TO THE SECONDARY PM NAAQS ....................................................................21 1 1.3 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................. 1 3.1 ISSUES AND REVIEWS SCOPE OF THE CURRENT PRIMARY PM NAAQS.............................................................................5 4.1SCIENCE ASSESSMENTOF REVIEW...................................................................................................12 1.4 1.4 4 1.3 SCOPE OF THE CURRENT REVIEW...................................................................................................12 HISTORY OF ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 .................................................................................................. 23 3.2 HISTORY OFOF THE NAAQS REVIEWAND OTHER RELATED AGENCY ACTIVITIES .............13 OVERVIEW REVIEWS OF REVIEWS PROCESS...............................................................................2 THE NAAQS FOR PM .............................................................................5 1.5 1.1 4.2 1.5 4 1.4 SCOPE TO OTHER TO THE SECONDARY PM NAAQS ....................................................................21 ISSUESTO OTHER NAAQS REVIEWS AND OTHER RELATED AGENCY ACTIVITIES .............13 LINKS RELATED NAAQS ..................................................................................................................24 1.4 SCIENCE OF THEAPPROACHREVIEW...................................................................................................12 ASSESSMENT CURRENT LINKS ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 23 4.1 AND ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 SCOPE OF THEREQUIREMENTS...........................................................................................................3 1.2 1.5 LEGISLATIVE CURRENT REVIEW...................................................................................................12 LINKS TO OTHER PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................40 SCIENTIFIC AND NAAQS REVIEWS AND OTHER RELATED AGENCY ACTIVITIES .............13 4.3SCIENCESCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 23 4.1 2 1.3 LINKS TO OF ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 SCOPE AND 4 1.5 REVIEW SCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 16 2 4.2 REVIEW ASSESSMENT OFREVIEWS AND OTHER RELATED AGENCY ACTIVITIES .............13 REVIEWS .................................................................................................. 16 ASSESSMENT APPROACH ..................................................................................................................24 HISTORY OTHER NAAQS THE NAAQS FOR PM .............................................................................5 4.2 ASSESSMENT APPROACH ..................................................................................................................24 5 4.3REVIEW SCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 16 SCOPE AND AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................40 SCIENTIFIC ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 2 4.1REVIEW HEALTH RISK AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 16 1.4HUMAN SCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 41 3 4.3KEY SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC REVIEW...................................................................................................12 SCOPE OF THE CURRENTISSUES .................................................................................. 18 2 4.2 KEYASSESSMENT APPROACHISSUES .................................................................................. 18 POLICY-RELEVANT REVIEW ...................................................................................................40 3 5.1 POLICY-RELEVANT LINKS TO OTHER TO THE ..................................................................................................................24 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 1.5HUMAN HEALTH NAAQS REVIEWS AND OTHER..........................................................................18 RELATED AGENCY ACTIVITIES .............13 5 4.3KEY SCIENTIFIC ANDRISK AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 18 3 5.2 3.1 3.1 ISSUES .................................................................................. 41 POLICY-RELEVANT RISK ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW..........................................42 ISSUES RELATED TO THE PRIMARY PM NAAQS ..........................................................................18 ISSUES RELATED PRIMARY PM NAAQS 5 5.1 HUMAN HEALTH PUBLICISSUES .................................................................................. 18 3.2 OVERVIEW OF HEALTH REVIEW ...................................................................................................40 3 3.1KEYISSUES RELATEDRISK AND EXPOSURE NAAQS ....................................................................21 POLICY-RELEVANT ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 41 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 ISSUES RELATED TO THE PRIMARY PM NAAQS ..........................................................................18 ISSUES RELATED TO THE SECONDARY PM NAAQS ....................................................................21 3.2REVIEW SCHEDULE ........................................................................................................ 16 TO THE SECONDARY PM 2 3.1 5 3.2HUMANQUALITY CHARACTERIZATION PM PM NAAQS LAST REVIEW..........................................42 5.3 5.1 5.2 ISSUES RELATED TO THE PRIMARY ...............................................................................................44 AIR HEALTH RISK AND ASSESSMENT FROM ISSUES RELATED TO THE SECONDARY NAAQS ..........................................................................18 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 OVERVIEW OF HEALTH RISKEXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 41 ....................................................................21 4 3.2 SCIENCE ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 23 5.4SCIENCE ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 23 POPULATION EXPOSURERISK ASSESSMENT FROM ....................................................................21 ASSESSMENT PM NAAQS LAST REVIEW..........................................42 APPROACH ...................................................................45 3 5.1 KEYISSUES AND OF HEALTH ISSUES .................................................................................. 