Today there are 13 Billion devices connected to the network, that’s 2 connected devices per person on earthCisco 2011 Visual Networking Index details the stunning numbers that are associated with the growth of networks. By 2020 there will be 50 Billion devices connected to the InternetSo in the next 9 years there will be a 4-fold increase in the number of devices. Source: http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.htmlTransition: Those are the numbers today. What is in store for the rest of the decade?The world around us is changing rapidly and so is the way we access and consume information. Today, networks connect over 23 billion devices. Within that figure, networked consumers typically use 2 diverse devices to access information from the internet. But this is just the beginning of what’s to come. Some estimates project that more than 50 billion devices will be connected to the internet in the next decade.
That translates to 1 person owning 6 devices on averageNote that in addition to smart phones, tablets and other “human enabled” devices, the internet will also include many times the number of sensors that don’t have a screen, keypad or require human interaction. The Internet of Things will also grow to include sensors in cattle so that when a cow is sick it transmits a message to the farmer. Each cow would transmit 200 mb of data a year. Cisco’s Planetary Skin Institute (planetaryskin.org) is working with NASA to marry data from satellites, land sensors and the internet to interpret data on climate change. IPv6 will allow for a vast number of network addresses to support this expansion. (Source: Cisco’s Dave Evans Blog posting, July 15, 2011: http://blogs.cisco.com/news/the-internet-of-things-infographic/)Cellular communication between objects, machines, or sensors has led to the growth of M2M connections. These connections are in the form of smart metering, business and consumer surveillance, inventory management, fleet management, and healthcare modules, all of which are designed for operational excellence. M2M technologies are being used across a broad spectrum of industries. As real-time information monitoring is helping companies to deploy new video-based security systems and hospitals and helping healthcare professionals to remotely monitor the progress of their patients, bandwidth-intensive M2M connections become more prevalent. Traditional appliances and devices, such as home appliances, vehicles, energy meters, and vending machines-which traditionally have not been connected directly to cellular networks-are now entering the network.High-bandwidth scenarios for M2M are becoming real in many categories, including the following.• Business and consumer security and surveillance: Video streams such as commercial security cameras, nannycams, and petcams, accessed through mobile-enabled residential or commercial gateways, fall into this category.• Health care: In the medical, well-being, and sports and fitness industries, devices and services used by medical personnel are being connected to reduce errors.• Inventory and fleet management: Wi-Fi is being considered as an adjunct to cellular-based fleet management connectivity, to allow a vehicle to use cellular technology in the field, and support lower-cost, higher-speed Wi-Fi to download and upload data while in fleet headquarters and loading areas.• Telematics: Trip assistance, navigation, and vehicle management are gaining greater consumer adoption, along with broadband-to-the-car offerings that use a cellular connection to the vehicle and then distribute the connection to notebook PCs and other devices within the vehicle through Wi-Fi.M2M capabilities similar to mobile devices are migrating from second-generation (2G) to 3G and 4G technologies. Globally, M2M traffic will grow 22-fold from 2011 to 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 86 percent, with M2M traffic reaching 508,022 terabytes per month in 2016. M2M will account for 5 percent of total mobile data traffic in 2016, compared to 4 percent at the end of 2011. The average M2M module will generate 266 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up from 71 megabytes per month in 2011.(Source: Cisco VNI p. 19)Uneven access to these devices:Of course, the ownership of devices will not be spread evenly. The digital divide will be operational on a global level. Much of developing world does not yet have access to electricity or the internet:"Some 1.6 billion people, about one quarter of the world’s population, have no access to electricity today. Eighty percent of these people live in rural areas of the developing world, mainly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa ..." (Source: IEA, "The Developing World and the Electricity Challenge," Jan. 2005, http://www.iea.org/Textbase/work/2005/poverty/blurb.pdf)ITU data suggest that the number of ‘unconnected’ (by early 2008) is substantial:About half of the world’s population (over threebillion) does not have a mobile phoneAn estimated 5.2 billion people are not using the Internet. By the end of 2007, ITU estimates that about 20 percent of the world's population are not covered by a mobile cellular network and are without basic access to ICTs.