Presentation at FSF in Apr'10

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Commoditisation, Innovation - General themes

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Presentation at FSF in Apr'10

  1. 1. Situation normal, everything must change
  2. 2. Simon Wardley
  3. 3. DANGER! Will Robinson DANGER!
  4. 4. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  5. 5. Pain
  6. 6. Pain No. Slides
  7. 7. Pain 10 slides OK No. Slides
  8. 8. 182 slides Severe Pain risk of harm OK No. Slides
  9. 9. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
  10. 10. Cloud Computing?
  11. 11. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
  12. 12. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  13. 13. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  14. 14. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  15. 15. Disruptive shift of the computing stack to online services.
  16. 16. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  17. 17. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  18. 18. £10,000 please. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  19. 19. Image from Oliver Twist
  20. 20. 67 definitions
  21. 21. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
  22. 22. 182 slides Severe Pain risk of harm OK No. Slides
  23. 23. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  24. 24. No definition
  25. 25. Commoditisation
  26. 26. Commoditisation What is Cloud
  27. 27. Commoditisation What is Cloud Cloud Myths
  28. 28. Ubiquity
  29. 29. Ubiquity Certainty
  30. 30. Ubiquity Certainty
  31. 31. Ubiquity Certainty
  32. 32. Ubiquity Innovation Certainty
  33. 33. Ubiquity Commodity Certainty
  34. 34. Ubiquity Utility Services Certainty
  35. 35. Ubiquity Innovation of early lists, 1980. Certainty
  36. 36. Ubiquity Custom built, DB Marketing Mid 80s Certainty
  37. 37. Ubiquity Product Early 90s Certainty
  38. 38. Utility Services Ubiquity of Salesforce Certainty
  39. 39. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  40. 40. Ubiquity Innovation of Z3, 1941 Certainty
  41. 41. Ubiquity Custom Built LEO, 1946 Certainty
  42. 42. Ubiquity Products IBM 650, 1954 Certainty
  43. 43. Ubiquity Commodity Hardware Certainty
  44. 44. Utility services Ubiquity of Amazon EC2 Certainty
  45. 45. Ubiquity Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821 Certainty
  46. 46. Ubiquity Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  47. 47. Utility Services Ubiquity of the National Grid Certainty
  48. 48. Ubiquity Certainty
  49. 49. Ubiquity io n at it is o d m m Co Certainty
  50. 50. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  51. 51. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  52. 52. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
  53. 53. Ubiquity Demand Certainty
  54. 54. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  55. 55. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
  56. 56. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  57. 57. Ubiquity Demand Improvement Certainty
  58. 58. Ubiquity Demand io n at it is o d m m Co Improvement Certainty
  59. 59. Ubiquity Utility Service Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  60. 60. Ubiquity Early Utility Westinghouse, 1890s Product Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  61. 61. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Certainty
  62. 62. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Certainty
  63. 63. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty
  64. 64. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (componentisation) Certainty
  65. 65. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  66. 66. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  67. 67. Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  68. 68. Ubiquity lu e Va in g o d E r Certainty
  69. 69. Ubiquity lu e Va in g o d E r Enables Innovation Certainty
  70. 70. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Certainty
  71. 71. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Enables Innovation Search Certainty
  72. 72. Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  73. 73. Rate of evolution of a system is dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems. Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  74. 74. Application
  75. 75. Application Database Framework Messaging
  76. 76. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  77. 77. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  78. 78. Application Orders of Magnitude CPU
  79. 79. Ubiquity Accelerates Innovation Certainty
  80. 80. Ubiquity Innovation Flemming Valve, 1904 Certainty
  81. 81. Ubiquity Products Intel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971 Certainty
  82. 82. Busicom
  83. 83. Busicom MCS-4
  84. 84. Busicom Co-Evolution MCS-4
  85. 85. Greater > 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 consumption 1
  86. 86. 0.0002c $700 Reduced cost per unit
  87. 87. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (componentisation) Certainty
  88. 88. Ubiquity Accelerated Innovation Greater consumption Reduced cost per unit Certainty
  89. 89. Ubiquity Disruptive Certainty
  90. 90. Transition Ubiquity Certainty
  91. 91. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Certainty
  92. 92. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Certainty
  93. 93. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Trust Certainty
  94. 94. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Trust Security Certainty
  95. 95. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Trust Security Transparency Certainty
  96. 96. Outsourcing Ubiquity Certainty
  97. 97. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Certainty
  98. 98. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Certainty
  99. 99. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Lock-in Certainty
