Political Science 2 – Comparative Politics - Power Point #10


Published on

Political Science 2 – Comparative Politics - Spring 2013 - Power Point Presentation #10 - © 2013 Tabakian, Inc.

Published in: Education
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Political Science 2 – Comparative Politics - Power Point #10

  1. 1. Dr. Tabakian’s Political Science 2 Modern World Governments – Fall 2012Power Point Presentation – October 30th & November 1st
  2. 2. COURSE LECTURE TOPICSThis Week’s Lecture Covers:•Iran Current Policy Challenges Institutions Of The Islamic Republic Elections And Parties Political Culture Political Socialization Recruiting The Political Elite Interest Articulation And Aggregation Policy Formulation Policy Outcomes
  3. 3. COURSE LECTURE: WEEK #10 (2)•India Current Policy Challenges The Twin Legacies Of Colonial rule And The Anti- Colonial Movement The “Givens” Of Indian Society Political Institutions And The Policy Process Federal Structure Articulation Of Interests Party System Political Socialization And Political Culture Political Recruitment Policies To Address The Economy, Welfare, Poverty Democracy And Development
  4. 4. COUNTRY BIO: IRAN (1)
  5. 5. COUNTRY BIO: IRAN (2)• Population: • Language: – 66.3 million – Persian, regional languages• Territory: • Religion: – Twelver Shiite Muslim 90%, Sunni – 636,296 sq. miles Muslim 10%, non-Muslims less• Year of Independence: than 1% – 550 B.C.• Year of Current Constitution: – 1979, amended in 1989• Head of State: – Ali Khamenei• Head of Government: – Mahmud Ahmadinejad
  7. 7. BACKGROUND: ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN (1)• World’s only theocracy – A form of government in which ideally all laws are grounded in religion and express the will of God, and the clergy exercises supreme power
  8. 8. BACKGROUND: ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN (2)• Established in 1979 – A few months after a popular revolution uniting poor and middle- class, religious and secular people overthrew Mohammad-Reza Shah Pahlavi – the last ruler of the country’s ancient monarchy. – Ruholla Khomeini – charismatic clerical leader who had authored a blueprint for theoretic government in the 1970s, led the 1979 revolution • Opposed democracy on religious grounds • Sovereignty belongs to god alone • Divine law, know as the shari’a, as interpreted and applied by the ulema (religious scholars in the Muslim world) takes precedence over laws made by human legislators.
  9. 9. BACKGROUND: ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN (3)• Developed a very lively political system after Khomeini’s death in 1989 – Presidential, parliamentary, and local elections offer Iranian citizens a choice of candidates advocating differing policies. – One of many paradoxes found in Iran
  10. 10. CURRENT POLICY CHALLENGES (1)• Iran is the first country in which Islamists have had to deliver on the promises of a society characterized by social justice and moral propriety.• During the first decade of the Islamic Republic – Some redistribution of wealth – New leadership came mostly from humble or middle-class backgrounds and adopted populist policies that somewhat bettered the lot of the poorest. • Rural development • Health • Women’s education • Roads – Poverty, inequality, and underemployment continue to be major public grievances.