(Source: http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/ict/index.html)Coming off a low base, The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth (between now and 2020) of any region at 104 percent CAGR. This region will be followed by Asia Pacific at 84 percent and Central and Eastern Europe at 83 percent. (Cisco VNI)Total content = by 2020 1 zettabyte (ZB)The amount of online rich media consumption is increasing exponentially on an annual basis. Global Internet traffic was once measured in megabytes, but thanks to the rapid increase in file sharing, video web mail and video calling, annual global IP traffic will soon exceed three-quarters of a zettabyte. A zettabyte is equal to 1 billion terabytes or one sextillion bytes. How much is that? If the 11 oz coffee on the desk in front of you is equal to 1 GB (gigabyte) then 1 ZB (zettabyte) would have the same volume as the Great Wall of China! (Source: http://share.cisco.com/dawn-of-the-zettabyte-era.html)Transition: Let’s not get overwhelmed with big numbers! What does the rate of change translate to in terms we can all understand?Assuming that bears out, that means potentially having to manage up to 6 devices or more on average <CLICK>And with the number of devices exploding, the number of applications is also growing exponentially <CLICK> As a result, the amount of content that needs to be managed is also increasing. Think about it – by 2020, there will be a zettabyte of data traversing networks. Pop quiz for all you – do you know how may zeroes a zettabyte has (answer: 10 raised to the power of 21 bytes or 1 billion terabytes)? It’s huge. Organizations are facing a very different world as they move into the new decade and a new global economy. The way we live, the way we work, the way we are entertained, the way we play; it’s all changing.
By the time we are done with this presentation, over 6,000 tablets will have been sold. And we’re not talking about Aspirin or Ibuprofen tablets! Since Apple introduced the iPad in 2010, the market for so-called “tablet” computers has exploded. By 2015 Gartner predicts tablets will account for 60% of all PC sales selling 326 million units then, compared to 63 million units in 2011. (Source: http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1800514)Now, don’t you wish you’d bought Apple stock in 2009? :-)Transition: Many tablets and mobile devices are used to consume as opposed to create content. And what’s the one form of content we all enjoy consuming? Right – video!If this wasn’t enough change, just think that in the time it is taking to say this sentence <CLICK>another 190 internet-enabled tablets will have been sold <CLICK> More important, most of these devices will enter your corporate infrastructure without IT even knowing about it. In fact, in just five years, more people will be connected through mobile devices than traditional desktops. Mobility is major trend facing enterprises.
Video traffic will quadruple all IP traffic by 2014When the Internet first started it was all ASCII characters, plain text messages and emails. Then came the browser and we started to see graphics: pictures and simple audio. Then voice over IP happened. Now the big driver of the growth of IP traffic is video.Global IP traffic in 2010 stands at 20.2 exabytes per month and quadruples by 2015, to reach 80.5 exabytes per month. Consumer IPtraffic will reach 70 exabytes per month and business IP traffic will surpass 10 exabytes per month. Video is the main driver of this 4x increase.Global Internet video traffic surpassed global peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic in 2010, and by 2012 Internet video will account for over 50 percent of consumer Internet traffic. As anticipated, as of 2010 P2P traffic is no longer the largest Internet traffic type, for the first time in 10 years. Internet video was 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic in 2010 and will reach 50 percent by year-end 2012.It would take over 5 years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks every second in 2015. Every second, 1 million minutes of video content will cross the network in 2015.Internet video is now 40 percent of consumer Internet traffic, and will reach 62 percent by the end of 2015, not including the amount of video exchanged through P2P file sharing. The sum of all forms of video (TV, video on demand [VoD], Internet, and P2P) will continue to be approximately 90 percent of global consumer traffic by 2015.(Source: http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-481360_ns827_Networking_Solutions_White_Paper.html)Transition: We grew up watching video on the TV set at home. Then we might have watched video on the desktop or laptop. But today, what about video on mobile devices? How much of the traffic on mobile devices is video?
