Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
A summary of my OSCON 3 hr Tutorial on ...




 Situation Normal,
 Everything Must
      Change

Leading Edge Forum       ...
Situation Normal, Everything Must Change ...


              1                       2                          3

       ...
... Starting with diffusion ...
                   Everett Rogers
Rate of adoption

                       1960s
         ...
Total Adoption
                                                  Diffusion Curve




                         Everett Roge...
Total Adoption

                             Telephony


                             + Mature


                         ...
... by abolishing
Ubiquity
           time, we can clearly           Utility Service
             see that pattern.
      ...
Ubiquity
           Demand
           (user competition)

                                     io n
                      ...
No Data   No Causation    No Correlation

                                            Cloud
                              ...
Ubiquity
                     Attitude
                            Technology
                 Factors
           Concept
...
... Unfortunately IT isn't
Ubiquity
                N. Carr          one thing ...


                                     ...
Consumption
Ubiquity

                                       "Perspective"



   ... and there is a difference
       betw...
... even the creative
    process can have      Commodities
                                                    Operationa...
Future Worth
                     ∝
 ... and there is an inherent
  link between future worth
                            ...
Time keeper
                              Camera Phone
Ubiquity
                      Address book

                      ...
DANGER!
Complexity
 DANGER!
 ... which is why examining evolution is
                complex ...
... Fortunately
Ubiquity
           Economies of scale (volume operations)
           Focus on core (outsource)
          ...
Joseph A. Schumpeter
Ubiquity
           ... and consequences ...                    (1883 - 1950)




                   ...
... these impacts
Ubiquity
                            Software
           Less Visible     Platform
                     ...
Ubiquity            Transition
                    Confusion
                    Governance
                    Trust
    ...
... then again you
Ubiquity
                                      Market                    have no choice ...

          ...
Consumerization
                               ... and sometimes
                              this can impact you
       ...
Ubiquity
                         Disruptive to Existing
                                Vendors
                         ...
... of course, organisations deal with
Frequency

               many activities and hence they have a
                   ...
Frequency

             Dynamic                              Repeatable
             Deviation                            ...
... evolution in effect creates a
Frequency

                                            virtuous circle ...

            ...
H. Pixii, 1832                       National Grid, ‘30s



Turing ‘36                                      PowerEdge, ‘02...
Chaotic              Transition                   Linear




       Lists                    Siebel SIS ’94

 Customer DBM...
Frequency

                                                6 Sigma
            ... which is why
            one size doesn...
... ditto ...
Frequency


            Agile




     Encourages
      Deviation                                   Encourag...
VS
  Survival Tomorrow                            Survival Today
                           Innovation Paradox
          S...
... and typical
1. One size fits all             problems are caused
                                  by trying to use
2. ...
Grow
              Die              Competitor
    Your      Compete
  Company     Evolve
                             ......
... you have energy stores,
   actors and activities ...
                               Agents
             Capital
      ...
DANGER!
Complexity
 DANGER!
 ... which is why management is complex ...
Frequency
              Chaotic               Transition           Linear



                                           .....
... and how consumption
Frequency
                   Chaotic           Transition
                 of an activity can co- ...
... and how a new activty
Frequency
              Chaotic                  Transition           Linear
                   ...
.... with this we can identify what practices fit ...
Frequency


            Experiment                   ROI             ...
No, I don't
                  know its ROI




.... and why we
   go wrong ...
.... and why we can't avoid
                       gambling (uncertainty), despite
Lifecycle ...                our best e...
... because advantage only
                     occurs before the "slope of
                            enlightenment" ......
... but we can exploit
these relationship to
create more effective
       patterns of
                                 Com...
Innovate                   Adapt


              Experiment
                                    Leverage
                 ...
+ High rates of Innovation


                Speed               + Reduced cost of gamble

                               ...
... but cloud isn't just
   about new patterns.                         Utility
As competition crosses a                  ...
"Success is a lousy teacher"
                                                     Bill Gates
... because past success
crea...
... and in this disruptive
    phase, new tactical
   games are also being
         played ...
                           ...
... including Tower (new
core revenue) & Moat (area
devoid of differential value with
   high barriers to entry) ...

    ...
... the use of open
source as a tactical
       weapon ...