  11. 11. CURRENT POLICY CHALLENGES (2)• Job creation has been very inadequate.• Need to increase economic output. – Population grows by one million a year. • Discontent spurred out migration from the country – One in four Iranians with higher education live abroad – Subsequently, Iranians often have family abroad in the U.S., Canada, and Europe• Corruption• Dissatisfaction with the status quo among some of Iran’s ethnic minorities
  12. 12. HISTORICAL LEGACY (1)• Never formally colonized by Europeans• Borders arise from historical balance of power between its shahs and their neighboring rules.• Current Iranian state was set up in the early 16th century by the Safavid dynasty. – Establishment of Twelver Shiism as the official state religion and the conversion of most Iranians who had been Sunnis to Shiism – Political center of the Shiite world
  13. 13. HISTORICAL LEGACY (2)• Twelver Shiism – Split between Sunnis (90% of all Muslims) and the Shiites came about after the death of the founder of Islam, the Prophet Muhammad – Shiites believed that descendants of the Prophet could be the only rightful successors/leaders-- Imams. • Third Imama, Husayn, whose martyrdom in 680 C.E. symbolizes for Shiites for the struggle of the just against the unjust. • Most Shiites believe the Twelfth Imam was the last of the Imam, thus their name. – Believe he is alive and will come forth and show himself to establish a just rule at the end of time – He is a messiah-like figure. – Role and function of the ulema
  14. 14. HISTORICAL LEGACY CONSTITUTIONAL IN IRAN (1)• In 1905 widespread dissatisfaction with the way the country was governed• Led to a popular movement that would rest the constitution from the shah in December 1905• Shiite ulema played major role in the constitutional movement• Powers of the monarchy needed to be curtailed
  15. 15. HISTORICAL LEGACY CONSTITUTIONAL IN IRAN (2)• Believed the citizenry had the right to elect a representative parliament• Shah could name a prime minister only in agreement with parliament.• Parliament could hold the government accountable.• Constitutionalist ulema found ways to justify them in Islamic terms. – Ayatollah Muhammad-Husayn Na’inni • His argument implied the novel idea that as long as the Twelfth Imam chose to remain in hiding, the believers themselves were his deputies. • Reconciled Shiism’s core beliefs with modern notions of constitutionalism and is a legacy that the revolutionaries of 1979 could not ignore as they set out to create an Islamic state.
  16. 16. HISTORICAL LEGACY: THE PAHLAVI MONARCHY (1)• In a 1907 secret agreement Britain and Russia divided Iran into two spheres of influence.• During WWI, belligerents repeatedly violated Iran’s neutrality and fought each other on Iranian territory. – Created strife in Iran HISTORICAL LEGACY: THE PAHLAVI MONARCHY
  17. 17. HISTORICAL LEGACY: THE PAHLAVI MONARCHY (2)• 1921 coup d’etat put an end to the rule of the old establishment• Between 1941 and 1953 Iran’s political system included three main camps: – Pro-Western conservative establishment (Shah and landlords) – Pro-Soviet communist Tudeh party – Neutralist National Front, which aimed at establishing the full rule of law within the country and consolidating its standing among nations. • Mohammad Mossadegh: nationalizing the Iranian oil industry • British plotted his overthrow; accomplished with the help of the U.S. Central Intelligence (CIA) in August 1953
  18. 18. HISTORICAL LEGACY: THE PAHLAVI MONARCHY (3)• Reverted to royal autocracy as the second ruler of the Pahlavi dynasty (1963) – White Revolution • Land reform and granting suffrage to women • Westernizing policies – Traditionalists rioted • New opposition: Ruhollah Khomeini – Riots suppressed with violence – Khomeini arrested and exiled: settled in Najaf in Iraq until 1978 when he was expelled by Saddam Hussein until his triumphant return to Iran in 1979
  19. 19. HISTORICAL LEGACY: THE PAHLAVI MONARCHY (4)• Demands for free elections• Shah’s regime increasingly contested at home but it continued to receive support from the West in general and in the U.S. in particular – Opposition to the Shah also became opposition to the U.S. – Evidence suggests that Shah was successful at manipulating U.S. policymakers to achieve his ends rather than it being the other way around.
  20. 20. HISTORICAL LEGACY: THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION & THE IRAN / IRAQ WAR (1) • 1977 Jimmy Carter – president of the U.S. – Focus on human rights • Shah had terminal cancer; began liberalizing Iran’s political system – Groups pushed for greater reforms • Revolutionary uprisingCAL LEGACY: THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION – Khomeini & THE IRAN IRAQ WAR • 1979 New Constitution • Maintained a parliament elected by universal suffrage • Shah replaced by an elected president • Principle of velayat-e faqih “guardianship of the jurisprudence”
  21. 21. HISTORICAL LEGACY:THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION & THE IRAN / IRAQ WAR (2)• 1979 to 1981 – Competition for power; violence – Khomeini gains the upper hand and began instituting Islamic law in all spheres of public life.• Iran-Iraq War• Legacy of Oil Wealth: A Rentier State – Sustain themselves independently of social pressures and powerful interest groups
  23. 23. INSTITUTIONS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC (1) • Multiple power centers • LeaderUTIONS Highest authority in the Islamic Republic – OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC • Combines religious and temporal authority – Assembly of Experts • Choose the Leader • President – Elected by universal suffrage every four years – Must be a Twelver Shiite and a male; does not have to be a cleric
  24. 24. INSTITUTIONS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC (2)• Parliament – Unicameral, the Majles, comprises about 290 members – Must be Muslims but the Constitution provides for five members of Parliament to represent Christians (3), Jews (one) and Zoroastrians (one) – Two features of the political system seriously limit the Majle’s legislative role. • Many policies, rules, and regulations are set by unelected specialized bodies. • All its bills are subject to the veto of the Council of Guardians.