  100. 100. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Lock-in Second Source Certainty
  101. 101. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Lock-in Second Source Control Certainty
  102. 102. Transition Outsourcing Ubiquity Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  103. 103. Recap
  104. 104. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  105. 105. Ubiquity Demand Improvement Certainty
  106. 106. Ubiquity Certainty
  107. 107. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (componentisation) Certainty
  108. 108. Ubiquity Accelerated Innovation Reduced cost per unit Greater consumption Certainty
  109. 109. Ubiquity Disruptive Certainty
  110. 110. Transition Outsourcing Ubiquity Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  111. 111. Commoditisation What is Cloud
  112. 112. Ubiquity Certainty
  113. 113. Ubiquity Certainty
  114. 114. Ubiquity Widespread (Demand) Feature Complete (Improvement) Certainty
  115. 115. Ubiquity Certainty
  116. 116. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  117. 117. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  118. 118. Application Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  119. 119. Application Software Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  120. 120. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  121. 121. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure ... as a Service Certainty
  122. 122. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (componentisation) Certainty
  123. 123. Ubiquity Accelerated Innovation Reduced cost per unit Greater consumption Certainty
  124. 124. Previous Time (mins) New server 72,000 64 node 130,000 cluster
  125. 125. Previous Cloud Time Time (mins) (mins) New server 72,000 7 64 node 130,000 15 cluster
  126. 126. Ubiquity Disruptive ... as a Product Certainty
  127. 127. Transition Outsourcing Ubiquity Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  128. 128. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  129. 129. Commoditisation What is Cloud Cloud Myths
  130. 130. You have choice! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  131. 131. Ubiquity Market You Certainty
  132. 132. Ubiquity Market Competitive Gap You Certainty
  133. 133. Ubiquity Market Pay per use Focus on core Economies of scale Speed to market Accelerated innovation You Reduced cost Certainty
  134. 134. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  135. 135. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  136. 136. http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
  137. 137. Ubiquity Market re ssu Pre You Certainty
  138. 138. “Red Queen Hypothesis” The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to a surrounding ecosystem Prof. Van Valen
  139. 139. Benefits vs Risks
  140. 140. It’s Green! It’ll reduce your IT spend. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  141. 141. Ubiquity Reduced cost (per unit) Pay per use (utility) Economies of scale (volume operations) Certainty
  142. 142. efficiency
  143. 143. Ubiquity Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  144. 144. consumption efficiency
  145. 145. “Jevons Paradox” Technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase the rate of consumption of that resource. William Stanley Jevons, 1865
  146. 146. Standards don’t matter Who cares about standards? http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  147. 147. Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  148. 148. Payroll HR Systems CRM ERP Sales Automation Infrastructure Finance & Accounting
  149. 149. Cost of doing Ubiquity HR Payroll business Certainty
  150. 150. Cost of doing Ubiquity HR Payroll business Min. Strategic value Certainty
  151. 151. Ubiquity HR Payroll Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Certainty
  152. 152. Gain competitive advantage by customising your payroll system http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  153. 153. Ubiquity Now Way back when ... Certainty
  154. 154. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Certainty
  155. 155. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty
  156. 156. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  157. 157. “The challenge of the Computer Utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966
  158. 158. All IT is the SLAs are same! what count! Standards It’s about don’t matter technology Cloud is an Only public cloud is cloud Innovation computing! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  159. 159. Ubiquity Private Public Certainty
  160. 160. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  161. 161. Ubiquity Transition Governance Trust Security Certainty
  162. 162. Easy Switching (low exit)
  163. 163. Alternatives (functioning market)
  164. 164. Access (Open API / Data formats)
  165. 165. Interop. (running code, reference model)
  166. 166. Proprietary Open Source
  167. 167. Public cloud Private cloud Amazon EC2 Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EC2 API Ubuntu Server Edition Physical (bare bones) ubuntu.com/cloud
  168. 168. Recap
  169. 169. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  170. 170. Ubiquity Disruptive ... as a Product Certainty
  171. 171. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (componentisation) Certainty
  172. 172. All IT is the SLAs are same! what count! You have choice Standards It’s about It’s green don’t matter technology and will save you money Cloud is an Innovation Only public cloud is cloud computing! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  173. 173. Benefits vs Risks
  174. 174. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  175. 175. Proprietary Open Source
  176. 176. Situation normal, everything must change
  177. 177. Thank you www.ubuntu.com/cloud simon.wardley@canonical.com twitter: swardley

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