Two-thirds of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2016Mobile video will increase 25-fold between 2011 and 2016, accounting for over 70 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of the forecast period. Because mobile video content has much higher bit rates than other mobile content types, mobile video will generate much of the mobile traffic growth through 2016. Mobile video will grow at a CAGR of 90 percent between 2011 and 2016, the highest growth rate of any mobile application category that we forecast. Of the 10.8 exabytes per month crossing the mobile network by 2016, 7.6 exabytes will be due to video. (Source: Cisco VNI)There will be no place for a “bad hair day” when you communicate in the future. Will you have your video face on?Mobile-connected tablets will generate almost as much traffic in 2016 as the entire global mobile network in 2012. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 (1.1 exabytes per month) will be approximately equal to the total amount of global mobile data traffic in 2012 (1.3 exabytes per month).As mobile network connection speeds increase, the average bit rate of content accessed through the mobile network will increase. High-definition video will be more prevalent, and the proportion of streamed content as compared to side-loaded content is also expected to increase with average mobile network connection speed.● The shift toward on-demand video will affect mobile networks as much as it will affect fixed networks.● Traffic can increase dramatically even while the total amount of time spent watching video remainsrelatively constant.(Source: Cisco VNI)Transition: Where will all this video for these countless mobile devices be hosted? Not on the handset. In data centers serving content through the cloud...And video is going mobile. Analysts estimate that two thirds of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2015.
Enterprise-class cloud technology will be used by 70% of enterprises by 201278% of Enterprises will be pursuing a Private Cloud Strategy by 2014A cloud is a powerful combination of cloud computing, networking, storage, management solutions, and business applications that facilitate a new generation of IT and consumer services. These services are available on demand, and delivered economically, without compromising security or functionality. We are moving to an interconnected "world of many clouds," where people will have access to cloud services anytime, on any device, anywhere in the world. Enterprises, service providers, small businesses, and governments are looking for cloud solutions to solve some of their biggest business and technology challenges. A solution to these challenges requires an approach that fully integrates the three pillars of cloud: cloud applications and services, data centers, and networks. (Source: http://www.cisco.com/web/solutions/trends/cloud/index.html)From 2000 to 2008, peer-to-peer file sharing dominated Internet traffic. As a result, the majority of Internet traffic did not touch a data center, but was communicated directly between Internet users. Since 2008, most Internet traffic has originated or terminated in a data center. Data center traffic will continue to dominate Internet traffic for the foreseeable future, but the nature of data center traffic will undergo a fundamental transformation brought about by cloud applications, services, and infrastructure. By 2015, one-third of data center traffic will be cloud traffic.Global data center traffic:• Annual global data center IP traffic will reach 4.8 zettabytes by the end of 2015. In 2015, global data center IP traffic will reach 402 exabytes per month.• Global data center IP traffic will increase fourfold over the next 5 years. Overall, data center IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33 percent from 2010 to 2015.Global cloud traffic:• Annual global cloud IP traffic will reach 1.6 zettabytes by the end of 2015. In 2015, global cloud IP traffic will reach 133 exabytes per month.• Global cloud IP traffic will increase twelvefold over the next 5 years. Overall, cloud IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 66 percent from 2010 to 2015.• Global cloud IP traffic will account for more than one-third (34 percent) of total data center traffic by 2015.(Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2010-2015)This also relates back to the growth in mobile devices and multi-media consumption on those devices.Mobile devices have memory and speed limitations that might prevent them from acting as media consumption devices, were it not for cloud applications and services. Cloud applications and services such as Netflix, YouTube, Pandora, and Spotify allow mobile users to overcome the memory capacity and processing power limitations of mobile devices. A user with an 8 GB smartphone who streams cloud video and music will consume more content over the course of 2 years than can be stored on the device itself. A smartphone user adopting Netflix, Pandora, and Facebook will generate more than twice the volume of traffic generated by a smartphone user adopting only email and web applications. Because many Internet video applications can be categorized as cloud applications, mobile cloud traffic follows a curve similar to video. Globally, cloud applications will account for 71 percent (7.6 exabytes per month) of total mobile data traffic in 2016, compared to 45 percent (269 petabytes per month) at the end of 2011. Mobile cloud traffic will grow 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 95 percent.(Source: Cisco VNI p.11)Transition: What does the cloud-enablement of data centers mean for the consumer? Will we still be using the Wintel “fat clients” (laptops & PC’s with local storage and processing power) than we have all grown up with?