  26. 26. INSTITUTIONS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC (1)• Council of Guardians – Six members of the ulema and six lay Muslim lawyers. – Ulema appointed by the Leader; lawyers nominated by the Judiciary but approved by the Parliament
  27. 27. INSTITUTIONS OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC (2)• Expediency Council – “A council for determination of what is in the interest of the regime” – Collective body for arbitration of conflict – Anchored in constitutional revision of 1989 – Leader appoints over 30 members of this council – Help the leader formulate overall state policy• An honestly undemocratic Constitution• Multiple power centers
  29. 29. ELECTIONS AND PARTIES• The Pre-revolutionary legacy – Very limited competitive elections – Suffrage for women – Minimum voting age 15• Post-revolutionary parties – Islamic Republican Party • Factionalism • Khomeini could arbitrate • Ideological differences became the basis of factional politics – 1990s • Khatami’s election; more political parties appeared on the scene
  30. 30. ELECTIONS AND PARTIES (1)• Presidential elections – 1980 first ever presidential election • Victory of a lay Islamist: Banisadr – Impeached by Parliament and deposed by Khomeini in 1981 • His successor and prime minister killed by a bomb two months later – The next four elections: Khomeini associates • Result: participation went down – Khatami – “outsider”; appealed to those who had been humiliated by the regime • Promised greater cultural openness and personal freedom • 2005 elections: arch conservative mayor of Tehran, Mahud Ahmadinejad – Some question as to voter fraud allegations
  31. 31. ELECTIONS AND PARTIES (2)• Parliamentary elections – Divided into multimember constituencies – Largest is Tehran with 30 MPs – Each voter can write down the names of as many candidates as there are seats in a constituency. – Top vote-getters in each constituency are elected provided they receive over 50% of the total vote. – Second round determines the remaining MPs from among the runner-ups.
  33. 33. ELECTIONS AND PARTIES (1)• Elections of 2004 • Council of Guardians disallowed about 2,000 reformist candidates, including about 80 sitting MPS (unprecedented) – Call for a boycott of the election – 50% of the population still went to the polls
  34. 34. ELECTIONS AND PARTIES (2)• Local elections – Constitution of 1906 provided for elected local government councils but these were never constituted. – Similar provision of the 1979 Constitution first put into action in 1999. • Iranians for the first time went to the polls to elect city, town, and village councils. • Reformists won control over most councils; stymied by conservatives • Voters stopped participating. • Elections in 2003 – only 15 turnout in Tehran- even though the freest election in Iranian history. Mostly conservatives voted. Result: very conservative council • December 2006 new elections – Participation increased; Ahmadinejad conservatives won only a few seats; rebuke for the President’s handling of the economy.
  35. 35. POLITICAL CULTURE (1)• System level – Iranian nationalism/ancient Persia – Vanguard of the Islamic world’s struggle against Western domination – Ethic nationalism has become stronger among Iran’s non-Persian populations – “right” to develop nuclear energy • Government used this issue to shore up their legitimacy.