                  Infrastructure




                    aims...
Broker

  Exchange

           Assurance


... even side stepping
      an oncoming
       barrier ...
    Innovation   Cu...
Steve Jobs


                            Jeff Bezos

 Creative                         Disruptive
Leadership              ...
... even when factors
are in place & benefits
are clear, it's not only                        Factors
 vendor inertia which...
Transition
                Disruption




   ... but customer inertia             Outsourcing
       through perceived
   ...
... so activities often                  Pressure
    build up behind
these barriers until
    breached by an
    organisa...
Creative Leadership             Disruptive Leadership

                                        disruption / war
          ...
... each with different characteristics
             i.e. those inertia barriers are beneficial
                       in t...
... and the largest examples
 of these state changes can
    be seen as K-Waves ...


                     Margin



     ...
"War" CEO
             "Peace"
              CEO

"Build"
 ... this leads
              some to talk
    about "Peacetime"...
Frequency


                                  ... but large organisations
                                 produce many ac...
IT
Frequency

                                         ... the situation is only made
                     Admin          ...
... and attempts to
create homogenous
    structures ...
                      Lifecycle




                      Lifecyc...
Experiment
               ... from people who
Take Risks        themselves have      Lifecycle
                      diffe...
Best Practice


                           Avoid Risk
                                  Lifecycle


... polar opposites .....
Lifecycle

                  ROI


                 ... creating
              structures with
Experiment   internal confli...
Pioneers                 Settlers             Town Planners
Frequency




                    ... Hence, by organising alo...
... and management is one
  of controlling flows and
        barriers ...




                                           To...
Pioneers                 Settlers         Town Planners


                                         "War"
             "Pea...
Pioneers                Settlers        Town Planners




 Creative                          Disruptive
Leadership        ...
Pioneers               Settlers            Town Planners
Frequency



            Experiment                  ROI         ...
Pioneers   Innovate

           Settlers    Leverage

                            Town Planners
                          ...
Pioneers                Settlers           Town Planners




          Broker

Exchange

        Assurance

              ...
1. One size fits all              ... and avoiding the
                                    mistakes of the
2. But it worked...
... problem is, doing this makes management hard ...


                     Requisite Variety
  The system must be able to...
... BUT the process of simplification (e.g. one size fits all,
 KPIs everywhere) only works if we all agree to do this

    ...
... fortunately we don't live in a world of ...




 Situation Normal,
 Everything Stays
     the Same.

Leading Edge Foru...
... but ...




 Situation Normal,
 Everything Must
      Change

Leading Edge Forum                 March 2011
... here we looked at how different organisation can
      exploit these factors to their advantage ...




  Summary ...
...
... I might be a "researcher", talk about the
tactical use of open source & give conference talks
      on how to disrupt ...
You’ve finished this document.
Download and read it offline.
Upcoming SlideShare
Situation Normal Everything Must Change
Next
Upcoming SlideShare
Situation Normal Everything Must Change
Next
Download to read offline and view in fullscreen.

14

Share

Situation Normal Everything Must Change

Download to read offline

A very rough and extremely condensed summary of my three hour OSCON 2011 tutorial on business evolution, cloud, new forms of organisational patterns, tactics, and competition.