18 4 5.3 5.2 5.5 POLICY-RELEVANT SECONDARY .......................................................................................49 RELATED TO THE OVERVIEW AIR QUALITY CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................................................................44 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH 4 5.2SCIENCE ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 23 4.1 5.3 5.4 4.1 SCOPE ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 OVERVIEW OF CHARACTERIZATIONPM APPROACH ...................................................................45 SCOPE RELATED TO THE PRIMARY ...............................................................................................44 AIR QUALITY HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW..........................................42 POPULATION EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT NAAQS ..........................................................................18 ISSUES AND ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 3.1SCIENCE ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................. 23 4 4.1 5.6 4.2 5.4 5.5 4.2 BROADER RISK CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 HEALTH RISK APPROACH ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...................................................................45 ASSESSMENT APPROACH ..................................................................................................................24 SCOPE AND ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 ASSESSMENT EXPOSURE ..................................................................................................................24 POPULATION ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................49 5.3 3.2 4.1 AIR QUALITY CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................................................................44 ISSUES RELATED TO THE SECONDARY PM NAAQS ....................................................................21 SCOPE AND AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 5.7 4.3 4.2 SCIENTIFIC ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 ...................................................................................................40 ASSESSMENT EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...................................................................45 5.5 4.3 5.6 5.4 POPULATION APPROACH REVIEW ...................................................................................................40 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC ..................................................................................................................24 HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................49 BROADER RISK CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 4 4.3 VISIBILITY RISK APPROACHREVIEW ...................................................................................................40 4.2 ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................24 SCIENTIFICRISK CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 SCIENTIFIC AND RISK .................................................................................................. 23 BROADER AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 5.7SCIENCE ASSESSMENTAND APPROACH .......................................................................................49 5.6 PUBLIC 5 5.5 HUMAN HEALTH PUBLICWELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTS ............................ 41 HEALTH ANDASSESSMENT 6 4.3 HUMAN HEALTH RISK AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 55 OTHER REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLICREVIEW ...................................................................................................40 5 4.1 5.7 EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 41 SCIENTIFIC ORGANIZATION.............................................................................................................23 SCOPE AND AND 5.6HUMAN HEALTH CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 5.1 BROADER RISK RISK AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 41 5 6.1VISIBILITY AND OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTS ............................ 55 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 6 5.7HUMAN HEALTH RISK AND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 41 5.1 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 5 5.1 VISIBILITY AND VISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENTLAST REVIEW..........................................42 4.2 ASSESSMENT APPROACH ..................................................................................................................24 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLICRISK ASSESSMENT FROM ASSESSMENTS ............................ 55 6 6.1 5.2 6.2 5.2 OTHER REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 OVERVIEW OF HEALTH WELFARE-RELATED FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 OVERVIEW OF HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW..........................................42 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 4.3 5.1 5.3 6.3 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................40 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 5.2VISIBILITY ANDCHARACTERIZATION ...............................................................................................44 AIR QUALITY VISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 OVERVIEWAND OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 VISIBLITY OF HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW..........................................42 6.1 5.3 6.2 6 5.2 OVERVIEW OF CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................................................................44 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 AIR QUALITY OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTS ............................ 55 6.4 6.2 5.4 OVERVIEW OFEXPOSURE REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 POPULATION HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW..........................................42 5.3 HUMAN HEALTHVISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT ...................................................................45 5.4 POPULATION EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...................................................................45 SCIENTIFIC ANDRISK WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTLAST REVIEW............................55 OVERVIEW OF PUBLIC ASSESSMENT APPROACH FROM APPROACH ...............................60 AIR QUALITY CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................................................................44 5 5.3 6.3 6.1 VISIBLITY AND OTHERAND EXPOSURE ASSESSMENTS ....................................... 