  36. 36. POLITICAL CULTURE (2)• Process level – Islamic revolution increased participation in politics – Some disaffected – Extreme individualism and lack of trust of government • Long history of despotism – Periodic emergence of charismatic leaders
  37. 37. POLITICAL CULTURE (3)• Policy level – Oil- Iranians have tended to expect the state to provide welfare and material well-being for everybody and alleviate the gap between rich and poor. – Corruption – Suspicion of private enterprise – Populism
  38. 38. POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION• Educational system• The military• Religion and religious institutions• Mass media• Family and social groups
  42. 42. RECRUITING THE POLITICAL ELITE• Who governs Iran? – Under the Shah • Small class of educated and secular Iranians who had personal loyalty to the monarch – Under the Islamic Republic • Personalism • Revolutionary pedigrees • Clergy recruited into the state • Nonclerical parliamentarians and ministers tend to emerge from educational and military institutions • Many of the new elite have come from the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij. • Kinship ties
  43. 43. INTEREST ARTICULATION AND AGGREGATION• Forms of interest articulation and aggregation – Noninstitutional • Clientelism and patron-client networks – Institutional • Voting • Weakness of party organizations – Unable to maintain party organization and formalized links to the citizenry• Institutionalized groups• Professional organizations• Nonassociational social groups• Demonstrations and public protests
  44. 44. POLICY FORMULATION (1)• State institutions mentioned in the Constitution – In theory, no state policy may contradict Islam, so those who determine this have a preponderant voice in setting policy. • The Leader • The Expediency Council • The National Security Council • The Council of Guardians • Executive branch and parliament
  45. 45. POLICY FORMULATION (2)• State institutions not mentioned in the Constitutions – Supreme council for the Cultural Revolution• Power centers and the difficulty of coordination – Multiple power centers so policies are often not coordinated – Judiciary – Revolutionary Guards
  46. 46. POLICY FORMULATION (3)• Economic policymaking – One of the most contentious topics • 1980s liberal approach: private sector and market mechanisms • Mixed results • Led to hardship and therefore faced opposition • Khatami’s efforts limited due to economic foundations’ and parastatal organizations’ autonomous and privileged access to resources and markets.
  48. 48. POLICY OUTCOMES• Incoherent policies – Sometimes paralysis – Example of cultural policy: banning of music• Spreading progress and prosperity – State educational system astonishingly good • Science and literacy – Birth control – Health care – Roads and the provision of basic services
  50. 50. POLICY OUTCOMES: ISLAMICIZATION OF SOCIETY• Alcohol consumption banned except for the non-Muslim minorities• Veiling enforced in public spaces• State committed in theory to the minimizing contact between unrelated men and women• Religious content of education is vastly expanded• Gruesome physical punishment to chastise adulterers, homosexuals, and other offenders of religious morality• Outwardly a success; but underneath the surface – bootlegging, prostitution (driven by poverty), over 2 million Iranians are drug addicts, corruption• Religious practice has become more private – Anticlericalism
  51. 51. POLICY OUTCOMES: GENDER RELATIONS• Legal restrictions on women’s rights• Many ad hoc discriminations instituted by the Islamic Republic – Fields of study closed to women – Women’s sports restricted; attire incompatible with veiling• Women increasing their participation in public life• Many are working outside of the home• 60% of the student body at universities’ restrictions on what they can study having been gradually lifted• More novels- written by women• Women compete in sports but at locations to which men are not admitted• Mal-veiling• Islamic feminism
  52. 52. POLICY OUTCOMES: FOREIGN POLICY• Under the Shah – U.S. an ally• 1990s “national interest”• Third Worldist – Desire to escape the hegemony of Western world• Main issue confronting current Iranian diplomacy is the nuclear program.
  53. 53. IRAN AND ITS CHALLENGES• Faced many challenges and has survived• Reopening of the debate: What is the proper relation between religion and politics in Iran?