Related Books

Free with a 30 day trial from Scribd

See all

Related Audiobooks

Free with a 30 day trial from Scribd

See all

Situation Normal Everything Must Change

  1. 1. A summary of my OSCON 3 hr Tutorial on ... Situation Normal, Everything Must Change Leading Edge Forum March 2011
  2. 2. Situation Normal, Everything Must Change ... 1 2 3 Business/IT Business/IT Relationship The Consumerization of Co-evolution Management IT How are business and How can Enterprise IT How are consumer IT changing each other? add more value to the technologies and the organization? Internet affecting both the firm and central IT? 4 5 6 Organizing IT for the The Changing Nature of Business Future Work Sustainability What will the retained How will management, How can IT be used central IT function employees and the to help make firms look like? culture of the firm need more to change? environmentally ... this is what I do ... friendly? Leading Edge Forum March 2011
  3. 3. ... Starting with diffusion ... Everett Rogers Rate of adoption 1960s Geoffrey A. Moore Crossing the Chasm Time
  4. 4. Total Adoption Diffusion Curve Everett Rogers Diffusion of Innovations, 1962 Cumulative ... and diffusion curves ... Time
  5. 5. Total Adoption Telephony + Mature ... we can hint Evolution at a pattern of evolution ... Time
  6. 6. ... by abolishing Ubiquity time, we can clearly Utility Service see that pattern. Now, we have correlation, data ... Commodity Product Service Custom built Innovation Certainty
  7. 7. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) io n at it is o d ... and m m causation ... Co Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  8. 8. No Data No Causation No Correlation Cloud Web Client Server Mainframe ... unlike those who just make this stuff up ...
  9. 9. Ubiquity Attitude Technology Factors Concept Suitability ... unfortunately we How NOT can't say when things when ... will change (we abolished time). Fortunately barriers exist, ... Certainty
  10. 10. ... Unfortunately IT isn't Ubiquity N. Carr one thing ... Cost of Doing Business Competitive Advantage P. Strassmann Certainty
  11. 11. Consumption Ubiquity "Perspective" ... and there is a difference between consumer and Brand producer perspective ... (+ lifestyle) Production "Perspective" Certainty
  12. 12. ... even the creative process can have Commodities Operational Advantage different effects ... don't become innovations ... "Creative Process" Feature Differentiation Invention Novel practice Idea creates ... Genesis Discovery
  13. 13. Future Worth ∝ ... and there is an inherent link between future worth 1 Certainty and uncertainty ...
  14. 14. Time keeper Camera Phone Ubiquity Address book Calculator Internet Digital music player Radio GIS Social Network Augmented Reality ... Social Gaming and many devices ID Card bundle multiple activities ... Health Monitor Certainty
  15. 15. DANGER! Complexity DANGER! ... which is why examining evolution is complex ...
  16. 16. ... Fortunately Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) evolution creates Pay per use (utility) common benefits ... efficiency consumption Agility (Self Service) Opportunity (long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) William Stanley Jevons, 1865 Certainty
  17. 17. Joseph A. Schumpeter Ubiquity ... and consequences ... (1883 - 1950) + Efficiency (not reduced budgets) Accelerated Innovation + Agility Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001) Certainty
  18. 18. ... these impacts Ubiquity Software Less Visible Platform increase as you move to higher Infrastructure order systems ... Stronger Accelerated Innovation Big Data Mash-ups Certainty
  19. 19. Ubiquity Transition Confusion Governance Trust Security Transparency Outsourcing Suitability Disruption Competition Lock-in Relationships Second Source Skills Control Political Capital Investment ... but evolution also creates standard risks ... Certainty
  20. 20. ... then again you Ubiquity Market have no choice ... Pay per use ure Focus on core ss Pre Prof. Van Valen Economies of scale “Red Queen Hypothesis” Speed to market The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to a You surrounding ecosystem Transition Costs Vs Operational Disadvantage Certainty
  21. 21. Consumerization ... and sometimes this can impact you from an outside ecosystem ... Enterprise Ecosystem Aggresive commoditisation Consumer Ecosystem
  22. 22. Ubiquity Disruptive to Existing Vendors Effect make originate outside competitive ecosystem + Efficiency (not reduced budgets) ... but in general ... Accelerated Innovation + Agility Reduced Barriers to Entry in other industries Certainty
  23. 23. ... of course, organisations deal with Frequency many activities and hence they have a shape ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  24. 24. Frequency Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standard Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipity Procedural Worth CODB Chaotic Linear ... the extremes of which have Innovation different properties ... Custom built Product Commodity