56% of organizations want desktop virtualization (VXI)Rather than provision each person in the organization with their own personal Wintel “space heater” complete with storage, memory, and fan to cool it (!) the shared resources model inherent in desktop virtualization offers advantages over the traditional model, in which every computer operates as a completely self-contained unit with its own operating system, peripherals, and application programs. Overall hardware expenses may diminish as users can share resources allocated to them on an as-needed basis. Virtualization potentially improves the data integrity of user information because all data can be maintained and backed-up in the data center.Potential advantages include:simpler provisioning of new desktopsreduced downtime in the event of server or client hardware-failureslower cost of deploying new applicationsdesktop image-management capabilitieslonger refresh cycle for client desktop infrastructuresecure remote access to an enterprise desktop environment (no one can leave a virtual device in the back of a taxi and lose the company secrets, as often happens with laptops).(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desktop_virtualization#Advantages_and_disadvantages)Desktop Virtualization built on Cisco VXI data center delivers: Simplified, streamlined desktop operations with fewer servers and cables to manageSecure, pervasive VM-aware networking and security for virtual desktopsScalable, predictable performance with uncompromised user experienceFaster payback and ongoing savings with an optimized infrastructure and investment protectionCisco desktop virtualization technologies, services, and best practices combine with partner offerings to deliver:Open, industry-leading approach for resource efficiency and controlCisco Validated Designs that reduce the risk of moving from proof-of-concept to full-scale productionThe foundation for next-generation workspaces built on Cisco VXIData center virtualization and cloud computing transition:● The number of workloads per installed traditional server will increase from 1.4 in 2010 to 2.0 in 2015.● The number of workloads per installed cloud server will increase from 3.5 in 2010 to 7.8 in 2015.● By 2014, more than 50 percent of all workloads will be processed in the cloud.(Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2010-2015)[NOTE: Cisco Finance presenters can also talk to the cost/benefits on virtualization vs. fat clients]Transition:So, now I’ve blinded you with science and a set of astounding statistics, what does this mean for Cisco and for you, our customers? Quite simply, the statistics I’ve just shared are the core drivers for our strategy and goals.As a result, we’re going to start seeing traditional desktops shift to virtual desktops. According to a Forrester survey of IT professionals, 56% of you want to utilize virtual desktops.
The role of the network was to provide connectivity from that desktop to the server that hosted an application. And back then, we were identified by that singular IP address associated with that computer node. That IP address was our identity.Transition:What’s the network evolved into? Well, now, it looks like this ...
Everything extends from the NetworkFrom the Desktop to the Data Center, the network unites everything. It sits like a giant “T” on top of a cumulo-nimbus cloud with pretty lights surounding it and lightbulbs on each side :-)Transition: Let’s see what this means in terms of Enterprise Networking ...So now device proliferation, mobility, cloud and virtualization are disrupting the traditional way of managing the control over their network. But the CIO is not quite ready to give up that control. He or she may be willing to move the control point and suddenly the network becomes the obvious place for that to happen <CLICK>Since everything extends from the network, it provides the context, the policy, the presence and much more intelligent information to make sure the right access is granted to the right application. Fast, reliable and secure.