41 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 AIR QUALITY CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................................................................44 5.5 5.4 SCIENTIFIC OF ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................49 HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................49 POPULATION EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...................................................................45 5.1AMBIENT AIRAND OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 6.3 5.5 6.4 6.2 7 5.5 VISIBLITY AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 HEALTH RISK VISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................41 OVERVIEWRISK CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 5.4 5.6 6.4 5.6 5.2 6.3 SCIENTIFICOF OTHER RISK ......................................................................................... 63 MONITORING POPULATION EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...................................................................45 BROADER RISK CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................49 OVERVIEW AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 BROADER ANDHEALTHWELFARE-RELATEDFROM LAST REVIEW..........................................42 ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 VISIBLITY MONITORING ......................................................................................... 63 5.5AMBIENT AIR AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 7.1 7 5.6 5.7 5.7 HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................49 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................63 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 BROADER RISK CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 SCIENTIFIC 5.3 6.4 AIR QUALITY CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................................................................44 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 7 5.7 AMBIENT AIRANDCHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 5.6 7.2 HISTORICALMONITORING ......................................................................................... 63 BROADER RISK PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 7.1 SCIENTIFIC PERSPECTIVE................................................................................................................63 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................63 6 5.7 VISIBILITY ANDISSUES RELATED TO THEAPPROACH ...................................................................45 5.4 7.3 7.1 MONITORING EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT PM NAAQS...................................................................65 POPULATION 7.2AMBIENT AIR AND PUBLICWELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTS ............................ 63 HISTORICAL OTHER REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 SCIENTIFIC PERSPECTIVE................................................................................................................63 55 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................63 7 5.5 MONITORING ......................................................................................... 55 HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACH .......................................................................................49 6 7.3VISIBILITY ANDPERSPECTIVE................................................................................................................63 6.1 6.1 7.2 MONITORING OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTS ............................ OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 HISTORICAL ISSUES RELATED TO THE PM NAAQS...................................................................65 6 6.1 POLICY ASSESSMENT/ RELATED TO THE ........................................................................ 71 7.1VISIBILITY AND OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTS ............................ 55 8 5.6 6.2 6.2 7.3 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................63 OVERVIEW OFISSUES RULEMAKING PM NAAQS...................................................................65 BROADER RISKVISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 MONITORING CHARACTERIZATION............................................................................................53 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 OVERVIEW OF VISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 7.2 6.1 5.7 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE................................................................................................................63 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 SCIENTIFICAND OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 VISIBLITY AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................54 8 6.2 POLICY ASSESSMENT/ RULEMAKING ........................................................................ 71 6.3 OVERVIEWAND OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 6.3REFERENCESOF VISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 VISIBLITY .................................................................................................................... 9 6.3 POLICY ASSESSMENT/ RULEMAKINGPM NAAQS...................................................................65 7.3 8 6.2 6.4 MONITORING ISSUES RELATED TO THE ........................................................................ 72 VISIBLITY ANDVISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 OVERVIEW OF OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 71 6.4 SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 6 6.4 REFERENCESANDOTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 9 6.3 VISIBILITY AND OTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENTS ............................ 72 VISIBLITY .................................................................................................................... SCIENTIFICAND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 55 APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................... 77 8 6.4POLICY ASSESSMENT/ RULEMAKING ........................................................................ 71 9 REFERENCES MONITORING ......................................................................................... 63 SCIENTIFIC .................................................................................................................... 72 7 6.1AMBIENT AIRAND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................55 APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................... 63 OVERVIEW MONITORING ......................................................................................... 77 7 6.2AMBIENT MATTER INTEGRATED SCIENCE ASSESSMENT - PROPOSED OUTLINE ....................77 PARTICULATEAIR OF VISIBILITY-RELATED ASSESSMENT FROM LAST REVIEW............................55 7.1 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................63 9 PARTICULATE AIR .................................................................................................................... 63 REFERENCES MONITORING ......................................................................................... 72 APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................... 