  25. 25. ... evolution in effect creates a Frequency virtuous circle ... Commoditisation User & Supply Competition Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  26. 26. H. Pixii, 1832 National Grid, ‘30s Turing ‘36 PowerEdge, ‘02 IBM 650, ‘54 Z3 ‘41 Amazon EC2 ‘06 Siebel SIS ’94 DBM ’80s Customer Salesforce ’02 (10.6%) Centric ‘70s ... which we all MyDex ‘08 experience ... VRM ‘06 Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  27. 27. Chaotic Transition Linear Lists Siebel SIS ’94 Customer DBM ’80s Salesforce ’02 Centric ‘70s ... of course, as an activity evolves, its characteristics change ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  28. 28. Frequency 6 Sigma ... which is why one size doesn't fit all ... Reduce Reduce Deviation Deviation Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  29. 29. ... ditto ... Frequency Agile Encourages Deviation Encourages Deviation Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  30. 30. VS Survival Tomorrow Survival Today Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. ... there are no Salaman & Storey viable magic Innovation ... Custom built bullets Product Commodity
  31. 31. ... and typical 1. One size fits all problems are caused by trying to use 2. But it worked for them? bullets ... magic 3. Outsourcing failures. ... your methods 4. Business Alignment. need to adapt as the activity 5. Management Yo-Yo's. evolves ... 6. Innovation vs Efficiency. Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  32. 32. Grow Die Competitor Your Compete Company Evolve ... and your company Consume is more like an Produce organism competing Reproduce in an ecosystem ... Business Environment Competitor
  33. 33. ... you have energy stores, actors and activities ... Agents Capital Financial Physical Activities Human Social ... and everything is in flux ...
  34. 34. DANGER! Complexity DANGER! ... which is why management is complex ...
  35. 35. Frequency Chaotic Transition Linear ... to fully manage how activities evolve you need to understand both consumption and Consume production perspective ... Produce Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  36. 36. ... and how consumption Frequency Chaotic Transition of an activity can co- Linear evolve with production ... Architecture (how we consume) and infrastructure (what we Best Architectural Practice consume) co-evolve (scale-up, N+1) Infrastructure Consume Cynefin Novel Practice (distributed Best Practice system, design for failure) Produce Infrastructure Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  37. 37. ... and how a new activty Frequency Chaotic Transition Linear (novel practice) can create an operational advantage ... Raw Old Best Practice Ingredients Furnace & Grinding Consume Float Glass Novel Practice Produce Operational Advantage Window Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  38. 38. .... with this we can identify what practices fit ... Frequency Experiment ROI Best Practice Customer Adapt Standardise Focus Take Risks Avoid Risk Market Driven Fail Quick Price vs QoS Network Ecosystem Regiment Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  39. 39. No, I don't know its ROI .... and why we go wrong ...
  40. 40. .... and why we can't avoid gambling (uncertainty), despite Lifecycle ... our best efforts ... = hypecycle + Value Curve ... creates expectation curve
  41. 41. ... because advantage only occurs before the "slope of enlightenment" ... Ad van tag + e+ e- tag - =N ull van tage A dvan Ad
  42. 42. ... but we can exploit these relationship to create more effective patterns of Commoditise Undifferentiated organisation ... to Utility Services Innovate Worth ∝ 1 Certainty Leverage Adoption (Ecosystem) Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  43. 43. Innovate Adapt Experiment Leverage to identify future patterns Take Risks Customer Market Focus Driven Network Best Practice Commoditise Price vs Standardise QoS ... we see these patterns in the cloud ... enable next wave
  44. 44. + High rates of Innovation Speed + Reduced cost of gamble + Efficiency (identify & commoditise) ... and new factors appear Size to be critical (increases innovation) for success ... Feed (Sustain)
  45. 45. ... but cloud isn't just about new patterns. Utility As competition crosses a Service boundary it is almost always disruptive ... Always disruptive A B Sometimes disruptive Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  46. 46. "Success is a lousy teacher" Bill Gates ... because past success creates inertia barriers to change ... Personal Success AMZN not encumbered by Organisation previous business models in Institutional Markets infrastructure Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  47. 47. ... and in this disruptive phase, new tactical games are also being played ... Core (CRM) ILC Barrier to Entry Social CRM differential Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  48. 48. ... including Tower (new core revenue) & Moat (area devoid of differential value with high barriers to entry) ... Tower Moat Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  49. 49. ... the use of open source as a tactical weapon ... Infrastructure aims to create a competitive marketplace with a larger ecosystem Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  50. 50. Broker Exchange Assurance ... even side stepping an oncoming barrier ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  51. 51. Steve Jobs Jeff Bezos Creative Disruptive Leadership Leadership ... which leads to the question of leadership ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  52. 52. ... even when factors are in place & benefits are clear, it's not only Factors vendor inertia which slows the change ... + Efficiency Vendors Success + Innovation + Agility Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  53. 53. Transition Disruption ... but customer inertia Outsourcing through perceived risks ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  54. 54. ... so activities often Pressure build up behind these barriers until breached by an organisation not encumbered by Cluster previous models initiating a flood of Resistance disruption, a state of war, ... disruption / war Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  55. 55. Creative Leadership Disruptive Leadership disruption / war margin / peace growth / build ... one of three states:- Build (creative leadership), Peace (margin), Innovation Custom built War Product (disruptive Commodity leadership)