Enterprise Megatrends are in these areas:Mobility for Consumer DevicesImmersive Collaboration and Pervasive Video Cloud in terms of Software as a Service (Saas)Data Center and VirtualizationWith implications for:Security in response to accelerating Cyber-ThreatsIT Productivity in terms of Service and Network ManagementGreen and efficient use of energyMegatrends:Mobility for Consumer Devices: Access a borderless network, anywhere, anytime on any device.Immersive Collaboration and Pervasive Video: Immersive Cisco TelePresence meetings connect team members face-to-face with an exceptional user experience.Cloud and Software as a Service (SaaS): Use the power of the networked datacenter and Cisco’s UCS and V-Block solutions to deliver Software as a Service over the cloud.Data Center and Virtualization: Consolidate resources in the data center with a networking fabric that allows for virtualization of servers and storage.Implications:Security in response to accelerating Cyber-Threats: Today’s enterprises are grappling with an array of security issues brought about by changing attitudes and work habits among their employees, and the dynamics of a more collaborative, connected, and mobile world. To address these threats it is neccesary to assess the totality of your network. Know where your IT infrastructure begins and ends—so many enterprises simply have no idea of the entirety of their network. Also, know what your ‘normal’ is so you can quickly identify and respond to a problem. Cisco stays ahead of the latest threats using real-time threat intelligence from Cisco Security Intelligence Operations (SIO). Cisco SIO is the world’s largest cloud-based security ecosystem, using SensorBase data of almost 1 million live data feeds from deployed Cisco email, web, firewall, and intrusion prevention system (IPS) solutions. (Source: Cisco 2011 Annual Security Report)IT Productivity in terms of Service and Network Management: Cisco network and automation products improve operational efficiency and reduce downtime, using class-leading products and solutions for managing an enterprise network, increasing efficiency with IT automation products that save time, provide clear visibility, and strengthen control over operations. (Source: http://www.cisco.com/en/US/products/sw/netmgtsw/index.html)Green and efficient use of energy: Rising energy costs, environmental concerns, government and industry directives, and heightened public scrutiny are all forcing "green" issues and practices to the forefront of business and IT plans. As a resource that touches everything, the network is ideally suited to bolster these efforts and provide much-needed relief from increasing environmental pressures.As the centerpiece of many of the world's networks, Cisco's routing and switching systems are uniquely positioned to have a positive, broad-based impact along four primary fronts:Power EfficiencyOptimized power suppliesPerformance-to-Power gainIntelligent power managementOperational EfficiencyIntegrated servicesCollaboration servicesNetwork virtualizationContinuous InnovationEvolving servicesProgressive designRegulatory complianceExtended Service LifeService readinessPlatform extensibilityComponent reuse and sharingCisco Network Systems solutions offer a range of additional benefits, including helping your business:Control energy costs and consumptionMeet regulatory requirements and business directivesImprove operational efficiency and effectiveness of ITDrive "green" business practices, such as remote collaboration and telecommutingOptimize resource utilization and minimize e-waste(Source: http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/ns726/netsol_generic_enabling_green_practices.html)Transition:Now lets conclude by taking a look at the enabling technologies in the Intelligent Network ...
The Intelligent Network is enabled by technologies such as Unified Access, Virtualization Experience Infrastructure (VXI), Next Generation Wide Area Nextworks (WAN), Unified Fabric and Unified Compute.Enabling Technologies: Cisco Unified Access: Drives solutions to deliver ubiquitous access at the network edge by converging disparate wired and wireless infrastructures.Cisco VXI: Cisco Virtualization Experience Infrastructure (VXI) is an end-to-end systems approach that delivers the next generation virtual workspace by unifying virtual desktops, voice, and video. It helps IT provide an exceptionally flexible and secure converged infrastructure for an uncompromised user experience.Next-Gen WAN: The Cisco Next Generation Enterprise WAN (NGEW) is a Cisco end-to-end architecture that provides foundation building blocks for next-generation enterprise networks. The hierarchical design provides the scalability required by large enterprises and can be extended and replicated throughout multiple regions and theaters. This consistency leads to ease of deployment, maintenance, and troubleshooting.Unified Fabric: Cisco Unified Fabric is one of the pillars of the Cisco Unified Data Center, which unifies computing, storage, networking, and management resources to simplify IT operations, reduce costs, and increase performance. Specifically, a Cisco Unified Fabric is a data center network that supports both traditional LAN traffic and all types of storage traffic, including traditional non-IP-based protocols such as Fibre Channel and IBM Fibre Connection (FICON), tying everything together with a single OS (Cisco NX-OS Software), a single management GUI, and full interoperability between the Ethernet and non-Ethernet portions of the network.Cisco Unified Compute Systems (UCS): Is an x86 architecture data center server platform composed of computing hardware, virtualization support, switching fabric, and management software. The idea behind the system is to reduce total cost of ownership and improve scalability by integrating the different components into a cohesive platform that can be managed as a single unit.Call to Action: Please talk to your Cisco sales team about how these enabling technologies can assist your organization prepare for the astounding growth in networking between now and 2020.Transition: Thanks for listening to my presentation, does anyone have any comments, observations or questions?
The Next Network and the Internet of Things
The Network is the Platform
(Internet of Things)
Utilities (Smart Grid)