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Stephen H. Schneider *   Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor,  Departmen...
 
Falsifies Global Warming??
Falsifies Global Warming?? Going to Hell in a Handbasket??
 
 
 
 
 
 
<ul><li>“ Med ia rol ogy ” </li></ul>
 
 
 
 
Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming   Non linear “tipping points” matter!
Greenland Ice Melt, 1992 vs. 2002
 
More snow Fast melting
 
 
Moulin Creating a “tipping point”?
Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) High tech NASA attempts to discover Greenland tipping point??
 
 
Competing Explanations Tipping    Global Warming
  Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1...
NASA After Schaer et al., 2004 Switzerland Summer T, 1860-2003 Extreme Events: Heat
IPCC, 2007 Extreme Events: Heat
Wildfires Frequency increased four fold in last 30 years . Source: Westerling et al. 2006 Western US area burned
Extreme Events: Wildfires Late Snowmelt Years Early Snowmelt Years Fewer, smaller fires More, larger fires Westerling
 
Adaptation??
Adaptation Move up (or polerward); plant (or develop) warmer varieties; or... abandon
  Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1...
 
Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline  --mitigation for changes beyond what we can adapt to 2-Pe...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Source: Rosenfeld 2005
 
If a KWh is $0.15, then 40,000 GWh hours per year is a  savings  of about $6 billion per year!
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Methods to achieve announced  climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D inc...
Methods to achieve announced  climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D inc...
 
 
 
Out of the box thinking :  combined wind, solar thermal with storage, smart grids and uses for “dumped &quot;energy when s...
                                                                                                                          ...
Figure 1. Concept of low-temperature pyrolysis bio-energy with biochar sequestration. Typically, about 50% of the pyrolyze...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Questions??? Comments??
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Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion

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Professor Schneider is actively involved with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and specializes in projecting global climate change and related impacts for the future. He is also dedicated to communicating science to the public.

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Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion

  1. 1. Stephen H. Schneider * Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biology Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Stanford University Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion SWISSNEX, Meeting the Energy Challenge Wednesday, March 17, 2010 7:30-8:30pm *[Website for more info: climatechange.net.]
  2. 3. Falsifies Global Warming??
  3. 4. Falsifies Global Warming?? Going to Hell in a Handbasket??
  4. 11. <ul><li>“ Med ia rol ogy ” </li></ul>
  5. 16. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
  6. 17. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
  7. 18. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming Non linear “tipping points” matter!
  8. 19. Greenland Ice Melt, 1992 vs. 2002
  9. 21. More snow Fast melting
  10. 24. Moulin Creating a “tipping point”?
  11. 25. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
  12. 26. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) High tech NASA attempts to discover Greenland tipping point??
  13. 29. Competing Explanations Tipping  Global Warming
  14. 30. Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1 to 1.5°C (11.4%; 1 in 9 odds) 1.5 to 2°C (20.6%; 1 in 5 odds) 2 to 2.5°C (22.5%; 1 in 4 odds) 2.5 to 3°C (16.8%; 1 in 6 odds) 3 to 4°C (16.2%; 1 in 6 odds) 4 to 5°C (4.6%; 1 in 22 odds) >5°C (3.8%; 1 in 26 odds)
  15. 31. NASA After Schaer et al., 2004 Switzerland Summer T, 1860-2003 Extreme Events: Heat
  16. 32. IPCC, 2007 Extreme Events: Heat
  17. 33. Wildfires Frequency increased four fold in last 30 years . Source: Westerling et al. 2006 Western US area burned
  18. 34. Extreme Events: Wildfires Late Snowmelt Years Early Snowmelt Years Fewer, smaller fires More, larger fires Westerling
  19. 36. Adaptation??
  20. 37. Adaptation Move up (or polerward); plant (or develop) warmer varieties; or... abandon
  21. 38. Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1 to 1.5°C (11.4%; 1 in 9 odds) 1.5 to 2°C (20.6%; 1 in 5 odds) 2 to 2.5°C (22.5%; 1 in 4 odds) 2.5 to 3°C (16.8%; 1 in 6 odds) 3 to 4°C (16.2%; 1 in 6 odds) 4 to 5°C (4.6%; 1 in 22 odds) >5°C (3.8%; 1 in 26 odds) Little adaptive capacity
  22. 40. Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
  23. 41. Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
  24. 61. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
  25. 62. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
  26. 63. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline --mitigation for changes beyond what we can adapt to 2-Performance 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
  27. 64. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
  28. 65. Source: Rosenfeld 2005
  29. 67. If a KWh is $0.15, then 40,000 GWh hours per year is a savings of about $6 billion per year!
  30. 68. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation -IT Opportunity ) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
  31. 69. Methods to achieve announced climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D incentives </li></ul>
  32. 70. Methods to achieve announced climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D incentives </li></ul>Deployment/demonstration
  33. 74. Out of the box thinking : combined wind, solar thermal with storage, smart grids and uses for “dumped &quot;energy when system overproduces
  34. 75.                                                                                                                                                     
  35. 76. Figure 1. Concept of low-temperature pyrolysis bio-energy with biochar sequestration. Typically, about 50% of the pyrolyzed biomass is converted into biochar and can be returned to soil. Source: Johannes Lehmann, 2007
  36. 77. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
  37. 78. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
  38. 79. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
  39. 80. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
  40. 81. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
  41. 82. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
  42. 83. Questions??? Comments??

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