  56. 56. ... each with different characteristics i.e. those inertia barriers are beneficial in the state of Peace ... Margin Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  57. 57. ... and the largest examples of these state changes can be seen as K-Waves ... Margin Disruption Growth
  58. 58. "War" CEO "Peace" CEO "Build" ... this leads some to talk about "Peacetime" vs "Wartime" CEO ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  59. 59. Frequency ... but large organisations produce many activities and hence have multiple fronts many in different state (build / peace / war) ... Consume Produce Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  60. 60. IT Frequency ... the situation is only made Admin more complex by how we organise ourselves (generally by Business type of activity i.e. business / IT ) ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  61. 61. ... and attempts to create homogenous structures ... Lifecycle Lifecycle We are IT. Lifecycle
  62. 62. Experiment ... from people who Take Risks themselves have Lifecycle different characteristics ... Network Lifecycle Pioneer Lifecycle
  63. 63. Best Practice Avoid Risk Lifecycle ... polar opposites ... Regiment Lifecycle Town Planners Lifecycle
  64. 64. Lifecycle ROI ... creating structures with Experiment internal conflict Best Practice Lifecycle that are further highlighted by virtual teams ... Lifecycle
  65. 65. Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Frequency ... Hence, by organising along lifecycle (innovation, custom built, product, commodity), not only does evolution become clear ... Consume Produce Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  66. 66. ... and management is one of controlling flows and barriers ... Town Pioneers Planners Settlers Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  67. 67. Pioneers Settlers Town Planners "War" "Peace" "Build" ... even the phases should become more controllable ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  68. 68. Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Creative Disruptive Leadership Leadership ... and the right styles of leadership can be applied ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  69. 69. Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Frequency Experiment ROI Best Practice Customer Adapt Standardise Focus Take Risks Avoid Risk ... along with the right Market Driven Fail Quick methods Price vs QoS ... Network Ecosystem Regiment Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  70. 70. Pioneers Innovate Settlers Leverage Town Planners Commoditise ... the right patterns ...
  71. 71. Pioneers Settlers Town Planners Broker Exchange Assurance ... enabling more effective tactical plays ... Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  72. 72. 1. One size fits all ... and avoiding the mistakes of the 2. But it worked for them? past ... 3. Outsourcing failures. 4. Business Alignment. 5. Management Yo-Yo's. 6. Innovation vs Efficiency. Innovation Custom built Product Commodity
  73. 73. ... problem is, doing this makes management hard ... Requisite Variety The system must be able to equal the number of states in the input with at least an equivalent number of states in the regulatory process Ashby’s Law Solutions. Either a) Make Management complex b) Pretend everything is the same.
  74. 74. ... BUT the process of simplification (e.g. one size fits all, KPIs everywhere) only works if we all agree to do this (therefore no-one gains an advantage) ... Same We suck at management here
  75. 75. ... fortunately we don't live in a world of ... Situation Normal, Everything Stays the Same. Leading Edge Forum March 2011
  76. 76. ... but ... Situation Normal, Everything Must Change Leading Edge Forum March 2011
  77. 77. ... here we looked at how different organisation can exploit these factors to their advantage ... Summary ... ... if you weren't there, you missed it ... and no, there's no video, book or whitepaper because ...
  78. 78. ... I might be a "researcher", talk about the tactical use of open source & give conference talks on how to disrupt others but in reality ... swardley@csc.com twitter : @swardley ... I'm an arms dealer in organisational tactics and management weaponry aka organisational warfare. ... this presentation is just basics. Leading Edge Forum March 2011
  • angelaboyd2008

    Nov. 14, 2017
  • tetradian

    Sep. 14, 2016
  • isaacraythomas

    Jun. 18, 2016
  • RayHebert

    Nov. 19, 2015
  • keff

    Aug. 10, 2015
  • ianakelly

    Jan. 14, 2015
  • gumption

    Feb. 3, 2012
  • thinkscientist

    Oct. 4, 2011
  • liu_xiao_jun

    Aug. 8, 2011
  • toutantic

    Aug. 7, 2011
  • nxhack

    Aug. 3, 2011
  • cvlorenzo

    Aug. 3, 2011
  • sscullion

    Aug. 2, 2011
  • krishnan

    Aug. 2, 2011

A very rough and extremely condensed summary of my three hour OSCON 2011 tutorial on business evolution, cloud, new forms of organisational patterns, tactics, and competition.

Views

Total views

7,817

On Slideshare

0

From embeds

0

Number of embeds

1,865

Actions

Downloads

160

Shares

0

Comments

0

Likes

14

×