  54. 54. COUNTRY BIO: INDIA (1)
  55. 55. COUNTRY BIO: INDIA (2)• Population: • Language: – 1,103,37 billion (2005) – English, Hindi (primary tongue of 30%• Territory: of the people), Bengali, Telugu, – 1,269,338 sq. miles Marathi, Tamil, Urdu, Gujarati, Malayalam, Kannada, Oriya, Punjabi,• Year of Independence: Assamese, Kasmiri, Sindhi, Sanskrit – 1947 – Note: There are 24 languages, each of• Year of Current Constitution: which is spoken by a million or more – 1950 people• Number of Constitutional Amendments: • Religion: – 93 (as of April 2006) – Hindu 80.5%, Muslim 13.4%, Christian• Head of State: 2.3%, Sikh 1.9%, Buddhist 0.8%, Jain 0.4%, other 0.6% (Census 2001) – President A.P.J. Abdul Kalem • Scheduled Castes• Head of Government: – 16.2% of population – Prime Minister Manmohan Singh • Scheduled Tribes – 8.2% of population
  56. 56. BACKGROUND• Poverty and underdevelopment• New sense of optimism• Integration into a global market economy – But will it bring sustained growth• Good case for cross-cultural comparisons of the transition to democracy – Has democratic political system – Secular constitution – Liberalized but still mixed economy – Mass poverty – Complex ethnic composition
  57. 57. CURRENT POLICY CHALLENGES• New international environment has posed a sharp challenge to India’s traditional policy of non-alignment – Panchasheela• Indo-Pakistani rivalry – source of great anxiety – Potential for nuclear war – 1998 nuclear tests – Series of negotiations and confidence-building measures – Kashmir• Key strategic partner with U.S. – South Asia policy• Poverty• Mass literacy – Few elite institutions: IIT, IIM – No infrastructure for mass literacy – Education is the responsibility of India’s regional governments• Infrastructure problems in road transport and shipping facilities
  58. 58. THE TWIN LEGACIES OF COLONIAL RULE AND THE ANTI-COLONIAL MOVEMENT• Historical controversies – Highly organized feudal state in India versus “segmentary” early state• Colonial rule• Mahatma Gandhi – Satyagraha – nonviolent resistance – Cross-community coalitions – Hindi-Muslim unity – Indian National Congress – India Act of 1935• Impact of British rule on India – Congress Party• India became independent in 1947 – Jawaharlal Nehru- India’s first prime minister
  59. 59. THE “GIVENS” OF INDIAN SOCIETY: FROM HIERARCHY TO PLURALITY (1)• Religious diversity and political conflict – Hindu’s divided – Jammu and Kashmir have Muslim majority – Punjab has a Sikh majority – Several other small states have a Christian majority – Ayodhya – Hindu nationalism – Partition of British India and the creation of Pakistan – Sikhism• Castes and politics – Jatis – basic social units that still govern marriages, social networks, food taboos, and rituals in India – In the past it regulated the choice of occupation: hereditary and caste-specific – More than 2,000 jatis in India; divided into four varnas • The Brahmins – priests • Kshatriyas – rulers and warriors • Vaisyas – mercantile class • Sudras – service groups, agriculturists, and artisans – Dharma – Dalits
  60. 60. THE “GIVENS” OF INDIAN SOCIETY: FROM HIERARCHY TO PLURALITY (2)• Language – Key component of identity – Divided into two main groups: Indo-Aryan languages of the North and the Dravidian languages of the South – Largest single language is Hindi, which, along with English, is recognized as an official language of India.• Social Class – Did not develop a revolutionary peasant movement – Industrial working class is quite small and only a fraction is unionized – Middle peasant cultivators – Pressures of mechanization; more landless
  63. 63. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND THE POLICY PROCESS• Like many former British colonies, India adopted a parliamentary democracy – Has survived many challenges including political change, societal change and wars – Decentralization of power; devolution; rule of five• The President – Designed with the British monarch in mind; in practice, the office combines ceremonial roles with some substantive powers – Power formally vested in the president, and he is expected to exercise these powers on the advice of the Council of Ministers, with the prime minister at its head.• The Prime Minister – Controls and coordinates the departments of government and determines policy through the submission of a program for parliamentary action – If he commands a majority in the Lok Sabha, his government is secure.
  65. 65. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND THE POLICY PROCESS: PARLIAMENT• Upper House – the Rajya Sabha (the Council of States) has some features of the U.S. Senate (India is a federation)• Lower House – Lok Sabha (House of the People) – 545 members; 543 are directly elected and two are nominated by the president of India as representatives of the Anglo-Indian community – Simple majority; single member constituencies; 5 year term; can be dissolved – Guaranteed representation of former untouchables and trials in the Lok Sabha – “reserved seats”• Designed to be an instrument of democratic accountability
  68. 68. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND THE POLICY PROCESS: PARLIAMENT• Zero hour• Ultimate control over the executive lies in the motion of no- confidence• Rajya Sabha consists of a maximum of 250 members, of which twelve are nominated by the president for their special knowledge or practical experience.• The legislative process generally follows the British practice. – Once both houses pass a bill, it requires the president’s assent to become a law. – Joint sessions are used to resolve conflicts. – Lack of party discipline
  69. 69. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND THE POLICY PROCESS: JUDICIARY• Constitution committed to individual rights of equality and liberty• System that is both independent from external control and free to interpret the law• Supreme Court has original and exclusive jurisdiction in disputes between the Union government and one or more states, or disputes between two or more states• It has appellate jurisdiction in any case, civil or criminal that involves a question of law in the meaning and intent of the Constitution• Supreme Court determines the constitutionality of any enactment.
