Risk analysis

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Risk analysis

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Risk analysis

  1. 1. Risk Analysis<br />
  2. 2. What may happen?<br />
  3. 3. What Risk Analysis Can Do?<br />Helps in<br />Forecasting any unwanted situation<br />Estimating damage potential of such situation<br />Decision making to control such situation<br />Evaluating effectiveness of control measures<br />
  4. 4. Procedure for Risk Analysis <br />
  5. 5. Procedure for Risk Analysis <br />Now the Risk Ranking of particular activity / aspect can be evaluated with the help of 'Risk Ranking Chart', as illustrated below:<br />Risk Ranking = (Severity of Consequence) × (Likelihood or Occurrence)<br />
  6. 6. Risk<br />The probability of suffering a harm or loss. It is a combination of hazard and Probability<br />Risk = Probability of occurrence of hazard X magnitude of hazard<br />
  7. 7. Types and Measurement of Risks<br />Type of Risks<br /><ul><li>Background risk
  8. 8. Incremental risk
  9. 9. Total risk</li></ul>Measurement of Risk<br /><ul><li>Individual Risk
  10. 10. Societal Risk </li></li></ul><li>Individual Risk<br />Risk posed by an individual <br />It is generally measured in time domain for a particular type of hazard. <br />Risk of Death due to fire in an industry = 1.0E-05 /yr <br />
  11. 11. Societal Risk<br />Risk for a group of people<br />It is measured in terms of number of people poses particular risk for a given period of time.<br />Risk of Death to 10 workers due to fire in an industry = 1.0E-09 /yr/10 persons <br />
  12. 12. Acceptable Risk<br />Risk that’s acceptable to regulatory agency and also to the public <br />Level of Risk of Death Per Year <br />(voluntarily acceptable by public)<br />Smoking 30 cigarettes per day 1 in 200<br />Man aged 35-44 1 in 600<br />Motor Vehicle Accident 1 in 10 000<br />Accident at home 1 in 12 000<br />Rail accident 1 in 420 000<br />
  13. 13. Acceptable Risk Criteria<br />UK Health and Safety Executive Criteria: FAR (Fatality Accident Rate)<br />Number of fatality in life time working in an industry<br />FAR = (Number of fatalities)*108/(Total hours worked by all employees during period covered)<br />Acceptable FAR value 1.0<br />
  14. 14. Acceptable Risk Criteria<br />US EPA<br />For carcinogens/or other eventsa lifetime risk of 1 in million (1.0E-06) is defined as acceptable<br />For non-carcinogens a hazard index less than 1.0 is defined acceptable<br />

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