77 7 7.1AMBIENT MATTEROTHER WELFARE-RELATED ASSESSMENT APPROACH ...............................60 6.3 7.2 VISIBLITY AND INTEGRATED SCIENCE ASSESSMENT - PROPOSED OUTLINE ....................77 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................63 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE................................................................................................................63 PARTICULATE MATTER INTEGRATED SCIENCE PM NAAQS...................................................................65 7.1 7.2 6.4 7.3 MONITORING ISSUES RELATED TO THE ASSESSMENT - PROPOSED OUTLINE ....................77 OVERVIEW.............................................................................................................................................63 HISTORICALAND PUBLIC REVIEW ...................................................................................................62 SCIENTIFIC PERSPECTIVE................................................................................................................63 APPENDIX A............................................................................................................................... 77 7.2 7.3 MONITORINGPERSPECTIVE................................................................................................................63 HISTORICAL ISSUES RELATED TO THE ASSESSMENT - PROPOSED OUTLINE ....................77 PARTICULATE MATTER INTEGRATED SCIENCE PM NAAQS...................................................................6513年1月24日木曜日8 7 POLICY ASSESSMENT/ RULEMAKING ........................................................................ 71 AMBIENT AIR MONITORING ......................................................................................... 63 30
  31. 31. [1] IRP Ch2:今後のタイムスケジュール案 Table 2-1. Proposed Schedule for Development of PM Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) and Review of PM2.5 and PM10 NAAQS Stage of Review Major Milestone Target Dates Integrated Plan Literature Search Ongoing Federal Register Call for Information June 2007 Workshops on Science/Policy Issues July 2007 Prepare Draft Integrated Review Plan October 2007 CASAC Consultation November 2007 Prepare Final Integrated Review Plan March 2008 Science Prepare First Draft ISA September 2008 Assessment CASAC/Public Review of First Draft ISA December 2008 Prepare Second Draft ISA March 2009 CASAC/Public Review of Second Draft ISA May 2009 Prepare Final ISA September 2009 Risk/Exposure Prepare Draft Scope and Methods Plan October 2008 Assessments CASAC Consultation on Scope and Methods Plan December 2008 Prepare First Draft Risk/Exposure Assessments April 2009 CASAC/Public Review of First Draft Risk/Exposure May 2009 Assessments Prepare Second Draft Risk/Exposure Assessments November 2009 CASAC/Public Review of Second Draft Risk/Exposure January 2010 Assessments Prepare Final Risk/Exposure Assessments March 2010 Policy Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) June 2010 Assessment/ CASAC Review/Public Comment on ANPR August 2010 Rulemaking Proposed Rulemaking January 2011 Final Rulemaking October 201113年1月24日木曜日 31
  32. 32. oracic coarse particles in the ambient air. This evaluation of the available scientific evidence [1] IRPpolicy-relevant issues by addressing a series of questions including thell focus on key Ch3:キーとなるpolicy-relevant issueの特定llowing: 3 KEY POLICY-RELEVANT ISSUES Has new information policy-relevant issues to be addressed in this review are presented below as occurrence of health The key altered the body of scientific support for the a series of policy-relevant questions that will frame our approach to determining whether the effects following short- secondary NAAQS for PM should be retainedtorevised. The ISA and and thoracic coarse current primary and and/or long-term exposure or levels of fine risk/exposure assessments to be conducted in this review will provide the basis for addressing particles found questions. ambienttoair? questions, and the resulting conclusions regarding the these in the The answers these corresponding policy-relevant issues, will inform the policy assessment/rulemaking that will lead Has new information altered conclusions from previous reviews regarding the plausibility to the decision of whether to retain or revise the current 24-hour and annual primary and of adverse health effects associated with exposures to PM2.5, PM10,10PM10-2.5, or secondary standards for PM2.5 and the 24-hour primary and secondary standards for PM . alternative PM indicators thatcategories of particle18 In the last PM NAAQS review, EPA focused on particle mass and primarily distinguished between two might be considered? on size (i.e., fine- and coarse- pollution based What evidence is particles), and conductedrecentevaluations offocused on specific size fractions, fraction available from parallel studies the available scientific evidence relating to each category. The importance of specific PM components and sources was evaluated within chemical components, sources, or environments (e.g., urban andextent to the context of this basic size differentiation. In this review, EPA will consider the non-urban areas) of PM to inform our understanding of the available toof PM exposures particle are linked to various which new information has become nature assess and determine how that pollution is defined. Specific characteristics to consider will include particle size/mass, composition, and health outcomes? sources/environments (e.g., urban and rural areas). This information will inform decisions related to whether sufficient evidence exists to warrant consideration of alternative indicators for To what extent and,key scientific evidence becoming available to improve our PM, is if appropriate, the development of new NAAQS. understanding of the health effects THE PRIMARY PMvarious time periods of PM exposures, 3.1 ISSUES RELATED TO associated with NAAQS The first step in reviewing the adequacy of the current primary PM standards is to including not onlywhether the available body ofor multi-day)assessedchronicand addressed in years) consider short-term (daily scientific evidence, and in the ISA (months to exposures, but air quality and risk/exposure assessments, supports or calls into question the scientific extent is critical the also peak PM exposures (less than 24-hour)? To what 13年1月24日木曜日 conclusions reached in the last review regarding health effects related to exposure to fine and 32
  33. 33. [2] Integrated Science Assessment for PM December 2009 EPA/600/R-08/139F Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter Includes Errata Sheet created on 2/10/2010 Finalized in 2009 1071pp + Annex1157pp National Center for Environmental Assessment-RTP Division Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC13年1月24日木曜日 33
  34. 34. [2] ISA:文書のミッション(超訳) ■ PM2.5に関する科学的知見の網羅的レビュー - 因果的な健康影響の特定(→後のエンドポイント) - 研究の質の吟味とキースタディの特定13年1月24日木曜日 34

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