  70. 70. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND THE POLICY PROCESS: BUREAUCRACY• Bureaucratic apparatus that is both professionally organized and politically accountable• Enormously complex system that combines national or all-India services with regional and local services – IAS, IPS
  71. 71. THE FEDERAL STRUCTURE• Fear of “balkanization”• Special features of the Indian Constitution – Produce highly centralized form of federalism • Division of powers between the central government and the states with a bias in favor of the center • The financial provisions affecting the distribution of revenues• Kashmir – Test of the integrative ability of the Indian political system• Union List – Special powers: emergency powers; use of executive powers, special legislative powers• State List• Pattern of cooperation between center and the states
  72. 72. THE ARTICULATION OF INTERESTS (1)• Trade Unions and Employer’s Associations – Under India’s labor law, any seven workers can set up a trade union – All India Trade Union Congress – All India Railwaymen’s Federation – Interest groups closely affiliated with parties• Indigenous Interests – Satyagraha – Chipko – Indian Peasant Union • Kisans
  73. 73. THE ARTICULATION OF INTERESTS (2)• Local Politics – Social activists – Dharna – Gherao – Rajiv Gandhi
  74. 74. THE ARTICULATION OF INTERESTS (3)• Democracy and the challenge of governance – Indian case demonstrates how transactional politics within firm boundaries laid down and defended with overwhelming force by the state have helped in the functioning of representative political institutions.
  75. 75. THE ARTICULATION OF INTERESTS (4)• The Military – Professional and apolitical character of the army – Office corps of India has remained nonpartisan even during political turmoil. – Absence of leadership vacuum at the upper and middle levels of the system and the fragmented character of the command structure = relative immunity of the Indian political system from a military takeover
  76. 76. RIOTS IN INDIA
  77. 77. THE PARTY SYSTEM• The Congress System – The Congress Party• The Bharatiya Janata Party• The Communist Party• The social bases of the parties – Congress Party cuts across all social groups and cleavages of India; catch-all party – Hindu nationalist BJP is very much a party of the Hindu-Hindi-belt – has extended somewhat beyond the upper social order and Hindu upper caste – Communist parties (CPM and CPI) attracts more support from lower social classes and the more educated voters.
  78. 78. THE POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION AND POLITICAL CULTURE• The interaction of tradition and modernity – W.H. Morris-Jones: three idioms: the modern, the traditional, and the saintly• Political learning – Schooling is limited, and primary schooling is not a federal subject – Mass illiteracy – Liberalization and penetration by the electronic media• Elections – Participation has stabilized around 60%
  79. 79. TURNOUT
  83. 83. POLITICAL RECRUITMENT• Percentage of politicians of rural origin has grown in the Lok Sabha over the years• Percentage of Brahmins has dropped significantly• Many regional governments have become important recruitment ground for new leaders and a school for training these potential leaders.
  84. 84. POLICIES TO ADDRESS THE ECONOMY, WELFARE AND POVERTY• Politics of incremental growth and redistribution – Mass poverty has always been high on the nation’s political agenda – National Development Council – Eliminated famine and a reliance on imported food – Green Revolution – Food procurement – Planned development based on mixed economy • “commanding heights” – dominated by the public sector achieved some welfare and some negative side-effects – Quota-permit-raj – Corruption and inefficiency – Manmohan Singh - liberalization
  86. 86. CONCLUSION: DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT• What kind of democracy will emerge over the nest decades in India? – An elitist, affluent, and secure India – A majoritarian democracy, reforming but still poor, armed with nuclear teeth, threatening its neighbors• Democratic potential of politics from below• Its “million mutinies” ensconced in the context of a responsive state and elites well versed in the art and science of governance, can pave the transition to liberal democracy despite predictions to the contrary.